Russian special military operation in Ukraine #45

But of course they would.
Kim's sister repeated that several times, that Korea stands side by side and will help in whatever they can.
Try to imagine the ammo stocks for a country with paranoia on pair with NK ... I lack the imagination, honestly

But why lie... it is not illegal to violate unilateral western sanctions against anyone... according to international law these western sanctions are illegal.

BTW it is not paranoia when the whole western world IS out to get you...

Not only is it not Paranoia, it is fully justified common sense.

I am also not saying Russia would refuse help from other countries, I just want some evidence and ships leaving for Russia from South Africa or aircraft flying from Iran to Russia or trainloads of stuff going from China to Russia just doesn't cut it as evidence.

The west makes all sorts of claims with no evidence at all and I don't think anyone should accept that pathetic level of trust.

Iran supplies munitions, perhaps not only Iran. They can lie, but that doesn't change the fact. It is in the interests of Iran, China, and most of Asia that Russia wins over NATO in Ukraine.

So you are supporting western claims over what Russia and Iran have said... what level of proof are you going for... probably... or the always amusing... highly likely...

There is a western story about a boy who cried wolf... ironic because the west continually demands everyone ignore the lessons of that story because although they lie a lot in the past this time it is the truth...

- Russia still not delivering those SU-35s to Iran; and apparently Iran not making fuzz about it.

Assuming it is true I rather doubt the Iranians want to broadcast such things because they wont be safe until they are in Iran and fully operational at an airbase with sufficient air defences to protect it from Israeli or US attack.

- Ukraine actually being able to blow the dam; e.g. Russia allowing Ukraine to even get close to it.

Ukraine had been hitting it multiple times over a long period with HIMARS and other weapon types.... they control the dams further up stream and kept the water levels very high... most likely to try to break the dam... it is unclear whether they attacked it or it just failed because of existing damage and too much water.

Either way the failure was on them.

- US still not going all-in given their economic situation; this is do or die for them. I already expected F-16s, although older spec. despite receiving heavy losses when facing Russian air defense.

Will take a while to train pilots to a level where it would be even worth sending them into Ukraine airspace, and more importantly most Ukrainian airfields would not support F-16 operations... too many foreign objects on the runways... not enough air conditioned hangars, not enough support equipment etc etc...

- The vulnerability of Russian helicopters (and jets) against Western manpads. Maybe I expect too much from the active defense systems; perhaps expected them to easily jam or guide them away given Russia's advances in these areas.

I rather suspect most of the losses were not MANPADS and will be other weapon types including BUK and OSA and even just cannon fire to which no aircraft would be immune.

The threat levels of Ukraine are far higher than over Kosovo for instance, where the HATO forces refused to send any of their amazing and high tech attack helicopters.

There was a serious absence of modern MANPADS in most theatres western helicopters have operated in and the exceptions are places they don't deploy their aircraft.

Those thermals are a higher level.

Very short missile flight time... I suspect they were attacking targets at much shorter ranges than other videos that seem to be at 8 to 10km range.

That was 3km from target, it seems they don’t even have MANPAD teams to defend themselves

Or it was fitted with DIRCMS and didn't care about MANPADS...

Over the next 10 days the Kiev regime is going to throw everything they have in reserve, some 70% of offensive force, at Russian defensive lines, in multiple axes at once.

They have glide bomb kits and also Smerch batteries able to launch enormous volumes of fragments at large groups of men and vehicles... Russia has been expecting these probing attacks and also a follow up large attack... that is what Kiev did last time and it only worked a little last time because the Russian forces were so thinly spread with lots of gaps.

Now they have lots of artillery and lots of drones and of course air power, this is going to be a slaughter.

But Zelensky doesn't care... the cry remains the same... if you want us to beat the bear we need more money in our swiss bank accounts and more ammo and artillery and Javelin... no stinger... no HIMARS... no this time it is F-16s that will solve all their problems... it is funny they never ask for mine clearance equipment...

Video of the uparmoured Leo.

It appears to not only be trying to improve protection, but to also disguise it as a Soviet era tank...

I would have loved to have mentioned FOAB but sadly we haven't seen it,

To be fair we have seen the equivalent where a drone or missile set off more explosives and fuel on the ground that the FOABs carries so essentially we have seen the effect.

Quite intriguing that Russia has stepped up the production of tanks because most of the damages being caused to the enemy forces is by Russian artillery. Even Ukrainian tanks are being destroyed by Russian artillery and not Russian tanks.

In fact we have not witnessed a major tank vs tank battle yet.

The western view of tanks is something you send to fight the enemies tanks, but the Russian view is more along the lines of it being a mobile powerful direct fire gun that takes out enemy positions and vehicles as needed.

Normal ammo loadouts normally include at least half being HE or HEAT rounds.

Once the next big offensive burns out their reserves the Russians might need to advance deep into Ukrainian territory to push the reminants of enemy forces out of artillery range of the new Russian territories... and of course once they do push them back 150km beyond new Russian territories the locals might want to have a referendum about whether they remain with Kiev or join Russia or be neutral... if they want to be neutral that is fine but Russia will need to provide security guarantees and Kiev might just shell them for not taking their side which means the Russians will have to push Kievs forces back another 150km... eventually they will likely reach borders with other countries where they will stop, but of course artillery fire coming from a foreign country is an act of war and up to that country to deal with or Russia will deal with that too.

Why are they turning into heavy armoured ones when:

RuAF has already established air dominance; and

Russian artillery is ripping through Ukrainian tank formation

Existing Russian strategy extremely effective already.

Normally tanks are used to break through enemy lines in multiple locations and to push back and destroy rear area units and HQ and arms and ammo dumps and supply areas etc etc to cut front line units off from support so they can be destroyed or captured.

Has more to do with NATO than 404.

Could be that too.

Seems that the west is starting to question the value for money it is getting from this conflict and realising they could continue to pour money down this drain for a very long time... this was all supposed to break Russia and make Putin unpopular and start opposition, but it has only made Russia stronger and madder at the loss of its men... and winter is coming...

Russia has learned to use drones effectively in combat and is getting rather more capable at a time when western countries are sending all their stocks of ammo and weapons to Kiev to be destroyed or sold on the black market.

Analysis Storm Shadov vs Pantsir S1

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-storm-shadow-interception?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

NAFO anal-itic.

Most ATGM's have a higher speed so what exactly is he comparing it with?

Apples and Banana-ficusses.

Mir wrote:@Werewolf
This is what he compares the speed of the Storm Shadow with...make sure you're seated.

Did you see how fast that comes in? That’s extremely fast for a cruise missile. In fact, that more closely resembles footage of Iskander missile hits I’ve posted before.

He goes further...

In fact, you’ll note that the Storm Shadow’s speed more closely resembles the legendary Soviet Kh-22, seen here hitting Kremenchug last year:

 

You quote a standard level of NAFO breed expert in anal-itics.
Don't mean the Werewolf

The alcoholic guy broadcasting from his closet?
Yeah, I buy him all way long