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Prigozhin mutiny thread

Arkanghelsk

Arkanghelsk: Posts : 3865
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Post n°251

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

Arkanghelsk Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:18 pm

Wagner keeps going to Moscow

If the government does not take action it has only itself to blame for being overthrown

It's madness to me the passivity of the Kremlin

It's open for everyone to watch , the whole world is just watching and they are making this play for everyone

Karl Haushofer

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Post n°252

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

Karl Haushofer Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:20 pm

mr_hd wrote:Russian vulnerabilities are now open to all world to see, there is no chance anymore to be hidden.
And war in Ukraine triggered power shift behind the scenes and everything went over edge. Russia is overstretched and deeply divided. And regime that Putin build last 15 years means security, intelligence, army, all pillars of the state are without head and this Wagner idiot is just walking through Russia with very careful plan for power grab. Putin failed and gambled huge historical chance to stabilize, modernize and integrate Russia on world stage. He concentrated too much power in his hands and now we see result of it. World leaders must now by all means support Putin and do whatever he needs to crush this rebellion and keep peace in Russia. War torn Russia would be nightmare for all world, no one sane wish that.

I doubt this.

Many people in the West would prefer to see Russian weakened and in chaos.

Karl Haushofer

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Post n°253

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

Karl Haushofer Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:21 pm

Arkanghelsk wrote:Wagner keeps going to Moscow

If the government does not take action it has only itself to blame for being overthrown

It's madness to me the passivity of the Kremlin

It's open for everyone to watch , the whole world is just watching and they are making this play for everyone

Could it be that the army is not taking orders from Putin and the Kremlin anymore?

mnztr

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Post n°254

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

mnztr Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:23 pm

At this point I am wondering if the coup is really Shoigu over Putin and Prigozhin is backing Shoigu. This is why the military has not stopped Prigozhin.

flamming_python

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Post n°255

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

flamming_python Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:24 pm

mr_hd wrote:Russian vulnerabilities are now open to all world to see, there is no chance anymore to be hidden.
And war in Ukraine triggered power shift behind the scenes and everything went over edge. Russia is overstretched and deeply divided. And regime that Putin build last 15 years means security, intelligence, army, all pillars of the state are without head and this Wagner idiot is just walking through Russia with very careful plan for power grab. Putin failed and gambled huge historical chance to stabilize, modernize and integrate Russia on world stage. He concentrated too much power in his hands and now we see result of it. World leaders must now by all means support Putin and do whatever he needs to crush this rebellion and keep peace in Russia. War torn Russia would be nightmare for all world, no one sane wish that.

There is no power shift and Prigozhin has no power and no backing. Executive power is all in the Kremlin and always will be while Moscow remains the capital of Russia. And given these facts, Prigozhin wouldn't even be dumb enough to try a stunt like this one in earnest, no matter how desperate or sidelined from the Kremlin he might be.
And in those periods of Russian history when the authorities were overthrown, any successful challenge always came from a rival faction in the capital as well. The Bolsheviks in Petrograd, Yeltsin in Moscow. Any revolt started outside the capital such as Pugachev's uprising or Stepan Razin's ultimately went nowhere. I guess with the exception of Minin and Pozharsky's campaign against the false Tsar in 1612. Again, Prigozhin wouldn't be unaware of Russia's history, he's not a stupid fellow by any means.

This is why half of Russia's population is just bemused or at best a little dumbfounded. Because we understand the general dynamics of our own country and our political system, elites and so on at least on an intuitive level if not academically.

Foreigners don't, hence why they're all running around like headless chickens and proclaiming civil war in Russia, or a 'power shift', or whatever.

Last edited by flamming_python on Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:28 pm; edited 1 time in total

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mr_hd

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Post n°256

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

mr_hd Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:26 pm

Karl Haushofer wrote:

mr_hd wrote:Russian vulnerabilities are now open to all world to see, there is no chance anymore to be hidden.
And war in Ukraine triggered power shift behind the scenes and everything went over edge. Russia is overstretched and deeply divided. And regime that Putin build last 15 years means security, intelligence, army, all pillars of the state are without head and this Wagner idiot is just walking through Russia with very careful plan for power grab. Putin failed and gambled huge historical chance to stabilize, modernize and integrate Russia on world stage. He concentrated too much power in his hands and now we see result of it. World leaders must now by all means support Putin and do whatever he needs to crush this rebellion and keep peace in Russia. War torn Russia would be nightmare for all world, no one sane wish that.

I doubt this.

Many people in the West would prefer to see Russian weakened and in chaos.

You can believe in that, however West is also much weaker now than 15-20 years ago, we almost had coup in US not long ago and there are deep social and political issues with lack of any gifted and strong leadership.... If things go bad in Russia and chaos grows further West would be powerless to contain it let alone to control it, Russia is simply way to large.

Last edited by mr_hd on Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:29 pm; edited 1 time in total

mr_hd

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Post n°257

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

mr_hd Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:29 pm

flamming_python wrote:This is why half of Russia's population is just bemused or at best a little dumbfounded. Because we understand the general dynamics of our own country and our political system, elites and so on at least on an intuitive level if not academically.

Foreigners don't, hence why they're all running around like headless chickens and proclaiming civil war in Russia, or a 'power shift', or whatever.

I hope you are right.

Sprut-B

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Post n°258

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

Sprut-B Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:31 pm

I hate to ring the alarm here, but this is a very bad situation for Russia's international reputation.This is not to be taken lightly.A coup never happens out of thin air.
What the hell was the FSB doing? Everyone thought Russia had the best intelligence, and yet this grand debacle Heads should be rolled in the FSB too for not being able to prevent this shitshow.

Shoigu and Gerasimov should have made public statements and come out clean; after all, this feud is about them. Prigozhin is a dick, and he has committed an unforgivable crime, but these two gentelmen are not angels either.They should have addressed grievances.Maybe it wouldn't have gotten to this point had they addressed the situation on time.
They are not unaccountable just because they're at the top of the military command.
If Surovikin, Kadyrov, Medvedev, and Putin could all come out and make public statements, why can't these two gentlemen?
I mean, Shoigu never served a day in the military. So he needs to get off his shiny high horse. Ignoring the situation and maintaining silence doesn't help in this situation.

It's not like they didn't see it coming. They're all aware of this resentment, but they choose to ignore it, just like they ignored the Maidan coup in Ukraine and let the Nazis takeover and build fortifications in Donbass.

Even ultra-Putin fans and apologists in the Duran have expressed their frustration at this situation. They've admitted that this time Putin and the Military leadership made a big blunder by not curtailing Prigo when he acted crazy in Bakhmut.

Of course, the first mistake was to create a private mercenary group, arm them to the teeth, and then let it loose. Who could have guessed what could go wrong? Russia was raising a venomous serpent, not a goat dog.

Such a thing could never happen in my country, nor in China, Cuba, or any other serious country.

The coup itself has a bad image internationally, but not being decisive is even worse.
The Russian National Guard has more than 300,000 personnel, so it could easily take over some 25,000 men, and not all of them are crazy traitors.
But Putin and the Military are too unsure of themselves to take serious action, aka kiling the traitors in spot.

Mistakes can be corrected later, but now it's time to act tough on this mutiny. otherwise, it would set a bad example.

Papa Dragon is right on the money this time. This is not the time to pussyfoot around. Kill Prigo and his loyalists and get it over quickly, ideally within 24 hours,
but it's unlikely to happen now, so maybe within the next couple of days. If not, there could be serious International consequences for Russia's reputation as a leader of a multipolar world view.

Nobody likes to do business with a politically unstable country, especially in the wake of Western sanctions and the threat of US military intervention.
If Russia can't keep track of its own country, then how could the global south expect Russia to protect them from the wrath of the US-led collective West?
Russia could experience real isolation if it doesn't play this well.

Now that shit has hit the roof, Russia should take some drastic actions.
First things first, they should impose total censorship on the media.
RT has done more harm than good with their uncontrolled vegu reporting, which gives a bad impression.
Why not ban the internet in the region where the rebellion has strong footing?
Believe me, It's effective. It's so much easier to crush disinformation and organised coups this way.
India, a democracy, would have done it in a heartbeat.
I am not even going to speculate on what countries like China, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia would have done here.

It's unthinkable for us that such things could happen in Russia.
Local Indian media channels have already begun to compare Russia with Pakistan and Myanmar.
Not just India, but other pro-Z countries are also in shock and disbelief.
This would not happen in politically stable countries like China, India, Cuba, etc.
Russia still has time, but it has to take tough actions against any hostility and reassure the global south that Russia's internal political stability is rock solid and there is no need to worry about any future political discontent inside Russia.

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flamming_python

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Post n°259

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

flamming_python Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:39 pm

Like I said, I don't understand the calculation with this whole affair either. To my mind, from any angle it wouldn't be worth it. Not in exchange for any amount of freshly revealed traitors or renewed Ukrainian suicide charges against Russian lines. Because the geostrategic and international damage and new propaganda ammunition for the West would be more significant than any of that. Any pretense of Russia being an island of stability or refugee for anyone fleeing the sinking West too. All sacrificed to the gutter.

But I am sure that it is precisely a Russian maneuver, not Prigozhin's actual deal with the NATO devil or a genuine bid to overthrow Putin or whatever. Even if I fail to understand the proposed benefit of it.

Last edited by flamming_python on Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Karl Haushofer

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Post n°260

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

Karl Haushofer Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:40 pm

Sprut-B wrote:
Russia still has time, but it has to take tough actions against any hostility and reassure the global south that Russia's internal political stability is rock solid and there is no need to worry about any future political discontent inside Russia.

I would not put anything past the Kremlin anymore. They could be the most incompetent bunch of people in charge of a major country that ever existed. Even the Yeltsin regime might have been more competent than this.

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sepheronx

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Post n°261

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

sepheronx Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:40 pm

It doesn't matter what other countries think. What matters is what Russia does. And so far, they aren't doing anything but letting their own country get taken over by a small mercenary force with zero resistance. So now Chechens are moving into Rostov. So what will happen? Chechens start killing Russians again?

Anyway, Putin fucked up badly here. Especially the MoD. I mean, a **** up worst than seen in African countries. The VDV can solve this rather quickly. They aren't being used. Instead everyone is sitting still doing nothing

Last edited by sepheronx on Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

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flamming_python

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Post n°262

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

flamming_python Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:42 pm

sepheronx wrote:It doesn't matter what other countries think. What matters is what Russia does. Amd so far, they aren't doing anything but letting their own country get taken over by a small mercenary force with zero resistance. So now Chechens are moving into Rostov. So what will happen? Chechens start killing Russians again?

Anyway, Putin fucked up badly here. Especially tue MoD. I mean, a **** up worst than seen in African countries. The VDV can solve this rather quickly. They aren't being used. Instead everyone is sitting still doing nothing

So then come to your conclusions as to why they aren't being used and why on the whole chessboard only the Wagner and Akhmat chess pieces are being moved.

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sepheronx

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Post n°263

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

sepheronx Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:44 pm

Not sure what to make of it. But whatever it is, isn't actually good for Russia as I can't figure out what the plan is. Let them kill each other?

Arsenic

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Post n°264

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

Arsenic Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:45 pm

We're starting to see images of a KA-52 "shot down by Wagner", there's even talk of an MI-35 and MI-8 shot down...and a downed IL-18 (22) aircraft....

Is this a Russian maneuver???

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mnztr

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Post n°265

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

mnztr Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:45 pm

At this point I am 80% convinced that Shoigu and Garasimov are behind this.

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sepheronx

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Post n°266

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

sepheronx Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:46 pm

Arsenic wrote:We're starting to see images of a KA-52 "shot down by Wagner", there's even talk of an MI-35 and MI-8 shot down...and a downed IL-18 (22) aircraft....

Is this a Russian maneuver???

No you aren't.

Those are old and unverified. Spread by people here. If it happened, then The Duran and Rybar would have reported it.

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mnztr

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Post n°267

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

mnztr Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:47 pm

flamming_python wrote:

sepheronx wrote:It doesn't matter what other countries think. What matters is what Russia does. Amd so far, they aren't doing anything but letting their own country get taken over by a small mercenary force with zero resistance. So now Chechens are moving into Rostov. So what will happen? Chechens start killing Russians again?

Anyway, Putin fucked up badly here. Especially tue MoD. I mean, a **** up worst than seen in African countries. The VDV can solve this rather quickly. They aren't being used. Instead everyone is sitting still doing nothing

So then come to your conclusions as to why they aren't being used and why on the whole chessboard only the Wagner and Akhmat chess pieces are being moved.

Only theory I have is Shoigu and Garasimov are behind it and that is only why the Akhmat are responding.

flamming_python

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Post n°268

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

flamming_python Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:50 pm

mnztr wrote:Only theory I have is Shoigu and Garasimov are behind it and that is only why the Akhmat are responding.

Behind what?

Shoigu and Gerasimov are bureaucrats who answer to Putin and the rest of the security council. They're not independent warlords with their own political ambitions.

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Arsenic

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Post n°269

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

Arsenic Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:51 pm

sepheronx wrote:

Arsenic wrote:We're starting to see images of a KA-52 "shot down by Wagner", there's even talk of an MI-35 and MI-8 shot down...and a downed IL-18 (22) aircraft....

Is this a Russian maneuver???

No you aren't.

Those are old and unverified. Spread by people here. If it happened, then The Duran and Rybar would have reported it.

I hope !

sepheronx

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Post n°270

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

sepheronx Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:54 pm

We will see when this is over. Whoever wins will be the correct side. Currently, Russia isn't doing too good with this rebellion. It's literally becoming a one sided battle.

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mnztr

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Post n°271

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

mnztr Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:54 pm

flamming_python wrote:

mnztr wrote:Only theory I have is Shoigu and Garasimov are behind it and that is only why the Akhmat are responding.

Behind what?

Shoigu and Gerasimov are bureaucrats who answer to Putin and the rest of the security council. They're not independent warlords with their own political ambitions.

How can you say for sure? They may be frustrated that Putin has been too soft

Hole

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Post n°272

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

Hole Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:55 pm

A few remarks:

First the bald cook snapped a few months back in Artemovsk. It took a few months to set up the meatgrinder, it worked fantastic and
suddenly the guy screams about not having enough ammo to take the city. After that he was reminded that taking the city was a distant
secondary target and he calmed down a little.
Now we are 14+ days into the "counter-offensive" with western equipment littering whole fields and catastrophic losses on the Ukro side, even
Ukro channels and western MSM starting to call the whole thing a fiasco, and suddenly the guy snaps again and claims the MoD is lying and the
leadership has to be replaced.
Sounds like a mentally stable dude. Suspect

I´m really shocked that there are people out there (and inside Russia) that think that this guy could be a better military planner than Stoneface Gerasimov.
Seriously? Rolling Eyes

The critic on Shoigu and Gerasimov is founded on some dumbasses on Telegram channels that have no clue about the military outside of "tank shots, things explode!!!"
Shoigu is the reason why Russia is capable of going to war (currently indirectly) with the whole of NATO. According to western experts the GPD of NATO countries is
20 times as large as that of Russia, but Russia produces more shells in a week than all of NATO in one month. Or even more.

But there is one thing about this "putsch" that is weird. For months we hear that the wet dream of the west is a insurrection or uprising in Russia to "win" the war
in 404. In the minute Russia is beating the shit out of western trained and equipped units in the great "counter-offensive" it is happening. With an advance warning
of maybe a day following more online rants of the cook. Which brings me to the question, did the authorities in Moscow let it happen to see who was willing to go
along with the putsch?

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sepheronx

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Post n°273

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

sepheronx Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:01 pm

In any case, the positions Russia set up in Moscow is pathetic.

And all Russian media is repeating same shit over and over again how Ukraine is gonna take this opportunity. Literally, they quote everyone including someone's grandma about it.

I'm honestly surprised by all this

Edit: im with some people here who are extremely concerned but also curious as to why the authorities aren't actually acting. Rybar said the same thing. Others said same thing. Lack of a real response.

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flamming_python

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Post n°274

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

flamming_python Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:14 pm

mnztr wrote:How can you say for sure? They may be frustrated that Putin has been too soft

Because Putin is the President and the Commander-in-Chief, this isn't some banana republic where anyone can do what they want, despite your underhanded attempts to portray it as such.

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Regular

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Post n°275

Re: Prigozhin mutiny thread

Regular Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:15 pm

I just hope that it will be end by tomorrow, no matter what outcome.
And I don’t see why Ukrainians are so happy. I would be shitting myself if I was Ukrainian as this could be precursor to another mobilisation and restart of Russian offensive actions

https://t.co/qd3SYhEiBK

“Prigozhin accepted Lukashenko proposal to stop the advance”

Minsk 3 clown

This can’t be real

Last edited by Regular on Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

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