Russian special military operation in Ukraine #46

Fennec_Radar
@RadarFennec
·
3h
What is honestly interesting about this recent offensive. Not just in how much territory was taken and how quickly compared to all the fighting the past months.

But rather, how quietly it is being handled. Not even the Russian MoD is blowing the victory trumpet over this.



Armchair Warlord
@ArmchairW
·
5h
The Russian Army just blasted open a 12-kilometer hole in the Ukrainian front line and captured more terrain in a week than Ukraine has in the last two months of their counteroffensive. This is part of a general Russian push in Lugansk north of the Seversky Donets river that has been going on for about the last two weeks. Smaller gains have been reported in the far north near Kupyansk as well as in the Serebryanski Forest along the river to the south.

It's noteworthy that "O Group" - the same Central Military District grouping that seized the Liman area last spring - has suddenly resurfaced in reporting from the front. They're probably quite familiar with the terrain.



This push started small, with a modest bridgehead forced over the Zherebets River (a small water obstacle along which part of the front has run for the last several months) around July 17th. The initial lodgment was tiny (about 2x2km), but the Russians kept up the pressure.



On July 19th - two days after establishing the initial bridgehead - the Russians forced another, smaller one a couple kilometers north. This gave them some additional room to work with and endangered Ukrainian positions now caught between the two pincers.



By July 22nd additional attacks had expanded the northern bridgehead about two kilometers west, to the point the crossing site was no longer under serious threat from direct fire. At this point the Ukrainian defenses in the area began buckling, despite reserves being sent in.



On July 23rd the Russians managed to link up both bridgeheads and start pushing west. Ukrainian forces began retreating as their flanks were exposed and they were threatened with encirclement.



The Russians forced another small bridgehead 5km north the next day.



This small bridgehead developed into a large thrust yesterday, gaining more terrain in a matter of hours than had been seized in the entire week long battle to that point. Although fierce fighting developed further south, there seems to have been little resistance to this attack.



I expect the Russians will continue developing this attack into a general push to the Oskol River, which will set conditions to easily move on eastern Kharkov and western Donetsk oblasts as the Ukrainian counteroffensive peters out.

Which, speaking of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it's noteworthy that the Ukrainians do not seem to have effectively responded to this breakthrough yet.

I suspect they have two interrelated problems:

1. Their most combat-capable brigades have been mauled during ongoing and very unsuccessful offensives in Zaporozhe and on the Bakhmut flanks. While there are probably a couple elite brigades in deep reserve (we haven't seen Challenger 2s yet), deploying them would uncover Kiev.

2. Their "line" brigades are by now filled with poor-quality conscripts and badly underequipped - the kind of units the Wehrmacht would classify as "fit only for defensive operations" where they can shelter in fixed fortifications. They will fare poorly in mobile warfare.

So how are the Russians doing this? I've seen no evidence of any new tactics or huge reserves introduced - they seem to be simply applying their now-well honed tactical methods on a large scale to seize lots of ground.

It's very noteworthy just how low-key and competently-done this attack has been thus far. There have been no movie trailers and no minefield traffic jams - just a methodical, silent push through the Ukrainian defensive line with, as near as I can tell, few Russian losses.

Would be typical for 404. Stuff looks solid, made of foam. 


Gains, gains, gains... 

ALAMO wrote:Jokes aside.
It can be some elements of decorations, made of PUR foam. Woudn't seek a conspiracy theory here. Sole fact that it was hit with 5V55 is good enough

You are probably correct but it has certainly generated some fun in SM.

Mats Nilsson
@mazzenilsson
.
3h
A fragment from the air of Sky News went viral on Twitter , where TV presenters with mournful faces lie about the strike of the Russian Armed Forces on the Odessa cathedral.

But there's a catch: In the footage cited as "evidence" in the background of the Odessa Cathedral, a woman is assembling heavy concrete slabs with one hand. In another, she also has a pile of concrete. Nervous laughter can be heard in the background.

What does it tell us? That women in Odessa are extremely strong?
No. This is not an old cathedral , it was built in 2002 by the Odessa Orthodox church to replace the old cathedral, which was pulled down in 1936.
being built during the Ukrainian times, it's not made from strong materials, it is most likely made from very light weight ones.

If it was the Russian X-22, that weighed 900 kg, as Zelensky lied, the Cathedral would have been destroyed completely- it was a Ukrainian air defence system rocket that damaged it. Styrofoam?

No fun in this comment. Where indeed has all the UA 'Soviet/Russian' gear gone, we seldom, if ever, see it now?

Global Thinker
@talkrealopinion
·
10h
Ukraine's army with own Soviet-era weapons is gone.

Ukraine's 2nd army with a mix of own Soviet-era weapons and Soviet-era weapons from NATO's old stocks is gone.

This is the last 3rd Ukraine's army with NATO armies weapons.

Col MacGregor has some interesting insights, this is on the nail.

COMBATE |
@upholdreality
·
7h
Ret. Col. Douglas Macgregor: "The message that Jake Sullivan and President Biden have sent to Moscow is 'Gentlemen, you're going to have to march west. Nothing will stop until you make it clear unambiguously that you've won.'

Unfortunately, that's what they're saying. These people are not reasonable. They're not rational. Anybody else would have said by now, no more death. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are dying... but there's no humanity in these people. They don't care"

A whole of 404 was made of shit and sticks.
I watch closely vlogs from Mariopol, showing its reconstruction.
What is mindblowing, is a fact how small things are being presented by the locals as some milestones equal to wonders of the world only.
A lane, or a square, or a kids playground.
It is because they haven't seen any investment in social civil infrastructure for the entire 30 years of Ukro rule. Or occupation?!?
While driving along the coast where the city beaches are located, what is piercing the eyes is a horrible condition of roads. No fukin' pavements along the entire city limits beach, imagine that.
People from Mariopol are visiting nearby Krasnodar or Rostow, and stand with jars dropped of how a modern Russian city looks like. What does a civil communal infrastructure means? How the recreation areas are constructed, and how much attention is paid to people's comfort and well-being. Fine, both are Russian milionniki, with a population 1mln+, still Mariopol was quite a big, with half a million inhabitants, city. It is a different galaxy.

JohninMK wrote:

This is the last 3rd Ukraine's army with NATO armies weapons.

That is why psyops project like Oryx ceased to exists, as it was impossible to lie and fool the people now. Shitheads like The Sun still try, showing destruction of Leopards done by Lancets, but they are now being caught red handed by their own audience.

JohninMK wrote:No fun in this comment. Where indeed has all the UA 'Soviet/Russian' gear gone, we seldom, if ever, see it now?

Global Thinker
@talkrealopinion
·
10h
Ukraine's army with own Soviet-era weapons is gone.

Ukraine's 2nd army with a mix of own Soviet-era weapons and Soviet-era weapons from NATO's old stocks is gone.

This is the last 3rd Ukraine's army with NATO armies weapons.

According to Macgregor Ukraine has around 35,000 reserves left. That means its 3rd army is about spent. They lost 26,000 in their overhyped
"counter-offensive" over less than 2 months.

@ALAMO

But the average Ukr citizens has been brainwashed to think that conditions in Russia are worse. So Ukr non-investment in rotting
infrastructure is better than brand new Russian infrastructure. The lack of iodine in Ukraine's soil and the lack of it in the diet of
Ukrs is really showing in their joke IQ.

It's not just Ukros who believe that Russia is rotting under Putin.
Nearly all liberals even from Russia are believing and repeating this lie. Moldovan liberals the same and I was in Moldovia in Chisinau. The very funny thing is Moldovians describe Pridnistrovie as some super backward Soviet like State but they have less filth, better infrastructure and the people are friendlier. The minds of people through their hate are distorted. So many people are part of the lost generation that will never become part of a functioning reality.

If you tell a Russian that the 90's had been some super times economically and "freedom"-wise then all of them would call you nuts and some might even punch you for such words, but here the liberals come to Germany and tell exactly these kind of lies.

That is a goal of propaganda, isn't it?
To make people thing otherwise. Forgot what is in their interest. Make them care of irrelevant things rather than really important. Spoil views and opinions. Create an opinion that majority thinks ... this way or the other.
That is why 80% of tweets are fakes and boot made.

@Werewolf

This sort of mental dysfunction points to underlying brain issues. Believing absurdities that are easily disproven is not normal brain
function. These people are inadequate and they realize this subconsciously. So their reaction is to project hate on their own
society and fantasy goodness on the "other". These head cases should all move on over to their projection utopia and live it up.

BTW, a recent study has found a significant correlation between woke-ness and low IQ. I am not surprised.

If it was the Russian X-22, that weighed 900 kg, as Zelensky lied, the Cathedral would have been destroyed completely- it was a Ukrainian air defence system rocket that damaged it. Styrofoam?

To be clear the Kh-22M has a warhead that weighs about 930kgs, the entire missile is rather heavier... about 4-5 tons with fuel, which it no longer has when it arrives at its target, but almost one ton of explosive will do a lot of damage.

If you tell a Russian that the 90's had been some super times economically and "freedom"-wise then all of them would call you nuts and some might even punch you for such words, but here the liberals come to Germany and tell exactly these kind of lies.

Because the liberals are the thieves who were having a great time with their new American friends fleecing their country and its people during the 1990s... they loved Americans and America because together they were robbing another country and sharing the spoils... these are the only people around the world who love the west because they help them rob the locals whom they despise and think they are better than.

The basic tennants of propaganda are very well known and thoroughly researched and understood in the west and used over and over.

The core secrets of colonial power is to pick the stupid and the losers of a society and make them rich and powerful to control the majority. Once in power they will owe you their power and be completely loyal and enjoy punishing the rest of the population which up until the colonial power arrived did not treat them well at all.

Here you have some fantastic piece of what we are talking about. The best school of CNN juralism at it's best



They really consider their own audience so stupid that are openly commenting on the events opposite to what is really happening.

In the first part, all that Arab wedding ends up with perfectly nothing other than rounds self destructing in a distance.

In the second part, where he "want to show how they feel", we can see a combo of Arab wedding and clear sounds of missiles explosions on the ground, hitting its targets.

Tracer rounds are a bit old fashion aren't they?

Talk about giving away your location for the next drone or missile strike to aim at.

Ukro intel about russian strategic bombers is quite good. Having those bombers near ukraine allows easier HUMINT. They can see them take off from nearby cities. US satelittes also help.

This is also a reason to have more su-57+kh-59mk2/69. You can't predict cruise missile attacks while having 13 tu-95 airborne means very likely cruise missiles are coming in few hours allowing to get out of building and bases. Su-57 is hard to detect accross the front so having less range in your missiles is still good.

This is a direct lesson for russian nucleaar deternace. Their tupolevs can be tracked when taking off allowing to know more or less when and where they can be intercepted.

Mig-31D in Belarus is nothing better. Having them in a airport lost in the Urals would make their missions easier. They are also tracked when taking off.

@Garry

The funny thing is that it is not just idiots in the colonies that are installed into power. It appears that this is somehow happening in the colonizer states
as demonstrated by the retard grade hubris of NATzO elites in the last year.

F15E, F16, and F18 can all carry JASSM-ER

It would be good to design a similar missile for su34 and su30/35

UMPC bombs are good, but cannot effect that kind of range of JASSM-ER (1000km)

Kh59mk2 as per rosboronexport does not reach 1000km

Maybe expand the fuel capacity and the wingspan

Then VKS won't have to use bombers as much for these missions

ALAMO wrote:That is a goal of propaganda, isn't it?
To make people thing otherwise. Forgot what is in their interest. Make them care of irrelevant things rather than really important. Spoil views and opinions. Create an opinion that majority thinks ... this way or the other.
That is why 80% of tweets are fakes and boot made.

But that's the character of propaganda in every country. Yet in some places people can see right through it and in some others they can't. It's about what you are ready to allow yourself to believe, as much as it is about what you are told.

Propaganda does not excuse the people of a country themselves from having at least, a few independent brain cells to share between themselves

Isos wrote:Ukro intel about russian strategic bombers is quite good. Having those bombers near ukraine allows easier HUMINT. They can see them take off from nearby cities. US satelittes also help.

This is also a reason to have more su-57+kh-59mk2/69. You can't predict cruise missile attacks while having 13 tu-95 airborne means very likely cruise missiles are coming in few hours allowing to get out of building and bases. Su-57 is hard to detect accross the front so having less range in your missiles is still good.

This is a direct lesson for russian nucleaar deternace. Their tupolevs can be tracked when taking off allowing to know more or less when and where they can be intercepted.

Mig-31D in Belarus is nothing better. Having them in a airport lost in the Urals would make their missions easier. They are also tracked when taking off.

If they are not already doing it, the RuAF ought to consider taking off both the Tu95/22M and especially the Mig-31D on dummy launch runs. Or randomly use different airbases across Russia. This would sow confusion across Ukraine and wear down AD operators waiting for weapons that do not arrive, this includes NATO operatives who might have to track them.

I wonder if AWACs can track all the cruise missile types.

I'm pretty sure the Kh-101s are stealthy enough to be missed by NATO surveillance (AWACS etc), at the distances they operate at anyway.

Ukrainians say that the ongoing attack involves a lot of maneuvering missiles, ie significant course changes to throw  early warning off, too.

Anyway, always interesting to see random Ukrainians film these CMs pass overhead. They tend to sound quite jolly, as if they are hoping that each one will bring the Kievan regime closer to collapse and an end to the war.

The impression one gets is that a big chunk of residents in multiple major UA cities in the central parts are secretly pro-Russian, so to speak. Gestapo keeps them in check, but for how long?

Arkanghelsk wrote:
F15E, F16, and F18 can all carry JASSM-ER

It would be good to design a similar missile for su34 and su30/35

UMPC bombs are good, but cannot effect that kind of range of JASSM-ER (1000km)

The JASSM-ER is quite slow (subsonic) and probably has similar stealth capabilities as the Storm Shadow/SCALP.

It will be just another casualty of the long list of already departed wunderwaffe, but I have my doubts that they will risk this "super high tec" weapon in Ukraine though.

On the other hand Russia has an array of very capable and battle hardened missiles - including some stealthy ones, but why bother too much with stealth when you have HYPERSONIC

... and no, not all F-16s carry those.

Cruise missiles even the hypersonic missiles hit stationary targets.

If you know the enemy sent aircraft carrying them in mass like today then you message all your force and tell them to move away from their bases and keep moving.

You can do random take off to confuse the enemy but those involving tens of bombers aren't easy to organise.

Ukrainian territory doesn't require kh-101 or kalibr. Kh-59mk2 with 500km range is already covering most parts.