Russian special military operation in Ukraine #46

thegopnik wrote:I dont want to be an asshole but at this rate it looks like only wagner can fight. I have yet to see a bigger accomplishment than taking over bakhmut

Again that "only Wagner can fight" BS?!
After two months of counter-offensive Ukraine suffered heavy losses and achieved nothing significant on the battlefield, and with no Wagner mercenaries around, how does this fit into your "only wagner can fight" BS?

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem is to totally deplete Ukie manpower will take years and years, even by russian estimates they still have over 5M and at the rate russia is going that will tale a decade and they cannot let this go on for a decade

The same Russian estimates that give us the figures of 5M adult Ukrainian men remaining, also speak of 350,000 KIA, with an average of 3 WIA for each KIA Ukrainian casualties would already be around 1.4M, the remaining 3.6M will not last more than 2.5 years instead of a decade.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem is to totally deplete Ukie manpower will take years and years, even by russian estimates they still have over 5M...

Sure... Thats why they have had to resort to press-ganging old men and young boys, giving them a rifle, bare minimum training, then sending them to the front to die with no support. Cuz thats what winners do....

Keep sucking up that copium while supplies last. Demand for that product will only increase from this point onwards.

Big_Gazza wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem is to totally deplete Ukie manpower will take years and years, even by russian estimates they still have over 5M...

Sure...      Thats why they have had to resort to press-ganging old men and young boys, giving them a rifle, bare minimum training, then sending them to the front to die with no support. Cuz thats what winners do....  

Keep sucking up that copium while supplies last.  Demand for that product will only increase from this point onwards.

Well I guess you know better than the russians....oh wait ya don't

Boys, let's remain civilized and respect opposite opinion of other forum members. Mr thegopnik is not a troll, he just has different opinion.      

@Flamming python
Who is next in line, by law, if something happens to VVP?

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem is to totally deplete Ukie manpower will take years and years, even by russian estimates they still have over 5M and at the rate russia is going that will tale a decade and they cannot let this go on for a decade

They can cut that time easy if they get off their asses, stop pussyfooting and put in effort and ordinance

They have entire subcontinent which is straight up target rich environment and they just sit and do nothing

Reminder that entire Ukraine still has completely uninterrupted access to electricity, heating and water



Russians wants to win the Superbowl while only putting in little league effort, that's not how things work

If they want the Superbowl they will need to play the whole NFL season



They demanded to be the big boys well congratulations, they are given a chance to prove they can be big boys like USA, UK, China and France

Now is the time to step up and do the big boy work like all the others did so either do it or go back to your lane, give others what is theirs and shut the fùck up

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/01/no-breakthrough-yet-in-ukraines-counteroffensive-00109205

U.S. Defense Officials have told POLITICO that the “New Push” in the Southwest of Ukraine by roughly 150,000 Western-Trained and Equipped Forces that have only recently been Deployed to the Front has been “Disappointing” and not yielded Significant Results, with an Official stating that Ukrainian Gains can be Measured in 100s of Meters.

Oh I don't disagree paps, but you know the boot lickers and cheerleaders here don't see it that way

I never said ukraine can make better things tyen Russia. Geranium is low tech. Drones lioe tyat cab easily be made and strike deep into russia. Thats a reality

I am sure if they could they would... but they don't seem to be able to do that.

If Geranium was so low tech everyone would already have them and Russia would not need to licence produce them from Iran.

You should know by now Garry Likes to try and put words in peoples mouths and claim they said things they never did, why I have stopped replying to them in any capacity

I included a quote of what he said, but I changed it did I?

Show me where I changed what he said?

Anything anyone says is open to interpretation because there are often unstated assumptions with any comment that mean someone reading that comment without context might misunderstand.

I repeated what he said and I made a comment... how is that putting words in his mouth?

It is me telling him what I think of what he appeared to say from my perspective and giving him the chance to explain or elaborate if he thinks I got what he said wrong.

It only becomes a problem with people who do not accept any alternative views so obviously I must be trying to twist your words... because that would be useful obviously because when you are never wrong you can never admit to being misunderstood.

Ironic in a way because pretending to be misunderstood is how the masters get away with lying or being wrong... look at Trump snr....

Are the crews detecting those drones by visual means? So far they have been successful at destroying them, but I wonder what countermeasures are used to detect those sea drones

I rather doubt they would be wanting discussions about it on open social media... maybe they have a witch doctor sitting on the deck cross legged humming spells to ward off drones?

Or maybe they use aerial drones to look for seaborne drones... and have shooting parties with LMGs and HMGs to blow them up.

You f*ck this up and you are finished

You are already a joke, if you lose this war you will be losers with rapid expiration date

Which makes me wonder why anyone should take you seriously because you already think Russia is weak and stupid so your opinion means nothing at all.

Just because your retarded incompetent Navy can't secure one shitty bridge from some apes with RC toys does not mean you should all accept defeat

Hahahaha... Serbia folded like a bitch... from what we have seen in the Ukraine HATO are pussies... you should take Kosovo... what is HATO going to do... they have no ammo and no tanks left... start making your own drones and take them on if you are so damn tough.

BTW they use British RC toys because their navy has already been wiped out by that incompetent Russian Navy.

When a dog bites his owner he gets put down by a vet, always

Bullshit... owners get bit by their own dogs all the time... if dogs were put down for biting there would be no dogs left.

It is a game and one you volunteered for when you decided that you want to be one of the big boys like USA, UK, China and France

So you either win or stop wasting time and oxygen

It is no game, but you seem upset by the timing... and that is part of the plan... it is the west that is running out of time... Russia can pace itself based on the seasons as they come and go... the pressure on Russia is not increasing and the west and Kiev trying to bully the rest of the world to join their sanctions is not working and is actually alienating the west from the rest of the world when it is supposed to be alienating Russia and Belarus from the rest of the world. Elections are coming and time is running out and the big advance this counter offensive was supposed to deliver does not seem to be happening... despite all the money and ammo and weapons that have been sent already...

The really funny thing is that many countries and more importantly companies in Europe are desperate for this conflict to end so they can restore connections and return to trade and get those cheap materials and energy from Russia.... but I don't think they realise that that is over... Russia is shifting to different markets and wont go back to the countries that supported the nazi regime on its border.

If all it takes to defeat Russia is to assassinate Putin then Russia is weak and doesn't deserve to exist

I would say the assassination of Putin would result in a more hard line hard core leader taking office and actually actively try to damage the west and finish the war in the Ukraine on Russian terms.

The west would certainly not benefit from such a result, but let them think if Putin dies Navalny is next in line isn't he?

Only way to win this war is to exterminate every single Ukrainian willing to fight against you and the best way to do it is to crank up what you are doing now and NOT doing same retarded shit that already failed countless times throughout history

So you keep saying, but the chances of Russia being able to kill that many people in the next 20 years is low... even the Americans didn't murder that many in Afghanistan and they had no respect for human life in that conflict.

100% agreed, the war is only over once everyone who's willing or able to fight you in the Ukraine is dead, surrendered or fled to the EUSSR and beyond. Leave whatever remains of country 404 to rot until their NATO partners find the $600B to fix it(never).

Even with the most extreme estimates there are 22 million people in the Ukraine and even the most extreme estimate is 350K dead, so at that rate it is going to take decades to get the job done...

And even being optimistic over a few years they are likely to become less keen to walk in to Russian artillery strikes so eventually the number being killed is going to fall so Russian forces will have to change tactics which no doubt increase the numbers of friendly losses.

Numerically it wont happen.

The problem is to totally deplete Ukie manpower will take years and years, even by russian estimates they still have over 5M and at the rate russia is going that will tale a decade and they cannot let this go on for a decade

When the alternatives are keeping this going for a decade or surrendering to the west I would say the former option is more agreeable from a Russian perspective.

Especially true considering there is no way Biden can remain in office that long or anywhere near that long.

Boys, let's remain civilized and respect opposite opinion of other forum members. Mr thegopnik is not a troll, he just has different opinion.

They didn't try to vote him off the island, they just didn't like what he said... which is the purpose of the dislike button. Don't take things so personally, I am sure there are a few things I say that you don't like, but I wont ban you for that... you are not obliged to like or agree with anything I say, and you are free to show that by pressing the dislike button.

@Flamming python
Who is next in line, by law, if something happens to VVP?

According to western media that would be Donald Trump wouldn't it?  Closely followed by Jeremy Corbin and Julian Assange and Edward Snowden.

U.S. Defense Officials have told POLITICO that the “New Push” in the Southwest of Ukraine by roughly 150,000 Western-Trained and Equipped Forces that have only recently been Deployed to the Front has been “Disappointing” and not yielded Significant Results, with an Official stating that Ukrainian Gains can be Measured in 100s of Meters.

With no Wagner to be heard... maybe they had Shostakovich.

Oh I don't disagree paps, but you know the boot lickers and cheerleaders here don't see it that way

So it is American culture to put on revealing miniskirts and hold pom poms and lick the feet of people you agree with... got it... I will wash my feet more often just in case I accidentally say something you like and agree with.



Hmmm....

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem is to totally deplete Ukie manpower will take years and years, even by russian estimates they still have over 5M and at the rate russia is going that will tale a decade and they cannot let this go on for a decade

But the longer it lasts the less the quality of ukro soldiers will be.

Their best trained troops are getting destroyed. The civilians they take by force on the streets are very likely to surrender as soon as they can.

And many will just keep fleeing abroad.

So at the end the number you give is useless.

And nato hasn't increased production of tanks and IFV so they will stop sending them very soon.

... and while our local doom&gore team cried a river, Izmail port and oil facilities have been pulverized for a whole night long.
With tons of movies made from the Romanian side, showing that ONE Geran has been taken down out of a dozen or more.
Odessa get a bouquet, too.

Edit : sorry, wrong address - it was over Kiev where they have managed to take down ONE flower ...

Edit 2 : Odessa, grain elevator hit again, along with Danube Shipping Lines offices and the port terminal.





Seems like all ship grain export potential will be eradicated.

Russia is close to achieving it's minimal objectives in Ukraine : The liberation of the four regions of LDPR and though I am not sure if liberation of Odessa has officially been sanctioned , I think this region should also be included  . These are majority Russian speaking regions of 80% or more . Other pockets of Russian speakers exist , even large ones in the North , but they exist in a Sea of Ukrainian speakers . Liberation of these regions and incorporation into a viable contiguous land mass to be made into a country , would entail the capture of large areas of surrounding Ukrainian speakers , or in practice their resettlement . The pockets of Russian speaking regions in the North , should remain part of Ukraine , and Russia did well to withdraw from these border regions in the North . However , if after partition , the Russian speakers refuse to integrate into Ukraine and are subject to oppressive measures , then Russia can facilitate their resettlement into Russia proper .

However the full liberation of LDPR , and the remaining small  land with it's present or absent population , may only amount to a relatively small number of people . And continuous fighting at high cost to Russia in terms of lives lost and damage to economy , may be significant . This is a cost benefit analysis . In my view , unless Russia aims to launch a large offensive to capture these areas quickly and at low cost , say within the next six months , and also has the capability to liberate Odessa too . Then Russia may benefit by stopping all offensive operations and enter into negotiations with NATO .

The proxy NATO army can continue the fight , in one form or another from Western Ukraine or Poland against Russia for a long time . Capturing or destroying the entire Ukrainian infrastructure will not lead to ending the war . Only destruction of the proxy NATO army on one hand , and possibly partition and negotiation on the other hand may give results . Like Syria , the extremists will remain and may conduct sporadic operations . But unlike Syria , there is a need in Ukraine to conduct operations against extremist elements , or surgical operations . The problem becomes more long term , but low level , the SMO will resemble more of it's intended purpose of an anti- terrorist operation , than a war .

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographical_distribution_of_Russian_speakers#/media/File%3AUkraineNativeLanguagesCensus2001detailed-en.png

nomadski wrote:Russia is close to achieving it's minimal objectives in Ukraine : The liberation of the four regions of LDPR and though I am not sure if liberation of Odessa has officially been sanctioned , I think this region should also be included  . These are majority Russian speaking regions of 80% or more . Other pockets of Russian speakers exist , even large ones in the North , but they exist in a Sea of Ukrainian speakers . Liberation of these regions and incorporation into a viable contiguous land mass to be made into a country , would entail the capture of large areas of surrounding Ukrainian speakers , or in practice their resettlement . The pockets of Russian speaking regions in the North , should remain part of Ukraine , and Russia did well to withdraw from these border regions in the North . However , if after partition , the Russian speakers refuse to integrate into Ukraine and are subject to oppressive measures , then Russia can facilitate their resettlement into Russia proper .

However the full liberation of LDPR , and the remaining small  land with it's present or absent population , may only amount to a relatively small number of people . And continuous fighting at high cost to Russia in terms of lives lost and damage to economy , may be significant . This is a cost benefit analysis . In my view , unless Russia aims to launch a large offensive to capture these areas quickly and at low cost , say within the next six months , and also has the capability to liberate Odessa too . Then Russia may benefit by stopping all offensive operations and enter into negotiations with NATO .

The proxy NATO army can continue the fight , in one form or another from Western Ukraine or Poland against Russia for a long time . Capturing or destroying the entire Ukrainian infrastructure will not lead to ending the war . Only destruction of the proxy NATO army on one hand , and possibly partition and negotiation on the other hand may give results . Like Syria , the extremists will remain and may conduct sporadic operations . But unlike Syria , there is a need in Ukraine to conduct operations against extremist elements , or surgical operations . The problem becomes more long term , but low level , the SMO will resemble more of it's intended purpose of an anti- terrorist operation , than a war .

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographical_distribution_of_Russian_speakers#/media/File%3AUkraineNativeLanguagesCensus2001detailed-en.png

Wikipedia is controlled by the US State Department and similar scummy groups.
We are told "anyone can edit Wikipedia"?
Well Jimmy Wales, its founder says he won't even use Wikipedia now.
You will find many packs of lies on Wikipedia re Russia and other matters.
Try and edit it you will find some American with "mysterious powers" who somehow has the power to decide what is said and what is not.
A tiny number of individuals control huge chunks of Wikipedia. The only "free" areas are in super obscure areas that no one cares about.
One example, the Odessa massacre is blamed on pro Russians for "attacking Ukrainians". Absolutely evil lies from America.

That map is clearly a propaganda exercise from America/Azov etc. It isn't even remotely accurate.
In fact its utter tripe. So Nikolaev, Kherson and Zap are majority Ukrainian?

Across the former Pukraine, language is 50% Russian (or rather 47 or so), A quarter Surzhyk, and a quarter Ukrainian. Then little bits of Polish, Romanian, Hungarian etc.

As for geography, its Don, Lug, Crimea, Zap, Niko, Kherson,  Odessa, Dnipropr, Kharkov all strongly pro Russian in outlook and majority Ru speakers.
Chern, Sumy, Kirovg = strong arguments for pro Russia.
5/6 oblasts in the West = pro hohol or minority groups.
Central areas = more mixed.
Kiev is strongly Ru speaking but has suffered ethnic cleansing, but should be reclaimed for historical reasons and salvageability reasons.

In any case, the Ukraine's demographics are only a product of the genocide by Nazis. So Russia should a adopt a new rule. "Comply with historical justifications or **** off to clean toilets in Europe".

Russia has a golden opportunity to fix the problem once and for all. Liberate its people, ensure the buffer zone, re-educate the brainwashed and make amends for the evils perpetuated against Russians in the Great Patriotic War, WW1 and the COld Wars 1 and 2. It may require several Russian controlled states, but so what!

Here is a 2001 map
https://reconsideringrussia.org/2014/03/02/what-is-ukraine/ukraine-language-map/

2014 voting patterns when the democracy was crushed by NATO interference.
https://www.mintpressnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/oFnMTomu5mk9qsqGng1869F6jsvRo-ywMG4M5QKVKpdwJ85aJ7MlPJc2CSk-O5VsSAs2000.gif
Kiev, despite an influx of trash is still strongly pro Russian speaking.

Even if considering the map you posted , as correct relating to existing conditions , then capturing all Russian speaking regions would entail capturing territory , three times the size of territory captured already . And realistically resettlement of large number of Ukrainian population in large pockets . Not ideal , given the intensity and lengthy war for Russia . Still if fighting stops , and Russian speakers in Ukrainian territory , refuse to integrate ( An easy fix , since all are bilingual ) or are subject to oppressive measures , then Russia can resettle them in LDPR or Russia proper . Russia is a large country , after the fall of Soviets , many Russians in central Asia , chose to migrate to Russia . Compared to ongoing war , this plan may be better . Still Russia can restart operations in areas subject to ethnic cleansing , if all else fails . A fish is always fresh , whenever you catch it ! As we say . But this gives population in Ukraine a breathing space . The Nazis need continuous war to subjugate the population !

caveat emptor wrote:@Flamming python
Who is next in line, by law, if something happens to VVP?

The Prime Minister is next in line.

"Since the beginning of the SMO(Special Military Operation), approximately 20,000 to 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers have lost one or more limbs. This scale of limb loss is comparable to WWI, during which around 67,000 Germans and 41,000 Britons also lost limbs.

The actual number of affected individuals might be even higher, as prosthetics take time to be provided, and some wounded individuals have to wait weeks or even months for amputation."
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/57650

Volunteers of the territorial self-defense of the Belgorod region were given weapons, TASS reports .

According to the agency, the volunteers received machine guns, anti-drone guns and UAZ vehicles.

“We are resolving issues of providing weapons for our self-defense within the framework of the current legislation. The situation continues to be difficult, ”the regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov shared at the presentation ceremony .

It is noted that the UAV platoon held demonstration exercises with drones as part of the ceremony.

To date, the territorial self-defense of the Belgorod region includes about 3 thousand people. Seven battalions have been created on the border with Ukraine .

Prior to this, Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense , said that the territorial defense battalions formed in the Belgorod Region have the status of volunteers.

According to him, the battalions being created are not part of the Russian Armed Forces .

https://www-gazeta-ru.translate.goog/army/news/2023/08/02/20992388.shtml?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

Open Pandora's box and nasty things can come out and bite you.

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
.
37m
Artyomovsk direction, southern flank.

Our Army conducted a series of counterattacks yesterday to the north and west of Klescheevka, successfully repulsing part of the enemy's positions. The enemy retreated without much resistance.

Furthermore, in response to the enemy's use of cluster munitions, our forces have also started employing cluster munitions, including cluster bombs. Consequently, the enemy is suffering significant losses and is unable to advance.

#source  

@Slavyangrad

Seems like all ship grain export potential will be eradicated.

They can export grain through russian ports and with russian ships. 

Those Danube ports were key for imports as well as grain exports. All now over.

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
The Russian Armed Forces attacked the seaport in Izmail - the main thing

More than 5 kamikaze drones flew over the port of Izmail at night. An oil storage facility in Izmail was damaged, it caught fire.

The authorities announced damage to port and industrial infrastructure facilities. There were photos of the results of arrival at the elevator with grain.

Odessa publics also wrote about explosions in the area of ​​the Danube ports.

There is hysteria in Ukrainian media: the port in Izmail is one of the main ports on the Danube, which means that Ukraine is losing not only sea exports, but also river ones.

Also at night, explosions thundered in Kyiv - in the Solomensky and Goloseevsky districts. Local authorities reported a fire in "non-residential premises"

Ostashko! Important - subscribe
9:37 AM · Aug 2, 2023

Spriter Team
@SpriterTeam
.
36m
Western military analysts point to new tactical concepts that the Russian army has been demonstrating lately

This primarily refers to the elasticity of the front end of the Russian defense which, under the onslaught of Ukrainian forces, retreats a few kilometers back, leaving the territory to the enemy, after which a concentrated artillery and aviation attack is carried out on the zone that has been abandoned....