How Russia seizes the offensive initiative from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, by Rafael Fakhrutdinov for VZGLYAD. 08.04.2023.
The Russian Armed Forces switched to attacking enemy positions on a wide front - from the Kupyansky direction to the areas where the Donbass joins the Zaporozhye region. In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fell into a trap near the village of Staromayorskiy. Does this mean that the second stage of the "counter-offensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine turned into offensive actions of the Russian Armed Forces?
On Thursday, it became known that the Southern Group of Russian troops, together with aviation and artillery, successfully repelled eight attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donetsk direction - in the areas of Belogorovka, Berestovoye, Kleshcheevka, Krasnogorovka and Maryinka. “After that, Russian troops counterattacked the retreating enemy and improved the position along the front line,” the Russian Defence Ministry said.
During the day, Ukraine lost about 380 fighters, one tank, five armored cars, four cars, two Polish Krab self-propelled guns and a Rapira anti-tank gun. “In the Kupyansky direction, the assault detachments of the Western Group of Forces were attacking on a wide front and took up more advantageous positions in the areas of Olshana and Pershotravnevo in the Kharkov region and Kuzemovka in the LPR,” the report says.
In the South-Donetsk direction, air strikes and artillery fire from the Vostok group defeated the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the DPR - in the areas of Vugledar, Prechistovka, Makarovka and Staromayorsky. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost here 175 soldiers, a tank, two American M777 artillery systems and other equipment. In the Zaporozhye direction, the RF Armed Forces hit the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of Orekhov, Malaya Tokmachka, Novodanilovka and Pyatikhatka.
In parallel with this, the Russian Armed Forces managed to lure the enemy into a trap. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine have concentrated serious forces near Staromayorsky and are constantly trying to recapture this settlement, falling either on our mines or under artillery. The settlement has become a kind of trap for them, with the help of which we reduce their numbers, ” TASS quotes the words of Yan Gagin, adviser to the acting head of the DPR Denis Pushilin.
Moreover, in the areas of Malaya Tokmachka and Novopokrovka, Russian forces destroyed three brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Acting Governor of the Zaporozhye Region Yevhen Balitsky said on his Telegram channel . “Until four in the morning, the enemy was accumulating forces as part of three assault brigades to conduct offensive operations. Artillery fire was inflicted on the groups, the enemy practically lost the entire composition of the brigades, the survivors dispersed along the forest belt,” he wrote.
“In principle, the Ukrainian counter-offensive ceased to be an offensive already in the first half of June. However, our offensive north of Kupyansk, Novoselovka, in the Svatovsky direction and the liberation of a dozen villages cannot yet be considered a full-fledged interception of the initiative. These are tactical successes, but not a strategic offensive. But we are creating conditions for this,” says military expert Mikhail Onufrienko.
“Now the Russian forces are on a flexible defense and are preparing for the second phase of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which, in my opinion, has not yet begun. The last attempt at a major offensive near Rabotino took place at the end of July, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost many armored vehicles and a lot of manpower. Therefore, in the last week, the enemy does not dare to make any serious attacks, but throws 10-20 fighters into battle, sometimes without armored vehicles at all,” the analyst noted.
“In general, the “heroes” are scared - after two months of failures, they do not dare to do something big.
They are trying to "maintain the degree" at the front, realizing that if they do not advance, then Russian forces will advance. Obviously, in the camp of the enemy there are serious disputes between the Ukrainian, American and British commands. Everyone understands that something needs to be done, but everyone has different proposals. And most importantly, no one is going to listen to each other,” the source said.
“As for the situation with Staromayorsky, we control the settlement from three sides, so the enemy cannot develop his offensive. The Russian forces shot well there and are no longer hitting squares, but points,” the speaker detailed.
“At the same time, every time the Armed Forces of Ukraine go into a breakthrough, they are surrounded by our troops from three sides. And if the breakthrough fails to break through and expand, then it turns into a trap. It was the same in the Pyatikhatki area, which turned into a “gray zone” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, well shot by the Russian military. The same thing happened in Kleshcheevka, the capture of which was solemnly announced by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and from where they were forced to leave,” he recalled.
“The first phase of the Ukrainian offensive began on June 4 and bogged down in the twentieth of the same month. In July, the second phase began, which is still ongoing. But during this time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not achieve any significant operational results. All that they can bring to their asset is the capture of several villages on the Vremevsky ledge. This is disproportionate to the efforts and losses expended,” said military expert Boris Rozhin.
“At the same time, the enemy still has reserves that he can throw into battle.
In particular, brigades equipped with British Challenger tanks and American Stryker armored personnel carriers were not marked at the front. In my estimation, the overall offensive potential of the Ukrainian forces will be enough for a maximum of three to four weeks. During this time, they will try to achieve at least some tactical success in the regions of the Zaporozhye region and near Artemivsk,” the interlocutor predicted.
“I think now we can already talk about the interception of the initiative by Russian forces, which went on the offensive in the Svatovsky and Kupyansky directions. They gave us not only the liberated territories, but also forced the enemy to transfer reserves there, which they wanted to hold back for the Zaporozhye and Artemovsky directions. The plans of the Russian forces for August, it seems to me, are to go to the Oskol River, liberate a dozen and a half settlements there and create additional pressure on Krasny Liman, focusing actions on the threat of taking Kupyansk, ”the analyst said.
“As for the trap for the Ukrainian forces in Staromayorsky, then, in fact, it turned out the same as it happened earlier in Pyatikhatki.
Russian troops retreated from there - and enemy assault groups entered. But they cannot go further, because the area around is mined, and the heights are controlled by our military. A situation is being created in which holding Staromayorskoye becomes very expensive for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since ours are shelling them from three sides. In an attempt to hold the settlement, the enemy spends those forces that, according to their plans, were supposed to break through further - to Staromlinovka, ”the speaker noted.
“The Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to correct the situation if they are able to take Urozhayne within the next couple of weeks. This will help the enemy straighten the front a little. Also, probably, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to achieve some positive results for themselves in the area of Priyutnoye and Novodonetsk, in order to alleviate the situation for themselves in Staromayorsky by straining the flanks, ”the interlocutor detailed.
“Why did the enemy fall into a trap in Staromayorsky? To break through the front line, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to overcome a complex of minefields. But they are not removed across the entire width of the front. In one place, they pushed through the front line, removed the minefields there and go through the formed neck along the hulls of the columns previously broken here. By controlling Staromayorskoye and the heights surrounding it, the enemy could accumulate strength and strike in the direction of Staromlinovka. But so far, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not been able to use Staromayorskoe as a springboard for a future offensive,” Rozhin stressed.
https://vz.ru/society/2023/8/4/1224211.html
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Novorossiysk was attacked at night by 2 sea drones
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