Russian special military operation in Ukraine #46

So we have it confirmed, that US will supply the vanilla M1A1 instead of the claimed A2 ...
Not that it would make a big difference, but still funny.
Only the people dying aren't funny.

JohninMK wrote:Spriter Team
@SpriterTeam
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36m
Western military analysts point to new tactical concepts that the Russian army has been demonstrating lately

This primarily refers to the elasticity of the front end of the Russian defense which, under the onslaught of Ukrainian forces, retreats a few kilometers back, leaving the territory to the enemy, after which a concentrated artillery and aviation attack is carried out on the zone that has been abandoned....

Being static in defense will get troops killed in this war

Because missile and artillery fire can land on you if you stay still

That's why mechanization is important, to be able to quickly move and retake positions , using counter battery fire to respond and quickly reclaiming positions

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It seems we found what Sergey Kotov and Vasily Bykov used to defeat sea drones:




Of course this is Karakurt and Buyan, which have MG757 Anapa-m, dipping sonar which can detect drones, divers, and sabotage equipment

The project 22160 has tested this as part of a containerized sonar module :

^ I can further affirm that @GonzaloLira1968

was stopped on the Ukrainian side of the border from crossing and has since disappeared, now for more than 24 hours. That is the last that anyone has heard from him.

https://twitter.com/MarkSleboda1/status/1686620016081342465

This drama is moronic in pair with the subjected victim.

thegopnik wrote:I dont want to be an asshole but at this rate it looks like only wagner can fight. I have yet to see a bigger accomplishment than taking over bakhmut

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem is to totally deplete Ukie manpower will take years and years, even by russian estimates they still have over 5M and at the rate russia is going that will tale a decade and they cannot let this go on for a decade

Dunno I think sitting back and waiting for Ukrainian banzai charges into trenches that are mined anyway is a winning strategy. So does the Russian military.

An average number of Ukrainian KIA oscillates on 400 a day, with a peak in Nov 2022, when one day 1100 happened.
Data are accumulated from publicly published obituaries.
Till now, 284 000 separate entries registered.
Obviously, not all of those have been published, and not all of them spotted.
And does not cover MIA which was officially admitted at 80 000 early this year.

Make your own estimates.

An interesting fact : this number is very close to the minimal level made with the BBC/Medusa model I was talking about a while ago. Amazing.

I think that claims that tanks are obsolete have been disproven in view of the active defense of the 58th army

The crew of alyosha prove why armor is still important - in active defense you must be ready to withdraw quickly from a trench, or a position and fall back out of the range of enemy artillery

When the enemy comes into those positions, you use counterbattery fire

But armor and mechanization allows rapid counterattacks on previously lost positions

So 58th army, withdraws from a sector, the VSU uses artillery on the position, and advances to take it

58th army uses mechanization to evacuate, and directs counter battery fire on the position

Once it is cleared , 58th conducts a rapid counterattack using armor and infantry and aviation to retake those positions

In alyoshas case, the crew was alone because they did not want to wait, but normally a tank Platoon could conduct this type of active defense in a sector

The Syrian carousel is great to provide overwatch of the counterattacking tank Platoon and provide long range fire

In the case of Alyosha, artillery did it for them

But active defense is the way to conduct a defense in the conditions of modern warfare

Kharkov showed how static defense can result in critical defeats in the face of rapid attacking enemy

But Zaporozhye showed how lessons learned can be applied, and effectively counter the offensive of the enemy

flamming_python wrote:

thegopnik wrote:I dont want to be an asshole but at this rate it looks like only wagner can fight. I have yet to see a bigger accomplishment than taking over bakhmut

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem is to totally deplete Ukie manpower will take years and years, even by russian estimates they still have over 5M and at the rate russia is going that will tale a decade and they cannot let this go on for a decade

Dunno I think sitting back and waiting for Ukrainian banzai charges into trenches that are mined anyway is a winning strategy. So does the Russian military.

The problem is with that strat you kill rate depends on Ukraine, and again going by the current rate using this strat it will take around a decade to take out 90 percent of their manpower and Russia doesn't have a decade to keep doing this

Arkanghelsk wrote:I think that claims that tanks are obsolete have been disproven in view of the active defense of the 58th army

I don't think that anyone believes tanks are obsolete just that their tactics and deployment are being changed. Akin to the cavalry charge against machine guns...

franco wrote:^ I can further affirm that @GonzaloLira1968

was stopped on the Ukrainian side of the border from crossing and has since disappeared, now for more than 24 hours. That is the last that anyone has heard from him.

https://twitter.com/MarkSleboda1/status/1686620016081342465

And all this talk of asylum in Hungary, then escaping to Serbia. Mercouris even suggested he should go back to the US

But the guaranteed solution is and was always obvious - go to Russia. Snowden stumbled upon it just by accident, but it's what has kept his ass out of the slammer for the last 10 years. Had he gone anywhere else, to South America or some European country that pretends to safeguard human rights - he would have been rotting in a US jail for years by now.

Lira should have taken his bike and crossed over to Russian lines; there are passageways which civilians have used to cross over.

Instead he released 3 videos just before his escape attempt which only served to incriminate him for what he was about to do.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem is with that strat you kill rate depends on Ukraine, and again going by the current rate using this strat it will take around a decade to take out 90 percent of their manpower and Russia doesn't have a decade to keep doing this

You have to accumulate enough manpower superiority to gain the battle initiative and carry out constant offensives.

Russia has had much less troops and the domination of airpower and artillery cannot fully compensate for it. That is the reason for the setbacks in Kharkov and the decision to mobilize additional 300000 troops to Ukraine.

It is unwise for Russia to mobilize huge amount of troops in the way the desperated Maidan regime is doing.

flamming_python wrote:

franco wrote:^ I can further affirm that @GonzaloLira1968

was stopped on the Ukrainian side of the border from crossing and has since disappeared, now for more than 24 hours. That is the last that anyone has heard from him.

https://twitter.com/MarkSleboda1/status/1686620016081342465

And all this talk of asylum in Hungary, then escaping to Serbia. Mercouris even suggested he should go back to the US

But the guaranteed solution is and was always obvious - go to Russia. Snowden stumbled upon it just by accident, but it's what has kept his ass out of the slammer for the last 10 years. Had he gone anywhere else, to South America or some European country that pretends to safeguard human rights - he would have been rotting in a US jail for years by now.

Lira should have taken his bike and crossed over to Russian lines; there are passageways which civilians have used to cross over.

Instead he released 3 videos just before his escape attempt which only served to incriminate him for what he was about to do.

Yeah releasing videos of you trying to cross the border and probably doing so in a secure area really wasn't a smart idea....at all

Andrey Kartopolov and Andrey Gurulyov are both ex commanders of western military district, and southern military district

They are in charge of legislation over military matters

Both have hinted at travel bans, and restrictions and increased mobilization age as well as mobilization protocol, including denying exemptions for graduate students, undergraduate students, people caring for relatives,

You can bet anything we will see a mobilization in the next couple of weeks or months

People will not be allowed to leave if they receive summons

Volunteers are not enough, even at a rate of 40k a month, the training backlog is too long to rapidly convert those volunteers into fighting fit forces

A massive draft is needed to increase the pool of combat ready servicemen

It does not mean they will be deployed to the front line, but it means combat ready troops can go in their stead, as newly mobilized take over rear areas, administrative functions, and other security tasks

At the same time, the prospect of NATO war is just too great, it's better to be prepared with manpower to quickly push NATO to 1997 positions and then prevent a NATO counterattack with nuclear weapons

new tactical concepts

This "new" russian tactic goes all the way back to the GPW.

setbacks in Kharkov

Funny that some people still think Kharkov was some sort of setback or failure.
It was the first step to the "mighty counter-offensive" which is killing huge quantities of Ukro/NATO fighters.
Kharkov was like a blinker that a fisherman uses to lure in fish.
After that "success" the Ukros and their backers doubled and tripled down in Kherson. No matter the losses
in personnel and material.
After Kherson the talk about some "mighty counter-offensive" started. While the Russians prepared defences
and put up the concept of the meat grinders to pass the time.

The 300,000 KIA figure is a low number

Some of the wounded will also die later. Don´t know how reliable the Ukro side is in that regard (making the numbers puplic).

The only way to properly conduct a defense in the face of persistent ISR and PGMs on tap is the mobile active defense. You launch dozens of hit and run attacks that leave the enemies command and control busy with firefighting, then you assemble a strike package that fucks them up someplace else where they aren't looking.

Isos wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem is to totally deplete Ukie manpower will take years and years, even by russian estimates they still have over 5M and at the rate russia is going that will tale a decade and they cannot let this go on for a decade

But the longer it lasts the less the quality of ukro soldiers will be.

Their best trained troops are getting destroyed. The civilians they take by force on the streets are very likely to surrender as soon as they can.

And many will just keep fleeing abroad.

So at the end the number you give is useless.

And nato hasn't increased production of tanks and IFV so they will stop sending them very soon.

Another aspect of this war is, the economical, the longer this goes on, the more economical damage, the collective west(especially the EU) takes. Which is very good for Russia.

lyle6 wrote:The only way to properly conduct a defense in the face of persistent ISR and PGMs on tap is the mobile active defense. You launch dozens of hit and run attacks that leave the enemies command and control busy with firefighting, then you assemble a strike package that fucks them up someplace else where they aren't looking.

Yes and you can conduct a similar offensive as well

It's slow moving, but the tactics are the same, you use artillery to clear out minefields and defensive emplacements, you bring up armor with infantry, in small numbers to capture those positions

Aviation and drones hit enemy counter battery in the rear, if the aviation successfully clears enemy counter battery and reserves

Then you can bring up a much larger force to reinforce the success of the initial attack

We see that the Russian army can conduct a good mobile defense, I think we will see them on offense soon against similar fortifications, and with aviation we will see how a proper offensive is conducted in modern war

VORONEZH, August 2 - RIA Novosti. Detachments of the voluntary people's squad of the Kursk region will be given military weapons, the first batch has already arrived, Governor Roman Starovoit said in his Telegram channel .
"For several months, we have been working on the issue of providing the created detachments of the voluntary people's squad with military weapons. Today I can say that the mechanism has been found. I emphasize that we have created all the conditions for its storage. The first batch has already arrived at the base," Starovoit said. The governor added that in the near future the number of weapons will be increased to 300 units. Armed vigilantes will, if necessary, help units of the border guards of the FSB , the Ministry of Defense, the police and the National Guard .
In December 2022, a voluntary people's squad was created in the Kursk region on the basis of the Patriot center. Initially, more than 300 people joined this association, but the number of combatants is planned to be increased to 6,000. The people's squad performs several tasks: patrols the streets, guards engineering infrastructure and provides fire safety in areas where there are no fire departments. According to the governor, now the voluntary people's squad has almost 3,000 people.

https://ria-ru.translate.goog/20230802/druzhinniki-1887797826.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Hole wrote:

Did you guys wonder 

American passport. And he was to popular in some western circles. Too dangerous to get rid of him the usual way.
That´s why they released him.

That is a very poor assumption that a US passport can guarantee ANYTHING. Especially when you oppose the current regime in the whitehouse and are a dual.

https://t.me/milinfolive/104512?single
3 American mercenaries were killed in Ukraine on 31 July.

We are talking about former US Army soldiers Geoff Johns, Andrew Weber and Lance Lawrence.  Jones was killed during the fighting in the Artemovsk direction, there is no information about the place of death of the other two Americans.

Military Informant

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
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56m
Vladimir Putin set a new task for the authorities.

At the presentation of state awards in the Kremlin, he demanded that social protection be provided for the families of the participants of the special military operation. Separately, the president focused on the families of those who died at the front.

“I want all my colleagues across the country to hear this. The families of the military, families of the dead are our families. Their children are our children. And you need to treat them that way, " Putin gave the instructions to officials.

At the same time, Putin's appeal should not only strain officials, but also reassure the military, said Mikhail Mizulin, associate professor at the School of Political Studies at the RANEPA. “It is important for fighters to understand that their families and children are protected,” Mizulin said.

US passport can guarantee ANYTHING. 

This is the mindset of most Americans (even if Lira was born in Chile).