Russian special military operation in Ukraine #46

Hole wrote:

The first phase of the Ukrainian offensive began on June 4 and bogged down in the twentieth of the same month. 

The "offensive" bogged down on June 5. 

Disclaimer: what I am about to say comes from a purely humanitarian, American taxpayer, and arm chair general/Monday morning QB (US gridiron football). I have no love for Ukraine and while I would have done a couple things different on the Russian side from day one, I think that from reading what Russia said its objectives were that what its doing is very much in pursuit of those war objectives. Now to ask my questions:

What kind of incompetent clown sends in forces into an offensive without the means to at least challenge for air superiority? Two patriot missiles batteries, a crab or 5, and some left over Soviet era surplus) is not what you need for an offensive to work. Buh buh buh, Spock the Seanpennwaffe is getting a couple dozen F-16s. . . . Yeah, but that is way too little too late.

Why are these incompetents using their wunderwaffles like storm shadows and drones to attack Russian civilian targets instead of deploying them to the front. Oh look it you killed a 14 year old girl's family on Kerch bridge! Yeah, that'll turn the tide. You attacked apartment blocks and skyscrapers in Moscow. You'll get people to quit Putin now. Except sociologists have found from WWI to the present that airpower demoralizes soldiers on the receiving end but strengthens the resolve of the civilian populace.

What kind of incompetent commanders don't mass their tanks at one or two main points and focus all available artillery at those points to achieve breakthrough? Good Lord, they are making mistakes Voroshilov made in the Winter War and instead of their idiot commanders getting sacked and replaced by competent people they're getting medals. Voroshilov, if you remember spread his forces all across the Finnish frontier and wasted a hell of a lot of troops. Timoshenko and Meretskov focused the bulk of their artillery and tank forces on a very narrow portion of the front and achieved operational breakthrough causing the Finns to sue for peace. With the amount of tanks and artillery Ukraine does possess, they could probably achieve breakthrough at least locally at different parts of the front, but they just won't learn and so they are losing a crap load of tanks and artillery and APVs.

What kind of numbskull launches offensives without first securing the ammo dumps, staging grounds, oil reserves, and logistics tails needed to keep an offensive going, to say nothing of building up large and well trained troops, armor, artillery and aircraft?

Oh wait, I keep forgetting that this whole damn show is a scam and the scam only ends when either Ukraine says enough (I hope someone in Kiev gets the balls to stand up to Yutz Stolenberg and Joe Bidet or a lot more Ukrainians will die for nothing) or else people in the west say we are through paying for this scam

Arkanghelsk wrote:
There's no worry

BTW if you get a summons there's no leaving,

Putin has yet to sign the bill, but it has gone to his desk

Age of draftees has gone up, exemptions from service such as graduate deferral is suspended, and there are restrictions on entering and leaving for receiving summons

Think hel sign it in the next 2 weeks,  time to see if it's time brother

Oh I know. So better get across to Kazakhstan before it's too late  
With such words as yours at any rate. Else stop wobbling and have some faith in the leadership as is.

I don't expect a new wave of mobilization until the end of the year, they're just sorting out the legal work ahead of time. But we'll see I guess

Ukraine claims a strike against a Russian warship. Was bound to happen sooner or later. There is no systemic defence or detection network against these sea drones and they seem cheap and easy to mass produce.



Can anyone identify the ship in question?

GarryB wrote " ....Putin gave HATO and the US separate points of discussion about security for everyone in Europe... the US said no and HATO said HAHAHAHA. " well I mentioned an informal agreement between Russia and NATO , as a starting point and a flexible position that both sides can retreat from or advance along . It was done before , after WW2 , the partition of Europe by the allies , into spheres of influence . They did not go to war over it , but Stalin discussed it , sitting around a table .

It is a question of learning from the past mistakes of trusting the other sides , where in reality security measures are needed to be implemented to guarantee compliance . A system of checks and balances that allows proportional and verifiable and practical responses by both sides to bring balance to the equation and maintain these agreements .

And since Russia , even in the best possible scenario , does not benefit , nor intends to control western Ukraine , and has to accept some sort of NATO presence there in the future , then it makes sense to enter into negotiations with them directly , forgoing any talks with Kiev . Since Kiev , in reality is just an arm of NATO and without it's support , will cease to exist and have no power .

A gradual approach by both sides is needed , involving three factors : First is the reduction and eventual stopping of all arms supplies by NATO to the Orcs , weakening them gradually and ultimately disarming them , allowing Russia to advance against them . Second is Russia advancing gradually along the front to capture eventually all Russian speaking regions . Third is NATO advancing into Western Ukraine and capturing territory in proportion to territory captured by Russian advance ( This not taking into account the already liberated LDPR regions , under defacto Russian control ) .

The net result might be an expanded Russian region to the East . An area under NATO control in the West . An possibly an area under nobody's control , involving areas around the River basin and large nearby settlements . Job is a good'un ! Alternatively Nuke each other suddenly , or implement gradually and proportionately .


https://europe.unc.edu/the-end-of-wwii-and-the-division-of-europe/

flamming_python wrote:Ukraine claims a strike against a Russian warship. Was bound to happen sooner or later. There is no systemic defence or detection network against these sea drones and they seem cheap and easy to mass produce.



Can anyone identify the ship in question?

Project 775

They are equipped with MG 7 Braslet to prevent these types of attacks by subs, drones, torpedoes. Yet, Ukro Nazis were successful.

MG757 Anapa-M should replace MG 7 Braslet.

Arrow wrote:

Another success day after day. Tanker damage.

That's nice, and how exactly does it change the war? It doesn't. Just another cheap pathetic terrorist attack. Wonder which bit of Ukrainian infrastructure successfully intercepts Russian rockets today.

PhSt wrote:

I talked many times before about how NATO officers talk about Russians, i will not repeat that misguided, deluded and just downright evil excrement here,

Russia needs to open a new division in its foreign intelligence service like the SVR, which will be tasked to track down and eliminate these officers wherever they are on the planet. Their families and close relatives should be subjected to hostilities too including getting killed in order to make life more difficult for these NATO Nazis.

It would have already happaned if it were to happen.

Russia will not retaliate even if the West wipes out Kremlin.

State Duma deputy, representative of the parliamentary group on military special operations in Ukraine Shamsail Saraliyev confirmed the transfer of 44 bodies of the dead to the Ukrainian side, in response, Kyiv handed over 160 bodies of fighters who died during the hostilities. The Ukrainian side also announced the exchange of bodies of the dead.

In July of this year, the parties handed over the bodies of dead servicemen to each other. Then the Russian side handed over 62 bodies to Kiev, and Ukraine handed over 160 in response.

The last officially confirmed exchange of captured servicemen took place in early July. Then the parties exchanged prisoners of war according to the formula "45 for 45". In addition, according to the head of Zelensky’s office, Andriy Yermak, two children were returned to Ukraine, whose mother, who worked as a military medic, had been exchanged earlier.

It is also reported that the Kiev regime, in order not to pay compensation to the families of the dead militants, often records them as prisoners of war. Against the backdrop of significant losses of the Ukrainian army during the offensive, Kyiv is trying to avoid legally required payments to the relatives of the dead servicemen.

According to official statistics, in the two months that have passed since the beginning of the offensive, the Ukrainian army has lost more than 43,000 people. This number does not include militants who were injured, those whose bodies were evacuated, and those who died as a result of strikes with precision-guided weapons at militant locations.

https://topwar-ru.translate.goog/223164-mezhdu-rossiej-i-ukrainoj-sostojalsja-obmen-telami-pogibshih-v-zone-boevyh-dejstvij.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

kvs wrote:If Lira was a larper, then he has not had a chance to flip.   He has not been steering the discussion in Kiev's favour and has not
been acting to discredit the side he is supposedly larping.   So I am not buying the SBU asset tinfoil.   Too many "experts" on his
reactions and his actions as if they all went through similar.

There would be zero point for SBU to recruit a pro Ukrainian. The whole concept of SBU is intelligence and deception. Not sure of ur military background but I can only go by experience and colleagues experiences. If lira had been tortured to the extent he mentioned he wouldn't be on camera acting all calm and risking retribution

The fabled VDV got assraped, neutered and never again dared to approach the entire Kiev region

They approached the Kiev region to put Kiev under threat... a sensible thing that was very useful at the time and was probably a good part of the reason Kiev signed the peace deal, but after Kiev flip flopped there was no real reason to approach Kiev until Russia was ready to destroy it or seize it... either of which would require a much larger force than the force they sent.

How do you partially sign something?

Do you just use 50% of the letters or you write first name but not last?

Anyway Russians should have noticed something was off when they saw that half the signature was missing

The people present working out the agreement sign it and then the people with the real power sign it officially later on. It was explained when Putin mentioned he had the signatures of the Nazi negotiators, but not the head nazis.

Obviously, in the camp of the enemy there are serious disputes between the Ukrainian, American and British commands. Everyone understands that something needs to be done, but everyone has different proposals. And most importantly, no one is going to listen to each other,” the source said.

Hahahaha... add some French and Germans telling them different things they have to do and it would be like they were part of HATO already...

They would be deported as well. More meat for the meatgrinder. Even the bitches too, its just a matter of time.

Perhaps Kiev might be smart and declare the draft for women as well as men... femenists in the west would orgasm at the right to fight and die for their country the way they have been denied that basic but most sort after human right that men have selfishly kept for themselves.

But seriously the alphabet people would love it and the immediate effect would be that most of their female population would suddenly get pregnant and remain so for the duration of the conflict to avoid getting drafted... which would seriously help with the demographic problems the country is facing... though the quality of the results might be a problem as inbreeding might lead to babies with webbed feet as family members try to save their women from the front line any way they can.

But why would Kiev start being smart now.

Its of modular armor construction. Allows for a higher fraction of composite armor compared to steel and easier to maintain and replace. Its less sturdy against repeated hits but you're not supposed to be hit a second time without popping smoke and breaking LOS.

Indeed, but it looks less stiff than cardboard and one impact seems to have ruined it... would that even stop HMG fire?

I guess they can do some serious testing, but of course they were downgraded before being sent to Ukraine so it will be OK to buy more from their maker is what they will say.

What are the chances that the Zelensky peace deal is accepted by nations who were neutral or at least non vocal about the SMO?

What difference does it make... it is Russia that has to accept the deal or it is just the bullshit ravings of a madman.

But then why is Russia fighting attrition war? Why didn't they wrap this up quickly and give the war legitimacy by ending it decisively and killing the regime which is so called "genociding" Russian "minorities"?

The enemy was refusing to surrender.... they are no more choosing an attrition war in Ukraine than they did in Afghanistan... or anyone did in Afghanistan.

China and India would look like overt supporters of aggressive war, and annexation if they reject the peace deal

No one would accept Zelenskys terms if they were in Russias position... the US and HATO least of all.

They are not at this snooze fest to solve the problem and find a peace deal... otherwise Russia would have to be there.

This is a sales pitch to get countries that are actually being neutral to somehow start supporting Kiev and start criticising Russia and I really don't think they will be any more successful than last time.

This is the result of inadequate approach to the SMO - it must be ended quickly on Russias terms to put the stick in this whole thing about who will determine the fate of Ukraine

As Kiev continues to lose Russias position improves. A quick fix or urgent end would benefit only the west and Kiev and would require Russia to cave and they are too far down the rabbit hole for that to be an option.

This isn't ending with the west and Russia kissing and making up... it is over.

Otherwise the terms and conditions of any peace will be determined by outside actors

The actions of the west regarding the minsk agreements show outside actors have no part to play and that Russia needs to finish this herself.

India can say, we will buy gas from Saudi Arabia and not you, if you do not end the war, and China also can increase Saudi oil purchases and leave Russia hurting if they come to agreement together

They signed up to join BRICS for the express purpose of agreeing not to pressure other countries into doing things they don't want to... if they wanted to open Pandoras box and think they could force Russia into accepting terms they are not happy with in the Ukraine where will Russia stand on problems for India with Pakistan or China... where will Russia stand when the US wants Russia to ban exports to China or India because they are essentially bypassing western sanctions on Russia.

What is probably going to happen is all these countries are going to go and listen to Kiev and the US blame Russia for everything and then the US is going to demand they send weapons and ammo and money to Kiev and to condemn Russia for being the bad guy, but these countries know exactly what has happened and what is happening and that if somehow the west can beat down Russia that China is next and India after that if they start to grow and develop.

I don't even think Saudi Arabia will agree with anything... they are cutting their oil production too so they wont have any spare to sell to India or China... and lets face it... India and China want more because they know they can sell to Europe and the west at a good markup and make good profits.

If the west really had a spine they would refuse to buy, but they don't... they are used to comfortable safe lives...

So Russia must not allow these countries to make agreements that do not consider their own interests

Russia has signed up to BRICS and respects other countries rights to be independent and think and act for their own interests.

Russia signing a peace treaty because these other countries think they should would be like them signing it because HATO and the US and EU say so.

It is not in their interests to do so... certainly not any agreement that Kiev would be happy with.

If it makes you feel better Zelensky already said no peace while Putin remains in power... so there is that too.

It's necessary to end this war and finish it already

If the west cut support... money and weapons and ammo it would end very quickly, if the Ukrainian people decided enough is enough it could also end quickly, but that is for their side to decide... the only way Putin could end it quickly would be to surrender. Using overwhelming force would most likely be counter productive and costly on both sides.

Storm Ukraine, and reach the Dnieper, then continue a denazification operation in West Ukraine, kill the Kiev government and any potential government and delegitimize any government in exile, by simply not recognizing them

Another couple of seasons and they might collapse on their own... or have a civil war...

They also do have a much more experienced officer corps now which is able to use what they do have to good advantage, that's definitely a plus compared to before.

They probably have a core of experienced seasoned soldiers who understand what has been going on and know sooner or later that they will be going to the frontline.

A bit like Blackadder goes forth, where they keep missing the opportunity to march slowly towards the enemy guns through no mans land... till the last episode...

What a surprise

Yeah, but those arseholes still can't tell where the shells are coming from... Kiev or Moscow forces... dumb pricks.

Theyl be swept aside by a 300,000-400,000 man force

I don't think a much larger force will do a lot except create more logistics columns and fuel and ammo dumps for the orcs to target...

It would take a year to prepare and get into position... by that time I would think the orcs will be voting with their feet.

Go to the Dnieper and bypass the urban centers

Bypassing urban areas means holding empty fields while the remaining enemy form strongholds in the cities with lots of meat shields to hide behind and entertain themselves.

Personally i deeply support the Russian operation, i was involved with it from the NATO side and with what NATO did and thought about matters. Russia has no other option than to remove Ukraine off the map.

The price will be high to do it, but the price will be much higher if they fail and create a false peace and the west does again what they did with Minsk and try it all over again in 5 or 10 years... and your boys you want to save will only have to do it all again in 5 or 10 years time...

And some NATO Laptop recovered by RF forces near the start of the operation in Ukraine.

Imagine the shit the panic brigade would be flinging around if a Russian military laptop computer was shown and it was a Dell?

Lenovo... they are Chinese aren't they?

Is there a way for Russia to deploy floating devices in the Black Sea similar to mines, but instead of having explosives, it will have frequency jammers to disrupt unmanned sea drones in the vicinity?

I think it would just be better to start shooting down drones over the Black Sea area... declare it a no fly zone because of the conflict and risk to military air traffic.

What kind of incompetent clown sends in forces into an offensive without the means to at least challenge for air superiority? Two patriot missiles batteries, a crab or 5, and some left over Soviet era surplus) is not what you need for an offensive to work. Buh buh buh, Spock the Seanpennwaffe is getting a couple dozen F-16s. . . . Yeah, but that is way too little too late.

The same incompetent idiots who thought they should withdraw their air power from Afghanistan three months before withdrawing the last of their ground forces and civilians.

Air defence is done by air power in the west so a withdrawal or an offensive without air power was a trap to get people killed so they can demand more money or weapons or ammo... and make a political opponent look weak.

I don't expect a new wave of mobilization until the end of the year, they're just sorting out the legal work ahead of time. But we'll see I guess

Which means they wont be ready to fight till late next year... that is election time in the US isn't it?

Poor little Zelensky... they wont answer his calls then... other things to focus on.

It is a question of learning from the past mistakes of trusting the other sides , where in reality security measures are needed to be implemented to guarantee compliance . A system of checks and balances that allows proportional and verifiable and practical responses by both sides to bring balance to the equation and maintain these agreements .

The west cannot be trusted so any agreements will require Russia to make concessions with no assurance the other side will keep their end of the bargain, so concessions for nothing... "no deal" is a better option than a bad deal like that.

Malyuk also added that such attacks on Russian ships in the Black Sea will continue, since Ukraine considers this area of the sea to be its part, and will stop only after all Russian ships leave the "territorial" waters of Ukraine."

There you go... Ukrainian ports can be destroyed now and ships in them sunk...

What a surprise

DD Geopolitics
@DD_Geopolitics
Lack of English language proficiency has become an issue for Ukrainian pilots preparing for F-16 training, according to Politico.

Currently, only 8 Ukrainian pilots are ready for training.

Another 20 pilots will have to undergo English language courses before they can be allowed to operate the planes.

At this time, the training program has not yet been finalized.

One side effect of the attack on the Russian tanker is probably the end of non Russian protected merchant shipping in the open waters of the Black Sea. Maybe still possible to use the coastal waters of Romania/Bulgaria/Turkey.

This is due to the probable removal of all insurance cover, which had already increased in cost by 10x since the end of the grain deal.

Did the even mention center of gravity in driver training?

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - --
@GeromanAT
.
6h
Ukrainian channel Strana:

The Armed Forces of Ukraine explained what the difficulties are in overcoming the Russian defense in the south.

They were listed by the commander of the Support Forces Dmitry Gerega:

1. The enemy set up a multi-layered system of engineering fences in the occupied territories, consisting of several lanes with a length of 10 to 40 km each, their density is quite high.

2. Obstacles include anti-tank minefields, anti-tank ditches, dragon's teeth concrete pyramids, anti-tank hedgehogs, wire obstacles.

3. The enemy uses mines, including in such a way that they cannot be removed.

To overcome minefields, a significant number of engineering and sapper units are needed, which lack the necessary equipment.

4. Now five engineer-sapper battalions have been formed. Part of their composition - 200 people - was trained abroad. During July-August, about 150 more soldiers will be trained abroad.

5. The Armed Forces of Ukraine received from the West up to 100 units of special equipment to create passages through Russian barriers (engineer tanks, demining installations and charges, tank bridge compilers, etc.). Crews are being trained abroad.

What kind of incompetent clown

Answer 1: They are incompetent clowns, guided by their own "superiority" and hatred for Russians (Iranians, Chinese...)
Answer 2: They know that the war is lost. There only goal is to inflict damage on Russia, directly (by hitting civilan targets and soldiers) and indirectly (by destryoing as much as possible of 404 = Russias south-western regions)
Answer 3: The Neocons (= Nazis) still hope that some random attack on a civilan ship or a few damaged windows in a skyscraper or reaching some defence line will lead to "regime change" in Moscow.

JohninMK wrote:Did the even mention center of gravity in driver training?  

https://twitter.com/i/status/1687692423932297216

When we used command Saxons they often tipped over, it became common procedure when heading down steep slopes or any terrain that could cause a potential topple everyone dismounted from the vehicle apart from the driver and commander. Everyone hated Saxon. It was meant for streets of northern Ireland not on the fields or conventional battlefield. And many other European 4x4 vehicles are no better.