Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49

kvs wrote:

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Well, they could declare war, mobilize a million people and tacnuke anything even remotely resembling an airfield in Ukraine.

Had they been the U.S. they would at the very least have leveled Kiev by now with conventional weaponry.

Russia needs to take care of the Ukr baby after this is all done.   So why would it level cities?   To rebuild them later?   The US
is a very bad example.   It has no intention of rebuilding anything in Iraq just as it had no intention of rebuilding anything in Vietnam.

See the difference.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:The frustration in Russian circles is understandable, and I don't know what the reasoning is.

Well, they could declare war, mobilize a million people and tacnuke anything even remotely resembling an airfield in Ukraine.

Had they been the U.S. they would at the very least have leveled Kiev by now with conventional weaponry.

To date, they have attacked the airfields countless times, but these Soviet planes are rugged as hell, and each time an attack is on its way they take off to stay clear. Then they can land almost anywhere, not to mention that airfields are everywhere too.

In short, to deal with the menace it's either nukes or all-in invasion with all available assets, loads of fighters included. That would almost certainly lead to significant losses to AD though. They should have done that immediately, when UA legacy AD was on its last breath, but the schizophrenic nature of the operation at first kinda messed that up, with all the "goodwill gestures" etc.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Russia has struck "decision making centers" multiple times.

Each time they turned into kitten orphanages in an instant, of course, but still.

What Russia hasn't done at all to my knowledge are symbolical strikes. For example every single administrative building, HQ or government "palace" in Kiev remain untouched. Hell, in most other cities too.

So I wouldn't hold my breath if that's what you expect as retaliation.

The promise Putin made to Zelensky, that gave the latter the "courage" to leave his bunker early on still apparently stands as well. They've had dozens of opportunities to whack him, but have refrained from doing so. The same "courtesy" hasn't been reciprocated by UA, as they conduct all manners of terrorist attacks on all kinds of people, whether important or not, and wouldn't hesitate for a second to try to kill Putin or any other high ranking Russian official if an opportunity shows up.

The frustration in Russian circles is understandable, and I don't know what the reasoning is.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Russia has struck "decision making centers" multiple times.

Each time they turned into kitten orphanages in an instant, of course, but still.

What Russia hasn't done at all to my knowledge are symbolical strikes. For example every single administrative building, HQ or government "palace" in Kiev remain untouched. Hell, in most other cities too.

So I wouldn't hold my breath if that's what you expect as retaliation.

The promise Putin made to Zelensky, that gave the latter the "courage" to leave his bunker early on still apparently stands as well. They've had dozens of opportunities to whack him, but have refrained from doing so. The same "courtesy" hasn't been reciprocated by UA, as they conduct all manners of terrorist attacks on all kinds of people, whether important or not, and wouldn't hesitate for a second to try to kill Putin or any other high ranking Russian official if an opportunity shows up.

The frustration in Russian circles is understandable, and I don't know what the reasoning is.

kvs wrote:Russia needs to take care of the Ukr baby after this is all done.   So why would it level cities?   To rebuild them later?   The US
is a very bad example.   It has no intention of rebuilding anything in Iraq just as it had no intention of rebuilding anything in Vietnam.

See the difference.

ucmvulcan wrote:

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Russia has struck "decision making centers" multiple times.

Each time they turned into kitten orphanages in an instant, of course, but still.

What Russia hasn't done at all to my knowledge are symbolical strikes. For example every single administrative building, HQ or government "palace" in Kiev remain untouched. Hell, in most other cities too.

So I wouldn't hold my breath if that's what you expect as retaliation.

The promise Putin made to Zelensky, that gave the latter the "courage" to leave his bunker early on still apparently stands as well. They've had dozens of opportunities to whack him, but have refrained from doing so. The same "courtesy" hasn't been reciprocated by UA, as they conduct all manners of terrorist attacks on all kinds of people, whether important or not, and wouldn't hesitate for a second to try to kill Putin or any other high ranking Russian official if an opportunity shows up.

The frustration in Russian circles is understandable, and I don't know what the reasoning is.

Sometimes the best retaliation is that of your own time and choosing.  Take the former head of Wagner.  He led a coup during war time, thought he had gotten away with it, and then he was a problem solved at great height.  If Putin retaliates for every little drone that does minor damage then he turns into the US sanvtions.  All retaliation is rendered pointless.  He knows that these acts are designed to provoke.  He knows US planes and uniformed soldiers are involved in these.  NATO wants these planes shot down. They want article 5 invoked because while you and I and several hundred million would die our deaths are a orice they are willing to pay in their well furnished luxury bomb shelters.  Why give NATO the excuse to start that?

Then there's the fact that these terror attacks are temper tantrums.  As the offensive starts sinking in the mud  and the bodybags start growing, these attacks increase.  Putin knows that too.  

For those who want vengeance, and I completely understand the desire for that, do keep in mind that the vengeance will be in the form of transport infrastructure and airfields.  Also, lots of talk on twitter that a counteroffensive may begin soon.  So stay tuned

caveat emptor wrote:

kvs wrote:Russia needs to take care of the Ukr baby after this is all done.   So why would it level cities?   To rebuild them later?   The US
is a very bad example.   It has no intention of rebuilding anything in Iraq just as it had no intention of rebuilding anything in Vietnam.

See the difference.

Taking whole Ukraine, after previous historical lesson with same endeavor,l during SU times,  would be a strategic level of mistake. They need to take all  of Black Sea Coast, reach  Danube and annex best parts of agri land and mining deposits. Whatever is left, should be left to languish and, with time, depopulate. 
Otherwise, pure monetary cost of rehabilitation of huge country where good part of population has animosity towards you is an invitation for further problems in the future. 
As for red line answers, destroying energy, transportation and telecommunications should do the trick. Spark another wave of refugees to EU.

It will need to be taken unless there is a change of government to someone who is ready to break away from the West and make deals with Russia, and would have the authority among the local elites and population to implement that.

Otherwise it's just going to become a giant Idlib funded by NATO and breeding problems for Russia.

The promise Putin made to Zelensky, that gave the latter the "courage" to leave his bunker early on still apparently stands as well.

Russian redlines are useless.
Pay no attention to all those NATO officers checking out by way of plane crashes. 

What would you have Russia do, carpet bomb every bit of paved concrete and every metal structure that looks like it could be a hanger or store fuel or ammo?

franco wrote:Constantly surprised at how people cannot grasp that the second largest military force in Europe with the full support of NATO will occasionally get a hit in via whatever means.