Russian special military operation in Ukraine #51

The number of Ukrainian ground forces is about 600 thousand people, Zelensky said.


500k RF will be enough to achieve local superiority on the sectors RF wants to take over.
Most of the 600k men (and women) are not fit for active combat operations due lack of training or too old.
All RF has to do is keeping the pressure and take out AFU exactly where they are right know untill AFU is collapsing.
Plus a lot of AFU units are dispersed on border areas to Belarus and north of Kharkiv.
Not more than 200k more or less fit AFU forces are currently engaged in the combat lines.

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1734544957690507639

(Not sure where to put this mods feel free to move it)

Hungary flexes it's muscles again.


Bulgaria has said it will lift a tax on Russian gas transiting its territory after Hungary threatened to block its bid to join the EU’s border-free Schengen area unless it abolished the charges.

Romania and Bulgaria have spent more than a decade trying to gain unanimous EU approval to enter Schengen

Budapest on Monday issued its gas ultimatum at a meeting of EU officials in Brussels, according to three people briefed on the discussions.

The threat is the latest move by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to disrupt EU consensus, ahead of a summit of EU leaders this week where he has vowed to block financial and political support for Ukraine.

Bulgaria introduced a Lv20 ($11) excise tax per megawatt-hour of transiting Russian gas in October, the proceeds of which it is yet to collect. The main goal was to squeeze the Russians out of the European market, Bulgarian officials said. The tax would be levied at Gazprom, not the buyers of its gas, but Hungary and Serbia pushed back, saying it was jeopardising their imports.

Hours after Hungary’s threat, the leaders of the two main government parties in Bulgaria told a press briefing that they would be reversing the gas transit tax to avoid hurting “countries upstream” and jeopardising Bulgaria’s Schengen hopes


https://www.ft.com/content/544bc4c8-0f9a-4699-b352-607e420f620c

franco wrote:The number of Ukrainian ground forces is about 600 thousand people, Zelensky said.

Zero credibility from this clown. This number is fluff composed of theoretical recruitment of children, women and elderly.
It is physically impossible for the Kiev regime to rebuild its army this fast. Maybe they could have 600,000 by late next year.

I also think that most of Ukria's existing army is deployed at the front. By contrast, Russia has only deployed a fraction of
the 700,000 it has raised for the SMO. If Russia wanted to could roll over the remaining Ukrian army. But that has not been
the objective and drawing in the Kiev regime forces to expend themselves on the current front has been the priority.

We are likely to see a spectacular collapse of the Kiev regime forces in the coming year. It looks like Russia is interested in
messing up Biden's precious election plans, so it will wait for the final push until the second half of 2024.

He is going to Washington to beg for money. Must provide some dumb statement about its ability to keep the war going.

He certainly doesn't have 600k troops. More likely 600k meatballs with no training and no equipement.

After the start of the Russian Northern Military District, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky announced a general mobilization in the country. After some time, the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Alexey Reznikov, said that the authorities planned to mobilize 1 million people. In the fall of 2022, Deputy Minister of Defense Anna Malyar announced that the mobilization plan had been exceeded.

A little more than a year has passed and Zelensky, while in the United States on December 12, said that the number of Ukrainian troops is now about 600 thousand military personnel. Thus, the data that Ukraine lost about 500 thousand people during the fighting was indirectly confirmed. However, the figure mentioned by Zelensky raised questions among a number of Russian experts, especially since Western analysts started talking about the fact that Ukraine will need to mobilize another 3 million people. However, these assessments are quite possible, given the level of chaos perpetrated by the employees of the Ukrainian military registration and enlistment offices.

On this day, Russian expert Yuri Podolyaka drew his attention to what was happening and commented on what was happening on his Telegram channel. He noted that of the 600 thousand mentioned by Zelensky, not all are at the front. Thus, over 50 thousand people work in military registration and enlistment offices at all levels. There are also various headquarters, airfields, warehouses and other facilities where personnel are required. Tens of thousands of military personnel also settled there.

According to Podolyaki, a whole business has emerged from such positions, and this is not counting other interesting forms of “slope” from the front. There is a whole category of “well-fed characters” - these are military personnel who are listed as “under long-term treatment.”

This is such a very convenient form of existence for “proper Ukrainians” - to be considered both a military man (so that you don’t get caught) and so that you don’t get taken to the front. And there are already many thousands of them. And formally they are among the 600,000 people Zelensky is talking about. And then there are “dead souls” who are formally still serving, but in fact have long been rotting in the fields of Donbass or Zaporozhye. But someone is diligently getting paid for them – he added.

Podolyaka estimated that there are 400-450 thousand military personnel in the “active army” of the Kyiv regime. Perhaps less, since there is a constant shortage of personnel; even tens of thousands of patrol police are sent to the front, who die en masse there.

https://topcor-ru.translate.goog/42242-jekspert-vyjasnil-kuda-propala-millionnaja-armija-zelenskogo.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

GEROMAN -- time will tell - --
@GeromanAT
For most of the warring Ukraine, the main news today is not the situation on the fronts...

For almost 24 hours, millions of Ukrainians have been in a state of shock. The servers of the largest mobile operator Kyivstar are not working.

As a result, there are systemic failures in many segments of the country’s economy, incl. and in the banking system.

Judging by the panicky statements from that side, it is not a fact that the system will be able to be raised earlier than in a week. And even then, it may happen that it will never be able to function fully.

The largest accident since the existence of such a system in the country. In Kiev, they blame Russian hackers for everything, but there is a version that the issue is a redistribution of business. If this is so, then I am with both hands “for” such “toad viper”.

P.S. By the way, the Kyivstar network was widely used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces for purely military purposes. So if the blow came from our side, then this, as they say in such cases, is a “legitimate military target.”
Plus: Pompeo has become a board member of that company (lmao)


Via Salviangrad TG:

So don’t let anyone get you: what happened to the infrastructure of the largest provider in Ukraine

Today's problems in the Kyivstar network turned out to be perhaps the most destructive in the history of IT Square. Millions of subscribers are left without mobile communications and the Internet, problems are observed at banks and other critical infrastructure facilities - even emergency alerts do not work in a number of regions. The company's management has already blamed "hackers" for the accident, who allegedly got into the core of the operator's information systems.

This version looks somewhat dubious. Typically, the resources of such large organizations are not only maximally protected from hacking, but, in addition, they are also parallelized in order to ensure maximum fault tolerance. Without going into technical details, in the event of some kind of accident or sabotage on one of the critical servers, its “replacement” must take over, often even physically located in another location.
In addition, such information systems always have several levels of backup, from “snapshots” of the system that are ready for almost instant restoration, to tape cassettes with backups that are older, which (with the right approach) should also be located in a place physically inaccessible to an attacker (literally in a safe in another location).

Large companies such as factories, providers or banks take their security very seriously and conduct regular exercises during which they practice emergency recovery mechanisms and check the integrity of backup copies. Yes, there are mistakes and all sorts of excesses, but it’s not easy to believe that the largest telecom provider in Ukraine suddenly found itself defenseless against an attack by hackers and cannot restore what was destroyed. Add to this the fact that no known Russian hacking groups have yet claimed responsibility for this attack.

But everything will become much clearer if you follow the recent history of Kyivstar. Founded within the Friedman Alfa Group, the provider is part of the VEON holding (formerly Russian VimpelCom) registered in Holland. After the start of the SMO, VEON distanced itself from Russia. VimpelCom was bought out by Russian management, after which the Dutch company pretended that it had nothing in common with Moscow.

But all of Friedman’s attempts to maintain his assets in Ukraine through assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Kyiv were unsuccessful. There was constant talk about the imminent nationalization and confiscation of the company in favor of the state or third parties. Since October, searches literally did not stop at the Kyivstar offices and it seemed that the asset would soon float away into someone’s more tenacious hands. Unconfirmed rumors suggested that the US business elite had already been able to “bend” the presidential office and reach a preliminary agreement on the transfer of a tasty asset to new American owners.

At the same time, VEON did not give up and tried to win American lobbyists over to its side. For example, former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo joined the company’s board of directors in November. But, apparently, the owners of Kyivstar failed to defend the rights to their property and the company faced a real risk of confiscation.

With this background, the situation becomes much clearer. It seems that the current management has simply decided to blackmail the Ukrainian authorities and American kites with a kind of grenade with the pin pulled: “if you take away our company, then the “hackers” will destroy the very heart of our business and instead of a profitable business, you will get miserable ruins.”

It is simply unrealistic to commit such sabotage without the active assistance of a number of the provider’s IT specialists. So, if the consequences of the “accident” cannot be restored in the coming hours, or at most days, it means “we did not agree.”

Mini Night hunters now

So I was thinking about all the Ukrainian refugees in Europe. When the West hangs Ukraine out to dry, which looks increasingly likely, is there any risk of resentment and terrorism when they realize their nation was sold down the river?

hope so...

They have a murder department whose job it is to eliminate anyone getting in the way of the Ukraine, so if they start knocking off western media or politicians I wonder if it will be mentioned or not...

That could be entertaining...

Well if that happens I am sure Russia can get tired enough to decide to do it back... with the UK there is the IRA, with the US there should be plenty of angles to encourage insurrection or to leave the fold.

PapaDragon wrote:IRA is still a thing?

I live in Northern Ireland, and all the paramilitaries now are just drug dealers. If they think your dealing they'll kick in your door and chase you out, but thats about it. Too much money to be made to do any attacks on anyone.

Much easier to start fights than to create peace and stability.

If the west wants conflict then let them have conflict... but within their own borders...

The problem is that the west does not know when to quit... the rich and powerful make money off every war so as long as their children avoid the draft they don't care they don't care how many die or are damaged.

As the rich get richer and the poor get poorer creating divisions becomes easier and the disaffected are easier to get to rise up.

Hamas has no problem recruiting because Israel is making sure Palestinian men have no future so they have nothing to lose.

The two problems are a cause and financial and military equipment support... look at what the US did with the Ukraine in such a relatively short time... they didn't have to blame the Russians, last time it was done on such a scale in Europe it was the commies and the jews that were the enemy.

Would be funny to write a book about the parallels between the rise of nazi germany and the rise of Ukraine.... they both had their night of the long knives....

PapaDragon wrote:IRA is still a thing?

At no level is the PIRA active. Its weapons were handed over and destroyed. Its army council disbanded.
There are a couple of splinter groups that are too weak to piss let alone mount any serious threat save for one off type assassination events on the security forces. These groups cannot move without security forces north/south knowing about it.
There’s very little stomach for any return to political violence.
Ex members of the republican groups are more into fuel smuggling and other criminal activities including drugs though its the loyalist groups that are more heavily involved in that.
Local thuggery on both sides still exists.
That’s the armed end of it.
Politically, Sinn Féin (the PIRA’s political wing) are the largest party in NI and will, in all likelihood be the next Dublin government.
Loyalism is currently fractured and we’re left pissing against the wind over Brexit. Not for the first time, the UK Gov sold them out.

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko

Medvedev:

“Analyzing Biden's words is a thankless task: an old man with obvious signs of progressing dementia. Yet sometimes he clearly reveals doctrinal formulations, like the one voiced during the visit of the Ukrainian beggar. It's about the mythical victory of Kyiv. Let's break it down, as it is symptomatic. So, according to Biden, "victory" now means that:

1. "Ukraine is an independent state" – i.e., victory is simply in the country remaining on the map, with no regard to borders or sovereignty. For instance, Lviv remains within its borders.

2. "...and it can defend itself today." Note: just defend. Only today, not tomorrow. No counterattacks. No advancement. It doesn't matter what the consequences are or how. For example, "defending itself" within the same borders of Lviv with old tanks and limited other equipment and means of attack.

3. "...and deter further aggression." Let the "aggression" be on the old man's conscience, not a preemptive response to NATO actions. What's crucial: "deter on its own," not with the help of allies and their guarantees. Plus, an obvious understanding that the Armed Forces of Russia will continue to suppress neo-Nazis. It's inevitable.

Well, as Lenin used to say, this is a fundamental change in our views on socialism. Add to this the old man's silly chuckling and bewildered face when asked about Ukraine's victory. I think, after such a "success," the Bandera clown indulged in a narcotic trip right on the plane out of annoyance and powerlessness...”

A bit more on this US Army 'takeover' of the Ukrainian military. Control is now overt not covert. HQ must be a prime target now, wonder if they are holes up in the US Embassy for 'safety'?

Military expert Alexander Zimovsky:

The Pentagon has transferred the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Eastern Front to manual control.

Now the main commander of the Ukrainian troops will be the American Lieutenant General Antonio Aguto Jr. He and a group of senior Pentagon staff officers will arrive in Kyiv in the next few days and will take over the planning and management of all combat operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Thus, the Pentagon is deploying a full-fledged apparatus in Ukraine with the constant presence of American military advisers in native units and formations.

General Aguto has experience commanding the Third Infantry Division and commanding the First US Army, which is a training and mobilization (cadre) combined arms reserve army. So, to further continue the war in Ukraine, the Americans chose the Vietnamese-Afghan template.

De facto, the US war against Russia can be considered officially declared.

https://t.me/vicktop55/19158

Some good comments in its thread https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1734589108146598204

So essentially the US Army is taking over... that is great, because it will mean US troops in situ that can be hit with strikes on HQs and comms centres and in the field... when the HATO experts try to fight a war with no air power and little artillery and not very much else, against a force that has ample supplies of both and more besides then their failure will be something they can't pretend was the fault of the damn natives who just didn't follow HATO tactics.

Or perhaps they expect the Kiev army to collapse and fold and roll back and for the Russians to roll forward so they want to shift to fight a guerilla war behind Russian lines going after supply units with special forces... perhaps capture enough Russia soldiers to make a deal...

General Aguto has experience

Thus, the Pentagon is deploying a full-fledged apparatus in Ukraine with the constant presence of American military advisers in native units and formations.

That happened 9 years ago.
They only declare it openly now to shield themselves from the failed "counteroffensive".
You see, until now we had nothing to do with it.

Pretty sure the kinzhal strikes two days ago were about that power transfert in Kiev.

RF SU-34 bombing run in Kherson, since there is stil foilage on the trees propably summer 2023 or 2022.
But i never seen this particular footage before.