Russian special military operation in Ukraine #51

PapaDragon wrote:
Odessa too

That would provide a land corridor to the Pridniestrovie.

But that would also create a front-line without significant natural obstacles, and with the Russians having a back towards the sea.


http://asaland.proboards.com/thread/264/georgian-losses-reports

http://asaland.proboards.com/thread/302/ukraine-participated-invasion-south-ossetia



I am surprised that a Serb like you did not used the historical name of the New Serbia.

well how fast is the land grab pace Russia is currently doing this month compared to the last offensives? It surely feels like its going faster now after constant past talks of new MLRS, drones, shells and missile production.

A fair exchange would probably be Moscow's view on this. Two Su-24 and crews, with StormShadow mods, for a landing craft of little tactical use now, apart perhaps from the Syrian Express after the end of the SMO.


Military Summary
@MilitarySummary
#UkraineRussiaWar
During an attack by a pair of SU-24s, the Ukrainians managed to destroy the Russian large landing ship Novocherkassk, which was transporting weapons and shells for the Russian army in southern Ukraine.
There is a possibility of a second strike, but this time the target could be the Crimean Bridge.

The Ukrainians Destroyed The Russian Ship With A Cruise Missile Strike. Military Summary 2023.12.26

Victor vicktop55
@vicktop55
Russian Ministry of Defense: "Tonight, while repelling an attack by the Ukrainian armed forces using aircraft guided missiles at the Feodosia base, the large landing ship Novocherkassk was damaged. During the anti-aircraft battle, air defense systems destroyed two enemy Su-24 tactical aircraft in the area of ​​​​the village of Zhovten (125 km northeast of Nikolaev), which were launching aircraft guided missiles."

Interesting cargo on the ship to make that bang. Yes, its another of John's big bangs.




A near before and after. I doubt that they will get that out in one piece.

BUT was it actually a tanker that went up? It looks the wrong profile

Armchair Warlord
@ArmchairW
Seems like an oil tanker was struck alongside the pier in Feodosia, Crimea. Little blast damage but certainly created an impressive fireball, which may have been the point of this particular target versus any number of more militarily-useful things to hit.

Propaganda uber alles.

Russian gains in the Artemovsky direction since the end of October.

Seems like a 3 pronged big arrow offensive will happen by January

Proceeding from Marinka, Avdeevka, Artemovsk, the entire southern grouping of Ukrainian forces has nowhere to dig in

Basically they have to fall back 200km towards Pavlograd and Dnepropetrovsk- and the forces in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk , Konstantinovka, Chasov Yar would basically be flanked on their right

Then you have several army corps staring Kharkov straight down

If these two massive army groupings advance along Kharkov/Seversky and from the south towards Pavlograd, the entire AFU grouping in donbass risks being captured in a cauldron

They will most likely fall back in January, and they would lose the bulk of their army if they stay in those villages that have no cover on the flanks

Why would Russia need to ship anything to its forces in Ukraine? That does not make any sense. It's not Syria. The theme of cutting off Crimea
with some missile attacks on the Crimean bridge has been a NATzO-Ukr propaganda theme for months. It seems to have done the job of infesting
people's minds with nonsense.

Wow that ship was 36 years old. !! Quite impressive the condition they kept it.

I have a feeling they might change their minds in the last minute when training Ukrainians to fly f-16s depending how far russia might advance in the coming months

Edit: I an genuinely more concerned if the russians will decide to take action or not if the Ukrainians will use the Baltic countries to refuel and equip their f-16s with weapons. I have a feeling they will not  keep the f-16s in Ukraine  because by the time they are done training those aircrafts will eventually be in reach from short range drones which russians will have plenty.

Powerful explosions reported in Odessa

"Geranis" flew there

Explosions at Starokonstantinov airfield!

36 isn't that old for a naval ship. It should be able to be fixed.

The only way to stop these cruise missile attacks and secure Sovestopol from them is regime change in Kiev and removal of the US embassy. What would you rather have ? These missile attacks on Sevastopol or the odd terror shooting or something in Kiev ? I think this whole idea that a Russia controlled Kiev will result in some kind of super insurgency is bullshit.

Backman wrote:36 isn't that old for a naval ship. It should be able to be fixed.

The only way to stop these cruise missile attacks and secure Sovestopol from them is regime change in Kiev and removal of the US embassy. What would you rather have ? These missile attacks on Sevastopol or the odd terror shooting or something in Kiev ? I think this whole idea that a Russia controlled Kiev will result in some kind of super insurgency is bullshit.

The project 1171 (alligator class) are 50 years old or more but not many of those are in service anymore.

Ropucha class is much younger in comparison:p

That age would be more relevant for another class of ships, because of radar, electronics, weapon systems, which can become maybe not obsolete, but less effective after many years. A landing ship tank does not need fancy equipment so as long it is properly maintained does not need the same refurbishing /retrofits that a frigate would need.

As far as the insurgency in Kiev, possibly at the beginning they could have some nazi/ terrorists cells, but the FSB and national guard should be able to cope with it.

Now Cecenia Is pretty safe and i do not see why the same can't be true for Malarossia or for Krasnaya Rus.

At the end of the military operation they just need to find reliable Malorossian to put in the local government or each of the new oblasts/ republics + the new federal city of Kiev.

kvs wrote:Why would Russia need to ship anything to its forces in Ukraine?   That does not make any sense.   It's not Syria.   The theme of cutting off Crimea
with some missile attacks on the Crimean bridge has been a NATzO-Ukr propaganda theme for months.   It seems to have done the job of infesting
people's minds with nonsense.    

Its a bunch of bullshit

Imagine that even on this forum the last couple of pages have discussed :

1. Bradley vs BMP
2. 5 su34 shot down
3. Some old ship hit at harbor

But notice not mentioned at all are the fact that Russia has announced 4 to 6 army corps which have not been introduced into battle

At the same time that the current force is pushing through Ukrainian defenses in Sinkovka, Klesheevka, Avdeevka, Marinka, NovoMikhailovka

Now the main issue which Ukrainian and NATO propaganda is desperately trying to avoid

Is the impending displacement of the southern grouping of forces of the AFU

The average person doesn't understand what is taking place

The entire Ukrainian army is on the verge of a rout

They will have no army, if they allow these new army corps to take them into an encirclement

I can't stress that this is the main issue right now

You think they are looking for 500,000 draftees because ?

They are about to lose the main defensive positions and lose 200km2 of land - basically everything from the current lines, all the way to Pavlograd

Because take a look at the map, the Kramatorsk defensive line is isolated, the right flank is empty fields lying on lowlands

Literally Marinka and Avdeevka are what is protecting the AFU right flank

Take a look at administrative borders of Donbass,  and what lies past Kurakhovo? Literally small villages

In Seversk, what is there? Villages in low land

So on both flanks of Kramatorsk agglomeration, the AFU are losing their positions and the terrain offers no plausible defense

They are left with 2 equally disastrous choices:

1. Withdraw from the donbass and avoid encirclement by this massive Russian army grouping , but displace to Pavlograd/Dnepropetrovsk,  allowing Russia to eat 2 regions (Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov)

2. Stay and lose the entire AFU grouping of forces  in donbass and lose the regions anyway

We are about to see a decisive battle take place,  and we are discussing everything but

I'll believe the russians are going to introduce new army groups and for an an encirclement when they do it

thegopnik wrote:I have a feeling they might change their minds in the last minute when training Ukrainians to fly f-16s depending how far russia might advance in the coming months

Edit: I an genuinely more concerned if the russians will decide to take action or not if the Ukrainians will use the Baltic countries to refuel and equip their f-16s with weapons. I have a feeling they will not  keep the f-16s in Ukraine  because by the time they are done training those aircrafts will eventually be in reach from short range drones which russians will have plenty.

The F16s are garbage.

Russia has created a new kamikaze drone "Supercam" with a high degree of protection against electronic warfare systems, and it is now being tested, Rostec head Chemezov told RIA Novosti.

He also said that the newest Russian howitzer "Coalition" should soon appear in the Special Military Operation zone to provide a significant advantage over NATO howitzers in range.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/81459?single

JohninMK wrote:Interesting cargo on the ship to make that bang. Yes, its another of John's big bangs.




A near before and after. I doubt that they will get that out in one piece.

Whatever it was expand the image and take a close look its not a good match for the landing ship. Maybe it was too damaged to be a good match but I doubt you can conclude much from the comparison. How did the antenna turn white?

Lots of pro-ukr gloating in X/Twitter right now.

The difference is that there are replacements in terms of fuel and ammo and even ships for anything that might have been lost... cannot say the same for the long list of things Russia has destroyed over the same period.

BS
Alexander the Great could turn up as new "President" of Banderaland and would still loose.

True, but Zelensky is making it easier for Russia to win.

The first 6 ukrainian pilots completed basic training in UK

So they have completed basic training for experienced MiG-29 fighter pilots... it seems these MiG-29 pilots were DCS trained teenagers perhaps so needed complete from scratch training about aircraft from child level up to fly F-16s.

Also they clearly believe 6 F-16s will be enough to overwhelm the Russian military and defeat Putin... interesting.

And several months before they can actually fly f-16s... sounds like they have already delivered the F-16s and want to launch a surprise attack with them... perhaps for New Year.

History lesson, the allies could have taken out Hitlar earlier in the war but they saw how his decisions were making it easier for them to win, so rather than risk getting someone in power who actually knew what the **** they were doing.

Ahh come on... that is their excuse when they try and they fail... the west was keen to knock of Hitler... it is a method the west still uses today... they got Chavez and are trying to get Maduro, and of course Saddam and Gaddafi... they tried for decades to get Castro.

So he is correct in what he is saying which is for Russia to get everything it needs and make their job easier, Zelen staying in power is the best thing possible

I agree with this, but the west always prefers to murder people... they would have murdered Putin on multiple occasions if they got the chance. Still would.

NATO best wunderwaffe stealth missile and they can't get more than 1 in 10 thru...

And they get one through because they aim them all at unimportant targets.

You would think a super stealth super accurate cruise missile would be headed for the naval command building in the crimea that controls the navy in that region, but they don't even bother trying to hit that because they know all their missiles would be shot down and they would get nothing... so they pick a tanker tied up in port, or an old ship in dry dock and launch as many missiles as they can from the few aircraft they have left and occasionally a missile or two makes it through... at the cost of three or four aircraft...

Ukrainians are claiming it wasn't an ammo dump but the Ropucha class Novocherkask.

A 50 year old landing ship would not be something Russia would be too upset about losing. Even a tanker would not be the end of the world.

I would say if they didn't sink a Ropucha that after the war it will be retired as new Ivan Gren and other replacement ships enter service anyway, and they are making new tankers all the time.

A little more from the new Ukraine mobilization law.

So Russia should prepare itself for a massive increase in the quality of new Ukrainian soldiers...

Russia is protecting its high value targets. Every now and then one Ukrainian missile will slip through, there is nothing Russia can do about that. Performance of Western SAMs in Ukraine has been mediocre.

Yes, getting excited about a single ship being sunk is amusing when daily Russian attacks where most missiles launched hit all their targets and destroy them, and the various air defence missiles and cannon shells sent into the air to stop them do additional damage to the areas around the targets is what this conflict has become.

When Goliath has his hands on Davids throat and is strangling him you don't cheer when david uses his fingernails to break the skin on Goliaths arm that barely bleeds, and certainly does not make him release his grip... in fact it makes him grip tighter...

As Davids supporters promise a sling with a brand new stone that can kill a man at 300km range... it makes no difference because the fight is already lost.

But that would also create a front-line without significant natural obstacles, and with the Russians having a back towards the sea.

A problem easily solved by moving the front line further from the sea.

By that stage taking more territory becomes a viable option.

Now Cecenia Is pretty safe and i do not see why the same can't be true for Malarossia or for Krasnaya Rus.

Even more so with nazi idiots exposing their own crimes on social media since 2014 so the hard core nutters should be quite straight forward to track down and deal with.

The F16s are garbage.

Even if they were F-35s sending 6 would not make much difference.

ALAMO wrote:There is only one issue with that.
This entire class was made in Poland. In Gdansk.
The Soviet Union was its major operator, with close to 70 ships delivered.
The problem with those ships is a fact, that bulk of them are of the earliest modification, which was made to carry T-54/55 tanks. So were the dimensions, displacement etc.
By today's standards, it can hardly carry 3 tanks not because of the displacement issue, but the deck size, with the most modern - 4.
It is seriously outdated by any standard, so the point of repairing a 40 y/o burned piece is null. As long as they had them, sure that having a ship beats not having it. But I guess they operate a few pcs of those at most, and all were destined for scrapping anyway.

Russia has still about 10 or 11 Ropucha class in service (a total of 28 of them were build in Danzig between 1974 and 1985), plus 3 of the older (and sligthly larger) alligator class (project 1171) which were built in Yantar (Kaliningrad) (14 ships of the 1171 class were built there between 1964 and 1975


They are not complex ships in comparison to multirole frigate (or even 20380 corvettes).
As long as the requirements are properly defined in advance and not changed all the time a new class of landing ship tank (I mean a modern equivalent to the alligator class, but taking into account deck size requirements) should be able to be build relatively quickly.

And ideally the job could be given to a different shipyard than Yantar, so that Yantar can concentrate on the modified 11711M class, which probably is more capable than the old 1174 Nosorog (Rhino) class (Ivan rogov class) even if the latter was larger.

Of course It could be also nice to replace each of the old ships with the new 11711M, but I believe that even ships like the alligator and the ropucha have shown themselves very useful in some roles and there is no need to use a larger, more capable and more expensive ship for each task.

P.S.  I read some silly comments in the western media sphere criticizing this landing ships because they were slow and hit often
It is not a frigate or a destroyer, it does not need to be that fast. Furthermore any ship which is in the harbour is vulnerable in the same way even if It was a modern destroyer.

Over my head

GhostyZOV
@GhostyZov
UA crew whom @P_Kallioniemi
is collaborating with, aka he is working with foreign intelligence services.
Here is Finnish national security services where you can report Pekka Kallioniemi treasonously collaborating with foreign intelligence: https://turvaviesti.supo.fi/ota-yhteytta

with close to 70 ships delivered.

You confuse the Ropucha with the Polnochy class.

Russian gains in the Artemovsky direction since the end of October.

Not bad for active defense.

This looks like an updated Nazi Germany strategy of eliminating all those who are drains on society.


Armchair Warlord
@ArmchairW
Back in July I wrote a thread analyzing Ukrainian personnel losses in the context of German casualties in WWII, in which I determined that due to extreme casualties they could not sustain the war effort much past Spring 2024.

Today their new mobilization law came out and it's insane.  Here's some highlights.  People are now fully eligible for service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in "Disability Group III," comprising people who:

1. Are missing or blind in one eye
2. Are partially deaf
3. Have a tracheotomy
4. Have jaw defects that prevent normal chewing
5. Suffer from dwarfism (<130cm for men)
6. Have a missing or nonfunctional arm
7. Have an amputated leg up to the thigh
8. Are missing fingers
9. Are missing both feet
10. Have a pacemaker implanted
11. Have only one working kidney
12. Have only one working lung
13. Have suffered from "traumatic castration"
14. Have a brain abscess (!)
15. Have a substantial skull defect
16. Have Parkinson's (!)
17. Have extreme scoliosis
18. Have severe chest deformities
19. Have "severe adrenal insufficiency" (it's a war eh?)
20. Have no bladder.

It also apparently drops the official conscription age from 27 to 25, but I doubt that's been taken adhered to at any point in the war and particularly not in the last year.

These are not the measures of a healthy society fighting a low-casualty war.  This is Armageddon.