Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53

Russian troops are preparing “pincers” to capture Vugledar, by Anastasia Kulikova and Evgeny Pozdnyakov for VZGLYAD. 02.22.2024.

In Ukraine, they started talking about the danger of the Ukrainian Armed Forces falling into pincers near Ugledar. All this is happening against the background of the advance of Russian troops in the Donetsk direction. Recently, the Russian Armed Forces managed to take Avdeevka and the village of Pobeda, which significantly increases the maneuverability of the army. What are the features of the advance on this sector of the front and why could Ugledar become the next target of the Russian Armed Forces?

The Ukrainian Armed Forces may find themselves in pincers near Ugledar, located in the Volnovakha region of the DPR. This was reported by Ukrainian war correspondent Yulia Kiriyenko, RIA Novosti reports . “Avdeevka is everything. Kurakhovo get ready. There was no need to pay attention to this area. If the Russian troops advance there, then we will have another Artemovsk,” she said.

According to her, one of the battalions “may already be in a perimeter defense” due to “subsidence” on the flanks and the withdrawal of neighboring units under pressure from superior formations of the Russian Armed Forces. In this regard, Kiriyenko called on the command of the operational-strategic group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “Tavria” to build a second line of defense here as soon as possible.

Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported in its Telegram channel that Russian troops, with the help of bomber aircraft and artillery strikes in the areas of Ugledar, Urozhayny, Staromayorsky, Ravnopol and Priyutny, destroyed three temporary deployment points, nine control points for unmanned aircraft and two electronic warfare stations "Bukovel".

In another message , the department reported on the defeat of areas where manpower accumulated in the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of Vugledar. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces managed to take control of the village of Pobeda in the Donetsk direction. The enemy's 92nd assault, 79th air assault, and 46th airmobile brigades were also defeated.

Previously, experts had already predicted the possibility of active advance in the direction of Ugledar. Thus, Alexander Perendzhiev, a member of the expert council of “Officers of Russia,” noted that the capture of Avdeevka can ensure the implementation of various maneuvers in the territories of the DPR, still occupied by the enemy.

However, at present, Russian experts tend to describe the situation more pragmatically. In their opinion, Ugledar can be captured in pincers, but only if a number of conditions are met. In particular, for this it is necessary to liberate Novomikhailovka. And only after the liberation of this section of the front, the Russian Armed Forces will be able to concentrate in more comfortable conditions on capturing the city of Kurakhovo.

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces hold Vugledar mainly due to geographically more advantageous positions. We tried to storm the city from the south, from the lowlands, and the enemy was on the heights, which allowed him to stop the advance of Russian troops more than a year ago. Since then, the front line has been relatively stable. The situation changed with our capture of the village of Pobeda south of Maryinka,” noted military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko.

According to him, Russian fighters continue to build on their success and are moving along the route in the direction of Konstantinovka. “The goal is to eliminate the fortified area Novomikhailovka - Paraskovievka - Konstantinovka. After this, we have the opportunity to reach Ugledar from the northeast of the village. This development of events creates a serious threat to the enemy group,” the interlocutor emphasized.

In this direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are less protected, explains Onufrienko. “To the north and northeast of Ugledar there are heights that neutralize the enemy’s advantages. Considering the fact that the Ukrainian command rarely withdraws troops from populated areas in a timely manner, allowing them to be encircled, the prospects for the Ugledar group to fall into the “pincers” are extremely high. But this will not happen soon, although the risks for the Ukrainian Armed Forces are growing,” the military expert believes.

At the same time, the assault on Vugledar is unlikely to be protracted, the interlocutor believes. “There are no fortifications in the city like those that were in Artemovsk or Avdeevka. Yes, I admit that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can rely on the Yuzhnodonbasskaya mine, but it is located at a sufficient distance from Ugledar,” the speaker explained.

The Ukrainian military will have a hard time in the city. “Our aviation was active in Pobeda and Avdeevka. I think that the number of sorties, as well as the use of FABs, will increase,” Onufrienko clarifies.

War correspondent Fedor Gromov also admits that the enemy group in Vugledar can be captured in pincers. “But this will become possible only when Russian troops take Novomikhailovka,” he clarified, adding that without physical control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ supply routes, there can be no talk of encircling the enemy.

How long and persistently the enemy will try to maintain its positions in Ugledar depends on the ability of the Ukrainian military leadership to support this group, the interlocutor believes. “If the Ukrainian Armed Forces receive shells, if additional units are deployed, then this, of course, will delay the liberation of the city. In a sense, the situation that happened in Artemovsk may repeat itself,” Gromov explained.

“If the formations do not receive the appropriate resources, everything could end in a matter of weeks,” the military correspondent explained. – At the same time, we should probably take into account the experience of Avdiivka. In particular, FABs played a big role during the assault. And it seems to me that in this case they can also be of serious help.”

“Let me remind you that this happened in Avdeevka - the Ukrainian Armed Forces transferred the 3rd assault brigade there too late, and it could no longer change the situation.

The period of urban fighting in this locality did not last longer than two weeks. However, FABs played a big role. It seems to me that such tactics should be used by Russian forces in the Ugledar direction.”

Combat operations to eliminate enemy fortified areas have probably already been developed, says military expert Alexei Leonkov. “To complete the main task, we just need to wait for the right moment when the risk of serious losses on our part is minimized,” he points out.

According to Leonkov, the tactics of the Russian Armed Forces are also built on the basis of the task of protecting civilians. “We understand that people remain in populated areas. This is what happened in Avdeevka, for example. Later, special groups took them to a safe place, because, as experience shows, as soon as the enemy leaves their positions, he immediately begins to fire indiscriminately. Therefore, when thinking through the course of the operation, our command takes this fact into account,” Leonkov emphasized.

Russian troops do not use the tactics of a direct, frontal attack on a fortified populated area, emphasizes Alexander Bartosh, corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences. “They adhere to the logic of encircling the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This forces the enemy, deprived of the means of transporting ammunition and other components necessary for resistance, to withdraw troops,” he explained.

This tactic has proven its effectiveness in Avdeevka, the interlocutor emphasized. “I think we will see a similar development of events in Ugledar,” sums up Bartosh.

https://vz.ru/politics/2024/2/22/1254733.html

Kiko wrote:

At the same time, the assault on Vugledar is unlikely to be protracted, the interlocutor believes. “There are no fortifications in the city like those that were in Artemovsk or Avdeevka. Yes, I admit that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can rely on the Yuzhnodonbasskaya mine, but it is located at a sufficient distance from Ugledar,” the speaker explained.

Yes after Donetsk is finished, the left bank will not see protracted fighting

There are no big fortifications after Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Konstantinovka crescent

And as he explains, these smaller villages tend to be isolated without large industrial sectors near them to create a cohesive defense

That's why IMO FABS will be a game changer for liberating the rest of donbass, but once it falls, the rest of the war will resume the traditional maneuver orientation for Russian troops

Because the islands of fortified positions that flank one another and provide strong defensive positions do not exist behind Kramatorsk

There are only 2 major cities which are Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk, and they are hundreds of kilometers apart

The rest of the left bank will be a quick affair after Donbass is dismantled

Hole wrote:

At the moment, Su-34 can carry two FAB1500 with correction modules. 

Or 4 FAB-500.

Each SU-34 can carry 10T.

Because of the modules with wings and control surfaces you can´t put
a bunch of them onto a multiple ejector rack as dumb bombs.

The goal of using guided munitions is to use less munitions.

I say this with caution, but the forum's sane sections seem to be quietly optimistic with the direction of the operation right now. I think th next 6months should see significant progress if not the actual collapse of the Bandera regime. Sadly fighting the war in the Donbass means this is actually the hardest area to liberate in some ways. Hence my suspicion the Bandera regime should have been suffocated far further West, far earlier, with far more troops. Instead of incursions to Kharkov and Kiev with small troop numbers and a "nicely nicely" approach. But anyway, the collapse of Bandera fortifications SHOULD make the job much easier over coming weeks and months.

A meme in case of important negotiations (has a direct relation to the events taking place).

Wonder if I can find it after a while 

 transferred the 3rd assault brigade there too late, and it could no longer change the situation.

Nobody could have changed the situation.

Hole wrote:

At the moment, Su-34 can carry two FAB1500 with correction modules. 

Or 4 FAB-500.

Each SU-34 can carry 10T.

Because of the modules with wings and control surfaces you can´t put
a bunch of them onto a multiple ejector rack as dumb bombs.

I am sure they can build a rack that can allow it to loft the full 10T. I don't see why 2x 1500 and 2x 500 is not possible. Its probably due to only some hardpoints being ready with the wiring and the electronics to manage and target a full load not yet in place. And, frankly NOT NECESSARY at this point. Now they have some experience with these, they will come up with a V2 that is easier to maufacture and decide if its desirable to have an SU-34 loft 20 FAB500s or just have it carry 4. Plus the bombs are also changing with the Thermobaric FAB500 now entering production. I can see a case made for 6 FAB500s, 3 FAB 1500s or 3K and 1 FAB or 6K. (that will have to be centerline mounted of course). If you look at the kit, it has a lot of welding on the case, which can easily be a casting or even a stamping. heck maybe an FRP moulding. So these kits will be made in the 10's of thousands once the full rate production version is done.Needless to say there will also be a microturbine version. There is also a lot that needs to be done to the avionics to deal with the assymetry when dropping a larg single bomb of the wing and with PGMs this is much more common.

This is excellent time for Ukraine to implement widespread conscription and flood the frontline with bodies

Things are looking good on CNN do hopefully it happens sooner rather than later

I am sure they can build a rack that can allow it to loft the full 10T

Seems at this point the electronics are the main bottleneck.
The next step of the implementation are 6 or even 8 FAB-500 wit guidance/glide kit.
Maybe at some point the Su-34 will be able to carry any number and combination of
modernised bombs.
You could put 2 FAB-1500 under the belly + 2 under the engines + 6 FAB-500 under the wings.
There are racks for 2 or 4 bombs that could be used under the belly or the wings.
So there is a lot of potential.
It would be even better if they started the conversion of the Tu-22M3.

Dmitry the Enforcer has said his word. The WHOLE of Novorossiya, including Odessa - as well as Kiev. The Ukrainian people must choose: either prosperity as part of an integrated structure with Russia, or eternal war and annihilation. About NATO: I don't care what their politicians say or think about me: relations won't be restored for decades, and many of them will simply die before I have to interact with them.
The map of the exchange of nuclear strikes with NATO countries is currently on the table, and this is not a joke.
Russia does not care about the opinion of the West - SMO will continue until all goals are fully achieved. The power of the Kiev clique must be destroyed.
https://ria.ru/20240222/medvedev-1928975798.html

Firebird wrote: Hence my suspicion the Bandera regime should have been suffocated far further West, far earlier, with far more troops. Instead of incursions to Kharkov and Kiev with small troop numbers and a "nicely nicely" approach.

There was no troops capable of doing things big way. There was this professional army which didn't have men count more than 250k. Mobilization would have been noticed also in Ukraine and they would have launched their planned offensive immediately to donbas. At the same time they would have strengthened their defencies everywhere, mobilised lot of folk and begged all arm supplys in advance. That would have done the job even more bloodier and hard for russians. No they lurked in, because nobody didn't expect them to do it such a small grouping. Mobilization in russia took around 6 to 9 months until the troops were really ready for combat. Still MoD is equipping them and still there are problems with equipment here and there.

A full bore attack on Ukria would have involved at least 3 million troops and massive civilian casualties.

The Russian government chose the SMO option. I don't hear endless wailing about slaughter of Ukrian civilians so this approach is working.

American Abrams tanks still won’t reach the front, but the M1150 ABV engineering vehicle created on its basis has reached the front and has already burned out. It was destroyed by tankers of the 21st Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in the Avdeevka area. Moreover, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have literally several such machines.

https://t.me/bmpd_cast/18979

PapaDragon wrote:
This is excellent time for Ukraine to implement widespread conscription and flood the frontline with bodies

Things are looking good on CNN do hopefully it happens sooner rather than later

Widespread conscription....... They already have, and the last wave consisted of amputees, people with mental health issues, people with learning disabilities, 14-15yrs old boys, old men over 70yrs old, and women, what would the next wave consist of????????? Wildlife?(animals)Or hiring a necromancer to raise the dead it's about only options they got left

GEROMAN -- time will tell - --
@GeromanAT
.
1h

Today at around 19.00, a missile strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed the airborne troops of the 22nd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the settlement Memrik (area of the Selidovo training ground) west of Avdeevka.

More than 120 enemy personnel - 200. Corpses are still being retrieved.

Firebird wrote: I say this with caution, but the forum's sane sections seem to be quietly optimistic with the direction of the operation right now. I think th next 6months should see significant progress if not the actual collapse of the Bandera regime. Sadly fighting the war in the Donbass means this is actually the hardest area to liberate in some ways. Hence my suspicion the Bandera regime should have been suffocated far further West, far earlier, with far more troops. Instead of incursions to Kharkov and Kiev with small troop numbers and a "nicely nicely" approach. But anyway, the collapse of Bandera fortifications SHOULD make the job much easier over coming weeks and months.

There is truth in what you write, but it ignores probaly the biggest factor in this conflict - the geopolitical angle, and the need for Russia to cultivate solid friendships (and alliances) with other regional powers and the vast mass of the Global South as a counterweight to the inevitable financial-econoimic blitzkrieg thet the Nazi West was always going to unleash once Russia was finally foprced to take a hard-power stand against the NTO/globalist encrouchment. It is no good defeating the Ukro fascist regime if Russia then succumbs to economic collapse and poltiical isolation as a result of alienating the global community and getting painted by Russias enemies as a "rogue terror state".

I think Russia has handled this conflict with skill and wisdom, and its only now becoming apparent how much the West has screwed the pooch with this campaign. Europe is getting hammered and de-militarised, its economy looking increasingly shakey (UK and Germany both in recession) and its "elites" visibly losing their shit as their well-laid plans get shoved up their well-laid arses by a Russian bear that is out of its cave, fully awake, very grumpy, and smashing the crap out of everything that annoys it. Sure, they have made some mistakes, that is inevitable, but when all this is over the only thing that will matter is how the chips stack after the final hand is dealt. Russia can maintain this pressure for years if required and her leadership now have steedly purpose to see the job done, while the NATOstani collective lacks the ability to keep up and their leaders are a incompetent bunch of empty-suit apparatchiks who lack ability & courage.

Fck the US. Fck NATO. Above all, fck the god-damned banderite scum-regime. People think that Germany was de-nazified after WW2? Pfftt... they ain't seen nothing yet....

d_taddei2 wrote:Widespread conscription....... They already have, and the last wave consisted of amputees, people with mental health issues, people with learning disabilities, 14-15yrs old boys, old men over 70yrs old, and women, what would the next wave consist of????????? Wildlife?(animals)Or hiring a necromancer to raise the dead it's about only options they got left

Banderite conscription officer, Feb 2024

Russians captured Sieverne and they have entered Ivaniske and Another patriot system destroyed,

lyle6 wrote:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1760567384744615993

This made me laugh so damn hard. A grown man filming himself cry, piss, shit and cum on camera over his nazi butt buddies getting massacred has got to make it on a highlight reel when we win.

What a whinging, whining little cvnt.
All that's wrong with today's twitter brigades.
"LOOK AT ME! LOOK AT ME! LOOK AT HOW UPSET I AM ON CAMERA!"

My generation of South African troops would have laughed at him, told him nobody gives a fvck, and used him as a mockery plaything, or made to do something useful like wash clothes or cook or something.

A hysterical girls blouse.

speaking of mercenaries https://uploads.kiwifarms.st/data/video/5736/5736893-bc038b1a1d9b2a82fc4baffec20fdba8.mp4

And just like that water, power and gas are back on the menu for Surovikin's boys. Have fun assembling these FPV drones in the cold and dark you retards.

The truck mounted howitzer that NORINCO has unveiled will be ideal for Russia because it will allow Russia to target several areas simultaneously and immediately flee from the scene before Ukrainian Air Force can engage them.

Russia has already established air supremacy so it will be extremely difficult for the Ukrainian Air Force to target these truck mounted howitzers from stand off range.

The goal of using guided munitions is to use less munitions.

The benefit of the Su-34 is the weight of the bombs it can deliver... up to 1.5 tons, rather than the total weight of bombs it can carry... just the same with the Tu-22M3M the fact that it should be able to carry 3 ton and 5 ton bombs make it a potent weapon too... when combined with glide kits to add precision and standoff release options makes them even better.

The MiG-35 should be able to carry 1.5 ton bombs too... making it a useful numbers plane if the rumours of serial production are true.

Hence my suspicion the Bandera regime should have been suffocated far further West, far earlier, with far more troops. Instead of incursions to Kharkov and Kiev with small troop numbers and a "nicely nicely" approach.

The intent was to damage the west, which required a long drawn out conflict, so the attack on Kiev and Kharkov meant they could attack with a much smaller much more mobile force. Without troops near Kiev the enemy could concentrate all their men and resources on the Donbass front line and simply overwhelmed the smaller Russian force.

Using a smaller force has dragged the conflict out, emptied the pockets and resources of HATO countries, made the west look guilty, and killed a lot of nazis.

I am sure they can build a rack that can allow it to loft the full 10T. I don't see why 2x 1500 and 2x 500 is not possible.

It is not about what is possible, it is about what is necessary.

You could hitch a trailer to any MBT and fill it with 200 extra main tank gun rounds and 10,000 extra rounds of coaxial machine gun ammo and a few thousand extra litres of fuel... but the effect on mobility would be horrendous... it just makes sense to withdraw when you are getting low on something to rearm and go back into the fight.

Dmitry the Enforcer has said his word.

I never really liked Medvedev because he seemed even more pro west than Putin was sometimes... and I understand they had to try to get along with the west for the good of Russia but now it is obvious the west is the enemy and the west has chosen to make it so.

Now I like Medvedev... he is no longer naive but is still interested in what is best for Russia and what is best for Russia is ties and trade with the rest of the world.

What a whinging, whining little cvnt.
All that's wrong with today's twitter brigades.
"LOOK AT ME! LOOK AT ME! LOOK AT HOW UPSET I AM ON CAMERA!"

My generation of South African troops would have laughed at him, told him nobody gives a fvck, and used him as a mockery plaything, or made to do something useful like wash clothes or cook or something.

A hysterical girls blouse.

Honestly... a guy in the field who feels betrayed by the people who funded this war and started this war and sent him to this war.... has never happened before in the history of war that front line troops got betrayed like that.... never... The guys that start wars and make money from wars always back up and support and look after the idiots who they send to fight their wars for them... especially when they don't understand they are the bad guys...

speaking of mercenaries

There was no need to repeat that conversation to post that dude...

And just like that water, power and gas are back on the menu for Surovikin's boys. Have fun assembling these FPV drones in the cold and dark you retards.

We like to do this important work because it keeps us out of the trenches... you would think old people and children would be assembling the drones and these young men would be at the front line using them. Instead the old people and children are on the front line while these heroes hide in the rear in relative safety.

The truck mounted howitzer that NORINCO has unveiled will be ideal for Russia because it will allow Russia to target several areas simultaneously and immediately flee from the scene before Ukrainian Air Force can engage them.

They have a range of truck mounted weapons entering service, including the 2S43 152mm and the 2S40 120mm gun. They are also introducing the 2S41 in 82mm calibre on a 4X4 vehicle too... not to mention their new artillery rockets of various calibres.

The Ukrainian air force was never a threat to the Russian artillery, it was enemy artillery and enemy drones which always remain a threat...