In Ukraine, they started talking about the danger of the Ukrainian Armed Forces falling into pincers near Ugledar. All this is happening against the background of the advance of Russian troops in the Donetsk direction. Recently, the Russian Armed Forces managed to take Avdeevka and the village of Pobeda, which significantly increases the maneuverability of the army. What are the features of the advance on this sector of the front and why could Ugledar become the next target of the Russian Armed Forces?
The Ukrainian Armed Forces may find themselves in pincers near Ugledar, located in the Volnovakha region of the DPR. This was reported by Ukrainian war correspondent Yulia Kiriyenko, RIA Novosti reports . “Avdeevka is everything. Kurakhovo get ready. There was no need to pay attention to this area. If the Russian troops advance there, then we will have another Artemovsk,” she said.
According to her, one of the battalions “may already be in a perimeter defense” due to “subsidence” on the flanks and the withdrawal of neighboring units under pressure from superior formations of the Russian Armed Forces. In this regard, Kiriyenko called on the command of the operational-strategic group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “Tavria” to build a second line of defense here as soon as possible.
Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported in its Telegram channel that Russian troops, with the help of bomber aircraft and artillery strikes in the areas of Ugledar, Urozhayny, Staromayorsky, Ravnopol and Priyutny, destroyed three temporary deployment points, nine control points for unmanned aircraft and two electronic warfare stations "Bukovel".
In another message , the department reported on the defeat of areas where manpower accumulated in the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of Vugledar. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces managed to take control of the village of Pobeda in the Donetsk direction. The enemy's 92nd assault, 79th air assault, and 46th airmobile brigades were also defeated.
Previously, experts had already predicted the possibility of active advance in the direction of Ugledar. Thus, Alexander Perendzhiev, a member of the expert council of “Officers of Russia,” noted that the capture of Avdeevka can ensure the implementation of various maneuvers in the territories of the DPR, still occupied by the enemy.
However, at present, Russian experts tend to describe the situation more pragmatically. In their opinion, Ugledar can be captured in pincers, but only if a number of conditions are met. In particular, for this it is necessary to liberate Novomikhailovka. And only after the liberation of this section of the front, the Russian Armed Forces will be able to concentrate in more comfortable conditions on capturing the city of Kurakhovo.
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces hold Vugledar mainly due to geographically more advantageous positions. We tried to storm the city from the south, from the lowlands, and the enemy was on the heights, which allowed him to stop the advance of Russian troops more than a year ago. Since then, the front line has been relatively stable. The situation changed with our capture of the village of Pobeda south of Maryinka,” noted military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko.
According to him, Russian fighters continue to build on their success and are moving along the route in the direction of Konstantinovka. “The goal is to eliminate the fortified area Novomikhailovka - Paraskovievka - Konstantinovka. After this, we have the opportunity to reach Ugledar from the northeast of the village. This development of events creates a serious threat to the enemy group,” the interlocutor emphasized.
In this direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are less protected, explains Onufrienko. “To the north and northeast of Ugledar there are heights that neutralize the enemy’s advantages. Considering the fact that the Ukrainian command rarely withdraws troops from populated areas in a timely manner, allowing them to be encircled, the prospects for the Ugledar group to fall into the “pincers” are extremely high. But this will not happen soon, although the risks for the Ukrainian Armed Forces are growing,” the military expert believes.
At the same time, the assault on Vugledar is unlikely to be protracted, the interlocutor believes. “There are no fortifications in the city like those that were in Artemovsk or Avdeevka. Yes, I admit that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can rely on the Yuzhnodonbasskaya mine, but it is located at a sufficient distance from Ugledar,” the speaker explained.
The Ukrainian military will have a hard time in the city. “Our aviation was active in Pobeda and Avdeevka. I think that the number of sorties, as well as the use of FABs, will increase,” Onufrienko clarifies.
War correspondent Fedor Gromov also admits that the enemy group in Vugledar can be captured in pincers. “But this will become possible only when Russian troops take Novomikhailovka,” he clarified, adding that without physical control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ supply routes, there can be no talk of encircling the enemy.
How long and persistently the enemy will try to maintain its positions in Ugledar depends on the ability of the Ukrainian military leadership to support this group, the interlocutor believes. “If the Ukrainian Armed Forces receive shells, if additional units are deployed, then this, of course, will delay the liberation of the city. In a sense, the situation that happened in Artemovsk may repeat itself,” Gromov explained.
“If the formations do not receive the appropriate resources, everything could end in a matter of weeks,” the military correspondent explained. – At the same time, we should probably take into account the experience of Avdiivka. In particular, FABs played a big role during the assault. And it seems to me that in this case they can also be of serious help.”
“Let me remind you that this happened in Avdeevka - the Ukrainian Armed Forces transferred the 3rd assault brigade there too late, and it could no longer change the situation.
The period of urban fighting in this locality did not last longer than two weeks. However, FABs played a big role. It seems to me that such tactics should be used by Russian forces in the Ugledar direction.”
Combat operations to eliminate enemy fortified areas have probably already been developed, says military expert Alexei Leonkov. “To complete the main task, we just need to wait for the right moment when the risk of serious losses on our part is minimized,” he points out.
According to Leonkov, the tactics of the Russian Armed Forces are also built on the basis of the task of protecting civilians. “We understand that people remain in populated areas. This is what happened in Avdeevka, for example. Later, special groups took them to a safe place, because, as experience shows, as soon as the enemy leaves their positions, he immediately begins to fire indiscriminately. Therefore, when thinking through the course of the operation, our command takes this fact into account,” Leonkov emphasized.
Russian troops do not use the tactics of a direct, frontal attack on a fortified populated area, emphasizes Alexander Bartosh, corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences. “They adhere to the logic of encircling the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This forces the enemy, deprived of the means of transporting ammunition and other components necessary for resistance, to withdraw troops,” he explained.
This tactic has proven its effectiveness in Avdeevka, the interlocutor emphasized. “I think we will see a similar development of events in Ugledar,” sums up Bartosh.
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