2024 Iran–Israel conflict

The best course of action for Iran : ( 1 ) Democratic reforms , to establish a democratic Republic . ( 2 ) Subsequent laws that bring about resistance economy . ( 3 ) Subsequent laws to establish nuclear deterrent and ICBM . ( 4 ) Cleaning out the compromised security Services . ( 5 ) New more effective , non sectarian , foreign policy . ( 6 ) Rapid reaction force to operate outside borders .

At that time , Iran can easily and directly engage against enemies from any corner of the world . At the present time only limited action is possible , with severe consequences for Iran . A mirror response is best . With providing financial and technical support to the resistance axis . A limited number of ground troops can be sent to South Lebanon , if Israeli ground troops manage to invade . The Palestinian situation needs a major war and large ground troops and nukes , occupation of Israel . Not possible now .

nomadski wrote:
A proportionate response in this case , would not be an overt one , using missiles and such ,  targeting the entire Israel and legitimizing Yank intervention . It would be a mirror response to target a high ranking Zionist , visiting an allied country , in a similar manner .

I'm repeat an earlier suggestion of last April: Send a submarine or two to ambush positions near Israel, and try to sink a modern zionist sub. Or some other warship or large merchant ship. Officially Tehran would deny responsibility but widespread suspicion may suffice for a feeling of vengeance achieved.

Work by example. Just offload a number of semi-submersible drones from a "neutral" freighter and let them go on the hunt.

Assume only Israeli aircraft now operating at scalping pricing no doubt being Jewish. This leaves a large number of Israelis who might have hoped to flee trapped to face what is to come. Couldn't happen to a nicer people

Not much fruit and veg export now.

Whatever happens Israel is now an economic basket case with little future. Those in power who realise this may believe that they may as well go out in a religious final days scenario.

Newspaper articles collection
@NewsArticleColl

Intl airlines cancel flights to Israel further threatening battered industries

Revenge. Lots of angry Palestinians and lots of targets. 

This is like the end of apartheid in South Africa but without a plan for peace and unlike there, the attackers sure of martyrdom if they die. This could raise a suicide attack to a new level. Every Israeli will be looking over their shoulder now.

Wonder if all the Israeli mobile phone infrastructure is hardened? Hezbollah seems to be getting adept at hitting hardened IAF comms systems across the north.

 

IDF military radio confirms: Amid Hezbollah & Iran tensions, Israeli government ministers have been handed emergency satellite phones due to fear of damage to the phone network

First reported by @TheBelaaz

Interesting possibility

New details have emerged in the Israeli covert assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was staying in Tehran to attend the country's presidential inauguration events.

Iran and Hamas' backers considered Haniyeh to be essentially akin to a top foreign diplomat or even head of state, and so at times Haniyeh was known to travel openly in places like Qatar, Iran, or other Gulf states. And yet the bombing that took is life is being widely viewed in Iran as an utterly humiliating security failure for the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which was hosting the Hamas leader.

The NY Times is reporting Thursday of events the day prior that he was assassinated by "an explosive device covertly smuggled into the Tehran guesthouse where he was staying, according to seven Middle Eastern officials, including two Iranians, and an American official."
Compound where Haniyeh was killed, via NYT

"The bomb had been hidden approximately two months ago in the guesthouse, according to five of the Middle Eastern officials," the report continues. "The guesthouse is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and is part of a large compound, known as Neshat, in an upscale neighborhood of northern Tehran."

Likely among the "seven Middle Eastern officials" cited as sources for the report include some Israeli intel officials themselves, given the level of specified details. No doubt they are 'spiking the football' and want the Iranians and the world to know the astounding level of success they had in penetrating IRGC security and protocol.

For an Israeli asset to be able to access an Iranian diplomatic house in Neshat - the upscale neighborhood of northern Tehran where the bombing took place - and then be able to pinpoint down to the moment the target be in a specific room is almost unbelievable and the stuff of a James Bond spy thriller.

"The bomb was detonated remotely, the five officials said, once it was confirmed that he was inside his room at the guesthouse," NYT continues, nothing that the blast also took out Haniyeh's bodyguard but left alive Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah, who was literally staying in the next room over.

"The explosion shook the building, shattered some windows and caused the partial collapse of an exterior wall, according to the two Iranian officials, members of the Revolutionary Guards briefed on the incident," the report continues. A widely circulating photograph also appears to confirm this description of events.

Rest of article at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/haniyeh-killed-bomb-placed-tehran-house-2-months-ago-astounding-intel-penetration-irgc

ALAMO wrote:And how in detail Iranian subs would find themselves off shore of Israel?
Via Suez?

Not the Mediterranean coast and not via Suez but in the Red Sea near Ras mohammed.

The Iranian right wing Hezb -Allah , forming the core support of administration , is almost unanimously against any direct attack on Israel . They are concerned with improving security and see this assassination as a failing by Iranian security . Almost impossible to believe the published version that " ...an air launched projectile , " was responsible . Since the explosion happened only when the target ,was in own room and on their own bed , when small  explosion occurred . There being an inside job is undeniable . Again why cover the building with fabric ? The attacker knows anyway , but the public do not ! And any revelation that points to the small size of explosions , far below a military round , would more directly point the finger at an infiltration .

I must say again , that Iran should adopt a proportional and defensive posture , regarding Israel . This would have meant assassinating Israeli nuclear scientists and sabotage of nuclear infrastructure and destroying Israeli Embassy and taking out Israeli military Brass and now their leadership . Under international law is allowed . Firing missiles has been tried without effect . The last time Yanks and co came to the rescue . This time they will do The same . Is Iran going to engage them as they say ? Then Iran will get into direct fight with them and Israel , at the same time . Does Iran have nukes ? Is Iran ready ?

The Israelis may escalate , will escalate . But it is better to show that Iran did not initiate and only reacted in defence . This makes it harder for Yanks , politically to intervene . It will not prove to be a deterrent , teach them a lesson or make them regret . It will largely satisfy the home crowd , that something is being done . A feel good factor . The resistance axis is in an existential battle with Israel . The only solution is total defeat of one side by the other . Until Iran is better armed with nukes and fighter planes , and can project power long distance , the best it can do is support it's allies by finances and technical help .

JohninMK wrote:Interesting possibility

New details have emerged in the Israeli covert assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was staying in Tehran to attend the country's presidential inauguration events.

Iran and Hamas' backers considered Haniyeh to be essentially akin to a top foreign diplomat or even head of state, and so at times Haniyeh was known to travel openly in places like Qatar, Iran, or other Gulf states. And yet the bombing that took is life is being widely viewed in Iran as an utterly humiliating security failure for the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which was hosting the Hamas leader.

The NY Times is reporting Thursday of events the day prior that he was assassinated by "an explosive device covertly smuggled into the Tehran guesthouse where he was staying, according to seven Middle Eastern officials, including two Iranians, and an American official."
Compound where Haniyeh was killed, via NYT

"The bomb had been hidden approximately two months ago in the guesthouse, according to five of the Middle Eastern officials," the report continues. "The guesthouse is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and is part of a large compound, known as Neshat, in an upscale neighborhood of northern Tehran."

Likely among the "seven Middle Eastern officials" cited as sources for the report include some Israeli intel officials themselves, given the level of specified details. No doubt they are 'spiking the football' and want the Iranians and the world to know the astounding level of success they had in penetrating IRGC security and protocol.

For an Israeli asset to be able to access an Iranian diplomatic house in Neshat - the upscale neighborhood of northern Tehran where the bombing took place - and then be able to pinpoint down to the moment the target be in a specific room is almost unbelievable and the stuff of a James Bond spy thriller.

"The bomb was detonated remotely, the five officials said, once it was confirmed that he was inside his room at the guesthouse," NYT continues, nothing that the blast also took out Haniyeh's bodyguard but left alive Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah, who was literally staying in the next room over.

"The explosion shook the building, shattered some windows and caused the partial collapse of an exterior wall, according to the two Iranian officials, members of the Revolutionary Guards briefed on the incident," the report continues. A widely circulating photograph also appears to confirm this description of events.

Rest of article at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/haniyeh-killed-bomb-placed-tehran-house-2-months-ago-astounding-intel-penetration-irgc

Rings a bell. October 12, 1984 - Brighton

Democratic reforms , to establish a democratic Republic .

What is democracy?

Right now they have a group of men deciding everything and they get their power from their religious position.

In the US the power is in the hands of men who got their power by being heads of companies or merely being a family member in a very very rich family and they decide everything.

Honestly real democracy where everyone actually gets a say and the government listens to the people simply does not exist anywhere... and the sad fact is that most of the time decisions you make are what you want or like rather than what you need and what actually makes sense.

Sometimes having a democracy is a bad thing because people are stupid and selfish and wont vote for the greater good of the country and their fellow countrymen, they will just vote for their own gains even if that means selling out the country to rich powerful foreign countries.

GarryB wrote:Honestly real democracy where everyone actually gets a say and the government listens to the people simply does not exist anywhere... and the sad fact is that most of the time decisions you make are what you want or like rather than what you need and what actually makes sense.

The countries with the governments closest to democracies in my opinion are Iceland and Switzerland. But even then they have to bend the knee to the US.

GarryB wrote:
Sometimes having a democracy is a bad thing because people are stupid and selfish and wont vote for the greater good of the country and their fellow countrymen, they will just vote for their own gains…

One thing that astounded me c 1989 was Fukuyama's notion that "history had ended" with democracy the perpetual victor. Absolute nonsense IMO, then and now. Far from being the great panacea of modern times, democracy is in fact the antithesis of the solution, a dangerous luxury that has got to go.
Indeed too many people are irresponsible and selfish. It's usually "me uber alles" and to hell with any greater Whole or cause--the country, the environment, the planet….It's seldom possible to impose even the most modest and essential sacrifices. To cite just one example, try to win an election by cutting spending or raising taxes sufficiently to end the deficits and the specter of eventual bankruptcy.
In The Twilight of Democracy Kennon said the system is broken and we need to call in the experts. Indeed what is needed is an authoritarian, meritocratic system.

even if that means selling out the country to rich powerful foreign countries.

In my view, the egregious example is submission to AIPAC--a bunch of traitors who consider the US just a milch cow for their favorite foreign country.

The US is a perfect demonstration that universal suffrage means jack shit. Supposedly Stalin said that it is the people doing the ballot counting that
decide. It is sort of right, but it is much worse. The sheeple electorate are:

1) prone to advertisement propaganda which is why the size of the campaign budget in the USA translates into likelihood of winning

2) given no real choice as all of the parties on the ballot are controlled and serve other masters

There are moments such as 2020 when ballot stuffing is necessary, but for most of the time this sham process is orchestrated well enough that
there is no need. So Stalin is wrong about counting votes.

The groveling before Netanyahoo by the US Congress and Senate is over the top obscenity. They are falling over themselves proving their
loyalty to their peculiar master. If these politicians were real, they would not be behaving this way. There is enough reason not to invite
Bibi to Washington in the first place and certainly not to fete him.

kvs wrote:The groveling before Netanyahoo by the US Congress and Senate is over the top obscenity.
   

Very well said but substitute "House" for "Congress."

Ideal democracy may not exist now , but relative democracy does exist . It is a question of degree . A political party or President , who is elected by 50% of the total votes cast , and total votes cast is 50% of entire voter population , carries 25% of the total voter population and lacks legitimacy or has only partial legitimacy . The Iranian revolution was won through extreme and widespread violence , giving a minority an absolute monopoly on power . The religious right wing , dominating Iranian politics , can not reflect the national will or guide the country in the right direction . Iran will remain a weak country , in every respect , unless changes are brought about by reforms or by revolution .

Highly unlikely the attack on Haniyeh , could have been done , entirely without intricate knowledge of his movements in his apartment . Tracking via an App does not give required accuracy , impossible to know his position within the apartment at precise moment a projectile entered his window . Also the resulting explosion too small for a travelling ATGW . Other occupants of apartment in other room unharmed , points this out . The most likely case is a small device planted beforehand . I must also say that the Israelis may not have been the only party with a motive to eliminate him . The objective was not simply to kill him , but to push Iran into a war against the Israelis and America . Therefore Iranians themselves or Palestinians or Americans or European nations , could all be involved .

If it was large military cargo you would be seeing An-124 not the Il-96-400T. The Il-96-400T is basically used to transport palletized cargo.

Indeed what is needed is an authoritarian, meritocratic system.

Most of the time most people are happy as long as the economy is going well.

But considering US laws wouldn't you say any US president in their second term don't care about reelection so they are more free in their second term to create change for the better because it is not like they are going to get kicked out of office for it... they have to leave anyway.

The problem for America is that the problems are engrained and it would take more than two terms to make things better.

Starting the process would make things worse to start with which means you wont get a second term, the only real chance is to make small changes, subtle and not noticed small changes in your first term and then in your second term you can make big changes... but the chances are the changes will just mess things up initially and the next president will simply claim they failed and roll them all back before they can start to do any good.

Equally being president is not enough, you need to control both the Senate and the Congress, which is why independent presidents are useless because the Senate and Congress will never be independent controlled and democrats and republicans wont help an independent even if it saved the entire country...

In my view, the egregious example is submission to AIPAC--a bunch of traitors who consider the US just a milch cow for their favorite foreign country.

And that is the key.... western countries don't care they are controlled by a foreign country... the US, and the US doesn't care if Israel manipulates them either... it is when China or Russia is hinted at trying they wet themselves and go ape shit.

Of course I would object to being a prisoner in my own home but sex slave to a super hot woman might be appealing if she was fun and not crazy nasty.

1) prone to advertisement propaganda which is why the size of the campaign budget in the USA translates into likelihood of winning

Lack of air time to independent candidates also effects their low votes... here in New Zealand media outlets are required to give equal air time to all candidates and that is for debates and political messages. Different groups get funding for the purpose so money or lack of it does not stop someone from being heard.

Ideal democracy may not exist now , but relative democracy does exist . It is a question of degree .

Democracy is overrated. Take money out of the equation in terms of bribery, and ensure your politicians are interested in your country and your people first and anything else is secondary and you don't need 100 candidates and you don't need everyone to vote.

There are people who pay attention to politicians and listen to what they say but such people are rare and few will listen to all the politicians, they will listen to the politicians in the party they traditionally vote for and if they seem OK or they recognise the name they will vote for them.

Many people will vote against someone they don't like. Others will vote for a face or name or a gender.

Most green party members are nutters who would rather everyone lives in a hole in the ground to save the planet... most farmers I know are green too but would never vote for the green party because they are detached from reality and don't care about people.

Farmers work with animals including the butchering of them for food... most green people say they hate animals, but they spend most of their time protecting them and feeding them and keeping them healthy.

What I am saying is that in the communist system if you were interested in politics... the way things are run... you joined the communist party and you got involved in politics and you voted for people. If you weren't you didn't, but if you had a problem you could still go to your local communist person and talk to them about problems or issues and have them talk to the higher ups to get it sorted. Commisars were shot on sight during WWII by the Germans but of course there were bad ones but also good ones that almost worked like social workers in the military using political power to help their fellow soldiers... but such stories are not popular in the west... but that is the equivalent of the Russians claiming all catholic priests are child molesters or are guilty of moving child molesters around as they get caught instead of caring about the children in their care they worry about the reputation of the organisation. I would say the fact that you protected child molesters and moved them to evade justice is actually worse than the admission that you might have some.

I don't know what a perfect system is for a country but I do know it really depends on who is in power and how much they like transparency and anti corruption and law and order.

Putin has been good for Russia because he is all about the rules and doing the right thing even if it is not obviously beneficial at the time.

I think their mix of democracy and free market economy, but also nationalisation of things to prevent abuse or corruption and to ensure the country benefits from its own resources instead of some foreign company with the technology to extract it.

Government run things don't have to be corrupt and inefficient. Privately owned things siphon money and resources out of the country and often sell raw materials undervalue to friends companies so they can make good profits too all and the expense of the average Russian.

lancelot wrote:If it was large military cargo you would be seeing An-124 not the Il-96-400T. The Il-96-400T is basically used to transport palletized cargo.

My bet is at least 100 Geran 2. Israeli are heavily jamming GPS and Russians have upgraded the Kometa GPS/Glonass guidance system that can resist very well such jamming. Iranian drones are uzing less adanced such stuff.

GarryB wrote:
you need to control both the Senate and the Congress, which is why independent presidents are useless because the Senate and Congress

Should be either House and Senate (which are both part of congress) or just Congress.