Russian special military operation in Ukraine #56

ALAMO wrote:

Isos wrote:
Where are the il-38 ? I haven't seen any pic or recording of their use in ukraine.

And what would be it's task out  there?

At least directing proper interceptor to the area. Or doing typical ELINT job with Novella suite. There always use for such aircraft there.

Il-38 also have the endurance for patrol, which will complicate Ukies planning. If ukies use some form of Mothership to carry and control their drone, Il-38 can help locate them

The Russians have lost a small number of aircraft and a few more have been damaged on airfields.

One side in this war lost over 1.000 planes and helicopters,
the other maybe 50, including friendly fire, accidents, pilot errors, debris from shot down missiles falling to the ground...
But the side that is shooting down 90+% of all air targets and is winnig the war by a wiiiiiiiide margin against the whole
of NATO+ hiding behind a proxy is being blamed all the time for everything.

Can you stop being rational? It is racist!

Putin has ruled out any attack on Kharkov while he is now in China. It's good that Kiev is reporting this directly...

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20829799

MD
@distant_earth83
Following the night attack aftermath:
1. The fire at the oil refinery in Tuapse was extinguished in the morning.
2. Repairs to the "Sevastopol" substation will take about a day, localized power outages are possible in the city, school classes are canceled today.
3. In Novorossiysk, the aftermath of the fires from the downed drones has been extinguished.
4. During the defense against the attack, 95 drones and 6 maritime UAVs were destroyed.

Source: https://t.me/boris_rozhin/1

The start of societal collapse. Then they want to officially call up 25 year olds.

Jacque Line
@MissJacque_line
Boris Filatov, the mayor of Dnepropetrovsk complains public transport and essential utility providers will soon cease operating due to the lack of staff as men continue to be hunted down by the TCC.

MD
@distant_earth83
Cloudy summary of the night (evening) attacks:

Against the backdrop of continued advances of the Russian Armed Forces in the north, the main airstrikes by aviation and drones targeted the Kharkiv region. From 23:00 onwards, Ukrainian monitoring resources reported activity in the region, and from 00:04 onwards, rocket danger was declared in the region.
The head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, Sinegov, reported 5 explosions as a result of drone attacks in the Kharkiv districts of Holodnogorsky, Osnoviansky, and Novobavarsky. Mayor of Kharkiv, Terekhov, later reported two more explosions in the city (likely ballistic landing).

🟠In addition to this, there were reports of explosions in local chats in the Poltava region between 23:10 and 23:50, and in the Vinnytsia region between 02:44 and 03:30 (no specifics yet).

🧭Russian air defense had much more work to do.
According to the Ministry of Defense, over 100 drones were destroyed or intercepted overnight. Let's go through the details:

Over the Crimean Peninsula - FIFTY-ONE. Sounds of explosions were heard over Sevastopol and Balaklava. Sevastopol Governor Razvozhaev reported that as a result of drone debris falling, equipment at the Sevastopol substation and a substation in Kazachya Bay was partially disabled, leading to power outages in several areas of the city. There were no casualties among the locals.
Furthermore, over FIVE UAVs were destroyed in the Black Sea waters.

Over the Krasnodar Region - FORTY-FOUR.
Residents of Novorossiysk and Tuapse reported hearing explosions.
In Novorossiysk, over 35 explosions were counted, targeting the Novorossiysk oil terminal and the Transneft terminal. As a result of the attack, the port was first partially, then fully, de-energized.
In Tuapse, the attack was aimed at the territory of the local oil refinery.
As a result of 2 drones being shot down and debris falling on the enterprise, a fire broke out.

Over the Belgorod region - SIX, one of which hit a moving car in the Oktyabrsky settlement of the Belgorod district.
There were 4 civilians in the car, resulting in the death of a woman on the spot, and a 4-year-old boy died in the care unit.

Another UAV was intercepted over the Kursk region.

The attack on the southern regions of Russia carried out by Ukraine was the most massive since the beginning of the Special Military Operation. Thanks to the clear and coordinated work of the air defense crews, significant damage to critical infrastructure was avoided.

Source: https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/16053
7:58 AM · May 17, 2024
·
6,571
Views

Arrow wrote:Putin has ruled out any attack on Kharkov while he is now in China. It's good that Kiev is reporting this directly...

It's a very short visit.

Hole wrote:

The Russians have lost a small number of aircraft and a few more have been damaged on airfields.

One side in this war lost over 1.000 planes and helicopters,
the other maybe 50, including friendly fire, accidents, pilot errors, debris from shot down missiles falling to the ground...
But the side that is shooting down 90+% of all air targets and is winnig the war by a wiiiiiiiide margin against the whole
of NATO+ hiding behind a proxy is being blamed all the time for everything.

They clearly lost more than 50... the production rate is still too low to replace losses and buy new stuff for the normal procurement plans.

No, they clearly lost less than 50 until today...
And this year alone, they will produce around 20 Su-57s with the second phase engines (type 30).

xeno wrote:No, they clearly lost less than 50 until today...
And  this year alone, they will produce around 20 Su-57s with the second phase engines (type 30).

We can argue that they lost 50 airCRAFTS, in a combined meaning of planes and helis.
In this case, I would say yes, they surely lost the corresponding number.
Still, in a sole 2022, they have made about 300 helicopters. And that number has increased for sure after.
Loosing a few dozens of aircraft, in two years, while dismantling the world's most intense air defense is something I would call shocking and scary.
It is nothing else than a slaughter, with 20:1 ratio.
Our doomers team lacks any any sort of educated perspective.
In Desert Storm campaign, combined loses of the coalition were - formally - more than 70 pieces of equipment.
Iraqi AD system can't be compared to the Ukro one, under no measures.
The technology gap for both fighting sides used to be catastrophic.
It was a clash of the world's most serious armies, trained for extreme and intense world-scale conflict with an equal opponent, hitting a third-world operetta.

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (for the period from 11 to 17 May 2024)

From May 11 to 17, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out 28 group strikes with precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles, as a result of which: command posts, military airfield infrastructure facilities, air defense systems, arsenals, fuel bases of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as workshops for the production and storage of unmanned boats and attack UAVs were hit.

The points of temporary deployment of units of nationalist formations and foreign mercenaries were also affected.

During the week, units of the North group of forces, as a result of active actions, liberated 12 settlements in the Kharkiv region: Borisovka, Bugrovatka, Gatyshche, Glubokoe, Krasnoe, Lukyants, Morokhovets, Ogurtsovo, Oleinikovo, Pletenevka, Dusty, Strelechye and continue to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense.

They defeated the manpower and equipment of five brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, four brigades of the Air Defense and the 15th border detachment of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Veseloye, Volchansk, Dergachi, Neskuchnoye, Krasnoe and Liptsy in the Kharkiv region. 21 counterattacks of the AFU assault groups were repelled in the areas of the settlements of Glubokoe, Tikhoe and Staritsa in the Kharkiv region.

Enemy losses amounted to 1,175 soldiers, 10 tanks, 14 armored combat vehicles, 45 vehicles, 13 MLRS combat vehicles, including six Czech-made Vampire MLRS combat vehicles, 26 field artillery guns, as well as five Buk and Strela-10 SAM combat vehicles.

Units of the Western Group of Troops continued to occupy more advantageous positions and defeated formations of eighteen enemy brigades in the areas of the settlements of Artemovka, Makeyevka of the Luhansk People's Republic, Kislovka, Sinkovka of the Kharkiv region, Yampolovka, Krasny Liman and Torskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

They repelled 37 counterattacks by assault groups of eight brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as two brigades of the National Guard in the areas of settlements: Chervonaya Dibrova, Novoegorovka, Stelmakhovka, Nevskoye of the Luhansk People's Republic, Berestovoye, Kislovka and Olshana of the Kharkiv region.

The enemy's losses amounted to 960 soldiers, two tanks, nine armored combat vehicles, 24 vehicles, four MLRS Grad and Willow combat vehicles, 25 field artillery guns, of which five were manufactured by the United States. In addition, two field ammunition depots were destroyed.

The units of the Southern Group of Troops continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense during the conduct of active hostilities. They defeated the manpower and equipment of six assault, ten mechanized brigades and seven air defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Andreevka, Antonovka, Georgievka, Grigorovka, Kleshcheyevka, Kurdyumovka, Paraskovievka and Novomikhailovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

They repelled nine counterattacks by assault units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Belogorovka of the Luhansk People's Republic, Razdolovka, Krasnoe, Disputable and Chas Yar of the Donetsk People's Republic.

In a week, the enemy lost up to 3,725 soldiers, eight tanks, including five Leopard-2A1 manufactured by Germany, 13 armored combat vehicles, 55 vehicles, a Grad MLRS combat vehicle, 47 field artillery guns, of which 22 were foreign-made. Three Nota and Bukovel-AD electronic warfare stations, two US-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery warfare stations and 16 field ammunition depots were also destroyed.

Units of the Center group of forces, as a result of successful actions, liberated the settlement of Keramik of the Donetsk People's Republic, improved the situation along the front edge and defeated formations of 14 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard in the areas of the settlements of Novoaleksandrovka, Yevgenovka, Karlovka and Rozovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

They repelled 59 counterattacks by enemy assault groups in the areas of the settlements of Arkhangelskoye, Semenovka, Ocheretino, Solovyovo, Novgorodskoye, Umanskoye, Netailovo and Berdych of the Donetsk People's Republic.

During the week, the AFU lost up to 2,475 servicemen in this area, four tanks, including one Abrams made by the United States, 20 armored combat vehicles, 27 vehicles, and a Croatian-made MLRS RAK-SA-12 combat vehicle. In addition, during the counter-battery struggle, 23 field artillery guns were hit, of which five Paladin self-propelled guns and three M777 howitzers manufactured by the United States.

The units of the Vostok group of forces improved the tactical situation, and also defeated the formations of three brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and three brigades of the defense Forces in the areas of the settlements of Ugledar, Velikaya Novoselka, Vodiane, Vladimirovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Chervonoye and Dorozhnyanka of the Zaporozhye region.

They repelled two counterattacks by assault groups of the 123rd Air Defense Brigade and the 21st Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Staromayorskoye and Urozhodnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy's losses amounted to up to 965 servicemen, a tank, nine armored combat vehicles, 28 vehicles, a Grad MLRS combat vehicle and two Strela-10 SAM combat vehicles.
During the counter-battery struggle, 20 field artillery guns were hit, of which four Polish Krab self-propelled guns and four M777 howitzers manufactured by the United States.

As a result of active actions, units of the Dnepr group of troops liberated the settlement of Rabodino in the Zaporozhye region, and also defeated the manpower and equipment of two brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 35th Marine Brigade, three defense brigades, as well as three National Guard brigades in the areas of the settlements of Orekhov, Verbovoye, Nesteryanka, Malaya Tokmachka of the Zaporozhye region, Nikopol, Kapulovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, Zolotaya Balka and Ivanovka, Kherson region.

The enemy lost up to 265 servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, 15 vehicles, a Czech-made Vampire MLRS combat vehicle, 35 field artillery guns, including 14 M777 howitzers manufactured by the United States, as well as a self-propelled Buk air defense system.

Missile forces, artillery and UAVs of the groups of troops destroyed four Mi-24 helicopters at the helipad during the week, as well as 40 unmanned boats at the storage warehouse.
In addition, the following were hit: a division of the Patriot air defense system manufactured by the United States in a combat position, ammunition depots, fuel and aviation equipment in the parking lots of five military airfields.

Aviation and air defense equipment shot down during the week: six MiG-29 and one Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, 31 ATACAMS operational and tactical missiles manufactured in the USA and Tochka-U, 31 guided Hammer bombs manufactured in France, 15 HARM anti-radar missiles manufactured in the USA, 199 HIMARS, Vampire rockets,"Grad" and "Alder", as well as 329 UAVs.

In the last 24 hours alone, 123 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs have been shot down over the territory of Crimea and the Black Sea coast of the Krasnodar Territory.

The forces of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed 25 Ukrainian unmanned boats in the Black Sea over the past day.

During the week, 63 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered on the line of contact, 48 of whom were in the area of responsibility of the North group of forces.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 601 aircraft, 274 helicopters, 24234 unmanned aerial vehicles, 522 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16058 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1303 multiple rocket launchers, 9635 field artillery and mortars, as well as 21763 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12513286@egNews

https://www.facebook.com/K01Archive/videos/855298449766889/

The video about Russian specialists were shooting and destroying Ukrainina suicide unmanned watercraft (USW) using various machine guns. This USW also carried AA missiles.

We can see that it was a tough mission. You must not only damage the USW, you must also detonate it from a safe distance.

https://www.facebook.com/K01Archive/posts/pfbid02X9hg2XHF1Nx8q1oSkf3fztH59neQp7JK5vWg6hpvpJLwqDDcSTj54wHryt2bTVo4l

Photo: Special forces of Black Sea Fleet hunting USW. The gun was PKMN machine gun with 1PN120 thermal scope.

https://www.rt.com/russia/597745-zelensky-blames-whole-world/

Zelensky blames ‘whole world’ for Ukraine’s failures in Kharkov

The whole world is to blame for Ukraine’s failure to stop Russia’s recent advances in Kharkov Region and must now help Kiev to change the situation, President Vladimir Zelensky told ABC News in an interview on Thursday.

They will win in this war but with what price?!

What you are ignoring is that they are winning this war, and they are doing it with an 8% military budget...

The west has complained that they are losing because they are not taking ground... they have killed well over half a million enemy troops with a kill rate of 10 to one or better... even the Fins would be impressed with that because their enemy wasn't dumb Soviet conscripts... they are HATO trained and HATO armed and HATO supported with 21st century satellite network and modern stealth super weapons that were all going to be game changers.

Maybe that is the problem... Kiev doesn't know what the game is and that is why they are losing...

Stupid Russians... if only they were as smart as Serbia... because when Serbia took on HATO it was a totally different story... well to be fair it wasn't the Ukraine vs Russia sort of story... HATO wasn't great then either.

Those aircraft shelters don't look like a waste of money right about now, eh?

No effort need for such criticism... but if they were building aircraft shelters these last two years ago that would mean captured regions would not be getting rebuilt and most likely defensive lines would not have been built either... still think aircraft shelters would win the war?

Add up all the planes lost in these attacks and line them up... they have been replaced several times via production over the last two years.

Now take away the rebuilding and the defensive positions the Russians built.

**** the aircraft shelters.

Hopefully losing some MiG-31s will get them to speed up development of that new interceptor, can't live off Soviet leftovers forever, it's unseemly

And this its the core, you are worried about how this looks... afraid western propaganda might make this out to be some sort of dramatic victory... a turning point in the war...  they will be in Moscow soon maybe?

Only if it is an unconditional surrender by Kiev.

As a result of the attack, two MiG-31s and one Su-27 were completely destroyed, and a MiG-29 was also damaged.

They are only claiming four fucking planes... that is pathetic... that wouldn't pay for 50 aircraft shelters...

This is bullshit. Weak sheet metal hangars will not protect the plane even against cluster munitions.

Canvas would mean they couldn't tell if there was a plane there or not and the canvas might offer a very soft landing for submunitions so they don't fire and become duds.

Yes, until they banned me out of the blue and with no inciting event about a month after the war started, lol.

How can you have honest discussions when some views are not allowed... pathetic.

Hardened shelters are easy targets - you need to disperse your aircraft once the base is in range of enemy fire.

The modern threat with drones means even the hardest shelter is not safe when drones can fly in through doors and windows...

Hitting aircraft between the runway and the hardened aircraft shelter is not impossible either...

But it is fantastic for construction companies making lots of money for infrastructure projects if they have nothing else to do.

Not at all, but it is nonetheless an avoidable loss.

Yeah, if Moscow had started the conflict by nuking Kiev and western Ukraine the losses they are incurring today likely would not have happened because HATO would have dropped Kiev like a red hot rock.

But the conflict is what it is... a military power destroying a country... and that takes time and while they are doing that Kiev is going to keep swinging... most of the time hitting air... sometimes it gets a contact and the western propaganda machine will claim it is a knockout blow and the west will claim victory is at hand unless uncle putin builds lots of sandcastles to keep his stuff safe in...

The difference is that when Iran attacks US bases in Iraq the US moves Patriot batteries out of the country because they don't want its record tarnished.

When the west was funding drone attacks on Syrian forces in Syria the Russians sent in anti drone systems and drone specialists and learned quite a lot that was useful for this conflict.

But hardened aircraft shelters will fix everything.... right.

This is to keep the current keep flying rather than build new aircraft of course

No, they are not building new MiG-31s, they have put the engines back into production so they can keep the current aircraft flying longer and bring some more aircraft out of storage and upgrade them.

Lets be fair they don't seem to have lost any in flight and so losing a few on the ground and maybe a couple in accidents is hardly going to make them vulnerable or cost them the war.

This is why I said its currently irreplaceable - there's no other interceptor of its like currently in production so the loss of one is basically permanent.

They have aircraft in storage and they are working on a replacement type that might benefit the inservice aircraft by using systems and equipment being developed for the new aircraft.

Worst case scenario they could put a massive AESA radar in the nose of a Tu-22M3M and modify its belly to carry a dozen or more heavy long range AAMs if they need something...

Su-57s could do the job temporarily too despite its lack of speed.

(I often wonder how viable actually putting a modernised MiG-31M in production would be, with modern avionics it would surely be formidable)

Perhaps they could do the same as they are doing with their bombers... they didn't have enough Tu-160s to make a viable force and they want a replacement for the Bear and the Backfire so they build a nice new high tech factory to make PAK DAs... but first they are making Tu-160s.

The centre box section for the Tu-160s central body with the swing wing structure is huge and is made of Titanium so part of the new factory was a place where they can make freaken enormous Titanium structures... good for swing wing box structures, but also probably good for flying wing structures that are super strong one piece bits of Titanium with wields to reduce RCS.

They could do the same for the MiG... set up a factory tailored to make the new design and make a few prototypes for testing and then start making a few dozen MiG-31M3s using new technologies intended for the PAK DP... and then move to serial production of PAK DP when it is ready for serial production.

Or as I mentioned modify another supersonic aircraft to fill the gap... the Tu-22M3 is mach 2, but then the Tu-160 was going to have an interceptor version... I seem to remember Tu-160P was the designation with two 11 metre long internal rotary weapon bays with medium and long range AAMs... why not?

   
For the purposes of the current war, they only need HAS at airfields within the range of ATACMS and other missiles though.

Which are near frontline airfields with a moving front line...

I understand wanting to protect everything... but they will be working hard on anti drone systems and short range self contained air defence systems that can shoot down almost anything... which is going to be very useful and may include lasers to damage or blind optics and jammers to defeat threats as well as just simple stuff like smoke generators.

FPV drones are still a problem but you'd need saboteurs nearby to carry out those attacks -

(hiring an) Idiot just cost money and the US spends it like it is raining money and always will.

Good droughts are coming.

a lot less viable and there's other ways to deal with them besides (jamming for one). We can see the success of such anti-drone efforts with the cessation of Ukraine's dumb attempted attacks on Russia's strategic bomber force.

In the next few weeks we will continue to hear from the Russians all the missiles they are shooting down and the talk of success from the west will die down because they wont be able to get through and they will be running out of missiles anyway.

There might be some penny pinching involved, but it will be required to keep the war going for few more years. Russian economists are the unsung heroes

Accountants in the west cut capability so the next war you have to do better with less.

They are the reason the west can't produce shells and tanks and planes and missiles any more because having the capacity to make that was not cost effective.

The Russians have always been good in that regard, choosing solutions that work over the most expensive and biggest profit margin solution.

From what they said this change is more about getting things into service that will make a difference like APS systems I suspect...

There is no rush to get the new generation vehicle families involved in this conflict... it simply does not warrant it.

Anything that can take out a T-90AM could probably take out a T-14 too... it is not rocket science... attack the tracks and then hit the engine and start it burning and any tank will have problems.

The Russians are also sensible about that too...

When it is fully ready then T-14 is going to be a level above the T-90AM with its computers and systems and communication and potential with all its new stuff... but it is going to take time to get it working fully and get full Armata divisions into service so the reduced logistics tail can be an advantage in terms of mobility and fire power on the battlefield.

The communication with air support and artillery will make them rather formidable too.

And again it seems that warhead was detonated.

And yet it hasn't launched the missile...

Do you think the plan is to use them to hit ships in the hopes that the fragmentation warhead of the R-73 will kill sailors on the deck trying to shoot the drone?

Take the anti ship warhead out of the drone and use an AAMs warhead to kill sailors?

If the R-73s warhead did explode it clearly didn't set off any warhead inside the drone itself... are they running out of high explosive?

Why put the whole missile on if you don't intend to launch it?

Edit: they also allow to hide from satelittes. You could load unoticed Kinzhals on the su-34 inside them at night, open the door and take off in 1min leaving no indication an atta k is ongoing. With a su-57 and internal bay it's totally impossible to know an attack is going to happen even if you have spotters around the airbase. An advantage that the USA currently have with their f-35 and shelters.

If that was an important feature they could use smoke generators to hide the arming of aircraft and their taxi to the flight line.

They could also line up decoy planes with the most expensive types close together to tempt an attack.

Where are the il-38 ? I haven't seen any pic or recording of their use in ukraine. They desperately need to build at least 8 il-114MPA quickly to patrol the black and northern seas.

We haven't seen them but they are likely there. We have seen different helicopter types attacking drones... helicopters without the radar and long range sensors to find the drones in the first place.

As such i would think the Il-38s are looking and directing helicopters to find and attack the targets with guns and gunpods.

Here is a Hind using its chin mounted 23mm cannon and presumably Kord door mounted gun to engage naval drones:

At least directing proper interceptor to the area. Or doing typical ELINT job with Novella suite. There always use for such aircraft there.

Their helicopters seem to be finding the drones... maybe they are using them and just not filming it?

$200K per drone... hahahaha... someone is winning, which is why this conflict continues...

"There are no plans to take Kharkov today"

He only spoke of today. Tomorrow... Maybe. 

Following the night attack aftermath:

Symbolic attacks again. Close to zero military value.
Nothing that would help the fighters at the front.

was the most massive

Because of the heavy losses along the entire frontlines.

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

Maybe the doomers should compare the few damaged/destroyed aircraft/missile launchers to that list.

The whole world 

Roughly 90% of that world stands with Russia.

https://m.vk.com/video-123538639_456308496

We have major milestone - it is first time that Ukraine attacked with more than 100 long range attack drones at once.

I am hoping they will be able to increase that number steadily next few months, why not to be able to send 200-300 or later even 500-1000, what would air defence do then he he he.

PS. Their long range attack drones are getting heavier (payload of 75 kg), with longer range and are getting hardened against jamming... so they are doing decent job in my eyes.

mr_hd wrote:We have major milestone - it is first time that Ukraine attacked with more than 100 long range attack drones at once.

I am hoping they will be able to increase that number steadily next few months, why not to be able to send 200-300 or later even 500-1000, what would air defence do then he he he.

PS. Their long range attack drones are getting heavier (payload of 75 kg), with longer range and are getting hardened against jamming... so they are doing decent job in my eyes.

Lol they shouldn't worry about Crimea

Losing Kharkov and Sumy is what they should worry of

Vympel wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Holy shit!
Good to see you again, dude!  
Were you also on spacebattles.net by any chance?

Yes, until they banned me out of the blue and with no inciting event about a month after the war started, lol.

Oh yeah, I noticed that everyone not falling in line was removed within weeks

Freedom, baby!!!