Russian special military operation in Ukraine #57

Russia wants an end now , based on present frontlines .

Why do you think that?

Is it because Reuters say Putin wants a ceasefire?

Putin has already said that long range weapons from the west to Kiev require a buffer zone to keep such weapons out of range of Russian territory...

Remember that map showing the current front line and a band of territory of 300km reaching towards Russia.... the lines have likely moved west a little but you need to reflect those 300km range boundaries to the west rather than to the east and that will indicate the minimum neutral zone Russia will require before even considering any peace talks.

Of course as Russian forces move forward and remove Orcs from these places they might decide to have a referendum and join the Russian Federation too, which means the border shifts and the projected 300km shifts too.

Once it reaches into HATO territory that will be fine because any Kiev launch of weapons from HATO territory becomes an act of war against the Russian Federation and Russia can strike back as they please.

The Orcs do not want the war to end , an end of war means an end to them . And the MIC , they don't t want the war to end , an end to war means an end to their profits . So unless the MIC , see an end to their profits , and the Orcs see an end to their miserable lives , there won't be an end to war . So when will the war end ?

To clarify the orcs on the ground likely want it to end now, while the orcs in power want it to end on their terms... and that is never going to happen so they will prefer a forever war.

The war ends when the guys fighting it realise their leadership actually means what it says and they are going to die to the last man trying to achieve goals they couldn't achieve 3 years ago and are in an even worse position to deliver now.

Another year with more money and more weapons is not going to help and there are only so many men in poor countries around  the world willing to die for Kiev... and as they get killed the appetite for that money will dry up... money you never get because you are going to die is not worth anything.

They can't train you to deal with glide bombs and artillery and drones...

‘Not sufficient’: Ukrainian soldiers detail how US-supplied tank is faring in war

They laughed at Russian cage armour and called them cope cages, but they are not copying them properly... the slats on the Russian cages are stronger and mounted further away from the base armour. The cope cages the Orcs are putting on their Abrams tanks are not strong enough nor are they fitted far enough away from the base armour to be effective against rockets and missiles and drones.

Besides it is not exactly certain that Article 5 can be invoked and justified if it is NATO that intervenes directly. NATO troops deployed in Ukrying would be a great gift to Putin, it almost seems that he is waiting for this eventuality since day 1.

I agree.... official HATO boots on the ground and also seizing and redistribution of Russian Assets is another trap that Putin will love to exploit... how can the west be so obviously stupid... perhaps someone who admires Putin is whispering in their ears to get the to be so stupid and easy to counter.

Is the Western MIC making that much profit I wonder?

I would say yes and no... their costs will of course have gone up but not as much as they are passing on to the people they are making the weapons and ammo for.

Mothballing old production and producing shells isn't exactly milking the cow as far as they're concerned.

The Arms companies making ammo have likely had very few orders over the last few decades largely because of enormous stores of cold war era gear filling storage facilities across eastern europe and eastern european producers able to make more of that ammo type at a fraction of the price a US company could make it.

Once all the weapons and guns and ammo in Warsaw pact calibres are taken out of storage and sent to the Ukraine they will be replacing it all with new production western ammo, which is going to be very very very expensive. These countries didn't really donate... they kept at tab and expect things they gave to be replaced on a one for one basis... it is a bit like handing in .22lr rimfire ammunition and expecting to be credited the same as for 308 centre fire ammo...

Even if this war stops now the US MIC and western MIC will be pumping out ammo and arms to replace empty stores for the next decade or two... and over time the prices are not going to go down.

Productivity hasnt' exactly gone up that significantly, most stocks have not seen exponential growth since 2022.

Part of the reason they are not massively ramping up production is shortages of explosive components, including cotton and other materials.

It is a bit like Russian aircraft production is being restricted by lack of new engines, but also developing Russian and non western sources of other equipment and material and systems.

Correct me if I'm wrong but all I see is a slow demilitarization of NATO with some prospects of modernization in the long run, if ever.

Increases in spending on defence will lead to increases in production capacity, but of course nothing like what they need because eventually the conflict will end and once it is over western agitators will struggle to find reasons to keep Russia and China as the worlds boogey man... and of course quality of life is going to deteriorate in the west and if things keep growing in Russia then more and more western companies are going to want a piece of the action... so western sanctions are going to get harder and harder to justify.

Not to mention spending on ammo and weapons at a time when the economy is suffering and energy is expensive... and of course a few issues with infrastructure falling apart...

The US doesn't want this parasitic war to drag on as they have much more pressing issues such as Taiwan, while the war of attrition suits the Russian Federation's economy and modernization prospects, even though at 6-8% of GDP in military expenditures and at least 30K casualties per year, it better end by the next two years.

I would say once the US realises it is doing rather more damage to its EU allies and is actually improving Russias economy then they will want a way out... but until the realise it is not hurting Russia they will continue as long as they think it is still hurting Russia.

Or else there is still nukes... Let's see what happens in November 2024.

Trump is better than Biden... if Trump was in charge this conflict would not have happened because Trump is not making a lot of money out of Ukraine like the Biden family clearly are, but Trump is flaky.... perhaps the best chance will be a repeat of last election where Biden cheats and half of Americans voting for Trump don't take it lying down this time and things kick off...

How about civil war in the US over this civil war in Europe.... a nice symmetry... but no something  Russia would actually fund because unlike the US they are not evil.

Deploy it in Ukraine where Ukrainian troops are poorly trained and badly led, logistics are always under attack, the best you can hope for is an occassional sortie by a drone or F-16 or some frankenstein feighter cobbled together from various airframes of cold war era Warsaw Pact fighters its a sitting duck.

To be fair the units using Abrams tanks in the Ukraine are not conscript idiots with a weeks training.

No tank would do well in such a situation... which is why I find it funny to hear westerners mock the use of T-72s and T-62s in this conflict... with armour upgrades and optics upgrades there is not a lot of difference between an Abrams or a Leopard II... apart from the fact that those western tanks have tracks designed for parades that don't work well in deep mud or ice or deep snow, and the western tanks are 70+ tons and 10-15 million dollars each.   T-62 and T-72 tanks are almost half that weight and 1/10th the cost and have the right tracks and good add on armour that seems to be effective most of the time.

it can be argued that the Abrams are being deployed precisely according to plan.

All the new next gen armour programmes have stalled or failed... ruin the Abrams and you need a new HATO MBT programme that will waste trillions and end up with four or even five slightly different and not compatible vehicles.

I don't know if they believe it but they certainly do say it. You know the type - 'OSINT'-bros who make pretensions of 'loss tracking' and repeating to themselves that Russian equipment losses are unsustainable and cannot be made good.

Apart from a terrible loss of soldiers, Russia is doing rather well from this conflict... the leeches are dropping away voluntarily and the colonial west is cutting its noose around Russian necks... if they were smart people they could have agreed with Minsk and kept everything except the Crimea... all they had to do was drop the laws banning Russian language and culture and there would be no problems...

Fortunately they are morons.

“Countries with small territory and dense populations”

The really funny thing about the English language is that there are two meanings to a dense population.

Dense in the sense that there are a lot of people all living close together, but also dense as in stupid... the population is stupid and not thinking for themselves about what their leaders are doing and the consequences it will have for every one of them.

Does he realize the west is out to destroy Russia? Literally.

They have been trying and failing for hundreds of years.

This current attempt has made Russia stronger and more independent than it has been for a very long time, not to mention it has gained more territory in the last decade than it did during the Cold war...

sepheronx wrote:Would be bad idea to leave Odessa to the West.

It would be idiotic idea

Might as well give Crimea back if they don't plan on taking Odessa

War is on now, no backsies

Pepe Escobar: The West is Hell-Bent on Provoking Russia Into Hot War, 05.30.2024.

The warning by President Putin could not be starker: “In the event of the use of long-range weapons, the Russian Armed Forces will again have to make decisions about expanding the sanitary zone further (…) Do they want global conflict? It seemed they wanted to negotiate [with us], but we don’t see much desire to do this.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov then came up with the appropriate metaphor to designate NATO’s ramped-up military outbursts: not only NATO is raising the degree of escalation but delving into a warlike "ecstasy".

It does not get more serious than that. “They”, as Putin alluded to, do seem to want “global conflict”. That’s at the heart of NATO’s new suicidal “ecstasy” strategy.

For all their circumlocutions, NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have effectively greenlighted Kiev using Western weapons for attacks deep inside the Russian Federation. The alleged debate, still ongoing, is just a “smokescreen” for the real objective: a pretext that could lead to WWIII.

There’s no reason to think Kiev will stick to “limited” strikes against relatively unimportant targets. Instead, it is likely to target critical security infrastructure in hopes of provoking an unrelenting Russian response, which in turn would pave the way for NATO to invoke Article 5 and de facto engage in a Hot War.

Already on the Edge of Doom

The escalation “ecstasy” defined by Peskov went out of control since a – secret - new batch of ATACMS was dispatched to Kiev earlier this year, complemented with longer-range ATACMS. Kiev has been using them for serious hits on Russian air bases and key air defence nodes. These ATACMS fire missiles at Mach 3 speed: a serious challenge even for the best Russian air defence systems.

All that seems to point to a crucial decision enveloped in several layers of fog: as the incoming, cosmic NATO humiliation in the black soil of Novorossiya becomes self-evident day after day, the Western elites who really run the show are betting on provoking a full Hot War against Russia.
Richard H. Black, a former US senator from Virginia, offers a sobering analysis:

“This is a continuation of the pattern in which the NATO forces recognize they are losing the war in Ukraine, with the fragile lines of defense breaking, and the NATO response is to escalate. This is not accidental, but very deliberate. It is not the first attack on the Russian nuclear triad. The ideological folks are seeing their world crumbling, after flying the rainbow flag over conservative countries and [waging] perpetual wars. They are frantic and could escalate to nuclear war to get out of the bind. They are taking a series of baby steps, and respond that ‘they don’t do anything in response,’ and so they keep taking baby steps until one of them lands on a land mine and we are into World War III. (…) Putin is very aware of the disconnect in the West, who keep saying he is just saber rattling, but he is not—he is informing the West of the dangerous reality.”

In Russia, Senator Dmitry Rogozin, a former head of Roscosmos, directly warned Washington: “We are not just on the threshold, but already on the edge, beyond which, if the enemy is not stopped in such actions, an irreversible collapse of the strategic security of the nuclear powers will begin."
General Evgeny Buzhinky advanced an ominous scenario: “I am sure that if the strikes of Taurus of ATACMS are very harmful for Russia, then I presume we will at least strike the logistical hub in the territory of Poland in Rzeszów” where the missiles are staged for delivery to Ukraine.

The connection in this case would be irreversible: Russia hits Poland; NATO invokes Article 5; WW3.

Be Careful What You Wish For

NATO warlike “ecstasy” is predictably cloaked in cowardice. For all the rhetorical garbage 24/7 about “we don’t want a war with Russia”, the facts point to NATO using Kiev to attack and try to destroy a wide range of Russian military assets. There’s also no denying the US Deep State’s role in enabling Kiev’s terror attacks against Russian civilians in the Donbass, Belgorod, and elsewhere.

Considering the serious debate finally on across several Russian platforms, all of that might constitute a reasonable pretext for a tactical nuclear drop on the – legally illegitimate – Kiev gang. At least that would finish a war that is dragging for too long.

Yet that would be totally out of character when it comes to legalistic Putin – who deals with Armageddon-laden issues with the patience of a Taoist monk. Yet Russia has an entire arsenal of asymmetric tools – both conventional and nuclear -- that can deliver a painful blow to NATO in places where the alliance least expects.

We’re not there yet – even as we get ominously closer day after day. Dmitri Medvedev has issued the umpteenth red line: a US strike on Russian targets, or the US letting Kiev hit targets within Russia using American missiles and drones would be the ‘start of World War’.

And Foreign Minister Lavrov, once again displaying his trademark Taoist patience, had to come up with another serious reminder: Russia will regard the deployment of nuclear-capable F-16s in Ukraine – which de facto can only be operated by NATO pilots – as “a deliberate signal from NATO in the nuclear field to Russia”.

And still the gaggle of armchair Dr. Strangeloves – lavishly rewarded by the rarified Atlanticist plutocracy holding real power, funds, influence and mass media control - is not listening.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240530/pepe-escobar-the-west-is-hell-bent-on-provoking-russia-into-hot-war--1118696941.html

It had to happen, just a case of when.

Two Majors reports:

#слухи
Our source reports that Western intelligence warned the Office of the President that the Russian Armed Forces are preparing to use BECs (marine drones),
for striking the Ukrainian maritime infrastructure, as well as demining the sea, and for preparing an amphibious operation in the south of Ukraine.
9:51 AM · May 30, 2024
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Military Summary
@MilitarySummary
#UkraineRussiaWar
For the second day in a row, the Russian Aerospace Forces have launched massive missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine. The Russians are striking at the same point - at the airfield in Starokostiantyniv. It is not known for sure whether there were F-16 planes at the airfield, but we can say with confidence that the Russians are hunting for them.

Another Strike With Kinzhal On The Airfield With F-16 | Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.05.30

Summary of military operations on the Ukrainian front from the Russian telegram channel Two Majors on the morning of May 30, 2024.

At night, the enemy tried to attack the transport infrastructure of the city of Kerch in Crimea. The Minister of Transport of Crimea reported that while repelling the attack, two ferries - a car and a railway - were damaged from the debris of downed missiles - the glazing of the superstructures was damaged. There were no casualties among sailors or civilians. There were also reports of the destruction of enemy MBECs off the western coast of Crimea. In the morning, the Zaporozhye Front observed up to 30 enemy aircraft-type UAVs.

The Russian Aerospace Forces launched a comprehensive air strike against enemy rear targets. At first, several groups of “Geraniums” solved the problem of opening enemy air defense systems; in the middle of the night, the enemy reported recording missile launches from strategic Tu-95MS, as well as hypersonic “Daggers” from MiG-31. Explosions were reported at the Starokonstantinov airfield in the Khmelnitsky region, Kharkov, Poltava and Vinnytsia regions.

In the Kharkov region, fierce fighting continues in Volchansk. It is reported that the enemy has transferred units of the 101st separate security brigade of the General Staff of Ukraine to the combat area. The enemy holds multi-storey residential buildings in the center of Volchansk under artillery and aviation fire. In the Liptsovsky direction, our assault units advanced to a depth of 150 meters.

Heavy fighting continues on the eastern outskirts of Hours of Yar.

West of Avdeevka, the Russian Armed Forces maintain the initiative and expand the zones of control near Umansky and Netailovo.

In the Vremevsky direction, our troops, as a result of constant assault operations, took control of most of Staromayorsky, and there are battles in Urozhayny.
9:24 AM · May 30, 2024
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They won't like this window into reality being broadcast in the US

A more comprehensive report.

Zlatti71
@Zlatti_71
Important news for Thursday morning, May 30:

The Russian Armed Forces launched a massive attack on enemy targets at night - explosions were heard in Vinnitsa, Poltava, Kharkov and Khmelnytsky regions.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of 8 ATACMS missiles overnight over the Sea of ​​Azov and the interception of 8 UAVs over the Black Sea near Crimea. In addition, 2 unmanned boats heading towards Crimea were destroyed in the Black Sea. 5 UAVs were also destroyed over the Krasnodar Territory.

The night strike hit a microdistrict adjacent to the military airfield in Starokonstantinov, Khmelnitsky region of Ukraine, the underground movement reported. In total, at least 5 strikes were carried out on the city, one of them was on a shelter for Ukrainian Armed Forces aircraft on the territory of the airfield.

Russia will view the delivery of F-16s to Kiev as a deliberate “signaling” action by NATO in the nuclear sphere - Sergey Lavrov.

NATO countries have only 5% of the air defense systems needed to protect member countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the Financial Times wrote, citing sources familiar with the alliance's defense plans.

Almost half of the shells purchased for Kiev on the Czech initiative in Africa and Asia turned out to be of poor quality or with flaws and cannot be delivered on time without modification, the FT reported, citing the defense company CSG.

The United States has issued a record number of green cards to Russians. Vedomosti writes about this, citing data from the immigration company Second Wind. In 2023, almost 13 thousand Russians received green cards. This is the highest result since 2016.

In Thailand they want to launch payment with the Russian Mir card. This was stated at the Russian Embassy in Thailand. The country is considered one of the most popular among Russians. According to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports of Thailand, over 800 thousand Russians have visited the country since the beginning of the year. - FRWL reports

More detail on the serius fighting in Volchansk

Offensive towards Kharkov: The North group is waging fierce battles, destroying enemy equipment and infantry

Fierce fighting continues in the city of Volchansk. Due to the acute shortage of personnel, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to contain the advance of Russian troops, transferred units of the 101st separate security brigade of the General Staff of the Armed Forces to the city. Units of the 101st Brigade attempted a counterattack and, having suffered losses (about 20 people), retreated to their original positions.

Meanwhile, units of the 71st Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold multi-storey residential buildings in the center of Volchansk, where they are systematically destroyed by the artillery and aviation of the Sever group.

In certain areas of the direction, the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in depth amounted to 400 m.

In the Liptsovsky direction, assault units of the “North” group advanced to a depth of 150 m and repelled a counterattack by the 5th separate battalion of the 13th National Guard Defense Force.

Enemy losses over the past 24 hours: up to 250 militants. Also opened and destroyed:

tank T-72;

two Osa air defense systems in the village. Russian Tishki (on video) and Ukrainian;

two 120 mm mortars in the village. Volchansk and Sinelnikovo;

AFV in n.p. Svetlichnoe;

4 vehicles.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to recruit a huge number of reserve units, but only the 82nd Specialized Brigade, the 36th Specialized Brigade and the 71st Reinforced Regiment have real experience in conducting intense combat operations. Most likely, the enemy intends to carry out a counterattack in several phases:
1. exhausting our units by sending brigades into battle that have not previously participated in assault operations;
2. the introduction into battle of trained assault units of the 82nd infantry brigade and the 36th infantry infantry brigade for a breakthrough.

The catastrophic lack of high-explosive fragmentation artillery ammunition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is compensated by the use of FPV drones and cluster munitions made in the USA, but their resource is also not endless.
- RVvoenkor

The Russian military has begun using aircraft-style drones to drop FPV kamikaze drones (see video) - aircraft-style carriers save the small drones a charge, increase their range and relay the signal.

The scheme is simple: disposable, first-person-controlled kamikaze drones are attached to "planes" - and then, when the time is right, they detach and fly behind the enemy with a full charge. There, they quietly attack artillery and anti-aircraft missile systems. And if the enemy is not found - the large drones return home.

The video shows just the moment when the drone separates from the aircraft-drone.

http://t.me/ukraine_watch

the Abrams is the best tank in the world pound for pound 

Good joke.

THE SORT OF WAR THE UNITED STATES CREATED IT TO FIGHT.

Which means it´s not a war but a police operation/massmurder of civilians.

Ukrainian maritime infrastructure

 
Not much left.

recruit a huge number of reserve units

have real experience in conducting intense combat operations.

Which means most of the personnel of those units was killed in previous battles
and what was left was refilled with barely trainned recruits.

exhausting our units by sending brigades into battle that have not previously participated in assault operations;

Most of these units are only brigades by name.

of trained assault units of the 82nd infantry brigade and the 36th infantry infantry brigade 

Trained by NATO. I mean the original fighters. Most of whom are dead.
In other words: cannon fodder like the other units.

Shit, 2+ years into the SMO and those morons with their telegram channels still
aren´t able to grasp the concept of meatgrinders and fire bags. 

is compensated by the use of FPV drones and cluster munitions 

FPV drones can´t compensate for 152mm HEAT rounds.
Cluster ammo from the west is not impressive with a huge failure rate of the bomblets to explode.

I think that if Russia is making advances along the entire frontlines and is predicted to liberate even more territory wrote:

There is almost no progress on the front. Chasiv Yar fighting is still ongoing and may continue for many more months. In the Kharkov region, the offensive is moving very slowly. Currently, the front is static everywhere. Sometimes the Russians will capture a village.

flamming_python wrote:
What do you mean no progress?

He meant, that he is a dumb troll thirsty for feedback.

I guess while they wait, it is mostly just picking off Ukrainians and mercs from a distance to dwindle their numbers.

You need to push a little to force the enemy to send reinforcements.
That shows your ISR the logistics and rear services, the ammo and fuel depots, the command structure...
Next step are the deep strikes with artillery, glide bombs and all kinds of missiles.
The modern term for this is meatgrinder.

Arrow wrote:
There is almost no progress on the front. Chasiv Yar fighting is still ongoing and may continue for many more months. In the Kharkov region, the offensive is moving very slowly. Currently, the front is static everywhere. Sometimes the Russians will capture a village.

Literally cribbing from the losers of WW2.
You, owais usmani, and Karl Haushofer are some of the dumbest fucking niggers on this fucking website. Bar none.