Russian special military operation in Ukraine #57

Arkanghelsk wrote:

flamming_python wrote:Britain doesn't have the capability, doesn't matter how loudly their political class barks

ATACMS, HIMARS - these are all American capabilities, sometimes co-ordinated with French or British specialists with their own missiles. Don't know who pilots the drones. Targeting, satellite data and so on are all American assets too. But it makes sense to consider it a collective of NATO here rather than pick out a country individually.

Ukrainians have the role of loading rockets into the tubes in the best case.

That still leaves the major question

Who will receive the main response?

You have to pick one of them - so who? And do you do it openly ? Or do you enable a sort of covert attack that makes it undeniable who it was, but without a trace a la nord stream 2

We have to use imagination ! For example : ( 1 ) Airfield in Poland ? Poland screams blue murder and calls NATO ! Uncle Sam to rescue little brother . ( 2 ) Munition factory in Germany ? The same . ( 3 ) UK early warning Radar ? The same . ( 4 ) American statue of liberty ? Nobody there to rescue ! They hit big uncle Sam ! Of course fired from the LDPR liberation front government .

Seems FORTE12 disabled its transponder or Russia decided to do something about it

The global hawk over the Black Sea has disappeared from flight radar

I find it funny that the Doomers in the chat are whining again about NATO provocations and wanting Putin to shoot missiles at NATO vassals in response when the outcome would likely lead to a general mobilization of the Russian population and an immediate transition to a wartime economy, basically throwing all the work Russia's government did over the last 2+ years into the trash.

The same doomers who said Putin should've intervened in 2014 when Russia was way more dependent on the EU/US and the 13000 sanctions would've absolutely devastated the Russian economy, ironically leading people (like flamming and ark) to march on the streets demanding Putin's resignation and replacement with someone "more competent"... like Navalny, lol.

Broski wrote:I find it funny that the Doomers in the chat are whining again about NATO provocations and wanting Putin to shoot missiles at NATO vassals in response when the outcome would likely lead to a general mobilization of the Russian population and an immediate transition to a wartime economy, basically throwing all the work Russia's government did over the last 2+ years into the trash.

The same doomers who said Putin should've intervened in 2014 when Russia was way more dependent on the EU/US and the 13000 sanctions would've absolutely devastated the Russian economy, ironically leading people (like flamming and ark) to march on the streets demanding Putin's resignation and replacement with someone "more competent"... like Navalny, lol.

You need to listen to the entire Russian leadership and what they are saying right now

Everyone is saying the same thing

SPIEF and BRICS are secondary to the survival of the state

Arkanghelsk wrote:

flamming_python wrote:Britain doesn't have the capability, doesn't matter how loudly their political class barks

ATACMS, HIMARS - these are all American capabilities, sometimes co-ordinated with French or British specialists with their own missiles. Don't know who pilots the drones. Targeting, satellite data and so on are all American assets too. But it makes sense to consider it a collective of NATO here rather than pick out a country individually.

Ukrainians have the role of loading rockets into the tubes in the best case.

That still leaves the major question

Who will receive the main response?

You have to pick one of them - so who? And do you do it openly ? Or do you enable a sort of covert attack that makes it undeniable who it was, but without a trace a la nord stream 2

I've made my opinion known already. Adopt some sort of flimsy deniability like NATO has with its "Ukrainians have a right to strike back!" and then hit NATO territory directly. Czech Republic or Poland or Romania ABM or air defense facilities with US personnel will do. Say it was done by the Palestinian Liberation Front.

flamming_python wrote:
I've made my opinion known already. Adopt some sort of flimsy deniability like NATO has with its "Ukrainians have a right to strike back!" and then hit NATO territory directly. Czech Republic or Poland or Romania ABM or air defense facilities with US personnel will do. Say it was done by the Palestinian Liberation Front.

I can’t believe this is about to happen

Everyone from Lavrov to Ryabkov , Putin, is saying the same thing - I think they’ve made up their mind

I have the same feeling as 24/02/2022

But this is going to be worse , just my gut feeling

Broski wrote:I find it funny that the Doomers in the chat are whining again about NATO provocations and wanting Putin to shoot missiles at NATO vassals in response when the outcome would likely lead to a general mobilization of the Russian population and an immediate transition to a wartime economy, basically throwing all the work Russia's government did over the last 2+ years into the trash.

The same doomers who said Putin should've intervened in 2014 when Russia was way more dependent on the EU/US and the 13000 sanctions would've absolutely devastated the Russian economy, ironically leading people (like flamming and ark) to march on the streets demanding Putin's resignation and replacement with someone "more competent"... like Navalny, lol.

All that work that Russia's government did over the last 2+ years will go into the trash anyway if NATO missiles start impacting Russian cities, factories, etc..

And even Russia's military-industrial production advantage can be cut-down if it starts to come under attack, while NATO's military industries remain safe and sound and are able to ramp up however slowly - unmolested

Understand this - if it's possible to get NATO to back down and cease further escalations, by downing some Global Hawk in the Black Sea or whatever; then I'm all for it.
However everything I've seen is this whole war only tends towards further escalation and precisely because of what seems to be the US obsession with trying to one-up their opponent and gain a psychological advantage via this crazy gun cowboy act of a madman that will stop at nothing, so everyone else better back down. That's how they scoped out Iran's limits and are now pressing all their buttons.

One of the common denominators here is that Russia has never been ready to do anything but react, and most often not even in parity terms. And we're at the point now that further escalation will indeed bring us to general mobilization and a wartime economy. So it's time to stop it, and using a new strategy. I have faith that cool heads will ultimately prevail but it may be necessary to take things to the brink as otherwise the US will just carry on their act and be able to present it as a working strategy.

1 An-124 pulled out of storage; IMO, more may follow :
https://defence-blog.com/russia-returns-aircraft-from-boneyard-for-war-in-ukraine/

3 remaining An-22s to be retired in 2024: https://tass.com/defense/1797853

Escalation:
https://www.ng.ru/cis/2024-06-04/1_9022_ukraine.html?print=Y
https://topcor.ru/48155-u-moskvy-gotov-otvet-ssha-za-razreshenie-vashingtona-kievu-bit-vglub-rf.html

Crimean Bridge robust defenses:
https://ru.krymr.com/a/su57-krym-most-be12-mig-zashita/32977164.html

Of course the West is obsessed with world domination . The ghosts of Vietnam were exorcised by the relative victories in the ME . Or the murder of millions at an affordable price of a few thousand dead GI and a trillion Dollars of tax payer money for the MIC . So now the West is flying on a magic carpet of last victories into a dreamland of world domination , defeating Russia and China ! It is not their fault . But Russia allowing red lines to be crossed , in effect did not give them a slap to wake them from their slumber . This one was Russia's fault .

Did say two years ago that NATO was not a real unitary entity , but more of a paper idea , written in ink . Like a loose collection of billiard balls on the snooker table , ready to fly apart from a well aimed shot ! Warned that if an early shot was not delivered , then this collection will start to coalesce into a real body . I am sorry to say that in the absence of a response by Russia , that now NATO has become a unitary body . More than half a dozen NATO nations allowing use of their supplier weapons to be used against Russia , on Russian soil .

What one man knows or predicts , society may come to know later . Now we are at the point of nuclear war . All because not sufficient reaction and deterrence was shown to stop the escalation . Still not too late . Whenever you catch the Fish , it is fresh ! But make sure it is the biggest Fish .

We're not at the point of nuclear war yet and no NATO is not a united entity

Arkhangelsk is just dooming here, I suspect the Russian leadership is still deliberating and will continue to, until the next escalation.

Big_Gazza wrote:

Tsavo Lion wrote:Crimean Bridge robust defenses:
https://ru.krymr.com/a/su57-krym-most-be12-mig-zashita/32977164.html

Pfftt..  5th columnist sh_t.  The article cites "experts" that call the Su-57 a "poor mans stealth fighter" or that the Ukrops will destroy the Crimea bridge after its air defenses are taken out...

many others on both sides said that it's not worth taking out, as most military supplies go overland via the new railroad along the Azov Sea coast. But I like that they use their old An-26s as MPA, & those can be converted to gunships, if need be.
Cruise speed: 440 km/h (270 mph, 240 kn)
Range: 2,500 km (1,600 mi, 1,300 nmi) with maximum fuel
Range with max payload: 1,100 km (680 mi)
Service ceiling: 7,500 m (24,600 ft)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov_An-26#Specifications