Russian special military operation in Ukraine #57

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Bruh......10x10k (assuming the Russians aren't lying about their kia because you can fanboy all you want but hard to say if they are or aren't).   Regardless that would be 100k a month and that's frankly BS if the Russians where killing that many men every month Ukraine would have run out of men by now, hell even the 50k a month is pure BS.

Not that I doubt they could get such numbers but the way they are operating right now and the fact they roughly the same amount of men if not less which is more realistic means they do not have the capacity for that

Learn math man


I love how people here buy such obvious BS simply because someone in Russia says it.

lol seems everyone in this forum needs to learn math

5 to 1

500k irretrievable Ukrainian losses

100k Russian irretrievable losses

For Russia that’s 85k + 23k LDNR = 107k

If you add sanitary losses, minor injuries you get the US figure of 325k Russian losses (makes sense as Russia has helicopters to evacuate wounded and superior medicine to Ukraine )

So Russia fits the 1 to 3 traditional KIA to WIA figures , 10k a month , 3k irretrievably lost, 7k sanitary losses

If you add sanitary losses to 500k irretrievable losses for Ukraine , with a 50/50 loss rate due to lack of helicopters and battlefield medicine

You have 1 million Ukrainian losses (Ukraine loses 1 to 1 KIA to WIA)

Let’s do further math

18-25 year old generation was born at a rate of 100k-150k per year from 1999-2006

That’s 7 years x 150k = 1,050,000 available men for mobilization

Let’s say half of those ran to Europe

That leaves an available draft pool of 525k on the high end

On the lower end 700k (100k x 7) = 700k / 2 = 350k

Russia is removing 50k Ukrops per month , half of those are irretrievable

12 months x 30k = 360k

24 months x 30k = 720k

33 months x 30k = 990k or 1 million

So we have 1-2.5 years before Ukraine completely runs out of manpower depending on how you view not only Ukraines demography but also mobilizable draft pool

Putin gave us all a very simple message, this will be over by Q2-Q4 2025

Simply because Ukraine will be out of men

Simplicius did a similar job and much more detailed

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/putin-gives-first-official-idea-of?utm_medium=web&publication_id=1351274&triedRedirect=true

[quote="Mir"
These are all socialist brothers from the past - and yes it is paying off for Russia. However the real issue is Europe and the US. Not too many of those (from the west) made the trip to the USSR to get a proper education. In fact they were indoctrinated with fear and hatred for the red danger that will come and rape their woman. It is embedded in their minds that Putin is an evil communist ready to take away their TV channels.

[/quote]

But it is nothing new, and Russia deals with that sort of actions for it's entire history.

Just one example, how the propaganda looked like back in the XIXc :



This sort of things were used to stereotyping every opponent, but Russia - no matter the form - always "enjoyed" specially warm attention.
This thing is ridiculous to anyone who knows the history because for most of the time, Russia's role was positive.
Protectorates they have established preserved lot's of small nations.
Greece and Bulgaria enjoyed freedom thanks to Russia.
Before the 1st Partition of Poland, it was no other than Catherina the Great who struggled to retain Polish sovereignty, which was already at risk from Prussia.
Of course, undereducated idiots in Poland see that other way, but who cares about idiots?

Actually the Ukrainian casualty calculation is in part a huge reason why the west is panicking over Ukraine and trying to throw the board

What Russia needs to do is to provide those countries with grievances close to the US and Europe

So Latin America and Africa with resources like food and the ability to process their own energy and resources so they can begin to recover from years of isolation and sanctions that have harmed the well being of the population at large

Also educate them as Russia does with its new universities in Africa

And raise these people up

Ofc the US won’t like that and will say the leaders of those countries are not democratically elected and elections are false and fraudulent

And they will attempt to use the same methods as they use in Ukraine, Libya, Georgia, Gaza to restrict their development

What Russia needs to do is to provide these countries with the means to help themselves economically and socially

But also militarily to have the means to inflict unacceptable damage to US proxies and the US itself

Same goes for Africa with regard to Europe, and Surovikin and Wagner do a good job of that , decolonizing Africa and New Caledonia of French imperialism

And now in Latin America , El Salvador, Nicaragua, Cuba, and apparently Mexico will all need that

Bukele, Ortega, Sheinbaum, Diaz Canel can form the basis of the axis of resistance

Turn the Gulf of Mexico into a global sea instead of an internal one

“None of the ships carry nuclear weapons, so their stay in our country does not pose a threat to the region,”

But they could.

Last year's docking of a US nuclear submarine at Guantanamo Bay Naval Base ruffled feathers in Havana, with the Cuban government calling it a "provocative escalation."

Maybe because Guantanamo is illegaly occupied.

There are no plans for mobilization in Russia, there is no need - Putin.

Present tense

Plans can appear, the need can arise

Not him personally but a skilled team on his behalf



Anti Cringe Warlord@dontbecringey


Remember the "destroyed" submarine Rostov? Putin resurrected it and today it left the dock in Sevastopol after complete resurrection.

Russias needs to build a large and simple ship with nuclear power. This ship will carry a few hundred nuclear tipped Tsirkons and a significant number of antiship and SAMs. This ship will be parked in international waters of the coast of Virginia the equal distance from any US nukes to Moscow. It will be visible and clear. Able to take out DC in a few minutes.

they already have the Adm. Nakhimov CGN armed with "nuclear tipped Tsirkons and a significant number of antiship and SAMs", & its sister ship will undergo refit. But, Russia also doesn't even need to deploy Tu-22M/160Ms to Cuba, Nicaragua or Venezuela: the IL-38s (btw, they r more costly than the converted An-26s to operate in the Black Sea) & Tu-142s has a secondary strategic role & can carry LR Ash/LACMs to keep both US coasts under ICR & subject to S/HS strikes with only minutes of warning.

Arkanghelsk wrote:Same goes for Africa with regard to Europe, and Surovikin and Wagner do a good job of that, decolonizing Africa and New Caledonia of French imperialism.

IMO France should just sell/lease New Caledonia to Australia or USA to make up for her lost submarine deal. Portugal, Germany & Spain lost all their colonies in Asia-Pacific & now it's France's turn.

flamming_python wrote:Present tense

Plans can appear, the need can arise

Of course they can, that is why Russia has upgraded and automated its mobilization system.

JohninMK wrote:Not him personally but a skilled team on his behalf
Remember the "destroyed" submarine Rostov? Putin resurrected it and today it left the dock in Sevastopol after complete resurrection.

Now this is a news.
When Russkie called to get it back to business in 6 months, I was skeptical.
This boat looked physically gutted.
If they really brought it back in a timeline, this means that the boat is harder than I have ever expected and they operate a repair shipyard much more competent than I would assume considering Crimea.
Call me shocked.

It left under own power?

That sub is Now In New Hiding Place In Sevastopol: https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/06/russian-submarine-hit-by-missiles-now-in-new-hiding-place-in-sevastopol/
It could be possible to cut the damaged section out & put a new section in- like when AIP section was added to Swedish SSK: https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/05/a19-submarine-hswms-gotland-back-in-swedish-navy-service-following-upgrade/  But even if it's a total write off, most of its gear & parts r sulvagable.

The promised Mirage 2000-5s may turn into a mirage in Ukraine, as their impact won't be felt much, if at all!
https://www.ng.ru/news/794855.html?print=Y

https://regnum.ru/opinion/3894046?utm_campaign=regnum&utm_term=top_opinion

Ch-101 had a cluster warhead from the very beginning.
They have just started to use the version, as the target variety changed.

Other statements by the President at the plenary session of the SPIEF-2024:


More than 300,000 people came to the military recruitment offices and signed a contract last year, and this year, over 160,000 have already done so;  

We see what the Russian character is, and we rely on it, and we don't need any nuclear weapons;  

We have the right to respond in kind to the supply of weapons to Ukraine that strike Russia;  

The military decisions of the Russian authorities are based on the analysis of the situation, and there are no "hesitations and cannot be any";  

The idea of introducing a rigid state ideology in Russia contradicts the Сonstitution;  


The unifying idea for Russia is patriotism.  


Join the live stream in English at http://t.me/ukraine_watch

Does the lease for gitmo include the water part? cuba should lease the northern section of Gitmo to Russia and Russia should build an airbase there and start sailiing subs into the northern bay

I don't think New Caledonia would appreciate being sold at auction like a slave and I would expect any new owner will have problems proving ownership.

I'm sure many Kanaks will hope to get a better deal from the non-French; if they stay as the French Overseas Department, i.e. de-facto colony, their identity will be diluted & lost eventualy.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-f-16-bottlenecks-1909652
By the end of 2025, with the US elections over, the war may be lost or stopped anyway.

By the time Russia finishes moving the border 300km West the "Ukrainians" will be armed with 3000km missiles. wrote:

JASSM missiles launched from the F 16 may be a problem in the future. A 300 km buffer zone would require a very large offensive. Given current tactics, this is out of the question.

So when do expect F-16's to enter into actual combat?

Mir wrote:So when do expect F-16's to enter into actual combat?

About 5-10 minutes before they hit the deck with a wing blown off and riddled with frag, burning from radome to rudder...  

ALAMO wrote:
Just one example, how the propaganda looked like back in the XIXc :

Yeah, its propaganda, but they got the Balkans 100% right

A Bradley vs BTR82 in a realy close combat encounter near Sokol. Both fired at each other and some of the infantry on top of the BTR got hit, but in the end the BTR82 was able to maneuver into a better position and nailed the Bradley. Some 404's managed to ran away from the stricken Bradley. Apparently the abandoned Bradley was destroyed by artillery fire shortly after the incident. Good to know that the BTR was able to survive 25mm hits.