Russian special military operation in Ukraine #58

Poland owns one battery of Patriots at the moment, in PAC3 MSE configuration. It has a maximum range of slightly over 100 km against aerodynamic, high/slow flying targets. wrote:

Perhaps they think they will enter Ukrainian airspace with their F-16s and intercept cruise missiles directly over Ukraine?

might be the case, as Russkie does not own weaponry ranged long enough to deal with airplanes flying in the western part of Ukraine. Still, there will be nothing that can deal with Ch-22/32, Iskander or Oniks. Russkie will just change the sort of weapon used. wrote:

I think even the Ch-101 will be difficult for them to intercept. They have to detect them first, but this is a missile that flies very low and has a reduced RCS.
The only interesting thing is that they are not afraid because it is almost an official entry into the war.

the last attack on Kiev showed the complete defeat of the Ukrainian and Western AD. Patriot didn't intercept anything. Kiev is currently the best protected city in Europe, apart from Moscow.The attack itself was very minor. They didn't even have to saturate the AD defense. Several PAC-3/2 batteries were concentrated near Kiev.

It is an official entry into the war, it would amount to a direct intervention in the war, providing a no-fly zone for one of the sides in an armed conflict is exactly that. And it would be an act of war against Russia accordingly. wrote:

The question is whether Russia will react to this? Or not, and it will simply continue to attack targets in Western Ukraine, regardless of Polish aviation.

If Poland decides to shoot down Russian missiles with its own air defence systems then those air defence systems would have to be destroyed; they are protecting enemy assets such as airbases and radars and ammo depots that are in turn being used to strike Russian targets. wrote:

That is, in total, direct attacks on the PAC-3 system and the airports where F16 are stationed in Poland. It's getting very dangerous in Europe in general.

Meanwhile, the West will donate another four Patriot batteries to Ukraine, and another five batteries by the end of the year. Of course, it won't change anything anyway. And the Patriot systems themselves will be consistently eliminated. By the way, they still have a lot of these Patriots in the West.

A last point from me on the hospital. The photos of the immediate aftermath showed very large numbers of uniformed men hard at work. Strangely, very quickly, very few in civvies and NO children.

Similar to that pizza restaurant/hotel hit a few months ago. Both had all the hallmarks of military use. 

It is hard to believe that a child's hospital would take priority over military use, as hospital or barracks, in Ukraine.

WSJ: Russia Will Become Even Better at Intercepting Missiles with Electronic Warfare, by Dmitry Zubarev for VZGLYAD. 07.10.2024.

Russian forces are gradually adapting electronic warfare (EW) systems to intercept precision-guided munitions and will be able to intercept ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles more often in the future, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing Ukrainian intelligence officials and Pentagon officials.

As WSJ writes , Russian troops have learned to suppress GPS-guided missiles, including Excalibur and HIMARS. At the same time, Ukraine is currently using ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles to strike Russian forces, but the newspaper's sources emphasize that the Russian side is adapting electronic warfare systems to intercept these targets as well, RIA Novosti reports.

According to the publication, Western military doctrine has been effective in regional conflicts in the Middle East, but may not work in the fight against a major adversary.

"We must have made mistakes because for the last 20 years we have been launching precision-guided munitions at people who could do nothing about it. Now we are doing it against a peer, and Russia and China have that capability," the newspaper quotes General Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, as saying.

Earlier, the commander of the air defense forces, Andrei Semenov , stated that the American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems delivered to Ukraine failed to fulfill their task during a special military operation.

https://vz.ru/news/2024/7/10/1276945.html

GarryB wrote:So this no fly zone they want over Lvov... do you think that ties into their plans to build factories for making all sorts of things in the Ukraine they keep talking about... they would need to establish a no fly zone before they could start making german tanks and artillery shells etc etc etc...

What's the point of building factories in Ukria which can be taken out easily by Russia? There is no such thing as a NATzO ABM system that can take
out enough Russian missiles to stop these factories being deleted. Nothing is stopping transport of military hardware into Ukria through the Polish border
which has been going on since before 2022.

Kiko wrote:

According to the publication, Western military doctrine has been effective in regional conflicts in the Middle East, but may not work in the fight against a major adversary.

The use of the word "may" is utterly delusional. The proper word to use is will.

ALAMO wrote:
Poland faces huge energy inflation, with electricity bills skyrocketing since July 1st.
MWh price is higher than in Germany and the UK, while the income is still half of it.
De facto it is the highest energy price all over Europe other than Italy.

Perfect time to send electricity to Ukria for free.

Calibers fly very low over the Caspian Sea. The fishermen are happy


https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/115884