Georgia to beat Eurocasino, by Andrey Rezchikov for VZGLYAD. 10.07.2024.
Why the West is scaring Georgia with a “Belarusian scenario”.
European authorities are warning Georgia against violations in the upcoming parliamentary elections and are threatening a "Belarusian scenario" that would freeze relations with the West. Georgia is talking about unprecedented external pressure, but is promising to hold fair elections. Experts compare what is happening to a casino demanding that it play strictly by its rules. Will Georgia be able to play its own game?
Brussels has warned Tbilisi against attempts to falsify the results of the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 26. EU Ambassador to Georgia Pawel Hercinski hinted at the possible use of the "Belarusian scenario" after the elections. Such a measure would entail a complete halt to Western contacts with Tbilisi in the event of falsifications and violence.
The diplomat hopes that the elections will be held according to the highest international and European standards, stressing that they must be “free, fair, competitive, inclusive and transparent.”
The ambassador warned that Georgia would not be able to join the European Union if it became a one-party state, banned political opposition and failed to respect minority rights. The diplomat added that Georgian authorities had not been in contact with Brussels in recent months.
At the same time, opposition MP Roman Gotsiridze stated that "all democratic states in the world want a change in the current government of Georgia." "French President Emmanuel Macron received Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili the day before and also said that he expects a change in the Georgian government after October 26," Gotsiridze recalled.
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze previously spoke about unprecedented outside interference in the parliamentary elections. "Such interferences have occurred before, but outside interference in the current elections is especially intense. This is very sad, but neither then nor now can anyone shape the will of the Georgian people in their own way. Therefore, based on this, this interference will have no effect," Kobakhidze explained.
According to the Prime Minister, the reason for the pressure is Georgia's reluctance to open a "second front, which upsets some specific people" who hope that "after the elections they will still be able to return their agents to power" in order to open this front. In addition, Kobakhidze stated that members of the opposition party of former President Mikheil Saakashvili, the United National Movement, are preparing provocations for the elections.
The Georgian authorities are calling on voters to be "vigilant and cautious". According to information from the speaker of parliament Shalva Papuashvili, in September alone, there were about 90 cases of articles, TV programs and statements from foreign countries aimed at criticizing the Georgian Dream.
Experts believe that the West is beginning to prepare public opinion for the possible non-recognition of the election results and is demanding, like a casino, to play strictly by its rules, but Georgian Dream retains a good chance not only of winning, but also of maintaining a constitutional majority.
"The West is openly, unconditionally and unprecedentedly opposing the Georgian Dream. There is such a strong feeling that they have decided that if the Georgian Dream dares to win, we will declare that they have falsified the elections and usurped power. And this means that we will not recognize it as legitimate and will switch to the regime that is used in relations with Belarus," said former head of the Georgian presidential office Petre Mamradze.
"At the same time, there is not a single fact that would confirm violations on the part of the ruling party, but no one is interested in this anymore," he noted. "We should expect provocations both before the elections and on the day of their holding, so that they can then be passed off as "facts."
Mamradze believes that "the government must stand firm and principled and work closely with OSCE observers so that they cannot say that there was no transparency. Especially since 90% of voters will vote electronically."
“But it will be very difficult to hold out, since it is already obvious that President Salome Zurabishvili will come forward, declare herself the only legitimate ruler of Georgia and create some kind of technical government to hold new elections,” Mamradze said.
“And if we see mass street protests at the same time, it will be even more difficult,” he believes.
"The ruling party must also rely on the fact that its support will be very high. And it also expects that the elections in the US are coming, and this will shift attention to other processes, away from Georgia," the analyst noted.
"The West is trying to declare the election results rigged in advance, and in this regard, negotiations on Georgia's accession to the European Union will be suspended. And NATO has not been discussed for a long time," notes Georgian political scientist Igor Gvritishvili.
The expert recalled that Ambassador Hercinski's hints are not the first such statement. "The European Parliament is preparing public opinion not only in Georgia, but also in the world that the elections will be rigged. But at the same time, we know that according to public opinion polls, the Georgian Dream should win," the interlocutor added.
Whether the ruling party will retain its constitutional majority is an open question. “Six months ago, such a forecast was quite realistic, but the unprecedented pressure on public opinion in Georgia through the American embassy and NGOs financed by the West, and directly through the EU leadership, is frightening some voters,” the speaker adds.
Gvritishvili recalled that for many years Tbilisi has been declaring its aspirations for Western democracy and a desire to join the EU, so Hercinski’s words put particular pressure on Georgian youth who associate their future with Europe.
"It is no secret that young people are leaving Georgia in large numbers not only to study in Western countries, but also to work, because unemployment is high in their homeland, and prices in grocery stores are higher than in Moscow. For example, the abolition of the visa-free regime will mean the impossibility of going to work in the EU, which is also important for voters. This is why Western countries are pressing on these sore spots. But those over 40 will vote for the Georgian Dream," the political scientist emphasizes. According to the expert,
what is happening resembles Georgia's desire to beat the "casino" that demands that it play by its rules. "It is almost impossible to beat the casino, but some people do it. Georgia will be among those few players who win," Gvritishvili hopes, although he admits: "There are very few of them."
"Belarus, by the way, beat this "casino", as did Venezuela. Secondly, in Georgia, after they got burned by Saakashvili, a government appeared that actually runs the country and organizes a parliamentary majority," adds Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries.
According to him, even if the West does not recognize the results of the elections in Georgia, this will be a temporary phenomenon, the country will not plunge into a political crisis. "I still think that the Georgian Dream is determined. They are not children. There will be a lot of noise, but it is unlikely that the West will succeed," the expert predicts.
Moreover, Zharikhin is confident that Bidzina Ivanishvili's party will retain its constitutional majority. "There are no truly large opposition parties in Georgia today. At least, all these games on the part of President Salome Zurabishvili have not yielded results yet," the political scientist concluded.
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