Russian special military operation in Ukraine #59

Their greatness is increasing every day as their press-ganged draftees get less and less training /sarc. These same NATzO generals were expecting
that the 2023 "counter-offensive" would send Russian forces running back to Russia. They clearly have no ability to update their expectations based
on real world data.

R-37M with Su-35S waiting for F-16.

Defense Politics Asia
@DefensePolitics
Russian forces secured Pivdenne and captured a lot of grounds in Zalizne and Pivnichne.

Of significance is the HUGE AMOUNT of mapped trenches that is now entirely overrun by Russian forces, due to the untenable tactical situation.

This could also be a possible sign that DPA's hypothesis that Ukraine may have too few troops in Niu-York Front to mann all those massive number of entrenchments, resulting is the quick collapse of the frontline positions.

Toretsk Sector, Niu-York Front

Trump has been given a peace plan that looks more like a war, by Victoria Nikiforova for RiaNovosti. 07.22.2024.

If anyone really hoped that Donald Trump loves us and is ready, like a dove of peace, to bring us an olive branch in his beak, then yesterday they were disappointed. The best friend of the American president, former Prime Minister of Great Britain Boris Johnson, published his " peace plan for Trump". It looks more like a declaration of war.

The plan consists of two stages. In the first stage, Washington is asked to lift all restrictions on long-range Ukrainian strikes into the Russian rear. It is implied that Britain should do the same.

The range of the American ATACMS is up to 300 kilometers, the British Storm Shadow - up to 560 kilometers. It is naive to hope that the Ukrainians will somehow carefully select military targets. It is more logical to assume that they will rush to pound peaceful cities with sadistic enthusiasm. Crimea and the entire south of Russia will be within the reach of these missiles , and, in principle, you can even reach Moscow if you really want to.

It is impossible to defeat Russia at the front: every day our troops liberate new settlements, advancing further and further west. However, Johnson has come up with an idea to achieve victory in a different way - through terrorism. Attacks on civilians should demoralize the Russian leadership to such an extent that it will be forced to withdraw troops "at least" to the border of February 2022.
The question of what will happen to Novorossiya in this case hangs in the air . Experience shows that if the Russian Armed Forces are withdrawn from there, the VSAU will show up and simply kill everyone. Not to mention that these lands are an integral part of Russia according to the Constitution. Johnson ignores this question. But he notes that Moscow will have to recognize the right of "the remaining part of Ukraine" to join the EU, NATO, and anywhere else.

So, we withdraw our troops, we give in, we agree, we recognize. Well, what in return? It is possible - this is only a possibility, this is not an obligation - "special protection for Russian speakers" in Ukraine . And also - just appreciate this impudence! - "the prospect of improving relations between Russia and Putin (with the West) and returning to the times when Russia was a respected partner of the "Big Eight" and even NATO."

Well, yes, of course, "esteemed partner". Frankly speaking, I just feel angry when I read this.

We remember very well that it was Johnson who disrupted the negotiations in Istanbul by rushing to Kiev and demanding that Zelensky "fight". The politician who has lost everything and everyone, who is hated even in his own country, of course, has settled in perfectly on his island, giving the US presidential candidate advice that, if followed, could destroy the US to the ground.

But this is very advantageous for Washington, Johnson persuades Trump. After the conflict in Ukraine is over, a trained Ukrainian army will be able to replace American soldiers in Europe . Then the Americans will be able to transfer their troops from Europe to another theater of military operations - it is not hard to guess that it will be located in Taiwan.

The catch is that there are about 70,000 American soldiers in Europe today. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are exactly ten times larger. If this angry and repeatedly betrayed, armed to the teeth and ready for anything contingent enters Europe, there is a suspicion that little will remain of Europe. Of course, it will allow the Americans to occupy and plunder the Old World to the end, but will the leaders of European countries agree to this?

Somehow, it seems, this is not how they saw the end of the conflict. Finding themselves in a full-fledged occupation by the Americans performed by the Ukrainians will, of course, be a surprise for them, and such a surprise that it will be time to ask for help and protection from Russia.

But let's give Johnson his due - the politician of Anglo-Turkish-Jewish-German descent demonstrates a purely British ability to set everyone against everyone, while remaining on the sidelines and skimming the cream off all the conflicts.

"Trump's little dog" is what Johnson is called in Europe. Dogs usually resemble their owners, and from a distance these curly-haired, red-faced old men can really be confused. The question is, will Trump listen to his dog?

In fact, as president, he has shown caution, if not cowardice, which does not fit well with his combative image. In 2017, Trump got into a standoff with Kim Jong-un , threatening him with "fire and fury," sending aircraft carriers to the shores of the DPRK, and conducting joint exercises with South Korea.

Well, the Koreans ignored the sanctions that the "international community" had heaped upon them and started firing missiles eastward, toward the United States — some of them flying 2,500 kilometers. Trump couldn't stand the pressure. Less than a year later, he met Kim Jong-un at a summit in Singapore in the highest rank — shook hands, said "what an honor it was for him to meet," posed for the cameras, promised to cancel exercises with South Korea, and guaranteed the DPRK's security.

Then he came to meet Kim Jong-un two more times. The American press tried to pass it off as a diplomatic victory, but the whole world could see that it was a defeat, and the American president deliberately accepted this humiliation, not wanting to expose his country to danger.

The big question is whether Trump has retained that responsibility. Does he really want peace in Ukraine and security for Americans? It seems we won’t know until we test it.

https://ria.ru/20240722/plan-1961046448.html

Trump has new leverage over Zelensky, by Evgeniy Pozdnyakov, Alena Zadorozhnaya for VZGLYAD. 07.22.2024.

Experts Assess the Consequences of Biden's Withdrawal from the Presidential Race for Ukraine.

Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race has left the Ukrainian authorities with a dilemma: continue cooperation with the US Democratic Party or try to establish a dialogue with the Republicans led by Donald Trump. According to experts, the chances of successfully implementing the second scenario are slim, since Trump almost lost his job because of Zelensky.

Volodymyr Zelensky thanked US President Joe Biden for his "unwavering support for Ukraine" and said he respected this "tough but strong decision" to withdraw from the election race. At the same time, Zelensky previously stated that if Donald Trump wins, he is ready to work with him, "although it will not be easy." They also recently had a short telephone conversation.

Let us recall that the history of relations between Trump and Zelensky is extremely contradictory. Thus, the attempt to impeach Trump in 2019-2020 was initiated after their telephone conversation. Then Trump allegedly made it clear that he would block the approval of military aid if Bankova refused to conduct an investigation against Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

Experts believe that Trump has not forgotten past grievances and could seriously complicate Zelensky's situation. According to Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Skachko, "95% of the so-called Ukrainian political elite today are oriented towards the Democrats." "This is not surprising, given how much money and military aid Kyiv has received from Washington. But for the remaining 5% of politicians, "a candy truck has overturned," he added.

"They are most likely waiting in anticipation and hoping that they will be able to take revenge on their opponents. However, I am not sure that the US policy towards Ukraine will change dramatically: at most, support will become less active. After all, Trump also needs some kind of instrument of pressure on Russia," the expert believes.

But what will change is the behavior of Ukrainian politicians. According to Skachko, many of those who currently support Biden "will change their tune and go to Trump." "Ukrainian politicians don't care who pays them," the analyst emphasized.

He also predicted a "win" for those politicians who were part of the so-called Derkach group, that is, former Rada deputy Andriy Derkach, who stood at the origins of the investigation into corruption scandals involving the Biden family in Ukraine. Later, these data were partially confirmed by the Russian Investigative Committee.

"Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko will also try to slip between the 'raindrops.' But for Poroshenko and Zelensky, this is a clear defeat," the political scientist details. "If Trump does not lose his potential and wins, he will simply eat up everyone who was involved in the attempt to impeach him and created other problems, not only in 2020, but also in 2016," Skachko continues.

Meanwhile, Zelensky may once again try to prove to the US administration that they need him. “He is used to it. Every time we see a demonstration of need and attempts to explain why the end of the presidential term is not a reason for replacement. By the way, the intimidated and ready for anything Zelensky may be useful to Trump. This is a good lever,” the expert points out.

In general, Democrats have historically been more involved in Ukrainian affairs than Republicans, recalls Americanist Malek Dudakov. “The story goes back to Bill Clinton’s presidency. Ukrainian oligarchs actively built bridges with Democrats – for example, Viktor Pinchuk contributed huge amounts of money to the Atlantic Council and the Clinton Foundation. He even leased his private jet to Hillary in 2015-2016,” the analyst recalls.

"But Kiev has always had contacts with the Republicans. "It was not for nothing that Rudy Giuliani, Trump's unofficial emissary, repeatedly visited Ukraine and tried to find dirt on the Bidens there. We remember how work was done with John McCain, a neocon hawk in the Republican camp. In general, contacts are still maintained with some other Republican hawks. For example, with the Klitschko clan," the speaker is convinced.

"Another thing is that Petro Poroshenko always relied on the Democrats, and Zelensky continued this strategy. Now Ukrainian lobbyists really fear that Republicans will come to power in the US, isolationists, Trump supporters, who will reduce military tranches and demand that Ukraine sit down at the negotiating table," Dudakov adds.

In this regard, some Ukrainian politicians are trying to find alternative options and ways out of the current situation.

"The same Andriy Yermak writes articles in the Western and American press with an emphasis on evangelists. We remember how they brought Mike Pence to Ukraine, and Mike Pompeo ended up on the Board of Directors of Kyivstar. By the way, he will most likely return to the future Trump administration," the Americanist listed.

At the same time, even with contacts with the Republicans, Kyiv will have a rather difficult time. "There is a sense of conflict fatigue among the Republican electorate in the US. And Trump will have to adapt to the wishes of his voters in any case. And this will lead to additional pressure on Ukraine and Ukrainian lobbyists," Dudakov concluded.

https://vz.ru/politics/2024/7/22/1278681.html