Russian special military operation in Ukraine #59

caveat emptor wrote:Russia has 100k dead by now, if not more. Nobody cares about Ukrainians in the West. They're just useful idiots and will be scapegoats when all this is over. 

On another note, it looks like Russian security forces are still divided in clans. April Alaudinov blames some circles in MoD for Kursk situation. 

https://t.me/AptiAlaudinovAKHMAT/5175

Starting from 3:30.

Russia has 100k dead only if you count all the LDNR forces as part of the Russian military. But they took most of their casualties before they were integrated into the Russian military.
The regular Russian military and Rosgvardia and Wagner have about 70k KIA if I had to make an informed guess.
The Ukrainians have far higher casualties, and it's anyone's guess what the casualties of NATO mercs are. But if you think all those HIMARS, ATACMS, IRIS-Ts and all that other fancy gear which takes years to train people in and whose documentation is not available in Russian or Ukrainian - is being operated by anyone other than NATO personnel, then you need to revisit your assumptions. And a lot of that hardware has been taken out.

Apti Aluidinov is not bringing you 'insights' into the same MOD that happen to be his higher-ups, and certainly not when his own forces are engaged in that same battle. He's taking part in the info-war at the orders of the GRU or whoever is running that particular show.
Once again I fail to see any failures here other than the fact that the convoy was destroyed, but this is war and things go wrong.

I don't think it's possible to conceal or launch by surprise an operation of this scale in this day and age with all the technological means available and that would go for peacetime, much less a large-scale war already in progress. Even with all the incompetence in the world, the Russian side will still notice something is up. Hence we can chuck that theory out with the bathwater immediately.
And the fact that all these NATO capitals and NATO analysts, the ones who weren't in on it, are acting so apprehensively - is also telling. Because they know perfectly well that when Russia repels this attack, it can then use it to justify breaking off any prospect of peace negotiations and organize a new advance on Kiev. Something like what Russia did after the Chechen Islamists attacked Dagestan in 1999. Which BTW didn't take Russia by surprise either, despite the fact that the militants managed some local advances, in fact Russian reinforcements were already being assembled several days before the militants made their entrance.

PhSt wrote:Russia  needs to Declare War. Turn the entire Ukraine into a sea of fire and just rebuild everything from scratch.

Yes and no. While Russia does need to do a troop surge to drive on Dniepr and then quickly establish a pro Russian government there, they need to continue to avoid civilian deaths. That said, there are lots of bridges, paved airfields, government buildings, military bases, rail stations, internet data centers, banks, oligarch estates etc that are just begging to be hit. If while hitting these targets in and around Kiev and Lvov they ahould accidentally flatten some NATO consulates and embassy and take out some trash uh "ambassadors and diplomats" then well that's a price the west is just going to have to pay and if Iksandrs and other systems should just happen to crater the Sennpennwaffe's bases in Romania, well its war, shit happens man.

ucmvulcan wrote:

PhSt wrote:Russia  needs to Declare War. Turn the entire Ukraine into a sea of fire and just rebuild everything from scratch.

Yes and no.  While Russia does need to do a troop surge to drive on Dniepr and then quickly establish a pro Russian government there, they need to continue to avoid civilian deaths.  That said, there are lots of bridges, paved airfields, government buildings, military bases, rail stations, internet data centers, banks, oligarch estates etc that are just begging to be hit.  If while hitting these targets in and around Kiev and Lvov they ahould accidentally flatten some NATO consulates and embassy and take out some trash uh "ambassadors and diplomats" then well that's a price the west is just going to have to pay and if Iksandrs and other systems should just happen to crater the Sennpennwaffe's bases in Romania, well its war, shit happens man.

No Russian forces after driving back the Kursk incursion should enter the Sumi region and start advancing towards Kiev. Other forces can enter along other axi later.
There is no point mucking around with the Dnepr or Kharkov or Odessa or whatever, go for the seat of power and once it's taken, half of those objectives might fall without resistance.

IMO the Kursk incursion has given Russia the ideal opportunity to discard whatever prospects of peace talks and strike the regime down where it stands. No more visits of Kuleba to Beijing or the West encouraging Modi to get involved or whatever.
I say 'ideal' not because I'm a warmonger, but because those talks never had any prospects anyway. I'm sure of that now. Kiev was not prepared to take any of it seriously, so why carry on with this farce. Better a horrible end than horror without end, as the saying goes.

marcellogo wrote:IMHO this last Ukrainian move is absolutely rational and well though.
And in the same time absolutely DESPERATE as well.
Let's recap: Russians regular troops are actually thrashing their own defensive lines in Donetsk region , most precisely in the region between ADveevka, completely taken and Pokrovsk and even more dis-hearting for them in the Toresk-Niu York sector previously considered extremely strong and instead collapsing in less than a month.
In the meantime, the other factor that has allowed them to resist until now i.e. the mobilization of all their possible manpower is rapidly coming to an end also and unless they would resort to the extreme measures that the same Budanov has proposed it would be not nearly enough to counterbalance the rapid downfall of the aforementioned defence lines.
Budanov,we said?
Well, he is important there (IMHO) as he as the Chief of Armed Forces Intelligence also control the Ukrainian Spetsnats, DRG and Special Assault Units.(Kraken, Skala and so on...) and so it have a say in the development of the complessive strategy and in the use of such forces...
So, I could guess that's he is nso happy about the perspective of seeing his own well prepared and warlike units being used as cannon fodder for just keep on such crumbling lines.
So, he is probably the one behind this alternative operations.
Ukraine has actually just and handful of battle worn regular units retired from the first line and actually being reconstructed with untrained conscripts, some territorial units, its own special dorces and last and not least the units that are atually guarding the borders with Russia and Belarus.
So, instead to allow his specialized troops to be taken and put into the meat grinder, facing directly the Russian contract soldier units on the frontline, better use them together with the units stationed in the borders to open a new front and try to syphon there instead the next russian echelon.
For Budianov and his own power structure, this is highly advantageous move but for Ukraine?
The apparent rationality of such a move depend infact by the capacity of Russia to effectively activate and employ operatively their mobilized reserve i.e. troops actually not employed in Ukraine but just kept to guard the borders themselves.
So, in the end such a move could even possibly end up to allow Russia to even increase its own advantage instead of reduce it.
   
   

I honestly think it's nothing more than the actions of a rabid dog

Yes NATO has been involved in the attack's preparation but then they're just as desperate and mad too

They have rationale yes, Hitler had rationale too, everyone does. It's just not rationale that will make sense for anyone other than themselves.

Well, the CTO has now been extended to 3 provinces: Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk.

Belarus has also placed a CTO operation in border areas with Ukraine.

This more or less now gives the security forces all necessary control to do as needed without beaurocrats getting in the way.

flamming_python wrote:

Russia has 100k dead only if you count all the LDNR forces as part of the Russian military. But they took most of their casualties before they were integrated into the Russian military.
The regular Russian military and Rosgvardia and Wagner have about 70k KIA if I had to make an informed guess.
The Ukrainians have far higher casualties, and it's anyone's guess what the casualties of NATO mercs are. But if you think all those HIMARS, ATACMS, IRIS-Ts and all that other fancy gear which takes years to train people in and whose documentation is not available in Russian or Ukrainian - is being operated by anyone other than NATO personnel, then you need to revisit your assumptions. And a lot of that hardware has been taken out.

Always count LDNR, as they are Russians and fight on the same side.
As for equipment, i could buy your reasoning only if it comes to F-16 and then only for high level engagements and not to shoot down missiles and drones behind the frontlines and launch stand off missiles. For other equipment, Ukrainians are perfectly capable of using it. I think that they already proved long time ago they are not idiots.
As for NATO casualties,  i think that their number is greatly exaggerated in this forum and so are their casualties. According to Russian MoD few thousands Polish alone died, but it is clear that is not the truth. For your pleasure, let's put that number at 10k, which is extremely generous.

ucmvulcan wrote:

Not saying you're wrong but do you have sources for the hundred k dead figure?  I don't mean the Pentagram or the Ukronazis, I mean something credible.  BBC or Guardian had it at 50K some odd dead a couple months ago, and as bad as the convoy was, I don't think that killed quite that many.  Not attacking you, I am just genuinely curious where you are getting your data set fromm

Mediazona had the number at almost 62k ending with August 1, plus LDNR that is over 25K at this time. That makes it almost 90k already. Obviously, their way of search has limits and not every death can be tracked online.
I've seen even higher numbers quoted by Russian source based on probate records at almost 130k.
Obviously, both sides are hiding their numbers and they will, maybe be known after end of the war.

flamming_python wrote:

ucmvulcan wrote:

PhSt wrote:Russia  needs to Declare War. Turn the entire Ukraine into a sea of fire and just rebuild everything from scratch.

Yes and no.  While Russia does need to do a troop surge to drive on Dniepr and then quickly establish a pro Russian government there, they need to continue to avoid civilian deaths.  That said, there are lots of bridges, paved airfields, government buildings, military bases, rail stations, internet data centers, banks, oligarch estates etc that are just begging to be hit.  If while hitting these targets in and around Kiev and Lvov they ahould accidentally flatten some NATO consulates and embassy and take out some trash uh "ambassadors and diplomats" then well that's a price the west is just going to have to pay and if Iksandrs and other systems should just happen to crater the Sennpennwaffe's bases in Romania, well its war, shit happens man.

No Russian forces after driving back the Kursk incursion should enter the Sumi region and start advancing towards Kiev. Other forces can enter along other axi later.
There is no point mucking around with the Dnepr or Kharkov or Odessa or whatever, go for the seat of power and once it's taken, half of those objectives might fall without resistance.

IMO the Kursk incursion has given Russia the ideal opportunity to discard whatever prospects of peace talks and strike the regime down where it stands. No more visits of Kuleba to Beijing or the West encouraging Modi to get involved or whatever.
I say 'ideal' not because I'm a warmonger, but because those talks never had any prospects anyway. I'm sure of that now. Kiev was not prepared to take any of it seriously, so why carry on with this farce. Better a horrible end than horror without end, as the saying goes.

The Ukr population is dumb enough to be walked into gunfire , it is also pliant enough to just stop fighting and get on with regular life.

Taking out literally everyone involved with this regime govt was an opportunity missed.  Because I don't think the Ukr population would fight unless it was ordered to. It might come to that anyway. After Putin retires and a new president wants to role this up.

flamming_python wrote:

Apti Aluidinov is not bringing you 'insights' into the same MOD that happen to be his higher-ups, and certainly not when his own forces are engaged in that same battle. He's taking part in the info-war at the orders of the GRU or whoever is running that particular show.

Apti Alaudinov can say much more than your regular army general, because he is backed and protected by Kadirov. Others that spoke against MoD actions were quickly removed or jailed, Prigozhin was murdered, but with him, everything will go much harder. Also, from listening to his statements before, he comes across as very measured and professional guy, certainly not like other Chechen commanders.
Everything that has happened so far in this war, doesn't really leave much trust in actions of Russian MoD or General Stuff. There was so many scandals, intrigues, failed coup. Half of the MoD is in jail or under investigation. I don't think i have to go further. This is a general knowledge at this point.

Cavat is right in a way, his claims about half being jailed or investigated are a bit of dramatic effect but it is true Putin is silencing his critics in the way he is conducting the SMO

You can look at mevdev his words aren't the minority but the majority, lots of the duma and military leadership ship wants to go harder and change how the smo is conductes but they cannot because Putin won't let them.

The difference with Mevdev is he is high enough that Putin cannot out right silence his opinion

Putin being able to control the war because it's not wartime merely and SMO is helping Ukraine not hurting it

There is so much we do not know. The blunders made must be redressed but I feel that osint guys and defense followers are speaking confidently on subjects where we only have maybe three percent of the data. The doomers are helping nobody and have gone waaaaay beyond legitimate criticism and harsh truth to their own delusional panic stricken takes.

Indeed there is another side that will not admit when it seems serious mistakes are made. It is irritating trying to find the truth thru it all. We know so little and so many make broad assumptions about capacities and capabilities or the lack thereof on both sides. It is disheartening, but understandable.

This kursk "offensive" is mired in misinfo, disinfo, and so many unknowns. It is clearly a sign of things to come. It is a move of desperation but these moves can be quite destructive so Russian leadership needs to close up loose ends So far it reeks to me again of trying to provoke a response from Russia. You can criticize Putin on a couple things but one think Putin never does is react. He always weighs things carefully, sometimes to his detriment, but when it comes to this stuff emotionally or fearfully reacting to these dangerous games our elites are playing is folly of the highest order. I sense there is a method to what Putin is up to.

https://www.facebook.com/K01Archive/posts/pfbid02crf1Di8YAEC13yhM4JwnBYYYoEuPzE5GWv2NKQHhMjGqmKhSW6jz6PJQ5idn4csrl

Current Kursk situation, provided by Kommersant.

It is said that Russian Iskander and UMPB is very active in the Sumy direction.

@ TMA1

Even with a retreating army , such as the UKrs , in the process of being eliminated , along a very long frontlines , there is unavoidable ebb and flow ! We must not confuse this week action by Ukrs side ,with the strong and continuous wave of advances by Russia . It should be seen as ripples on the surface of a pond , once a stone is thrown in . Or dispersion of bits ,once it is hit with a hammer !

https://www.rt.com/russia/602404-counterterrorism-kursk-adjacent-regions/

Counterterror operations launched in Russia’s Kursk and adjacent regions

“In order to ensure the safety of citizens and suppress threats of terrorist acts by enemy sabotage and reconnaissance teams,” Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Aleksandr Bortnikov, who is also the NAC chairman, has made the decision to carry out counterterrorism operations in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk Regions, the statement said.

Forces conducting counterterrorism efforts have the right to stop and search, enter properties, and limit the movement of people during the operation, according to a 2006 law. Communications systems are under strict control, and the sale of arms and alcohol is prohibited during the ongoing efforts, among other things.

caveat emptor wrote:Always count LDNR, as they are Russians and fight on the same side.

Sure

As for equipment, i could buy your reasoning only if it comes to F-16 and then only for high level engagements and not to shoot down missiles and drones behind the frontlines and launch stand off missiles. For other equipment, Ukrainians are perfectly capable of using it. I think that they already proved long time ago they are not idiots.

The best air defence specialists are in their 40s. As it takes a long amount of time to learn and become experienced in the trade

Soviet and NATO air defense systems are two entirely different families. The basic principles will be the same but everything else will be different. The procedures for targeting, searching, maintenance of the radar, missile characteristics, reloading, vehicle maintenance, etc... and all of this training and documentation will be in English, or German, which Ukrainian air defense specialists will seldom know.
The same goes for the HIMARS and ATACMS and other similar systems. These are also complicated machines. I don't see it as feasible that NATO was secretly training Ukrainians in the operation of these systems since day 1 of the SVO and then when the decision came to use them against Russia, it had this ready Ukrainian personnel to man this equipment with.

As for NATO casualties,  i think that their number is greatly exaggerated in this forum and so are their casualties. According to Russian MoD few thousands Polish alone died, but it is clear that is not the truth. For your pleasure, let's put that number at 10k, which is extremely generous.

Like I said it's anyone's guess. All I will say is that they are present at every level, whether it's as infantry in front-line fighting or operating this sophisticated equipment or as liason officers in the rear or working directly with Ukrainian command directing operations. A target rich environment.

caveat emptor wrote:Apti Alaudinov can say much more than your regular army general, because he is backed and protected by Kadirov. Others that spoke against MoD actions were quickly removed or jailed, Prigozhin was murdered, but with him, everything will go much harder. Also, from listening to his statements before, he comes across as very measured and professional  guy, certainly not like other Chechen commanders.

Apti Aluidinov is not going to act to undermine the MOD and neither would Kadyrov. He has never shown any interest in weighing in on any of this stuff before.

Everything that has happened so far in this war, doesn't really leave much trust in actions of Russian MoD or General Stuff. There was so many scandals, intrigues, failed coup. Half of the MoD is in jail or under investigation. I don't think i have to go further. This is a general knowledge at this point.

And that's your problem. You view them as hopelessly incompetent but if they were then they would be losing the war against NATO, not the other way 'round.
If you want to count everything that has happened so far in this war, then you should first and foremost look at the operations so far, and how many times Russia was content to let the Ukrainians advance and fall into a trap such as at Krynky or the region around Kherson or sitting back to wait for the Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2023.

While the MOD does share some blame in their defense there is only so much you can do when told to conduct the war a specific way, if they had full control then sure but they don't

Arrow wrote:


FP only the West does not want any negotiations anyway. Opening the Kiev direction is unlikely. This operation requires at least 100k troops and equipment, just enough to eventually stand at Koyiv. Russia does not have that many forces and resources available and would still prefer to use them on Donbas or possibly take over those 4 regions that they accepted into the Russian Federation.

I said they should advance towards Kiev, this has the effect of lengthening the front and panicking the Ukrainian leadership, forcing them to divert units. And then we'll see.

Lengthening the front can only work to Russia's advantage because of its manpower and firepower advantage.

I do think Kiev should be taken but it should not be rushed. Such urban battles are immensely costly. For now the focus should be on trying to approach the city from several directions.

Spacing from explosives is also something your taught over and over in basic.

Now you are being a dumbass... what level of spacing protects you from a rocket barrage with cluster munition warheads?

Such a convoy spread would invite a sabotage group to ambush said convoy because they would not be able to see from one truck to the next let alone defend themselves.

Ukraine sending a batallion or two across a very long border? That happens. I don't hold anyone responsible. However, whoever was in command of that convoy, if they are still alive, needs to be held criminally liable for not following basic safety measures. Seriously, attempts at camo, no effort at dispersal? Yeah someone needs to be fired and arrested.

Not sure what level of spacing would protect a convoy of trucks when the weapon being used is guided artillery rockets with cluster bomb munitions as a payload... do you honestly think spacing each truck 200m from the next would save them?

With guided rockets each truck would receive the payload of one rockets worth of cluster munitions... which would be enough I would think.

What is bad is that Ukraine is serious about this war, but I don't think the Kremlin is as serious as it should be.

2,000 orcs a day are dying and you say they are not serious... they don't need to be advancing and killing orcs at the rate they are doing now, but I suspect they will lower the threshold and expand the range of targets that are now acceptable to take out.

Things just got worse for the Ukraine.

They don't have the strength and resources to reach the Dnieper along its entire length. It's not even known when they'll take over Donbass. It could be years.

With desperate attacks like this, the Ukrainian forces wont last years.

This is a reminder that this war is going to be years long. Dont expect anything else.

I disagree. Kievs forces have been weakened, and for the cost of too many border guards, their elite attack force is being mopped up despite their celebrations on line, they can't afford to do this very often.

The money is running out and Biden will be gone soon enough.

But of course if it takes another 3 years then that is what it takes... this is the sort of job you don't leave unfinished because if you do you will have to deal with it again in 5 or 10 years time and it wont be any easier then... in fact it might cost you more.

Talk less and do more. That goes for both you and Russia.

Hilarious, a guy from Finland complaining about a Russian not dealing with a nazi problem his country supports and funds.

You country is repeating the mistake it made in WWII when it joined forces with Nazi Germany... and they are losing again... what are you doing about it, other than moaning here?

The Drama Queens parade is here again

X2 Spot on... either the sky is falling and it is all Putins fault, or they should use nukes...

NATO/USA will never give up on Ukraine.

Tell that to Afghanistan and Vietnam... they are going to take an enormous financial hit, but life will carry on, and those big US companies banking on making billions will have to deal with their losses.

They will keep sending weapons as long as Ukraine has soldiers.

That isn't important any more.

An unlimited supply of weapons is not what the Ukraine needs... that ship has sailed...

So don't give them any justification for doing so. Yes it's increasingly outdated clunky crap like the Leopard 1s or whatever, but it can still prolong the war and still get Russian soldiers killed.

Target practise for drones mostly.

As the Ukraines economy tanks because half the available male population runs to the EU and the other half is ground up on the front line for no good reason, they have so many increasing problems that more weapons simply wont fix.

For the war to last as long as possible and for Russia to bear the sacrifices and material costs of the war for as long as possible and not to allocate money to other sectors of development, etc. Even if they lose, they will want to drag it out.

But hardware and ammo is being replaced faster than it is being used up or lost, the loss of men is a problem but they have found a few different ways of minimising that. Occasionally Kiev will score a win, but ultimately it wont change anything except the determination of those fighting them to keep killing them.

Human beings will naturally feel sorry for an enemy, but when they keep inflicting attacks like this it makes it rather simpler and easier to motivate Russian troops to kill them if they don't try to surrender.

The war also costs Russia a lot. Especially since it is one of the largest conflicts since World War II.

Actually despite the increase in defence spending this conflict has not been expensive... they could pay off their government debt in cash without problems, and cutting off of Russia from the west has led to Russia finding other markets to sell its goods and it is selling rather well. Initial discounts are gradually being removed as new infrastructure is set up to support the transport and logistics of the sales, and Weapons exports are expected to boom over the next few years because of this conflict and the conflict in Syria. Food exports are huge, and energy volumes are down but the prices are up so overall they have not lost anything. In fact now it is not European companies making money on Russian oil exports via shipping and insurance... that is now going to other countries.

I would say this has damaged the west rather more than it has damaged Russia because they are throwing money down a bottomless pit and they are paying more for energy and everything else and their hopes of economically and militarily and politically destroying Russia have backfired... Putin is more popular in Russia than ever, they now appreciate him more than ever before and they now see the west for the evil monster it has always been.

I agree that in conventional military strength Russia will never be able to defeat Ukraine.

Rubbish. Without the support of some of the worlds richest countries and the military might of both HATO and the US of A, the Ukraine would have had a peace settlement at Istanbul a few months after the conflict started. Now they have lost several generations of young men they wont be getting back, and the effort to keep them going is seriously damaging the west.

Russia is still only using a tiny fraction of its military power in this conflict.

Because using more wont make a huge difference. This conflict ends when Kiev runs out of men and that process is working just fine.

NATO/USA will never give up on Ukraine. They will keep sending weapons as long as Ukraine has soldiers.

And that is because Ukrainian soldiers mean nothing to them, they want the lithium and other metals and resources of the country... not to mention that rich black soil everyone keeps bollocking on about. Russia has massively increased its food production without such rich black soils so I would say I is overrated.

But it costs the West more. Materially, and in terms of their influence around the world. It's all crumbling. Russia needs to keep up the effort. And prevent the West so easily walking away from what it has started.

The Global South is watching, and this damage to the west is not just the money they donate to the thieves of kiev, money is getting stolen at both ends, which is why the war is so popular in the west... people are making their fortunes... but the sanctions and BS from the US is destroying the international organisations they control to run the world... countries are dropping western currencies and are seeing western countries are not safe places to have money or assets, BRICS is the real winner, and the west is driving countries to join because it is clearly crazy.

But as long as Russia is fighting the way it is , the west will be able to cobble enough together to make the next 3 years look like the last 3 years.

Maybe you are watching a different conflict... this was an attack by about 1,000 men and hardware they don't have a lot of... they are losing twice that number each day. The 2,000 being killed each day are probably conscripts who barely know how to clean their rifle let alone shoot it, but these 1,000 troops are elite forces that would be trained in sabotage and ambushes and all sorts of other skills your average soldier has not clue about. These are the guys getting chewed up in this little incursion.

If they had any brains they would have packed civilian clothes and when they crossed the line buggered off and changed clothes and go find and woman and forget about this American war.

I guess if Russia is fine with fighting at this level for another 5 years ,

If things remain at this level they wont be fighting another 5 years... Kiev is getting desperate.... they might not even last 5 months.

What you need to understand is that even if it takes 10 years then that is what it takes.

There is no rush, Russia needs to do this right and not be soft or nice to the west.

You can always count on Russia to give the western public , Nafo, the mainstream media and all the retards exactly what they want. Everyone is high on the ukraine war again.

The people of the west are goldfish... 3 second memory. It makes no difference for Russia if the western public notices or not. Propaganda victories are meaningless because the west does not get any say in this anyway and the Russians don't care what the west thinks.

Hollywood can make out that Kiev is winning... well why do they need all this money and weapons if they are winning?

Most of the bean counters in western governments probably see Ukrainians as nazi Russians anyway so they wont want either side to win outright...

But it is a huge part of history happening right now.

The west is destroying itself in this conflict, so it is probably better than it does not end in the next few days.

If anyone needs to be fired in this situation , it's most likely the head of the natl security council and whoever makes these deals with the US.

Everyone in Russian politics knows the US can't be trusted about anything, but if they think they have an agreement then they can at least expect compliance for a while, or pretend compliance... which is probably all they expect from those lying .

China is mad. They were talking with Ukraine about peace recently. They get swindled like this constantly too. Morons

China understands war is destruction and expensive and not good for business except for ghouls. The west are ghouls.

[quote]Russia has 100k dead by now, if not more. Nobody cares about Ukrainians in the West. They're just useful idiots and will be scapegoats when all this is over. ['/quote]

Even if that figure was true it was necessary. You think sending a 3 million man army in there and having Ukrainian soldiers acting like Rambo for the next 3 years hitting rear area troops and supply depots etc etc will result in less deaths?

The main message: Russia must now understand that the Americans are ready to commit any atrocities and crimes through the hands of the Ukrainians, and the way to avoid this is to retreat and surrender.

That is the message, but the Russians can simply ignore that message and continue to destroy the Ukraine as a country.

As Medvedev pointed out, now Russia can start hitting Ukraine territory and bring the war to the Ukrainian people and let them decide how long this war should take.

The first consequence of this attack should be that previous offers of Ukraine withdrawing from Russian Federation territory as a requirement for a ceasefire and peace talks will now require a 300km buffer zone beyond RF territory that the Ukrainian forces will have to withdraw to before a ceasefire and peace talks can begin.

FP only the West does not want any negotiations anyway.

Economics will talk eventually... there are plenty in the west that heard that American politician talk about 12 trillion in value in resources in the Ukraine and about how this conflict is not just about seizing it for the US, but also about denying it to Putin and Xi. And a dumb person would agree, but the smart person would ask why creating an actual enemy... not rival... an actual enemy out of Russia with thousands of trillions in resources, makes any sense at all.

The average guy in the street will never see a cent of that 12 trillion that prick was talking about, this is about the 1% in the US getting slightly richer, and the tax bill is going to be enormous... not just funding the war, but the economic damage of pushing Russia and China and BRICS together and other countries in the global south to them too.

pening the Kiev direction is unlikely. This operation requires at least 100k troops and equipment, just enough to eventually stand at Koyiv.

The went there before with rather less, and a proper siege and proper shelling and real destruction would make things rather different this time.

I said they should advance towards Kiev, this has the effect of lengthening the front and panicking the Ukrainian leadership, forcing them to divert units. And then we'll see.

If the Russians did that I could see the Rada running to Lvov or further...

I do think Kiev should be taken but it should not be rushed. Such urban battles are immensely costly. For now the focus should be on trying to approach the city from several directions.

Just stripping resources and men from the front lines and the borders will effect their ability to advance on the current front line too...

Brigade that killed Russian POWs takes part in the attack in the Kursk region, according to US media,

So it was a suicide squad... the ones that knew they would be handed over for court cases in any peace process wanted to go out in a flame.

Of course plenty will have changed units to evade attention in the hope that Russia thinks all the men responsible are in the Kursk salient and eventually are killed... good way to try to escape justice to send others on a suicide mission and pretend they are all the war criminals.