Russian special military operation in Ukraine #59

Putin will not use any R-33 with a nuclear warhead nor will he attack a NATO base with an Iskander. This is nonsense.

Having witnessed Russian jamming capabilities South Korea has invested heavily in anti-jamming technologies for their missiles.

Their CTM-290 ballistic missiles is now being exported to Poland.

South Korea is extensively marketing the anti jamming capabilities of this missile. Let's see if Poland sends them to Ukraine.

I wonder if the 404 F-16 pilots are trained to converse in Ukrainian or Russian? Probably the former I would guess. Judging from the Soviet's experience during the Korean War it probably won't take too long during the heat of battle, before the communications will switch to French or English, or even Polish or Romanian!    

Most of them will die on their one way mission going through the shredder, but the few that may survive ejection will be nice PR material for the Russian media.

If it was me I would surely defect and get some good Rubles for the F-16, a new ID - and a new lease on life to boot.  

GarryB wrote:

When you sink a ship or 2 they are not easy to replace. So it massively decreases the abilty of the enemy to control that area of sea. When you kill 2000 men, they grab another 2000 hapless souls of the street, and bring them to the next trench line. With an endless stream of weapons and ammo from NATO there is no end in sight here and even though there are signs of weakness, I see few signs of collapse.

For as long as that supply of cannon fodder is happy to be cannon fodder then the problem will remain.

Kiev is solving future problems for Russia by sending troops to Russias shooting range.

When the cannon fodder realises what is happening it is up to them to stop this conflict... or they can march to the front line and die like the guys before them.

They will not run out of cannot fodder anytime soon. 10 million men, even at 10:1 it will cost 1m Russsian lives to kill them all and at 2000 men a day 13 years. Can anyone predict how things may evolve in 13 years? Add maybe 5 million NATO volunteers and then you have a 20 year war. That seems to be the plan we are on. After all Afghanistan went on for 20 years.

Mir wrote:I wonder if the 404 F-16 pilots are trained to converse in Ukrainian or Russian? Probably the former I would guess. Judging from the Soviet's experience during the Korean War it probably won't take too long during the heat of battle, before the communications will switch to French or English, or even Polish or Romanian!

The French and the British do not operate the F-16.
Much more likely would be Polish or US pilots.

mnzr wrote:They will not run out of cannot fodder anytime soon. 10 million men, even at 10:1 it will cost 1m Russsian lives to kill them all and at 2000 men a day 13 years. Can anyone predict how things may evolve in 13 years? Add maybe 5 million NATO volunteers and then you have a 20 year war. That seems to be the plan we are on. After all Afghanistan went on for 20 years.

It does not work like that. After a certain time you reach the tipping point. One particular battle or even the defeat of a group is the drop that broke the camel's back.


Slowly Russia started the military operation with a number of men much lower than the Ukrainian army, and now they are already fielding more people than what 404 currently has.
They will arrive soon at a point in which they cannot hold the line at every place where Russia is going to attack at the same time.

Ukrainian population is also probably at the limit.

Many who before were only hating Russia now are at least as angry with their own government as well.

It is not that they can continue bringing people to kill because they have replacements. Those people are also needed to run the infrastructures, do normal jobs, etc. otherwise they would not be able to maintain logistic for the army as well.

After a certain points the 404 soldiers will not remain anymore to defend the fortifications, or will just use the weapons against their commanders.

F-16s will be stationed at allied airfields to protect them from Russian strikes,” BBC Ukraine reports on how Kiev is drawing NATO countries into the war with Russia.

NATO knows perfectly well that Putin will do nothing. That is why it continues to escalate. They think Putin is a coward.

lancelot wrote:

Mir wrote:I wonder if the 404 F-16 pilots are trained to converse in Ukrainian or Russian? Probably the former I would guess. Judging from the Soviet's experience during the Korean War it probably won't take too long during the heat of battle, before the communications will switch to French or English, or even Polish or Romanian!

The French and the British do not operate the F-16.
Much more likely would be Polish or US pilots.

That is a good point but like the Ukrainians who flew Soviet stuff, they could volunteer to be trained as F-16 pilots. Money is an excellent incentive.

Arrow wrote:Putin will not use any R-33 with a nuclear warhead nor will he attack a NATO base with an Iskander. This is nonsense.

Nato or the US in other words didn't do anything against Iran where when they leveled their air bases in Iraq. Why do you think they would do anything agaibst a country that has 5000 nuks and use one of them to blow up an airbase used by the ukrainian in an actual war ?

Russians will do an exemple with the country hosting those f-16.

Rostov on don sunk? https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nggvg1yggo

Well then it is the BBC taking info from Ukraine. lies upon lies upon bullshit.

Sunk not but at least very badly damaged yes. Title is a lie tho.

S&P downgrades Ukraine's credit rating to "selective default", 08.03.2024.

The rating agency S&P Global Ratings downgraded Ukraine's long- and short-term foreign currency credit rating to SD/SD (selective default) due to Kiev's decision to suspend payments on loans outside the country.

"We have downgraded our long-term and short-term currency ratings for Ukraine to SD/SD. We have also downgraded our rating of the 2026 eurobonds to D [default]," the agency said in its statement.

The rating agency S&P justified its decision by claiming that the Kiev authorities decided to start restructuring part of the loans and suspended payments on the affected bonds pending the restructuring. The payment would have to have been made before August 1, and, although the country still has 10 working days to make it, the agency explained that they do not expect that to happen.

On July 31, Volodymyr Zelensky signed the law on restructuring the Ukrainian state debt, which allows the government to suspend payments on foreign debt until October.

According to the Ukrainian authorities, the country's national debt amounted to 151,000 million dollars at the end of May 2024, having increased by 20% over the year. Ukrainians and local businesses have only lent their government $42.1 billion, a quarter of the total debt. The remaining three-quarters of the debt is owed by non-residents.

Yandex Translate from Spanish.

https://latamnews.lat/20240803/la-sp-rebaja-la-calificacion-crediticia-de-ucrania-a-default-selectivo-1156610099.html

Isn't the Rostov-On-Don still under repair in a dry dock? Would be difficult to "sink" it if that's the case!

Mir wrote:Isn't the Rostov-On-Don still under repair in a dry dock? Would be difficult to "sink" it if that's the case!

Who cares ? they managed to hit it badly.

While Ukrainian channels continue to savor the footage that has appeared of the UAV attack on Russian rear regions, videos have emerged online of the aftermath of the "Geranium" strike on the oil depot in the Vinnytsia Region.

Thanks to the footage that has spread online, the exact location of the strike has been established. At the moment, fuel storage tanks on the territory of the Gnivani special reinforced concrete plant are on fire - this is also confirmed by the FIRMS service, which tracks emerging fire hotspots.

Coordinates: 49.106600, 28.358680

The strike location was also confirmed by local residents. Later, details of the raid emerged. Initially, three strikes hit the object, and after the firefighters arrived, a fourth "Geranium" struck directly into the tank after the alarm was sounded. Despite the use of a fire train, the fire is still being extinguished.

#Vinnytsia #Russia #Ukraine

Mir wrote:Isn't the Rostov-On-Don still under repair in a dry dock? Would be difficult to "sink" it if that's the case!

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They floated it out a few weeks ago.

Arrow wrote:Putin will not use any R-33 with a nuclear warhead nor will he attack a NATO base with an Iskander. This is nonsense.

I'm afraid you are right. Putin is too hesitant and his patience has no limits.

mnztr wrote:

Mir wrote:Isn't the Rostov-On-Don still under repair in a dry dock? Would be difficult to "sink" it if that's the case!

They floated it out a few weeks ago.

The most likely fake image on Telegram shows it damaged in the dry dock - but I'm pretty sure its probably a rehash pic from the fist attempt.

@Arrow and Mein Kampf 2

A nuclear tipped R-33 would not be waisted on a couple of has-been F-16's if that is what you're implying?
However if they station F-16's on NATzo territory for strikes against the Russians it will be raining steel on those bases.

Armchair Warlord
@ArmchairW
The Ukrainians seem to have found a new source of Tochka short-range ballistic missiles, which disappeared from the battlefield in mid-2022 after they exhausted their stockpile.

These are likely Armenian missiles covertly transferred to Ukraine in a show of fealty to the West.

After two years of dealing with far harder targets, Russian air defenses have found the ones that did make it aloft easy pickings.

Edit: Removed a video of a Tochka exploding on launch and some associated commentary from an earlier version of this post, apparently it's from a prewar incident.

Probably not a good idea to be too close to an airbase munitions dump when it is attacked and effectively eliminated. This is Morozovsk.