Russian special military operation in Ukraine #59

Two steps left until peace talks on Ukraine, by Alexey Chesnakov, Head of the Scientific Council of the Centre for Political Conjuncture, for VZGLYAD. 07.24.2024.

Now the bargaining stage begins. Ukraine is trying with all its might to lure Russia to a second "peace summit". Hence the talk of possible territorial concessions, of a readiness to conduct a dialogue. New demonstrative steps that will be positioned as "readiness to compromise" are not excluded, but in practice they will not be such.

In recent weeks, Ukraine has been actively transforming its negotiating positions, which is connected both with the situation on the front line and with the unfavourable political situation, as well as the growing risks of uncertainty regarding further support from the West.

Thus, D. Kuleba in China stated that Kyiv is ready for negotiations with Russia “at a certain stage” if Moscow is ready for “honest” negotiations.

Let me remind you that on September 30, 2022, V. Zelensky signed a decree according to which "it was established that it was impossible to negotiate with President V. Putin." This can be considered the first stage - a demonstrative denial of the possibility of negotiating with Russia. The reasons and chronology of this action are clear.

The second stage was marked by anger. Harsh statements by V. Zelensky, M. Podolyak, A. Yermak and others regarding the future development of the conflict. This stage saw the preparation and implementation of the plan for the so-called counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. One can recall Podolyak's statements that he "will soon speak with journalists from Crimea." Any attempts to initiate a discussion about peace talks were blocked. At the same time, ideas about "killing as many Russians as possible" were voiced in the military and political leadership of Ukraine.

Now the bargaining stage begins. Ukraine is trying with all its might to lure Russia to a second "peace summit". Hence the talk of possible territorial concessions, of a readiness to conduct a dialogue with Russia. In the near future, new demonstrative steps cannot be ruled out, which will be positioned as "readiness to compromise", but in practice they will not be such.

At the same time, the fourth stage – depression – will come very soon. Western military aid has not helped reverse the negative trends for the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front line, only partially slowed them down. Discontent is growing in Ukrainian society regarding the situation in the energy sector, around the arbitrariness with the expansion of mobilization and progressive corruption. Threats of default, risks of non-payments in the social sphere and to public sector employees – all this is permanently hanging over Ukraine. And in the event of Trump's victory in the US elections and a real reduction in the volume of aid, Kyiv's situation may come even closer to fatal.

The final stage is accepting the inevitability of the fact that ending the conflict on Ukraine's terms is simply impossible. This process will be painful. The Ukrainian authorities have done a lot to ensure that society perceives "returning to the 1991 borders", "Ukraine in NATO" and other patterns promoted by Ukrainian propaganda as an inevitable prospect. However, this will have to be done; accepting the inevitable is the main condition for starting peace talks.

https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/7/24/1278990.html

The general noted that there is also a plan for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to reach the 1991 borders.

Ukraine does not have enough fighters

But they got a plan to return to their fake 1991 "borders". 

Northern Military District,

We will be able to respond well if the Russians make a new assault in the south of the Zaporozhye region 

At the same time, he assured that he did not want to achieve goals at any cost or throw his subordinates into “vain attacks.”

The guy is currently the best stand up comedian on the planet.
Even better than Biden.

McGregor: Kuleba Talks Peace with Russia After Trump Calls Zelensky, by Alexey Komolov for Rossiyskaya Gazeta. 07.24.2024.

The reason why Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba suddenly started talking about peace with Russia was a phone call from Donald Trump to Volodymyr Zelensky. This opinion was expressed on social media by former Pentagon adviser Colonel Douglas McGregor.

McGregor said that "after one phone call with Trump" the Ukrainian foreign minister "signals" his readiness to negotiate with Russia.

On July 20, it became known that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump had a telephone conversation with Zelensky . Trump himself considered the conversation "good", and Zelensky called Trump the president of the United States on his social networks after the conversation.

Kuleba is on a three-day visit to China. It was reported that following a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, he stated that "Ukraine wants to participate in dialogue and negotiations with Russia and is preparing for them."

Later, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry made a publication stating that Kiev allegedly does not yet observe any readiness on the part of Moscow for negotiations.

Zelensky also previously stated that he allows negotiations with Russia and advocates for a speedy end to the conflict .

At the same time, according to observers, Kyiv is afraid that if Donald Trump wins the US presidential elections, Washington will try to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, and therefore is trying to "get ahead of events."

Some experts suggest that the Kiev regime is probably already preparing a referendum on negotiations with Moscow .

The Kremlin has repeatedly spoken about its readiness for negotiations, but Kyiv has legislatively prohibited them from being held.

https://rg.ru/2024/07/24/makgregor-kuleba-zagovoril-o-mire-s-rossiej-posle-zvonka-trampa-zelenskomu.html

Bomb release seems fairly low. No AA expected so just above MANPAD height perhaps.

Just a matter of time until all potential targets are hit. Double tap apparently.

Pretty much the perfect weapon for a war of today.

Iskanders massively destroy enemy concentration areas in the rear along the entire front

In recent weeks, the Russian army has been actively attacking enemy rear areas with high-precision weapons.

In Krasny Liman, an OTRK strike destroyed the command post of the 63rd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with operational personnel, as well as UAV control post vehicles, 10 aircraft-type drones, more than 300 FPV drones, an antenna-mast device and 3 jeeps, the Ministry of Defense reports.

Before this, Iskander-M flew to the point of temporary deployment of instructors and mercenaries from Western countries to the village. Dergachi, Kharkov region. As a result of the strike, up to 50 foreign instructors were killed, the military department claims.
- RVvoenkor

lyle6 wrote:Someone has cracked the encryption on NATO comms. Russians are going hog wild on any transmission that's not in the hohol dialect.

Another of the unintended side effects of NATO being forced to put the increasingly latest version of items into Ukraine and exposing them to Russian intel.

Should things get really bad much of the advanced tech advantage that NATO is counting on in the early days will not be there. There will be planning cells in NATO where the officers are climbing up the walls as they knew what might happen and no-one was interested in listening to them.

Looks like the guidance system didn't work properly. Or else it made a break for freedom as all Azoz had were rowing boats.

Looks like a tough night ahead.

ayden@squatsons

3 Tu-95s airborne
3 Tu-22s airborne

advanced tech advantage that NATO is counting on

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (for the period from July 20 to July 26, 2024)

From July 20 to 26 this year, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out 33 group strikes with precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles, as a result of which: enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine for the manufacture of gunpowder, production and repair of armored vehicles and energy infrastructure facilities that provided them were hit. In addition, they were amazed at: UAV assembly workshops, ammunition depots and rocket and artillery weapons, military echelons with equipment and personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as temporary locations of foreign mercenaries.

During the week, units of the North group of forces improved the tactical situation and defeated the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, motorized infantry and assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two marine brigades, three defense brigades and National Guard units. 21 enemy counterattacks were repelled. The losses of the Armed Forces amounted to 1,385 military personnel, five Bradley infantry fighting vehicles manufactured in the United States and 24 vehicles. In addition, two launchers of the Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple launch rocket system, 23 field artillery guns, including five M777 howitzers made by the United States, as well as three field ammunition depots were hit during the week.

Units of the Zapad group of forces, as a result of successful actions, liberated the settlements of Rozovka of the Luhansk People's Republic, Peschanoe Nizhny, Kharkiv region and occupied more advantageous lines and positions. They defeated the formations of six brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as three formations of the air Defense. During the week, nine counterattacks by enemy assault groups were repelled. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 3,640 servicemen, four tanks, including a Leopard made in Germany, 10 armored combat vehicles, of which four M113 armored personnel carriers made in the United States and 68 vehicles. During the counter-battery struggle, 36 field artillery guns were hit during the week, including nine self-propelled artillery installations and 155-mm howitzers of Western production. Eight electronic warfare and counter-battery warfare stations were destroyed, as well as 21 field ammunition depots.

As a result of the active actions of the units of the "Southern" group of troops, the settlement of Ivano-Dariivka of the Donetsk People's Republic was liberated and the situation along the front edge was improved. The manpower and equipment of five mechanized, two airmobile, and four assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated. Six enemy counterattacks were repelled. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 4,640 troops, six tanks, 23 armored combat vehicles, including two M113 armored personnel carriers manufactured by the United States and 44 vehicles. In addition, 64 field artillery guns, of which 37 are Western-made, 12 electronic and counter-battery warfare stations, as well as 13 field ammunition depots were hit during the counter-battery struggle.

The units of the Center group of forces improved their tactical situation during the week. The formations of eight formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two air defense brigades and the assault brigade "Lyut" of the National Police of Ukraine were defeated. They repelled 42 counterattacks by the AFU assault groups. During the week, enemy losses in this area amounted to 2,525 troops, five tanks, including two Abrams made in the United States, 10 armored combat vehicles, 24 vehicles, 30 field artillery guns and nine field ammunition depots.

The units of the Vostok group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the manpower and equipment of two brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two formations of the defense forces, as well as two brigades of the National Guard. As a result of the group's actions, the enemy lost up to 835 military personnel, two tanks, 30 vehicles, 23 field artillery guns, of which 12 howitzers and self-propelled artillery units of 155 mm caliber were produced in NATO countries, as well as six electronic warfare stations.

During the week, units of the Dnepr group of troops defeated formations of the mechanized, infantry, mountain assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade, three defense brigades and a National Guard brigade. The enemy's losses amounted to up to 800 soldiers, a tank, five armored combat vehicles, and 47 vehicles. In addition, during the counter-battery struggle, 18 field artillery guns were hit, including five M777 howitzers manufactured by the United States, six electronic warfare stations and six field ammunition depots.

Two launchers of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system manufactured in the USA, seven combat vehicles of the Grad multiple launch rocket system, two launchers with the AN/MPQ-65 radar station of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system manufactured in the USA, two launchers were destroyed by operational and tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the groups of troops installations of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, as well as mobile radar stations for detecting and tracking aerial targets ST-68 and P-18. During the week, air defense means shot down: a Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force, 10 ATACMS tactical missiles manufactured by the United States, two Tochka-U tactical missiles, nine Hammer guided aerial bombs manufactured by France, 36 HIMARS rockets manufactured by the United States, as well as 623 unmanned aerial vehicles.

During the week, 63 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered on the line of contact, 27 of them in the area of responsibility of the Dnepr group of troops.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 630 aircraft, 278 helicopters, 28464 unmanned aerial vehicles, 556 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16684 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1390 multiple rocket launchers, 12416 field artillery and mortars, 24086 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12521890@egNews

Russian MoD reporting 13,825 Ukrainian casualties over the past 7 days.

Russian Hackers Leak Data About 3,200 Mercenaries Fighting in Ukraine, 07.26.2024.

On July 26, RaHDit, a Russian hacker group (also known as “Evil Russian Hackers”), made the news once again with a massive leak, after having published the data of more than 1,200 Ukrainian drone operators earlier this month.
RaHDit has disclosed information on more than 3,200 foreign mercenaries fighting in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Among them is Evelyn Aschenbrenner, born in 1981, who is a senior soldier and assistant commander in the personnel unit of the 1st Battalion of the International Legion in Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces. Aschenbrenner is an LGBT* person who also uses the “they” pronoun.

Tanner Pierce Reed, born in 1993, a US citizen, is a former Oakland Police Department officer. On July 26, 2023, he was arrested in the state of Indiana for molesting a minor and aiding and abetting juvenile offenses.

The list of mercenaries also includes Kristaps Maurins, born in 1991, a Latvian native. Kristaps competed in the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics, where he came in 21st place in luge. In Latvia, he served as the general secretary of the Latvian Luge Federation.

Pablo Garrido Mancedo, a Spanish citizen, who has a record of partaking in various military conflicts prior to going to Ukraine. In particular, he fought on the side of Kurdish militants in Syria.

Juris Alberts Ulmanis, born in 1959, is an entrepreneur, professor, climber, and polar explorer. Today, he serves in the ranks of the 67th Mechanized Brigade of the International Legion (unit A4123). He has participated in fighting against Russia on the Ukrainian side multiple times and has provided various goods to Ukrainian forces, including financial aid. He wrote a book titled When War Becomes Personal, and is known for his Russophobic rhetoric. He has served in Ukraine's National Guard for five years.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has repeatedly warned foreign citizens against traveling to Ukraine and emphasized that under international humanitarian law, mercenaries are not considered combatants and do not have the right to prisoner of war status.

According to the Ministry, over 13,000 foreign mercenaries have arrived in Ukraine to fight for the Kiev regime since the start of the special operation. During this period, about 6,000 fighters have been eliminated.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240726/russian-hackers-leak-data-about-3200-mercenaries-fighting-in-ukraine-1119514030.html

Ukraine will be thrown under the train for the sake of Israel and black soil, by Kirill Strelnikov for RiaNovosti. 07.26.2024.

Since the beginning of this week, Bankova has been happily cooing and blowing bubbles: according to reports from officials of the Kyiv regime, they have managed to agree with Western creditors on a restructuring of the debt on Eurobonds worth 20 billion dollars, the payment on which (four billion) was due on August 1 of this year.

Against the backdrop of a total lack of money, this threatened Kiev with an official default. Despite the fact that Ukraine has long been effectively bankrupt and can only somehow move due to more and more new tranches from Western donors, an official default could have dealt a strong blow to the reputation of the International Monetary Fund, which represents the interests of creditors, and further lowered the degree of already fading optimism in the collective West.

Beaming with pride, Prime Minister Shmyhal announced that Kyiv would be "forgiven" 37% of its debt and would now be able to save $11.4 billion on servicing it over the next three years and $22.75 billion by 2033. The saved funds, of course, would be used to continue military operations.

Western media immediately hailed this agreement as a sign of powerful, unifying and unwavering support for Ukraine from its allies and rejoiced that it would continue the war in the interests of the West, destroying itself.

However, in the less frenzied and politicized world of international finance, where the main god is His Majesty Profit, this situation was reacted to in exactly the opposite way.

Instead of joining the celebrations and raising Ukraine's credit rating, a member of the "Big Three", the international rating agency Fitch , yesterday downgraded Ukraine's long-term foreign currency issuer default ratings (IDRs) from "CC" to "C". Let us recall that the "CC" rating means "Very high levels of credit risk. Default in one form or another appears probable", while "C" means "Exceptionally high levels of credit risk. Default is imminent or inevitable, or the issuer has suspended operations". At the same time, it was stated that "the Agency (no longer) provides forecasts for ratings of this category" and all this mess "signifies the beginning of a process similar to default", that is, the patient is more dead than alive, and it is time to prepare for the ceremonial burial of the remains.

The fact is that if you carefully read the terms of the preliminary agreement with the main creditors (and it still needs to be approved by two-thirds of the votes of all holders of Ukrainian debt obligations, which is not a fact that will happen), then the long-term credit and financial situation of Ukraine has not only not improved, but has hit rock bottom and is whistling toward the center of the Earth.

In fact, the existing debt securities will be exchanged for others - simply with a more delayed repayment period (up to 12 years), but with each year (attention!) the interest will increase exponentially.

This means a very simple and cynical thing: both the creditors, and the guarantors, and the moderators of the Ukrainian state debt have come to the conclusion that they will never get any real money from a living Ukraine, and have decided to "divide" the corpse of Ukraine when (and if) its remains (including the remaining assets - still considerable) after the collapse of the Kyiv regime will completely come under full Western control, and then it will be possible to present the new owners with the sky-high bills that have "dripped up" and get their hands on a lot of goodies for pennies. According to Western experts, such a step is a "fantastic investment".

The collapse of the credit rating was also influenced by the nosediving situation with the Ukrainian budget. Two days ago, the Verkhovna Rada committee reported that at the moment, Ukrainian government spending is exactly twice as high as revenues and the annual budget deficit is 40 billion dollars, but the situation will be "much worse."

To pay off its debt obligations, Kyiv will have to rapidly print unsecured money, which will lead to a deep devaluation of the Ukrainian currency and a further decline in the standard of living of Ukrainians.

According to the same Fitch forecasts, Ukraine's debt will increase to 92.5% of GDP in 2024, which is why Ukraine's good Western friends have pushed through a sell-off of state assets for next to nothing, including the largest natural resource companies, as well as a sharp increase in taxes. But soon there will be no one to collect taxes from: according to Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Tetyana Berezhnaya, the working population of Ukraine has shrunk from 11.5 million in 2021 to nine million this year, but in reality the figures are even lower.

However, the fatal blow to Ukraine's collapsing budget (and its illegitimate leadership) could come from a completely different direction.

During his surprise visit to the United States, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in addition to reconnoitering the issue of support from whichever party wins the presidential election ("Israel remains a key US ally in the Middle East , no matter who the American people elect as the next president"), once again announced that his goal is "total victory in Gaza" and called for the urgent creation of a "Middle East NATO " called the "Abraham Alliance" aimed against Iran.

Addressing the US Congress, Netanyahu unwittingly parodied Zelensky, screeching about Russia : "When we fight Iran, we fight the most radical and bloodthirsty enemy of the United States. We are not only defending ourselves - we are defending you." We have heard this somewhere before.

But in the case of Israel, there will be no disagreement about who is the US's favorite wife by definition. According to Western analysts, a major conflict is brewing in the Middle East, and if Israel demands money to prepare for a conflict with Iran (and it has already demanded it), everything will be laid on this altar, and Kiev's complaints and pleas will be addressed to the Europeans, who are already halving their aid (for example, the German government recently halved its aid budget for Ukraine for 2025, without explanation).

Western media reacted immediately: Business Insider reported that, according to its sources, the same artillery shells will be sent entirely not to Ukraine, but to Israel, because "the US and European countries will not be able to meet the demand for shells in two wars at the same time," and this "could cost Ukraine victory in the war."

Where is the "unwavering unity of the West" and "support for Ukraine for as long as it takes"?

Apparently, in the same place where all the promises and guarantees of the West, the price of which is a hryvnia per roll, are lowered down time after time by a handle on a string.

https://ria.ru/20240726/ukraina-1962074074.html

More at link

atarigami_UA
@Tatarigami_UA
Russia is Relocating Its Valuable Military Assets Deeper into Its Territory. Frontelligence Insight has conducted research and released a special report for subscribers, detailing how the Russian army has moved further critical assets, including bomber jets and helicopters. 🧵:

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1816561523210191258

Russia has begun using cheap drones made of foam plastic and plywood for reconnaissance and distraction of Ukrainian air defense, GUR spokesman Andrey Chernyak told Reuters.

Such UAVs have begun to appear in the last two to three weeks.

They do not carry explosives, but are sometimes equipped with cameras and a SIM card from a Ukrainian mobile operator to send images.
- ISZ reports