Russian special military operation in Ukraine #59

JohninMK wrote:More at link

atarigami_UA
@Tatarigami_UA
Russia is Relocating Its Valuable Military Assets Deeper into Its Territory. Frontelligence Insight has conducted research and released a special report for subscribers, detailing how the Russian army has moved further critical assets, including bomber jets and helicopters. 🧵:

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1816561523210191258

Truck-launched cruise and ballistic missiles exceeding 500km will solve a lot of issues for Russia in this proxy war now that the INF treaty is (thankfully) dead and buried, it's much harder for NATO to detect half a dozen trucks in the forest than half a dozen fighter/bomber jets taking off from an airfield.

MOSCOW, July 27 – RIA Novosti. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are deploying aircraft at airfields in third countries, in particular Poland, in the expectation that Russia will not bomb them there, fearing an open conflict with NATO, while Ukrainian airfields are used for refueling and replenishing ammunition, a source in the security forces told RIA Novosti.

So the logic is that because the aircraft will be based and operated from Poland that Russia wont escalate by attacking them...

...except by attacking Russian targets in Ukraine and Russia those aircraft have already done the escalation and added a HATO nation to the conflict, so Russia is therefore free to attack targets in Poland if that is where the aircraft take off and land from.

Russia is so lucky the west is so dumb.

17 km left to Pokrovsk

stuff moved here.

Russian forces now crossed the so-called aqueduct and have a foothold in the residential area of Chasov Yar.



source

As I explained in the Su-34 thread I am not interested in censorship, but that does not mean I am not going to move things.

Most of the Su-34 talk is about teh Su-34 and how it is used and the weapons it used.

The crap here about the Su-34 is going to this thread.

There were statements in the media that the Russian Su-35S shot down a Ukrainian MiG-29 at a distance of 213 kilometers.
https://lenta.ru/news/2024/07/29/rossiyskiy-su-35s-sbil-ukrainskiy-mig-29-na-rekordnom-rasstoyanii

Another Abrams is down. Destroyed by a Krasnopol.

DD Geopolitics
@DD_Geopolitics

Slovakia’s oil refiner Slovnaft to halt diesel supplies to Ukraine if government does not resume Russian crude oil transit – PM Robert Fico

Haven't seen BM-21Grad targetting this tight before.

JohninMK wrote:Haven't seen BM-21Grad targetting this tight before.

Shorter distance = tighter group

Drone strike on Kola peninsula from Finland. I can't find discussion of this on previous pages, did I miss it? Did this actually happen?

Or it could be a fake story to test reactions... there will be plenty of nazis in the EU wanting to play such games...

Russia providing the Koreans with real world testing facility?

Russian forces have begun using the North Korean Bulsae-4 anti-tank missile system in Ukraine

This was reported by Ukrainian military telegram channels. The machine was detected by a drone on one of the sections of the front.

The Bulsae-4 is a self-propelled system capable of hitting targets over ten kilometres away. It carries up to eight guided missiles aimed at the top of the tank where the armour is thinnest.

The missiles are also equipped with video cameras.

http://T.me/ukraine_watch

Sort of Ukrainian related.

The Malian authorities are preparing to make an official complaint against Ukraine, after the leadership of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine admitted coordinating terrorist groups conducting military operations and regularly committing terrorist acts against the civilian population of the country.

JohninMK wrote:Russia providing the Koreans with real world testing facility?

Supposed to be a confirmed kill of this system against ukro AS90.



Note the interesting flight pattern of the missile, with mild descent at the terminal stage to hit top armor.

Not the PR we have heard and read to date. More planes than pilots and no usable airfields! That might be a problem going forward!

Ukraine will be able to use no more than 10 F-16 aircraft this year due to a shortage of pilots


At the same time, as the New York Times writes, the number of fighter jets that Western countries will transfer to Kiev this summer is unknown.


@ukr_leaks_eng

As this is not in the US 'Arms producers get rich' plans the US will ship F-16 munitions regardless of whether there are aircraft for them. Objective achieved Anyway, why should the US Army be the only ones to get shot of all their old stuff, the USAF wants a fair crack of the whip.

The US will send Ukraine arms for dozens of F-16 fighter jets, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources.

According to the WSJ, the US has agreed to arm dozens of F-16 fighter jets with US-made missiles and other advanced weapons. As noted, Washington will equip the F-16s with air-to-air missiles.

@ukraine_watch

Belousov called a sharp increase in drone production. IT is now four thousands. A day...

Supposed to be a confirmed kill of this system against ukro AS90.

Why the hell is Ukraine putting an SPG so close to the front that it can be engaged by an ATGM with a 10 km range?

Belisarius wrote:

Supposed to be a confirmed kill of this system against ukro AS90.

Why the hell is Ukraine putting an SPG so close to the front that it can be engaged by an ATGM with a 10 km range?

Necessity?

JohninMK wrote:Not the PR we have heard and read to date. More planes than pilots and no usable airfields! That might be a problem going forward!

They will just use Western pilots. Did you have any doubt this would happen?

The West has found out: Ukraine has two years left, by David Narmania for RiaNovosti. 07.30.2024.

"Everything flows, everything changes, and you can't step into the same river twice," says an ancient maxim. It is not known how well the Kiev regime and its supporters are familiar with it, but their actions confirm it one way or another. Over the two and a half years of the SVO, many of the Ukrainian authorities' theses, voiced in the first months of the conflict, have become memes. Take, for example, the famous "Russia has enough missiles left for two or three strikes." After the fall of 2023, this maxim became so boring for both the military and civilians on both sides of the front that it was never voiced in any other way than ironically. Now it has taken on new colors: it turned out that Ukraine has enough land left before Kyiv for two years of conflict.

At least, this is the conclusion that one of the most famous media apologists of Bankova, German journalist Julian Roepke, came to, which is disappointing for the West.

"I remember how just four months ago people were laughing at the fact that at this rate the Russians would not arrive in Kiev for another 30 years. At the rate they are now advancing east of Pokrovsk , it will take them only two years. Purely theoretically, of course," he wrote on the social network X (formerly Twitter).

The front, unfortunately for the Zelensky regime and its sponsors, is moving inexorably to the West, but such calculations are very difficult to take seriously. The pace of Russian advancement is not constant, and it changes in certain sections of the front several times a day. Therefore, trying to mathematically calculate when our troops will return to Kyiv is a mental workout that has little to do with reality.

The sad math for the Ukrainian Armed Forces does not end there . According to former Pentagon adviser Douglas MacGregor, the Ukrainian army loses two thousand people daily. Of course, this figure may also fluctuate, but such figures should worry Kiev much more. After all, if we follow Repka's example and estimate, then even a 100% implementation of the plan to mobilize half a million people in 2024 will not cover such losses. Moreover, if this pace continues, then in five and a half years there will simply be no one to call up for arms in Ukraine - the last man from the mobilization reserve will die. Obviously, a military defeat according to such dynamics will happen much earlier. Oh yes, in this case, the Russian troops will also not stop near Kiev.

Of course, these estimates are also very approximate and there are no guarantees that the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will remain at this level.

Such indicators as the speed of advance of Russian troops or daily losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces may fluctuate. But the main thing is obvious - the emerging trend will be very difficult to reverse. And here there are figures that can be relied upon more confidently.

According to official data, an average of a thousand volunteers come to Russian military registration and enlistment offices every day. Kiev can only dream of this - videos of Ukrainian TCCs forcibly finding new defenders of Chasov Yar and Toretsk appear on the Internet with the frequency of news releases. One gets the feeling that the last volunteer in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a veteran of the counteroffensive. After all, back then, the Ukrainians could at least be shown an enticing, albeit impossible, future with a "return to the borders of 1991" and "coffee on the Yalta embankment." Now Kyiv can't even explain what Taras should fight for.

And in this connection - since we started talking about rivers - it is understandable why a Ukrainian would be more willing to try his luck in the hope of swimming across the Tisza than in the defence of Ugledar or Vovchansk.

https://ria.ru/20240730/ukraina-1962803491.html