Russian special military operation in Ukraine #59

Russian forces have advanced through eastern Niu-York and are now threatening the Ukrainian units holding the pre 2022 defense line to the east with an encirclement. Which it is claimed includes two of the biggest pre 22 fortifications. There is however doubt as to how many UA are left there holding the fort so to speak.

ayden
@squatsons
The 4km remaining before full encirclement are actually quite deceiving, Yellow arrows are a string of ponds that will not allow for a smooth withdrawal.  

This could very easily turn into a rout.

-_-
@AZ30333
The last pre-2022 part of the frontline is about to move. And its going to be a big (even if just political/pr) move for russia.
To finally have moved all of it (after adveevka earlier this year) will just further prove that Putin can, and will, go all in.
7:05 PM · Jul 30, 2024
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381
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nomadski wrote:
I heard some say that Russia thinks Trump serious about peace . I also heard that Russia may forego any major retaliation against provocations , by the deep state , to entrap Trump in an ongoing war , before he takes office . There is only a matter of a few months before US elections . The F16 are best shot down over Ukraine territory to start with , even if they fly from Poland or Romania . If nothing changes after Trump , then .....

Last time, Trump wouldn't even meet Putin.
He filled his administration with a lot of Neo-Conservative warmongering vermin.
And the whole term was filled with American and GAYTO arms flooding to the Ukraine.
Did he stop McCain and others specifically arming Nazi hohol groups considered terrorist even in the USA?

Trump might not be as rabidly anti-Russian as the Dumborat candidates, but Trump has little power in truth.
And Trump is looking out for Trump, not Russia. As shwn over the whole presidential term.
America will try the good cop, bad cop tactics with Russia.
Russia should say **** them, they can NEVER EVER be trusted.

Even Putin said he is under no illusions with a "Trump presidency".

franco wrote:Common theme of Western politics... those not rabidly anti-Russian / Putin must be pro Russian / Putin when actually it only means they are not haters of. Russia and Putin have no friends in the West.

Basically the Davos/Washington gang called Trump "pro Russian" because he wasn't rabidly pro Nazi like McCain or Shitlary Clinton were.
In their twisted heads, it's a way of saying to voters "he is unelectable".
But also, it's their way of pretending "look what a wonderful democracy we have".

In reality, the US Deep State controls it all. Only moderate aspects of it are controlled by the US office of the "president". The current US "president" was away with the fairies the last 3 or so years. And they still (somewhat) managed to hide his dementia from MSM.

F16 won’t be a game changer

But do expect Ukraine to spend those frames in getting air to air kill for PR

As of now they don’t have air to air kill - they will try to splash a su30 or su35

Just saying

Firebird wrote:

franco wrote:Common theme of Western politics... those not rabidly anti-Russian / Putin must be pro Russian / Putin when actually it only means they are not haters of. Russia and Putin have no friends in the West.

Basically the Davos/Washington gang called Trump "pro Russian" because he wasn't rabidly pro Nazi like McCain or Shitlary Clinton were.
In their twisted heads, it's a way of saying to voters "he is unelectable".
But also, it's their way of pretending "look what a wonderful democracy we have".

In reality, the US Deep State controls it all. Only moderate aspects of it are controlled by the US office of the "president". The current US "president" was away with the fairies the last 3 or so years. And they still (somewhat) managed to hide his dementia from MSM.

Basically, the US Deep State now resumes to Robert Kagan, who will continue with Kamala Harris if she wins on November 5 next .

Arkanghelsk wrote:F16 won’t be a game changer

But do expect Ukraine to spend those frames in getting air to air kill for PR

As of now they don’t have air to air kill - they will try to splash a su30 or su35

Just saying

ayden
@squatsons
Bloomberg reports that F-16 are now in Ukraine.

A better map showing the fortifications and the latest advance north to the lakes.

Arkanghelsk wrote:F16 won’t be a game changer

But do expect Ukraine to spend those frames in getting air to air kill for PR

As of now they don’t have air to air kill - they will try to splash a su30 or su35

Just saying

Not really unless they have relly dumb people at command of the air force. Till now they were quite good and smart...

They will use it to shoot down missiles in the air because they are running low on AD systems. Depending on the version, its radar is more advanced than the soviet ones in the su-27 and mig-29A they operate. They will allow to find missiles better but it will still be very hard.

Friendly kills will also happen because those f-16 have no IFF compatible with soviet systems they operate.

Russia and the US are returning to gentlemen's agreements, by Evgeniy Pozdnyakov for VZGLYAD. 07.31.2024.

Experts Explain the Importance of “Telephone Diplomacy” Between Moscow and Washington.

Russia and the United States have managed to prevent an uncontrollable escalation in relations. At least, this is the conclusion that can be drawn from the Russian Foreign Ministry's commentary on the telephone conversation between Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and his Pentagon counterpart Lloyd Austin. What was the topic of this conversation, what are the features of "telephone diplomacy" between Moscow and Washington, and what gentlemen's agreements does it lead to?

Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, in a conversation with Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin on July 12, sent his colleague a "very serious warning" about the possibility of uncontrolled escalation due to the actions of Kiev and Washington, TASS reports, citing Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.

He noted that all contacts with US representatives currently pursue purely utilitarian goals, and the recent contact between the defense ministers is no exception. The Russian side sent a warning "concerning new provocations from Kyiv, which are unthinkable without direct assistance from Washington."

“This warning was made to avoid further dangerous escalation, fraught with consequences that could prove completely uncontrollable,” Ryabkov explained.

Let us recall that after Belousov became head of the Ministry of Defence, he had two telephone conversations with Austin – on June 25 and July 12 , respectively. In the first case, the initiative was on the Americans: then the ministers exchanged views on the situation around Ukraine and the risks of escalation in connection with the supply of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In the second case, the discussion was about “preventing security threats and reducing the risk of possible escalation.” The New York Times later reported that the topic of the conversation was the preparation of “a covert operation by Ukraine against Russia,” which Moscow believes was approved by the United States.

Belousov allegedly asked Austin if he knew about the plans of Zelensky's office. Sources noted that the Pentagon was not aware of this, and the statement of the head of the Russian Ministry of Defence surprised the US representatives. However, the Americans took it "quite seriously" and called on Ukraine not to carry out the operation if it was supposed to happen.

At the same time, over the past two years, Zelensky's office has taken many actions that have caused concern in the United States. Among them are terrorist attacks on the Crimean Bridge and against Russian war correspondents, indiscriminate strikes on civilian targets, as well as strikes on oil refineries and other energy infrastructure.

Therefore, as experts admit, on July 12, the “telephone diplomacy” between Belousov and Austin may have allowed the worst-case scenario, in which the conflict in Ukraine could have spread far beyond its borders, to be avoided. And this, as Washington has repeatedly stated, is contrary to the interests of the United States.

"The possibilities of 'telephone diplomacy' are quite limited now. The effectiveness of the ministerial dialogue is probably due to the fact that Russia managed to provide the United States with truly convincing evidence of the operation being prepared, which Washington could not ignore. Whether we should expect such conversations in the future is a big question," said American political scientist Dmitry Drobnitsky.

"Telephone diplomacy" can help us in a narrow range of emergency situations in Ukraine, Syria and other regions. However, it cannot replace a dialogue between diplomats. Moreover, we cannot guarantee that this or that politician in the US really reflects the point of view of the entire state system," he believes.

"Let's remember the times of Barack Obama. Then, a dialogue with the head of the Pentagon or the US Secretary of State was a guarantee that Russia received a certain set of views from the entire vertical of power in America, including the president. But already under Donald Trump, a number of officials openly sabotaged his initiatives," the expert recalled.

“Today, power in the States has turned into a fragmented field of conflicting clans.

Joe Biden, frankly speaking, has been removed from power. And even before he refused to participate in the elections, we were not sure that he had the decisive voice in American political processes,” the source added.

According to him, if we consider Russia's contacts with Austin or CIA Director Burns, the former represents the interests of the Obama clan, the latter – the Clintons. "They may soon become open opponents. Therefore, we cannot say with certainty that each of them really reflected the views of the ruling group of American politicians," he said.

"Perhaps Moscow is proceeding from the fact that any contact is better than its complete absence. Through direct dialogue, we at least have the opportunity to obtain some information from a person directly located within the US leadership. But the ultimate effectiveness of such procedures cannot but raise doubts," Drobnitsky emphasizes.

Political scientist Malek Dudakov has a slightly different point of view. "Dialogue between the military of the two great powers is extremely important in such a difficult period. Most likely, our countries are maintaining minimal interaction between intelligence agencies, which also helps control escalation," he said.

"Of course, they do not have much influence on the course of the Ukrainian conflict, but they allow us to avoid some provocations from Zelensky's office. However, it would be a mistake to think that the Americans have complete control over Ukrainian politicians. Some of their plans remain a mystery even for the White House," the source clarifies.

“In the future, it will be the Americans who will resort to the use of ‘telephone diplomacy’ more often.

Their interest in ties with Moscow will grow by the end of this year. The US is facing a large number of challenges against the backdrop of the upcoming presidential elections. The actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are increasingly unsatisfactory for the West. Therefore, we will hear more than once about negotiations not only between Austin and Belousov, but also between other representatives of both countries," Dudakov noted.

In general, “telephone diplomacy” is important for crisis management, explains Stanislav Tkachenko, professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University. “Russia and the United States do not want to destroy each other. But we are engaged in a tough and important dispute about the security architecture in Europe,” he said.

"This range of problems does not imply a direct military conflict. It seems that Moscow and the United States have developed certain rules of the game, which include "telephone diplomacy" and even a kind of gentlemen's agreement, that is, unspoken and undocumented agreements," the interlocutor emphasized.

"In the history of diplomacy, it is believed that the Cold War would have developed in a completely different way if the USSR and the USA had not used the institution of gentlemen's agreements, which are built between specific people who trust each other. Apparently, now gradually, step by step, this practice is returning," he suggested.

"In addition, from the 1960s to the 1980s, it was not only diplomats who regulated our relations. Sometimes, even having all the information, they could not talk about anything openly using official channels. A typical example is the Cuban Missile Crisis, when our intelligence resident Alexander Feklisov played an important role in the negotiations ," he recalled.

“In addition, Russia is skeptical about the ability of Blinken and Sullivan to reach an agreement, and therefore has identified Austin as a more rational person and less susceptible to ideological decisions.

Sergey Lavrov recently said that there is a “second path” in the dialogue with the US – these are political scientists “who know each other and understand the policies of their governments.” That is, connections remain along the so-called non-governmental line,” he elaborated.

"And the absence of a visible role for diplomats in this dialogue indicates that Russia considers the current generation of State Department leaders to be people who do not correspond to the level of their positions. In such a situation, the main thing is that we still have the ability to minimize or smooth out the crisis," Tkachenko concluded.

https://vz.ru/politics/2024/7/31/1280068.html

Ooooops

From: https://voenhronika.ru/ via Translate Web Pages.

Enemy channels write that this night was the most massive Geranium attack since the beginning of 2024. More than 30 "Geraniums" entered the city. The air alert lasted 7 hours, but apart from one short video, there is no confirmation of massive damage yet. It is known that the strike was inflicted in particular on the base of foreign mercenaries in the capital's Boryspil airport.