Russian special military operation in Ukraine #59

It is probably a big enough are for this to apply in some parts but not in others but it is a foretaste of what lies in store for the Ukies if they try and stay too long. A Blitzkrieg like this can feel exhilarating or overwhelming (depending on your side) on the first few days or so but once it settles down and the momentum falters and is lost reality reasserts itself.

Overstretched logistics will inevitably become a problem and lead to total collapse as the supplies of fuel and ammo (food and water less so as they can forage for them) that they brought with them run our, especially ammo with the modern 'spray and hope' firing technique. Then without fuel they can't even drive their vehicles and have to walk out, or surrender, or die.


Kursk Region Update at 9:00

- No significant breakthroughs occurred overnight.
 
- The enemy attempted reconnaissance in force from the border towards Bely, but failed to achieve any breakthroughs.

- Due to logistical challenges, the enemy is abandoning their equipment and proceeding on foot. Their vehicles are running out of fuel, and our UAV operators have control over their supply lines.

- Our aviation is performing excellently, effectively covering areas where the enemy is present.

- Several enemy pickups and multiple rocket launchers were destroyed overnight.

Архангел Спецназа

AMK Mapping
@AMK_Mapping_
Regarding the situation in Martynovka, Kursk Oblast:

The village of Martynovka has seen some of the heaviest fighting in the whole of Kursk Oblast. Tanks have been involved along with dozens of soldiers on each side. The Ukrainians have been desperate to take this settlement under their control in order to expand their bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Reka Loknya river (which runs through Sudzha) and to get behind Sudzha itself.

To understand the situation on the ground and the tactical value of Martynovka, you need to look at the local geography of the region. Sudzha - the main town and primary target of this Ukrainian offensive - is bisected by the Reka Loknya river. Swamps in the centre of the town, plus this river, make it difficult to cross in the town itself. This means that to reach the Russian garrison in the eastern part of Sudzha, the Ukrainians will need to advance from the flanks. This also works well with getting behind the Russians in Sudzha.

The Ukrainians ultimately chose to attack on both flanks but started off with the northern one as it branched off from the main assault to the town of Lgov. The flanking assault initially went well for the Ukrainians. They quickly caught the Russians off guard and managed to cross the river and seizing control over the villages of Ivashprovskii and Pravda, before advancing on their primary target of Martynovka. Martynovka would serve as a staging ground for attacks behind the Russian groupings in eastern Sudzha.

The Russians - after regrouping - likely realised the dire situation in Sudzha, and wanted to repel the Ukrainian assaults at all costs as they waited for reinforcements to arrive. Following a tank battle, Ukrainian forces managed to capture Martynovka within a few hours and established positions in the village. From here until recently, it is unknown what occurred in the area. In my opinion, Ukrainian forces likely attempted to attack Mikhailovka, but were repulsed by the newly regrouped Russians, so instead decided on consolidation of their new positions

Then yesterday, the Russians launched a series of counterattacks on Ukrainian positions in the settlement. Originally, Ukrainian sources reported that the first attack was repelled by Ukrainian forces, but shortly afterwards reports emerged that Russian marines had entered the settlement and were clearing it, from south to north. If I had to guess, the Russians attacked from the east, thinking that it would be easier to cut the village in half, but were repelled by stronger Ukrainian defences. They then decided on attacks from the south and managed to advance into the southern part of the settlement. This is all guesswork with very little information to go off, so it could be entirely wrong.

As for the situation now, considering the fact that the village lies on the face of a hill, it is likely contested, with the Ukrainians holding the northern part, the central part being in the grey zone and the Russians holding the southern part, slowly working their way north. Some sources are already reporting that Russian forces recaptured Martynovka from the Ukrainians, however I will wait a couple more days for more reliable sources to comment on the situation before changing the map.

I know this was a long report for one village, but I thought I owed it to you guys to do an analysis on a small section of the frontline in Kursk considering the scale of this operation.

Latest $125M heading in.

Once again, Russia is humiliated. I am waiting to see Moscow’s response. I would like a firm response by destroying all Ukrainian official buildings. How come the Ukrainian presidential palace is still standing today? If there is no firm response from Russia, Russia will be seen as a weak country in the eyes of the world.

mr_hd wrote:Here is the explanation how Ukraine managed to breach into Kursk region: Kursk region invasion

If true it could be new chapter in warfare globally and significant demonstration of Ukrainian capabilities.

There is no mystery about it and there was certainly no 'drone blitzkrieg' or innovative EW means. You just linked a propaganda article attempting to put a positive spin on things.
In reality it's all rather simpler, they just walked in with a large number of troops. It's not hard as there is no front-line there, no-one keeps all their forces entrenched right on the border. Instead you have border guard patrols and various strong-points backed by drones and air power, and then regular military units held as mobile reserves some way back from the border.

So it's not hard to walk in, you only have to ensure enough firepower to beat back the border guards. But the trouble comes with what you can do next and how much casualties you start to suffer in your attempts to advance once they hem you in. And for these reasons the Ukrainian offensive neither makes any sense to me, nor to anyone else. And is developing now quite predictably.

The total losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction amounted to 1,350 soldiers, 29 tanks, 23 armored personnel carriers, - Russian Defense Ministry.

1 regiment less fot the AFU. Excellent.

caveat emptor wrote:
I've seen even higher numbers quoted by Russian source based on probate records at almost 130k.

You're basing your opinion on complete bullshit. Because this very figure of 130,000 "wills" was taken from a state competition for the purchase of letter forms for family members of servicemen who died in the line of duty. You know what? This includes ALL living family members of military personnel who died in all previous conflicts, including Afghanistan.
Just a visual demonstration of the level of expertise of your opinion.

Arsenic wrote:Once again, Russia is humiliated. I am waiting to see Moscow’s response. I would like a firm response by destroying all Ukrainian official buildings. How come the Ukrainian presidential palace is still standing today? If there is no firm response from Russia, Russia will be seen as a weak country in the eyes of the world.

After all NATO, led by the United States, shamefully fled from sheep herders in sandals - you should significantly reconsider the term "humiliated".

Russia is a country that is tearing up the ass of the entire NATO bloc right now

Lancet takes out Soviet-era Ukronazi T-80 in Kursk  

IIR camera nicely shows the heat bloom from the GT engine and main gun.



source

Dead ukrops troopers in Kinburnskaya kosa:
https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/178679
Destroing ukrops in Kursk region:
https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/178701
Another Abrams gone out:
https://t.me/ZOV_Voevoda/18365
Ukro T-64 gone out:
https://t.me/ZOV_Voevoda/18358
Another ukro N-64 gone to hell:
https://t.me/ZOV_Voevoda/18354
A strike with cluster munitions from the Tornado-S MLRS on a military column of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the vicinity of the village of Kruglenke in the Kursk region:
https://t.me/milinfolive/128106
The defeat by the Lancet of the American LAND-LGR4 launcher with light adjustable APKWS missiles based on a pickup truck used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the border area of the Kursk region:
https://t.me/milinfolive/128090
Ka-52 destroys an aerial target:
https://t.me/ZOV_Voevoda/18315

In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost up to 1,350 personnel, 29 tanks, 23 armored personnel carriers, nine infantry fighting vehicles, 116 armored combat vehicles, 20 vehicles, three self-propelled fire launchers of the Buk M1 anti-aircraft missile system, three launchers and the AN/MPQ-65 radar station of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system", a Grad multiple rocket launcher and 10 field artillery guns.

One thing is clear. Russia is only using reserves against the UKR offensive, and this on the ground and in the air. All other front armies continue to pursue their goals without deduction and restriction.

Example:

Maria Zakharova, aware that no response from the West is forthcoming, is nonetheless presenting the issue to them.

She also emphasizes that a harsh reaction from the Russian military will follow, though it remains unclear whether this refers to the ongoing action or something additional.

Commentary by the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry M.V. Zakharova in connection with the latest terrorist strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian regions
 
The Kiev regime continues its terrorist activity with the sole purpose of intimidating the civilian population of Russia. It understands perfectly well that these barbaric acts make no sense from a military point of view, but continues to work off the loans issued by its masters.

On the night of August 11, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a massive missile attack on Kursk. Tactical Tochka-U missiles were fired at the city. Most of the Ukrainian missiles were hit by air defense systems. However, one of them hit a residential multi-story building. 13 civilians were injured, two are in serious condition.

Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces also carried out a large-scale drone attack on a number of Russian regions, in particular, the Belgorod and Voronezh regions. The city of Shebekino in the Belgorod region was again hit. Five residents were injured. In the DPR, one civilian was killed and 16 people were injured in Ukrainian attacks last night. In total, it is reported that 21 Ukrainian drones were destroyed by air defense systems over four regions of Russia.

It is obvious that these Ukrainian missile attacks and drone attacks on Russian regions are of a clearly terrorist nature.

We strongly condemn these barbaric terrorist acts aimed at destroying civilian infrastructure, killing and intimidating civilians.

We have no doubt that the organizers and perpetrators of these crimes, including their foreign curators, will be held accountable for them. A harsh response from the Russian Armed Forces will not be long in coming.

Once again, we call on international organizations to condemn the terrorist attacks of Ukrainian militants. Although we are sure that the response will be shameful silence from the relevant structures.

A duck shoot

I have been saying for some time that Russia should use low-intensity tactical nuclear weapons. Evaporate the Ukrainian troops and send a message to the West of what they are capable of. But hey, they still show weakness. Be careful, if Kamala Harris wins, the war is going to get very complicated for Russia.

Mikael Valtersson
@MikaelValterss1

COMMENT: HOW MANY LOST IN YESTERDAY HIMARS STRIKE?, AUG 10th 2024

Both sides always want/hope enemy losses are much higher than they actually are. Now some speculate that up to 500 Russians died in the strike. More moderate proukrainians say 120-200 killed.

My BDA say that it might be 120 KIA AND WIA. There was 14 trucks. You normally have a dozen men with packs and equipment on each, if its infantry. That would be around two Russian companies at around 200 men. When I was company commander, I had 35 vehicles for around 225 men, but we were AD, not infantry.

The middle of the convoy had time to depart the vehicles, but at least 3 trucks was totally destroyed with all soldiers still onboard. My BDA is that there was around 50 KIA and 50+ WIA. But 100-120 KIA/WIA is bad enough.

In this modern time of warfare you must spread out your vehicles.

Btw I've heard some say that it was up to a 1000 men on those 14 trucks. It's only possible if RuAF have started using 3 foot halflings as soldiers....

ayden
@squatsons
The battle for the Pokrovsk conglomerate has begun.

KalibratedMaps
@Kalibrated_Maps
Russian forces have made three separate advances towards Hrodivka and have compromised one of the few remaining fortification lines before Pokrovsk.

ArgentinaGuard wrote:I have been saying for some time that Russia should use low-intensity tactical nuclear weapons. Evaporate the Ukrainian troops and send a message to the West of what they are capable of. But hey, they still show weakness. Be careful, if Kamala Harris wins, the war is going to get very complicated for Russia.

The first blow should be delivered to your house right now. I think it would be a fair fulfillment of your wishes.

If this is correct the UA units are running an increasing risk of flank attacks cutting them off.

East_Calling
@East_Calling

4m

Diary of a Paratrooper:

🪂 Kursk region:

The enemy is trying to enter Korenevo during a massive attack by FPV drones.

Rocket artillery in action
The number of enemy forces identified is up to 150 people.
There are fights going on at the moment.

The enemy continues to concentrate equipment in the areas of various production facilities and other fortified structures.

Thus, NATO armored vehicles were spotted on the territory of the Gornalsky Monastery.

In addition, several enemy-equipped points for the placement of equipment and ammunition were identified in the Sudzhansky district.

Keep informed with
https://t.me/EastCalling

IFF fail

Scorpius wrote:

You're basing your opinion on complete bullshit. Because this very figure of 130,000 "wills" was taken from a state competition for the purchase of letter forms for family members of servicemen who died in the line of duty. You know what? This includes ALL living family members of military personnel who died in all previous conflicts, including Afghanistan.
Just a visual demonstration of the level of expertise of your opinion.

For people with basic reading comprehension, my claim was 100k or somewhat more. It clearly says in the quoted part that i've seen estimates that go up to 130k. But sure, 100-110k is very realistic.


Interesting concoction of units and equipment was thrown on Kursk direction. According to Alaudinov 810th marine infantry brigade arrived, which was last seen in Volchansk, Aida, Pyatnashka and ex-Wagner under Ratibor.
A lot of equipment in the columns shown were mostly MTLB, BMP-1, T-62M, Rapira, 25mm marine guns. Seems like 2nd echelon units. Only thing that is missing is that someone donates Ukraine Praga SPAA to get a deja vu of Bosnian war.

But sure, 100-110k is very realistic.

No, it is not, there are 0 signs in Russian society that casualties even come close to that number.

100k losses in 2.5 years of heavy fighting are completely possible and within the realm of possibility, not that we will ever know Moscow will hide the true KIA for decades.

no one with a functional mind should be believing Moscows stated losses, or Ukraines every side under reports that in war, its the norm

Belisarius wrote:

But sure, 100-110k is very realistic.

No, it is not, there are 0 signs in Russian society that casualties even come close to that number.

100k in a country that large with that much of a population would be completely unnoticed

Belisarius wrote:

But sure, 100-110k is very realistic.

No, it is not, there are 0 signs in Russian society that casualties even come close to that number.

It's moronic cope. The methodology of MediaZona working with the BBC can't be fobbed off as rubbish and a whole new number pulled out of the ass which
is over two times larger. How about we double the Ukr losses to 1 million KIA. But that at least is not so unlikely.

BTW, I am sure that MediaZona was rounding up and adding fluff factors, so it's number cannot be considered the minimum.