Russian special military operation in Ukraine #59

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

thegopnik wrote:OK I think there is another reasonable explanation why the border was not protected.
They allowed the Kursk attack to happen just so they can further propagandize the Russian population to get more people involved in the war showing stronger support for the war than they did before. Surely that is the reason why a country that brags about how awesome they are at chess(strategic thinking game) would make such a monumental **** up that a middle schooler wouldn't make after he gets taught the Belgorad lesson.

Ukraine is still advancing in Kursk so zelensky might use it as a bargaining chip for donbass if Trump is president

The border was not protected for one simple reason, it's too big and Russia doesn't have the troops to perfectly defend every single bit.

In Western military command, we know when invading Russia, the problem is not getting inside no that is the super easy part, its tobig of a country there are simply to many access points you will ALWAYS find a weak spot unless Russia puts millions of men near every inch of it.

More the deeper you go inside the worse it gets, the problem was that the russians failed to notice a very large build up of troops to properly prepare for it, they where caught with their pants down because of it

Are we sure they were caught unaware? The longer Zelitadel goes on, the more hilariously stupid it looks.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:More the deeper you go inside the worse it gets, the problem was that the russians failed to notice a very large build up of troops to properly prepare for it, they where caught with their pants down because of it

To not notice this build up with its inevitable logistics tail and whatever EW, signals, or other tell-tale signs involved is impossible. Maybe Russia underestimated the size of the incursion or the exact date but that's about it. And this is the edge of an active warzone. You are always going to be expecting the unexpected, it doesn't work any other way.

Once again I don't see any evidence that anyone was caught with their pants down. This is based on what exactly - the capture by the Ukrainians of several villages? But that's the consequence of an elastic defence. This isn't operation Barbarossa where the Soviet Air Force was destroyed on the ground or some similar disaster.

thegopnik wrote:OK I think there is another reasonable explanation why the border was not protected.
They allowed the Kursk attack to happen just so they can further propagandize the Russian population to get more people involved in the war showing stronger support for the war than they did before. Surely that is the reason why a country that brags about how awesome they are at chess(strategic thinking game) would make such a monumental **** up that a middle schooler wouldn't make after he gets taught the Belgorad lesson.

Ukraine is still advancing in Kursk so zelensky might use it as a bargaining chip for donbass if Trump is president

The border is protected. That's what protection looks like. Patrols and with reserves behind them ready to block the enemy anywhere they try and go. All supported by the air force and a bunch of drones guiding missile strikes.

Ukrainian propaganda channels published a video a couple of days ago showing who they claim to be FSB border guards surrendering to the enemy



At the time I dismissed it as the standard Ukrainian Hollywood and psyops timed to co-incide with their incursion

However a couple hours ago they've also published a further video showing ostensibly the same FSB personnel + a few others in Ukrainian captivity. There are many comments floating around hoping that they can swap them for Azov battalion prisoners.



Now I don't know whether this video is genuine or not. What sets off my suspicion is the second half of the video where an apparent soldier is interrogated who claims to be a conscript.
This is bullshit straight out. Firstly the FSB border guards don't have conscripts, they're a purely professional force. Secondly, he's older and more hirsute than any conscript I've ever seen anywhere. Any commander would have ordered him to cut his hair before it got to even half of the length we see. Only contract-servicemen get away with growing it out.

However, that doesn't automatically mean that he's an actor, he could along with everyone else just as well be a genuine POW, and is only stating that which he is stating under duress.

So I'm on the fence about the veracity of this episode, but let's assume the worst for the moment, that it's true. I don't know the circumstances under which these servicemen were captured, but they appeared to have been within the first 24-36 hours of the enemy's incursion. And if so then I can't see how this is evidence of anything other than poor performance, poor leadership, low morale and/or a lack of training. What precise scenario would force them to commit to such a mass-surrender, as one big group? Now of course they are lightly armed troops and the enemy's local superiority would have been overwhelming, but the same was surely true of the Russian Peacekeepers in S. Ossetia who were attacked by massively superior Georgian forces - yet who managed to resist until they were relieved 3 days later.
Was it the case that these soldiers were cut-off, or ran out of ammunition? Possibly, but why would they surrender in that manner even then? Instead of dispersing and trying to break out or hide individually or in small groups?
Furthermore, why would border guards even end up in said situation in the first place? These are highly trained troops, who in my understanding, would in the face of superior enemy forces attempt a fighting withdrawal, at least until they can unite with regular army units. That's to say that they will attempt to delay the enemy but their task is not to hold some village to the last man. So why were there such a large number of them in this one spot?
And I would also dismiss any notion of them being surprised while holding a BBQ somewhere. They are border guards, it's their job to be vigilant, regardless of whatever order is or isn't passed down from command and as I've discussed prior I'm sure that there was warning of Ukrainian activities prior to the incursion which they would have been aware of.

Unfortunately in this case, their actions would have only affirmed the prejudices of the NATO enemy, that Russian soldiers will be ready to retreat or surrender in droves, and such a perception cannot be tolerated at present time because it increases the confidence of the enemy and therefore the threat of the war expanding.
And the performance of these men would have been found lacking. Certainly, there can be no exchanging them for the sort of motivated war-criminals that make up the Azov Battalion. In fact I don't know who would make a good swap for them. Frankly, they can wait until the end of the war, upon which time the actions of their commanders should be investigated.

Well, you will always have cowards and or shit leadership everywhere.

But I agree, forget about these guys.  Make an announcement saying they failed at their job and that while they wait, they can maybe think about doing other job than being a border guard

thegopnik wrote:OK I think there is another reasonable explanation why the border was not protected.
They allowed the Kursk attack to happen just so they can further propagandize the Russian population to get more people involved in the war showing stronger support for the war than they did before. Surely that is the reason why a country that brags about how awesome they are at chess(strategic thinking game) would make such a monumental **** up that a middle schooler wouldn't make after he gets taught the Belgorad lesson.

Ukraine is still advancing in Kursk so zelensky might use it as a bargaining chip for donbass if Trump is president

They aren't advancing anymore. Instead they are trying to dig in, with possible info of Russia already dislodging them from various locations. All while Russia is pounding the Ukraine side of the border.

And what exactly would Trump do? All this will do is further embolden Russia to go further. Also possibly look into fixing their shitty border guards.

caveat emptor wrote:These guys were cut off on the first day in the region of Oleshnya, on the border.
I am perplexed on Chechens. Some units are well trained and disciplined, but there is a video of these guys maybe a week before
this attack shooting in the air and acting out of control in nearby Sudzha.

There is a Turkish word that describes them well, we are also using it in Serbia and it is Bashibozuk.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bashi-bazouk

Try to look for a video of Sudzha event and everything will be much  more clear to you.
As for conscripts, there was a video of two of them caught on the first day and more in the later days.

I can see a total of 2 Chechen POWs in this vid. Clearly they don't have any problems with training or leadership or whatever.

PhSt wrote:Zaporozyhe Nuclear Plant has come under attack by NATO!!

NUCLEAR WAR IS HERE!!!



https://t.me/Slavyangrad/105771

Question is what is Russia going to do about it?

So far all of Russia's political goals have failed, all of its attempts at negotiations have failed, all of its conditions have been rejected, and all it can do is wait around for the Ukraine and NATO to escalate things, and this has happened 10 times already. No lessons are being learned. And Russia itself is never the one escalating or launching surprise assassinations, surprise attacks or anything else.

Now is the time to take the initiative and advance on Kiev. Then we'll see how the Ukraine and NATO deal with that.

I believe I said before that Russia should have shut down this plant and dismantle what they could. Because Ukraine has been attacking it since Russia captured it.

Didn't I read somewhere that Zaprozhiye NPP has been offline for months?