Russian special military operation in Ukraine #59

SeigSoloyvov wrote:It's also humorous how Putin declared this as an "anti-terrorist" operation to clear kursk.

The man is literally doing everything he can not to declare war

This is the legalistic trope he frequently goes to, but many people in Russia are pretty tired of it, this time. I think that he losses more trust with the people with these acrobatics.

caveat emptor wrote:I largely agree with you, when it comes to Crimea, with addition that consecutive Russian governments didn't do enough by ignoring Crimea referendum and not having an ear for their grievances.

And it's over this issue, and over a similar one in the Donbass, that these Ukrainians you know are lionizing the 'existential war for independence' that you mentioned.
There would be no such war if they weren't such chumps.

You misunderstood. I said that I don't see Minsk as important, since it was created to give Kiev some breathing space. Merkel is on record with that, as well. These people blamed "separs" for non-implementation of cease fire. I don't see Minsk as any sort of solution. Intermission, as i said.

I understood what you meant, I just postulated that they were probably fine with a rematch because to rationalize not implementing anything in the Minsk agreement with bullshit accusations of the separs provoking conflicts on the frontline fed to them by Maidan media - requires some pretty heavy intricate gymnastics and I rather suspect what's behind it is an attitude of smug adolescent non-compliance with everything Russian and Putin while offering dumb excuses, or rather smiling coyly on while their government did exactly that.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

They have some valid, more or less, in their eyes grievances against Russians. And it was low hanging fruit for the West. A penalty kick. Make good returns with very little investment.

They can keep their grievances. Please stop oppressing our people on their own land though. Thanks.

You're not comparing apples to apples. Your closeness, be it ethnic, religious or cultural, makes it more tragic

I'm over it. You should get over it too.

I wish for peace and for every Ukrainian soldier apart from war-criminal scum to lay down their weapons and return to a loving home, alive and whole. Which would be possible if not for their own leadership which is leading them off a cliff even long after continuing the war has stopped making any sense.
And after that, I frankly don't want anything to do with the Ukraine and I suppose they would want nothing to do with me either. So we have a common interest don't we.

flamming_python wrote:
I did however figure that NATO would go all in and try to destroy Russia, and that their ideological fantasticism and arrogance would prevent any settlement. They would much sooner sacrifice the Ukraine to the last man than allow Putin the satisfaction of a favorable outcome by negotiations. When the war broke out I figured it was only a matter of time until NATO boots would be on the ground too, and that the Russian people might have to sacrifice a lot more than some border villages in the Kursk region to defeat them. So far that hasn't happened, but of course there's still time.

In this situation Russia should and must use nukes. The alternative is that Russia will (again) lose millions of its people in a total war against the West.

caveat emptor wrote:

I don't agree NATO will get involved more with regular manpower than it already is, but Ukrainians will be exploited to the last, as they are seen as battering ram against Russia.
I forgot to add my basic view of whole situation: This is Russia's war to lose. Ukraine can't win this war without huge "help" from Russia's side.

Never count out the enemy of Russia as long as Putin is in charge. Even if Russia (still) has overwhelming military superiority over Ukraine, with Putin everything is possible. No wonder the Russian military hates him.

caveat emptor wrote:This is the legalistic trope he frequently goes to, but many people in Russia  are pretty tired of it, this time. I think that he losses more trust with the people with these acrobatics.

No it's a move that makes sense. He's basically calling Ukrainian forces terrorists.
Which lays the groundwork for changing the approach to the war. Whether Putin will or not though is another question.

flamming_python wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:This is the legalistic trope he frequently goes to, but many people in Russia  are pretty tired of it, this time. I think that he losses more trust with the people with these acrobatics.

No it's a move that makes sense. He's basically calling Ukrainian forces terrorists.
Which lays the groundwork for changing the approach to the war. Whether Putin will or not though is another question.

This is some cope man, they are not terrorists, they are the opposing force in a war conducting a legit military action. This doesn't make them terrorists,

He doesn't NEED the groundwork to change anything, the man could literally declare war tomorrow and here is what the MOD would say "FUCKING FINALLLY"

I am honestly amazed you tried to argue thus.

He merely doesn't want to declare war and loose his ability to micromanage it, that is why he called it an anti terror operation because if he called it what it really was, he would have been forced by russian law to declare a state of war

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:This is the legalistic trope he frequently goes to, but many people in Russia  are pretty tired of it, this time. I think that he losses more trust with the people with these acrobatics.

No it's a move that makes sense. He's basically calling Ukrainian forces terrorists.
Which lays the groundwork for changing the approach to the war. Whether Putin will or not though is another question.

This is some cope man, they are not terrorists, they are the opposing force in a war conducting a legit military action. This doesn't make them terrorists,

He doesn't NEED the groundwork to change anything, the man could literally declare war tomorrow and here is what the MOD would say "FUCKING FINALLLY"

I am honestly amazed you tried to argue thus.

He merely doesn't want to declare war and loose his ability to micromanage it, that is why he called it an anti terror operation because if he called it what it really was, he would have been forced by russian law to declare a state of war

Have to agree on this.

This is not terrorism but war. Russian military is on Ukrainian soil and I won't call that terrorism. Why should Ukrainian military being on Russian soil be called terrorism?

Why Putin still refuses to call this a war, I don't know.

flamming_python wrote:

No it's a move that makes sense. He's basically calling Ukrainian forces terrorists.
Which lays the groundwork for changing the approach to the war. Whether Putin will or not though is another question.

I don't agree with you regarding this. From the feedback i got, this time he likely went a step too far with this shit. It is in Russian territory and people are much less forgiving.
At least that is my impression from people in Russia i talk with.

@Karl

Because long as he doesn't he retains a lot of power when calling the shots of the war, but when War is declared he loses a lot as the military can then mass mobilize etc, they cannot do this without war being declared at least not without Putins permission.

Also the russian constitution prevents mobilized troops from being used across borders if war isn't declared.

he is basically in simple terms trying to win by telling his guys to make do with the bare min while also telling them they cannot hit certain targets without his permission,

this is why energy stations are only hit once and a blue moon and such, he isn't letting his forces pummel the civilian infrastructure used to support the war effort which is one of the main things you need to do constantly during wartime to reduce your foes ability.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:This is some cope man, they are not terrorists, they are the opposing force in a war conducting a legit military action. This doesn't make them terrorists,

He doesn't NEED the groundwork to change anything, the man could literally declare war tomorrow and here is what the MOD would say "FUCKING FINALLLY"

I am honestly amazed you tried to argue thus.

He merely doesn't want to declare war and loose his ability to micromanage it, that is why he called it an anti terror operation because if he called it what it really was, he would have been forced by russian law to declare a state of war

Oh I agree. But I also don't care.
If calling them terrorists is what it takes to justify gathering reserves and marching on Kiev, then Godspeed!

caveat emptor wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:It's also humorous how Putin declared this as an "anti-terrorist" operation to clear kursk.

The man is literally doing everything he can not to declare war

This is the legalistic trope he frequently goes to, but many people in Russia  are pretty tired of it, this time. I think that he losses more trust with the people with these acrobatics.

Oh I know, I just love how cheerleaders here act like the Duma and guys like Mevdev aren't getting pissed off with how Putin is handling the war, despite the fact they are, the MOD is annoyed, most of the politicians are, a lot of the higher ups like Mevdev are.

Everyones patience is being had frankly nor can I blame them.

but hey cheerleaders act like everyone is happy in Russia.

flamming_python wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:This is some cope man, they are not terrorists, they are the opposing force in a war conducting a legit military action. This doesn't make them terrorists,

He doesn't NEED the groundwork to change anything, the man could literally declare war tomorrow and here is what the MOD would say "FUCKING FINALLLY"

I am honestly amazed you tried to argue thus.

He merely doesn't want to declare war and loose his ability to micromanage it, that is why he called it an anti terror operation because if he called it what it really was, he would have been forced by russian law to declare a state of war

Oh I agree. But I also don't care.
If calling them terrorists is what it takes to justify gathering reserves and marching on Kiev, then Godspeed!

I highly doubt Russia has that much reserves in order to get near Kiev they would need around 150k troops while also keeping enough forces within their boarder to protect themselves, They would need to do a general mobilization which Putin isn't allowing.

I do agree they need to send a large force towards Keiv just to tie down a huge amount of Ukie forces and force a defense there, but they need to get those forces first.

IMO Russia should just go war eco, take the small hit to the eco it would from doing this (because whenever you shift from civilian eco to wartime evo your GDP does suffer), mobilize mass troops and just end the war in a year, better to take a short term pain then a long term drain

SeigSoloyvov wrote:I highly doubt Russia has that much reserves in order to get near Kiev they would need around 150k troops while also keeping enough forces within their boarder to protect themselves, They would need to do a general mobilization which Putin isn't allowing.

I do agree they need to send a large force towards Keiv just to tie down a huge amount of Ukie forces and force a defense there, but they need to get those forces first.

IMO Russia should just go war eco, take the small hit to the eco it would from doing this (because whenever you shift from civilian eco to wartime evo your GDP does suffer), mobilize mass troops and just end the war in a year, better to take a short term pain then a long term drain

150k is probably more than what Russia has in the Donbass yet it's advancing fine there

Unless the Ukraine is playing a sophisticated game of double bluff, then the forces we see in the Kursk region and those reinforcing them are what the Ukraine has left, those not defending in the Donbass and Kherson at any rate. They've gone all in. For what purpose we don't know, but it does look like a last throw of the die.
And it's for that reason that once these Ukrainian brigades are thrown back, depleted and disorganized, should Russia go in, while the Ukrainians have not had the time to reconstitute those forces and organize them into defense.

It's not necessary to take Kiev itself as yet, but certainly to threaten it is both doable and necessary as a first step. Once it is threatened, then reserves can be brought in from Russia and those fighting in the Donbass, engineering, assault units and so on, as Kiev would then become the key target on which the fortunes of all other Ukrainian defenses are predicated.

I can agree with that but I doubt Russia has the spare forces needed, to amass that many troops would take time and Ukraine would likely have time to refill those bridges before Russia could get these units operational.

The only way to get these forces fast enough would be to remove them from others areas but that would weaken russia in those areas also.

I'm not wanking myself off too hard but I predicted this a year or so ago

Invitation to suicide missions if they fly over Ukria. But I bet they will pull the tactic of shooting off missiles from Polish or Romanian airspace.

Mighty, invincible NATzO and its wunderwaffen.

Interesting development.

https://x.com/distant_earth83/status/1823083240799760545

The actions of the Russian Armed Forces group in the Kursk region with the security agencies and local authorities will be coordinated by the President's aide, Colonel General Dyumin.

Yes, it seems that it is time for the most important "heads" to take over the management of the situation on the ground. This is another slap to Gerasimov. Basically, those who follow the situation will know very well who Dyumin is.

kvs wrote:Invitation to suicide missions if they fly over Ukria.   But I bet they will pull the tactic of shooting off missiles from Polish or Romanian airspace. 

Please do. Whatever it takes to force the Ru MoD to unshackle the Russian military so NATO vassals can get a taste of what real war looks like as they've made themselves far too comfortable as transit routes, storage, training grounds and soon enough, launch pads of "Ukrainian" weapons against Russia.

flamming_python wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:I largely agree with you, when it comes to Crimea, with addition that consecutive Russian governments didn't do enough by ignoring Crimea referendum and not having an ear for their grievances.

And it's over this issue, and over a similar one in the Donbass, that these Ukrainians you know are lionizing the 'existential war for independence' that you mentioned.
There would be no such war if they weren't such chumps.

You misunderstood. I said that I don't see Minsk as important, since it was created to give Kiev some breathing space. Merkel is on record with that, as well. These people blamed "separs" for non-implementation of cease fire. I don't see Minsk as any sort of solution. Intermission, as i said.

I understood what you meant, I just postulated that they were probably fine with a rematch because to rationalize not implementing anything in the Minsk agreement with bullshit accusations of the separs provoking conflicts on the frontline fed to them by Maidan media - requires some pretty heavy intricate gymnastics and I rather suspect what's behind it is an attitude of smug adolescent non-compliance with everything Russian and Putin while offering dumb excuses, or rather smiling coyly on while their government did exactly that.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

They have some valid, more or less, in their eyes grievances against Russians. And it was low hanging fruit for the West. A penalty kick. Make good returns with very little investment.

They can keep their grievances. Please stop oppressing our people on their own land though. Thanks.

You're not comparing apples to apples. Your closeness, be it ethnic, religious or cultural, makes it more tragic

I'm over it. You should get over it too.

I wish for peace and for every Ukrainian soldier apart from war-criminal scum to lay down their weapons and return to a loving home, alive and whole. Which would be possible if not for their own leadership which is leading them off a cliff even long after continuing the war has stopped making any sense.
And after that, I frankly don't want anything to do with the Ukraine and I suppose they would want nothing to do with me either. So we have a common interest don't we.

The whole point in the early part of the war was to spare the wholesale slaughter of everyday Ukranians. Now the way it is going , it's almost like the opposite. It looks like Putin is opting for wholesale slaughter to reduce escalation and instability.

He could regime change Kiev and save lives. Why not try regime change at this point? Just slaughter the entire standing government and see who replaces it

higurashihougi wrote:I do not question Garry's policy of freedom of speech, but I do beg members of this forum to understand that the Maidan regime is different from the Ukrainian people.

And as my freedom of speech is also protected here, allow me to say that any calling for genocide against Ukrainian, Amercian, or what ever nation, are completely disgusting and deserved to be condemned as crime against humanity.

People should seriously ask yourself that you hate the current Maidan regime because they are Nazi or because they are Ukrainian ?

In history a lot of Ukrainian heroes sided with USSR and Russia to fight against invaders. Are you going to ignore their contribution ? They sacrifice their lives for the common brotherhood country so that our generation treat their nation like shit ? Is that how we live as humans ?

I can see that many members of our forum come from Western countries, but they are very sensible humans who synpathize with Russia regardless of their government's stance. And a lot of Western people and Ukrainian people are sensible humans, too. Should they carry the crime of the Nazi Maidan regime ?

I find the wholesale slaughter of Ukranians quite distressing. Which is why Russia should target the Kiev regime

caveat emptor wrote:Interesting development.

https://x.com/distant_earth83/status/1823083240799760545

The actions of the Russian Armed Forces group in the Kursk region with the security agencies and local authorities will be coordinated by the President's aide, Colonel General Dyumin.

Yes, it seems that it is time for the most important "heads" to take over the management of the situation on the ground. This is another slap to Gerasimov. Basically, those who follow the situation will know very well who Dyumin is.

Could you fill me in? Who is this man? Is this a good development or a bad one?

ucmvulcan wrote:

Could you fill me in? Who is this man? Is this a good development or a bad one?

Aleksey Dyumin is ex-governor of Tula oblast. He worked for Federal protection services, GRU and was in charge of whole Crimea operation in 2014. I think that he is a very legit contender for  Putin's successor in the future. One from the younger generation, he is around 50.

caveat emptor wrote:Aleksey Dyumin is ex-governor of Tula oblast. He worked for Federal protection services, GRU and was in charge of whole Crimea operation in 2014. I think that he is a very legit contender for  Putin's successor in the future. One from the younger generation, he is around 50.

He's a nobody

And the worst kind of nobody. Somebody that will always be a nobody no matter to what position he's promoted, as he doesn't seem to have any distinguishing characteristics about them. Just another suit among thousands.

Being a professional spook and working in every possible security structure and generally doing what you're ordered to by your superiors doesn't in of itself make you a good candidate for presidential successor. Putin yes, earlier worked in the KGB but don't forget that in the 90s he made the acquaintance of a lot of powerful people in the business world and worked directly under Sobchak in the St. Petersburg administration. He helped people get a step up and they helped him step up too and get noticed. He was basically responsible for his own success.
I think the talk around this guy is a bunch of nothing. He's just a competent middle manager and enforcer, and Putin's using him in that role.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:

I don't agree NATO will get involved more with regular manpower than it already is, but Ukrainians will be exploited to the last, as they are seen as battering ram against Russia.
I forgot to add my basic view of whole situation: This is Russia's war to lose. Ukraine can't win this war without huge "help" from Russia's side.

Never count out the enemy of Russia as long as Putin is in charge. Even if Russia (still) has overwhelming military superiority over Ukraine, with Putin everything is possible. No wonder the Russian military hates him.

evidence?

Backman wrote:The whole point in the early part of the war was to spare the wholesale slaughter of everyday Ukranians. Now the way it is going , it's almost like the opposite. It looks like Putin is opting for wholesale slaughter to reduce escalation and instability.

He could regime change Kiev and save lives. Why not try regime change at this point? Just slaughter the entire standing government and see who replaces it

Putin's not opting for anything. It's not him bundling people's relatives into the backs of vans and sending them with barely any training to fight an army they're hopelessly outmatched by. Nor is he sending his men on suicide incursions into enemy territory.

I do believe he is being overly conservative by this point, and hopefully that will now change and we can start to see the beggining of the end of this war. But it's also possible that this won't happen for one reason or another and then the only recourse is patience and continuing with the strategy of attrition that has served Russia well so far. There's nothing anyone can do for the Ukrainians who are sick of the war and want it to end but are powerless.

Slaughtering the entire Ukrainian government comes with the risk that they will be replaced by people more competent.
But if it's timed correctly, like when Russia is at the gates of Kiev, then yes tactics such as those can open doors for people to seize power who would be prepared to cut a deal with Russia.