Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62

starting to look much less modern now.

Looks like something from IKEA.

All looking at a grim picture

Naked Zelensky playing Piano.

Isn't that Annalena "360 degree turn" pretending to get a clue?

Judging by her face they show her the newest poll numbers of her party.

Russian units usually suffered many casualties from mines.

Fixed it.

One of the problems we in the West have is that over the past few centuries it is those who have had control over the seas and their communications and trade that have been able to most efficiently extract the World's wealth, us. Culminating after WW2, then collapse of SU, it was the US evolving into the Hegemon or Empire, believing itself to be astride the World in total dominance. 

This had led to the current situation where US Leaders, especially the Senate, believe what they say or want goes. Such that when Harris or Trump stood up with a plan they believed that they had a God given right for it to be so. This leads to all their vassals joining in praising and enhancing the ideas, whilst trying not to be left holding the bag among themselves when the music stops.

But, due to the inevitable inefficiencies in a bureaucracy the size of the US's, activities and actions took place that incurred unintended consequences, particularly over the past 10 years. Like Russia gaining significant strength from increasing self sufficiency and military operations all the while forcing it closer to China in a defensive alliance. Whilst using the US$ as a weapon ignoring the risk of loss of reserve currency status generated by destruction of trust.

So it could be a terrible surprise for Trump, when he meets his 'best mate' Putin, to be presented with some Nov/Dec 2021 Security Agreements (that he won't have seen as the other guy was in charge) the agreement to which would have eliminated the need for the SMO. The rest of the detailed settling of issues will flow from them.

Trump would do well to acknowledge that Putin is no longer the man he met and Russia the country it was. Putin and his teams have guided Russia to the point where it has arguably the most powerful diplomatic and battle ready forces on the planet. 

Trump is facing his own 'Cuba' type crisis, the US facing across the table, for the first time since then, a country well capable of saying Nyet.

Hole wrote:

starting to look much less modern now.

Looks like something from IKEA.

I think not as that would look new.

Just look at the 'table' it could have been an old barn door and the roof old Soviet concrete.

Everything up to Dnepr, Odessa, entire Black Sea coastline and Danube access are bare minimum victory condition

Anything less than that is straight up defeat

PapaDragon wrote:
Everything up to Dnepr, Odessa, entire Black Sea coastline and Danube access are bare minimum victory condition

Anything less than that is straight up defeat

I am for a three state solution. Russia gets Sumy, Kharkov, the Donbass, Kherson, Zaprozhiye, and Crimea. Russia also gets Odessa. As it happens, most ethnic Russians before the war lived in these areas in Ukraine. A neutral state, lets call it Malorussia or Kievan Rus, that is friendly to Moscow gets built up all the way to the border with Galicia. Galicia? It is a no man's land and Russia uses IDF type tactics to keep them from ever being rebuilt. The Nazis are depopulated. The Ukrainian people get to have their own country, and all ethnic Russians are protected.

Apparently Ukraine has longer range MLRS systems than himars and tornado-s
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1855313194597630462

https://www.facebook.com/K01Archive/videos/1726831784837029

Video clip of Ukrainian UAV being shot down by Russians at the outskirts of Moskva.

Russia claimed that 35 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed that day.

Probably Zelensky attempted to make the last stunt before Biden's term officially end. However short range Russian AAs have been deployed in Moskva, hence it is much more difficult for Zelensky to harass the city.

@Garry: some netizen raised questions that whether Russia should apply the AA gun shells that use the computer programmed fuse like German Gepard to counter UAVs.

thegopnik wrote:Apparently Ukraine has longer range MLRS systems than himars and tornado-s
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1855313194597630462

Yeah cause they have facilities to build all of this so quickly, right?

The thing is slightly more complicated and rooted in Germany's constitution

Either way it is good they are driving the blade deeper and deeper and twisting the blade to cause maximum damage... the tiny thing they are ignoring is that the blade is in their own stomach and not in Russias chest...

They wanted to hurt Russia and are instead destroying themselves... continue by all means...

Sending Taurus won't change anything anyway. Besides, even the entire potential of Western cruise missiles wouldn't be able to hypothetically significantly damage Russian industry and economy. Especially since many of these missiles wouldn't reach the target.

I understand you mean to say that Taurus wont save Kiev or change anything on the battlefield because Russian Air Defences can stop most Taurus attacks, but sending Taurus missiles will make Russia change tactics and escalate dramatically and make HATO a party to the war which is a massive escalation that is going to really make things worse for the West.... which is clearly what Kiev wants... they are running out of bodies and want some HATO bodies on the front line instead.

The brake up of the coalition should safe the FDP so that they can keep enough votes to get into the next parliament after the upcoming vote.
But currently they are under the 5% hurdle so it propably came to late. Without the FDP the division of the seats will change and parties like
AfD or BSW will likely get more deputies. This will make the formation of a new coalition more difficult.

The stupid policies and decisions made by stupid German politicians are leading to parties like VW and BMW to relocate to US territory... and I can't see Germans being very good in the service industry as help desk operators...

Putin was talking about referendums in other areas. Perhaps he hopes if talks can be had, he can get more of ukraine without fighting.

He doesn't need more territory to fix, but if the populations are anti Kiev by now offering them their own neutral state could be a good option in terms of making the rest a weak and non-threatening neighbour.

Putin doesn't require more land... if that was the goal then that is the way they would have fought this conflict... by taking land...

Putin knows it is about the people and not the land, the two minsk agreements and the istanbul agreement which Russia signed let Kiev have all the regions back except Crimea. It was only referendums in the four regions after the istanbul agreement collapsed that led them to ask to join the RF and be accepted by the RF as Russian territory that things changed. If other regions decide to join the RF Russia is not obliged to accept them, but I am sure they would take seriously any request.

for me for this to count as a very good russian victory, they must seize odessa, Kharkiv, Sumy, Myko, Cheriniv and Poltava. They won't get a round two for these.

They never expected to get the Crimea back... all of this is gravy.

If they can't agree on anything the fighting will continue and when the Ukrainian military collapses they can hold referendums and let the people decide what sort of future they want.

The US is sick of funding a corrupt failed state.... if you can call HATO a state... the US is also sick of funding a corrupt failed state called Kiev and the EU is incapable of meeting its own needs let alone the corrupt failed Kiev state on its own.

Trump might do something stupid like pump more money and weapons and ammo into Kiev and then try to negotiate saying if you don't give us a bone we will double what we have done (a bluff of course), or he might just say this is none of Americas business and just cut and leave and let the EU sort it out because the US has to solve the middle east and China taiwan situations as a much more important priority.

Putin is not desperate for an out and knows taking a little more pain but doing it right is the right thing to do.

Exactly. Any agreement without cutting Ukraine off from the sea is a defeat for Russia. Agreements will be signed. Putin believes in agreements and papers and in a year NATO will stand in Odessa.

The front line is unlikely to collapse that far fast enough, so what you want is no agreement and a continuation of the conflict.

It all depends on what Trump does and how cold it gets this winter and if Zelensky does something stupid.

if you let these territories go to NATO then you have partly failed

If HATO tries to seduce any of the neutral states that will be grounds for Russian forces to attack and eliminate those bad influences...

So many people here, particularly caveat and seig getting things so wrong.

A natural result of the power of western propaganda... Putin is the new hitler and he wants living space and resources in the west because his country lacks resources and energy... Putin invades countries all the time and topples regimes he doesn't like so he and his cronies can continue to steal from those countries their energy and other resources... replace Putin with the US and it is totally correct.

Oh I know and the loss of these areas would be what i warned about over a year ago, take to long and your window will close.

No. It is the opposite. Russian forces are advancing and Kievs forces are being pushed back... the longer this goes on the more territory the Russian forces will occupy and their goals are to recover RF territory and then to add a buffer zone to protect RF territory from Kiev attack. If the people in these buffer zones want to have a referendum then of course they have that right but their options wont include joining the EU or HATO, they will include being neutral or subservient to Kiev, or to join the RF if they wish. The RF might accept offers to join the RF or might reject them.

fact is Putin has negotiated after the war started a few times, what you are doing is ignoring context and using a blanket remark.

Putin has never offered to give away Russian territory... now four new regions are now Russian territory any new agreement will require Ukraine forces to remove themselves from those four regions and of course any remaining in Kursk too.

Part of the demilitarisation and denazification will likely involve Russia handing to Kiev a list of names of people to be handed over for trial, and almost certainly a referendum and new elections in Ukraine so they can talk to leaders who have the mandate of the people to negotiate for them.

Zelensky has no mandate and failed the mandate that got him elected where he promised to talk and solve the situation peacefully.

Apparently Ukraine has longer range MLRS systems than himars and tornado-s

It is Smerch rockets packaged to look like HIMARS... work it out for yourself... a HIMARS based rocket would be 227mm calibre like HIMARS and M270 MLRS rockets. This rocket is a 300mm rocket like Smerch...

@Garry: some netizen raised questions that whether Russia should apply the AA gun shells that use the computer programmed fuse like German Gepard to counter UAVs.

Well the main problem is that you need to mass produce them in enormous numbers and have the AA guns located everywhere a UAV might appear with the right ammo loaded and ready to go. Quite often you will be sitting there for days or weeks or months and nothing... then one night at 3am you hear a buzz and for about 30 seconds a drone flys over. Now you have to ask... is it yours or theirs?

Air burst ammo is the best ammo for dealing with drones but having guns located at the known targets the UAVs will be targeting is another matter.

Over time as airburst shells become mass produced and deployed then the job will get easier... even a BMP can carry air burst 30mm cannon shells and BTRs could be fitted with 23mm cannons with airburst shells too... laser range finding and optical target tracking gives precise distance and range information... a quick calculation for lead and fire the round and track the round and the target till they get very very close and send a command for your shell to detonate and that should do the job every time.

Using timed fuses makes them horribly expensive and even if they work perfectly if the target turns or speeds up or slows down between the shot being fired and the interception then you are likely to miss. A round that is command detonated would be more effective and much much cheaper and simpler... all the expensive stuff would be reused over and over and the disposable stuff that is destroyed with every use... ie the shell, can be much cheaper and therefore mass produced in enormous numbers and also used on all sorts of targets. An airburst round is useful for all sorts of things... detonating rounds over enemy troops or trenches or above a helicopter hovering behind a building or tree leads to fragments showering down on the troops or helicopter from above. Front concealment or cover rendered useless.

The next drama queens are back on stage, ha!
Russia continues to wage a conflict in which it is Russia that controls the escalation, not letting the fighting go beyond the main band of destruction. No control of territories is the goal - because this is not a war for territories. This is a war aimed at destroying the military threat from Ukraine and destroying their Nazi regime. Slow progress or standing still is not important: continue to grind the ukrovermacht until any Ukrainian who agrees to fight against the Russians at the front is destroyed. After that, take those territories for yourself that they want to join Russia. Leave the rest under the control of a friendly or neutral government.
You know, to limit the zone of active hostilities in order to minimize destruction and civilian casualties is not some kind of super-complicated plan. But the local drama queens still can't grasp it - after almost three years of armed conflict.

thegopnik wrote:Apparently Ukraine has longer range MLRS systems than himars and tornado-s
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1855313194597630462

That Ukrainian system uses the Smerch vehicle chassis they had left. That picture is totally bogus since that looks like a Chinese MLRS.

Ukraine had access to that chassis because back then they still had good relations with Belarus. That is how they developed the Stugna and other systems. Well not anymore.

Ukraine can still make the missiles in homeopathic amounts, probably, but they will have to figure out where to get a different vehicle to put them on.

lancelot wrote:that looks like a Chinese MLRS.

Because it is a Chinese MLRS. It's known as the AR-1A in the export market.

Mir wrote:

lancelot wrote:that looks like a Chinese MLRS.

Because it is a Chinese MLRS. It's known as the AR-1A in the export market.

you mean the Ukrainians are lying? Say it ain't so. I guess the Tagtik story that Russia is on the brink of civil war is bullcrap too.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/animals/civil-war-nears-in-russia/vi-AA1tPtdu?ocid=BingNewsVerp&cvid=dfb28555ae11494ac9f4c3fa744b4ad0&ei=10#details

Of course its bull crap, just like every other crap "news" story the west has said about this war since 2014

We are just discussing how these Ukrainian sycophants cannot even be bothered to use the picture of the actual system and have to use a picture of a Chinese MLRS.

Vilkha is basically a Smerch launcher with extended range GPS guided 300mm rounds. Nothing more and nothing less. Prone to Russian GPS jamming just like the US GMLRS rounds.

The vehicles used in Vilkha were imported from Belarus. The Ukrainians claim to be making their own replacement vehicle at KrAZ but it is nowhere to be found.

The claim in that stupid picture of the Chinese MLRS they used that it uses a YaMZ engine should tell you everything you need to know since those engines are manufactured in Russia.

They have an extremely limited amount of these Vilkha launchers and they cannot manufacture the vehicle used as the platform for it. Russia has been hitting these kinds of launchers regularly, so their number will continue to be depleted faster than replacement level which is probably zero.

I can't see any clear shot of the AR1A anywhere, but the second video shows a Smerch!?

The long arm of the Law.

The Supreme Court of the DPR sentenced eight Ukrainian mortar men to up to 17 years in prison for causing damage totaling more than 26 million rubles with their shelling in Mariupol, the prosecutor's office reported.
- FRWL

Another 200,000 Ukrainians left the country over the summer due to the threat of power outages - Ukrainian media.

The National Bank of Ukraine warns of a labor shortage: almost 200 thousand people left the country in the third quarter. The outflow of population is expected to increase, which will negatively affect the labor market.

According to the UN, by mid-October the number of Ukrainian migrants reached almost 7 million.
- FRWL

https://www.facebook.com/K01Archive/posts/pfbid0Lab6JMXJ9Q55o9qubZLimHofJEY5wQTx4Rnte2bf65N5hcRCcG9jcnDztqJf9aMzl

An intact Bradley IFV that Russia captured from Ukraine, now is serving under Russia.

Russian soldiers said that it has a spacious troop chamber, and relatively good armour for its class.

In general, Bradley receive relatively positive evaluation from Russian users, similar to Sherman in WW2.

The UK MOD Russian loss numbers reported by the BBC are very interesting. I think these are the real losses by the Ukr side. It fits with
the 1 million war graves estimate and indicates that most of the losses per day reported by the Russian MOD are KIA, i.e. 1500+/- out of
2000-2500 per day.

Russian MoD reporting 2180 Ukrainian casualties over the past 24 hours including Kursk;

During the day, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to more than 300 servicemen, a tank, an infantry fighting vehicle, two armored personnel carriers, eight armored combat vehicles, as well as three artillery pieces, a mortar and seven cars were destroyed. Five servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surrendered.

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12536835@egNews