The Situation in the Ukraine. #4

Any new data or anything of evidentiary value?

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:Any new data or anything of evidentiary value?

under the table negosiations I asume...

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:Any new data or anything of evidentiary value?

I have some evidence that something is being prepared under the table for Putin to take action. I don't want to say. We will see.

Kiev mentioned that the military operation will continue even if the referendum is postponed.
That means that the pro-Russians will not lay down their weapons.
That means nothing has changed on the ground.
That means Putin's declaration was just to throw the ball in the west's court while creating the perception that he is de-escalating the situation.

This whole Eastern Ukraine thing is gonna drag on for a long time and will eventually resemble the transdniestria situation: a thorn in the ass of NATO.

Thanks, Arpakola, Hannibal, Armenian.

Forces of kievan imposter's government surrounded the city of Mariupol in Donetsk People's Republic. The man is saying that trucks for transportation of arrested people were also prepared.The day before in Mariupol - illegal pro-kievan militants fired on civilians and news correspondents from UK after killing 5 civilians and arresting many more. The bleeding man was knocked out.

I heard there was a poll where only 70% of people in the ukraine that identified themsewlves as ethnically ukrainian  supported the maidan putchists. Is this accurate?


Can we have definitive info on central ukraine? We know so far about east and west. Does shit sector have massive support in the central part or are they barely keeping hold of it? Have there been any antimaidan rebellions there?

KomissarBojanchev wrote:I heard there was a poll where only 70% of people in the ukraine that identified themsewlves as ethnically ukrainian  supported the maidan putchists. Is this accurate?


Can we have definitive info on central ukraine? We know so far about east and west. Does shit sector have massive support in the central part or are they barely keeping hold of it? Have there been any antimaidan rebellions there?

Ι guess in the Central things will be very fluid next months .. as public opinion that is.
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http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=503487

Lukashenko tells CSTO informal summit they cannot be detached observers of Ukrainian events

MOSCOW. May 8 (Interfax) - The events happening in Ukraine, including Odesa, "do not allow us to remain uninvolved," Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told his counterparts from Russia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan at a Kremlin meeting on Thursday.

"The Ukrainian events do not allow us to sit idle. The Odesa events evoke some bad comparisons. We remember Khatyn, several hundreds of Belarusian villages burned down by the Nazis," Lukashenko said.

"We cannot be detached observers because our people are there, they are pleading for help and demanding a reaction to such incidents," the Belarusian president said.

He said he "was concerned about the totally inadequate reaction of our, so to say, Western partners."

"This is just amazing: what is not allowed to happen in one situation is permitted and encouraged in another," he stressed.

Detained civilian from Donbass is bleeding after meeting with member of ucranian parliament Oleg Lyashko .. Tortured with needles ?
he has been captured initialy (left photo)
After the Oleg Lyasko interogation .. he is bleeding out of narrow hole injuries..



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before



after

Kiev Maidanuts

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Crimea-Ukraine border...

The town hall of Mariupol is under attack by the kievan forces sent by junta to subdue this town in Novorossia

Viktor wrote:So overall how that changes picture:

1. Avoiding civil war

2. US is excluded and in case their nazi puppets do not act according to Russian-EU deal, US can bear the brunt of the responsibility (would be funny if struck by sanctions)

3. Russia-EU developes trust

4. no sanctions for Russia, bussines as usual

5. EU would not let Ukraine become NATO member because they know that would mean war with Russia

6. Another failed attempt by USA regime to separate Russia with the EU where all World saw how deadly and idiotic their politics is

7. EU does not want Ukraine and they said so, so Ukraine in the mid-run certainly goes to Russia

8. Ukraine economy with colapse and social unrest will happen and that is something that is unavoidable unless west plans to throw away 700+ bin $ by 2020 - and that wont happen

9. Russia can channel those unrest to its advantage paying much more attention to Ukraine this time

10. US looses in the long term Ukraine and NATO because this could mark the first time EU ever produced any independant decision leading ultimately one step further towards EU defense

forces with which Russia does not have problem

11. Russia regaining initiative

i agree with your previous explanation and your analysis on the current situation.

current pols indicate anti-eu party's may reach above 30% in the upcomming elections, so... the Pro-eu partys in parlaiment either stop waging an agressive foreign policy or these anti-EU party's keep growing and cripple decisionmaking in the parlaiment or if they make up ultimatly the majority will smash U.S its hold in EU policy's.
these anti EU party's view current actions of the U.S and EU against Russia as unreasonable and that the E.U should have never meddled with Ukraine in the first place. and they all want to get rid of the E.U foreign policy and more autonomy for EU states and NOT have things decided by unelected people dictating foreign policy in Brussels.

and as you decribed with point 10 and i agree with, Putin is not an idiot or a coward. he does not make such statements lightly. i suspect the pullback of troops and asking the postphonement might be the result of an under-the-table deal with Germany (that basically is EU's beating heart). whatever what was discussed was very important and serious in the benefit of Russia's strategy/interrests for Putin to do this.

what elections ??

A couple of issues with this presidential elections bullshit.

1)3m pro Russians have been lost, as the Crimea is now part of Russia.
2)Perhaps the same will soon happen/independence is declared in Lugansk, Donetsk and any others who go thro with the process.
3)Then you have other areas that are anti-Ukrainian Fascist BUT have an affinity with other places.

I wonder how electable the Chocolate King is. How pro/anti Russia is he in practice. And how discredited/supported are the vermin of the Nationalists and other Ukr extremists. Can an election ever be even remotely credible before Russian forces have entered the country?

Obviously Putin wants to consider the whole Ukraine, inc security aspects in the West. And how far Kiev/Central areas could be seduced.

The Americans obviously want Fascists and NATO bases running the show. So rightly, they are excluded.

So this all rests on whether he can work with the EU. Otherwise, he might as well bomb the fuck out of Lvov right now.

Clearly the junta will get up to allsorts then hope to scurry away by a private jet, to hide back under their rocks in exile or whatever.

Evidently the junta had no interest in peace. So the independence referendums look likely to continue for May 11.
I wonder, does Putin decide to protect them on May 12, if indepdence is chosen? After all, the Kremlin suggested referenda, to strengthen Russia's case for invlvement.

http://lifenews.ru/news/132795

seps now have one of those new spanking BTR's ??

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arpakola wrote:what elections ??

It is interesting to see on reaction of town citizens. They don't meet Ukrainian army, police and nazis as liberators or as "their" army, but as enemy aggressor. Ukrainian army become an aggressor in eyes of their own citizens in their own country. Ukrainian army officers will have to think about all this and where they are and where all this is going. If army will keep obeying orders from nazi regime in Kiev, than they could expect a real armed resistance from citizens and guerilla war against them in towns, forests, everywhere. They could not last long in hostile territory, where all locals are against them, specially without money and supplies. How long could Kiev pay this war with money from IMF?

medo wrote:

arpakola wrote:what elections ??

It is interesting to see on reaction of town citizens. They don't meet Ukrainian army, police and nazis as liberators or as "their" army, but as enemy aggressor. Ukrainian army become an aggressor in eyes of their own citizens in their own country. Ukrainian army officers will have to think about all this and where they are and where all this is going. If army will keep obeying orders from nazi regime in Kiev, than they could expect a real armed resistance from citizens and guerilla war against them in towns, forests, everywhere. They could not last long in hostile territory, where all locals are against them, specially without money and supplies. How long could Kiev pay this war with money from IMF?

thats a good question

arpakola wrote:

medo wrote:

arpakola wrote:what elections ??

It is interesting to see on reaction of town citizens. They don't meet Ukrainian army, police and nazis as liberators or as "their" army, but as enemy aggressor. Ukrainian army become an aggressor in eyes of their own citizens in their own country. Ukrainian army officers will have to think about all this and where they are and where all this is going. If army will keep obeying orders from nazi regime in Kiev, than they could expect a real armed resistance from citizens and guerilla war against them in towns, forests, everywhere. They could not last long in hostile territory, where all locals are against them, specially without money and supplies. How long could Kiev pay this war with money from IMF?

thats a good question

It doesn't matter to John Kerry, according to him the Ukrainians are nothing more than cannon-fodder to put missiles in Russia's backyard:

Don't really undestant it but looks funy
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they all end up tp UK after all..

sepheronx wrote:@ victor.

Those are all fine and dandy, but even with Georgia going to war with Russia and losing some of its territory in the process, NATO is still wanting to place "Defencive" equipment there. What about Ukraine? Well, Russia was/is being villified by the world for having military near its borders with Ukraine, NATO places more troops and equipment near Russia, Russia now pulling back forces, NATO still expanding forces and blames Russia.

If you truely care about Russia and Ukraine, you will see how Putin is a loser amd coward. Even Lukashenko is saying thry cannot be dislodged from the Ukraine situation.

I Understand your views.. but i don't think is Cowardice the problem.. but PEOPLE SUPPORT is not there.
In Crimea Russia was ready for a world war 3..because he knew he had support but in Ukraine the people participation in rallies Pro Federalization and or Independence have been Abysmally LOW.  I have yet to see a single fucking protest of Pro Russians of the size of what we saw in Kiev.. of 100,000 people more or less.  Yes for sure all of them were paid by US congress,and facilitated transportation and everything. But i do not see why in Donetsk we do not see Huge ..HUGE rallies every day ,if they want to so much to split.  In Odessa just 4,000 Euro Maidan to take wipe all Pro Russian protesters. And they ended burning alive 40 of them..  

So the main problem continues to be the FUCKING LACK OF SUPPORT of people , is ludicruous ,how ukrainians prefer to do nothing ,for their own future.  AND i suspect.. that the main reason for that is because Russia give them a job across the border. and or because they most have food and house to live.. Now take away that food from their tables ,and remove them from their jobs and when they feel hungry and cannot feed their children things will change. And they will protest and do for the first time what they are supposed to do a major revolution.  

So without a massive support in rallies for separation , it is hard to justify a major invasion ,that will have no end ,a war not only with Ukraine but also NATO by proxy.  So for any war to start massive Support is required. Either they end in a risk of fighting civilians too that do not support the separation of eastern Ukraine.

So leaving emotions just temporarily aside , and looking at things from a bigger picture.. you have several options..
1)Invade now and take control of a tiny part of Ukraine ,that is 2 cities.. while at the same time..the invasion not only will start an endless Vietnam war with NATO supplying mercenaries and weapons to the neo nazis. but also will provoke neonazis to start killing more  russians in other cities..(Odessa massacre like) ,where they have been unable to control anything and a lack of participation still exist. If Russia invade for sure they will protect people in 2 cities but what about the other cities ? It will instigate Neo nazis to start a etnic cleansing of Russians in other regions ,forcing Russia to move and invade other cities too but this time in cities the support is much lower ,with many pro Euromaidan civilians targeting their tanks.  The greatest danger for Russia will not be the Ukrainian army.. but the civilians that can put the Russian army in a position ( Euromaidans civilians at the advice of their NATO handlers) that either they fight them or allow their arms to be taken by an angry mob. All this while NATO have a big laugh of the mess Russia in for invading.  That said for Russia to invade they will need to support of Thousands of Police a millions of citizens in every city they enter. other wise they will end fighting unarmed civilians with an Army and getting sanctions worldwide and a negative world image.


2)Pretend that you will not fight and prefer to negotiate with Kiev ,with the condition they protect Russians.. and allow Ukraine to collapse
by itself because of its economy problems. There is a very high possibility ,that the new neonazi government in the rigged elections will NOT make things any better for Ukraine and its economy will collapse. Waiting give an unique opportunity to Russia ,that its army invasion cannot do , and that is to Open the Eyes of the 40 millions of Ukrainians ,that joining the west and joining Nato will NOT turn into gold their streets and by miracle create millions of jobs ,neither that their salaries will be raised to the standard of the EU..  WHen Ukrainians realize
that the electricity bills are 200% higher , that their Pensions cut in half , and the unenmployment is 10x higher than it was under Yakunovych and that even Police and Government employees are not paid in months.. THATS.. when you will see a major revolution and no longer people will have doubts that it was a mistake joining the European Union and or NATO.. and all of them will look at how well Crimeans are doing under Russia and this is when the real Revolution will start. And people will take to the streets ,and patriotism will go to hell ,because hungry people cannot eat their flag.  So this is when Russia can take over Ukraine without firing a single shot. The neonazis who lead the Revolution about 10,000-20,000 will still be paid but they are a minority. Ukraine is a bankrupt nation ,that its economy is maintained alive artificially by NATO and the IMF but that they will not be able to sustain for a couple of years.

If Russia invades now , then yes it will control 2 cities without much trouble.. but that will not end the danger to Russia security because there are many more Cities under control of NATO ,like kharkov , where they can deploy missiles pointing to Russia. There is also odessa where NATO can deploy military naval ports.. etc..  That said ,any Russia invasion will not solve the problem of its security unless they take control over all eastern and southern regions ,which will means to have to fight also millions of civilians that support kiev. it will be a nightmare.  

So the choice is either try to promote peace now and let Ukraine economy collapse ,provoking a mayor revolution or Invade now,protect russians in 2 cities ,while instigating more massacres in others cities against Russians. and lose any possibility to ever have good relations with most of Ukraine as it is now the case with Georgia.  All said.. The problem continue to be the lack of people support. If there was people support ,the pro independence movement will have millions on the streets in the east and in the south ,and not just a few thousands
protesting against Kiev.. IF there was enough support for Independence and union with Russia.. and invasion might not even be needed at all.. because its own army will defect from the Government and support civilians.. just like it happened in Egypt.. Millions civilians took the streets and provoked the army to remove the President from Power.. Russia have some support in eastern and souther ukraine but is not a strong one , many who reject the Kiev coup ,will prefer to support them than to support the split of their nation.. Blind Patriotism and Lazyness and Cowardice and the main problems in Ukraine citizens right now. Remove the food from their tables in their homes and you will see how they will wake up and see ,that Ukraine no longer have a future as long NATO and neonazis controls its government and that fair elections will never happen and thats when the vast majority of Ukrainians will form a rebelion and not only the east and south will see unrest but all of ukraine.