The Situation in the Ukraine. #4

arpakola wrote:

Ukrainian mass media ..

>>News on the left, date 2nd Jun, 16:20: Ukrainian jets begin to bomb terrorists in the center of Lugansk (video)

>>News on the right, date 2nd Jun, 17:15: Ukrainian aviation did not shoot at Lugansk city administration building, but destroyed two terrorist blockposts.

what more  can I say ?

The Ukrainian army bombards its own radar and kills his men in Lugansk

The Ukrainian Aviation has returned to attack the city of Lugansk, but this time bombing their own radar communication system, an action that killed 10 soldiers, according to preliminary information.

The attack, which took place on Monday around 19:30 GMT, targeted a radar used to detect aircraft in the territory near the village of Alexandrovka military unit, reports the channel  LifeNews . Prior to bombardment , recruits laid down their arms and left the territory of the radar, but officers remained at the facility. As reported by the Russian channel,  due to a misunderstanding between the Ukrainian military aviators believed that the radar had been occupied by militias,  as a result of which fired on their own troops

According to preliminary data, the radar at least 10 people who died in the attack were. Before the bombing, the aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine repeatedly overflew the city center, so the neighbors feared that the target of the attack were their homes.  's not the first time the Ukrainian forces attacking their own members. In late May, for example, helicopters Ukrainian National Guard  fired  on members of the Army in the village of Volnovaja located in the Donetsk region.

Complete Text: http://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/view/130030-ejercito-ucrania-bombardear-radar-militares-lugansk?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

I am afraid I have to come back to this..

magnumcromagnon wrote:
...The real question is this friendly fire incident a mistake or was it another purging of soldiers who refused to take up illegal orders from the coup govt?

arpakola wrote:Conversations of ukranian mercenaries via radio... they talk over payments, say that Kolomoisky pays about 1000-800($?) per every killed separatist/ and wounded too (they deliver them to Kolomoisky "collectors" and change them for money)...etc

listen.
in russian, rare - ukranian.

https://vk.com/wall253217221_245

Vann7 wrote:

arpakola wrote:Conversations of ukranian mercenaries via radio... they talk over payments, say that Kolomoisky pays about 1000-800($?) per every killed separatist/ and wounded too (they deliver them to Kolomoisky "collectors" and change them for money)...etc

listen.
in russian, rare - ukranian.

https://vk.com/wall253217221_245

Someone needs to kill that bastard.. a shot in the head..

So clear enough there have been three impacts now.

The TIMING of these explosions might have been EXACTLY when a fighter yet was firing missiles to another location, so it would APPEAR as if the jet fired into the city. It would be stupid to 'push that button' at any random moment. When it is pushed when a fighter jet attacks somewhere else, it looks as if the jet fired them.  

“The Ukrainian army has retreated. Semyonovka remains in our hands,” Ponomarev added. “No one has entered the city. They are flailing around in the city outskirts,” the mayor went on to say. wrote:

At first instance it looks like one big explosion, indicating this might be caused by an RPG

Asf wrote:

At first instance it looks like one big explosion, indicating this might be caused by an RPG

There is no such a big RPG

Vice-minister Karasin was on May 6 in Doha and met the Qatari leadership, with shocking results! According to messages from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs,the Qatar emir declared that he "appreciates the convincing and consistent regional policy of the Russian Federation" which was quite unexpected from this country,which I'd simply dismiss as an ally of the USA, the political branch of Exxon Mobil in the Middle East, and as being 100% in opposition to the Russian Federation, particularly it's policies in in Syria.

But business interests triumph, and American dreams to fill in the whole world with cheap gas are for Qatar and its elite the death sentence. Without ultrahigh gas prices, Qatar not only loses hope for regional greatness, it becomes a corpse. Culminating with: "at the same time, the emphasis was placed on acceleration of coordination within Foruma Stran-Exporterov Gaza (GECF)", whose next summit (surprise! ) will take place in Qatar.

Stran-Exporterov Gaza is the organization which includes such countries as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia plus other exporters, which the Kremlin has been trying to get off the ground for a very long time as a gas analog of OPEC. It appears that the hour of triumph for potential gas cartel is now. For the first time, the three main exporters of gas: Russia, Qatar, and Iran, have very similar interests and can quite work together to unite and "to take by the balls" both the LNG market and the market of pipe gas.

Such a gas cartel, even in the truncated format of the Russian Federation, Qatar, and Iran, will control at least 55% of world gas reserves and have serious clout over the energy markets of EU and Asia. Certainly, such project will have many problems, it will meet counteraction, nobody gives guarantees that everything will turn out, but it is important to see that Moscow actively looks for opportunities to get additional strategic benefits in fight against the USA.
"
This is why Russia is being discrete
I hope, now it is clear what the Kremlin is concerning itself with while it tries to win in Ukraine and why these issues are important. Returning to the issue of Ukraine itself, implementation of all important foreign policy projects won't help to carry out denazification of Kiev and to make certain that the Russian armies or Novorossiya's insurgent army would be received with open arms, at least in the central regions. Current problems mobilizing Novorossiya's army in Lugansk and Donetsk, are minor compared to those to be expected in mobilizing with the rest of Novorossiya. However, the Russian Federation will soon field, Colonel Famine, and special force, Giperok ("Hyperinflation"), which will sharply change balance of forces.

The Ukrainian economy is finished.
Considering the failure of spring sowing of essential grains, destroyed crops of vegetables (due to freezing), lack of credits, problems with gas, a doubling in prices of fuels and lubricants, one can safely declare that the arctic fox will scavenge the wreckage of the Ukrainian Economy and grow fat. Nobody will give money to junta and even the IMF which promised something about 17 billion dollars (exactly 50% of that that is necessary for Ukraine this year), "put loopholes" in it's contract: if Kiev doesn't control all regions, Kiev won't receive cent. Hunger, cold and hyperinflation (caused by a hryvnia collapse) will actively work for weakening of junta and for changing the minds of Ukrainians. They certainly won't love Russia, but that isn't necessary. What is necessary is that Yanukovych's period was remembered by Ukranians as a sweet, unattainable dream. The inevitable chaos and full distruction of social structures, together with slow civil war guarantees that NATO won't take Ukraine because Europe "will lay down the law" and in the USA more or less moderate politicians won't allow Obama to take a step which guarantees a USA policy failure, not to mention bringing the US and Russia to the brink of WWIII. Moreover, in the conditions of total economic crash, miners, steel workers, and their fellows now hanging onto their jobs with clenched fists for fear to lose them,and in hopes "to wait out the chaos", will finally realize the futility of doing so. They must participate, one way or another, in the solution of political and economic problems of Novorossiya. Most likely, by joining the army to fight for their rights.

At the same time, the junta of Poroshenko, cajoled by the European Union, will have the strongest incentive to find common ground with Moscow, to make concessions, to offer compromises. The European Commission, reconstituted following the recent EU wide elections, will push Poroshenko's in this direction, including a ceasefire in the east and stablized gas transit. The social explosions caused by the colonel Golod and the saboteur Giperk, will add to a shift in the policies of the Kiev Putschists, headed by Poroshenko. All these factors, in toto, open for the Kremlin great opportunities for reformatting of the wreckage of Ukraine into something corresponding to the interests of the Russian Federation.

The United States is trying to avoid this scenario and because of it they are doggedly rushing to shift the conflict to a hot phase with application of armies and large-scale bloodshed. IDuring the time necessary for Famine, and Hyperinflation to do their work, Russia is busy settling affairs with China, and Iran, furiously disconnecting the Russian Economy from the dollar, initiating import substitution, etc: all of which should conclude in 5-9 months (about December which Yanukovych tried to get agreement on), providing solutions to the Ukrainian and other questions which are to the maximum advantage of Russia.

For this period, it is necessary to provide at least preservation of Ukraine in a condition of civil war (i.e. DNR, LNR support, but there is no rush to take Kiev less Russia create for itself other problems), and ideally to combine civil war with tightened and glacially paced negotiations, with participation of international observers, something like a format 2+4, i.e. Poroshenko, Tsarov + the Russian Federation, EU, OSCE, & USA.

Finally, recently, the USA strongly reduced Quantitative Easing, "injection of money" from $ 85 billion, to 55 billion dollars a month. Many anticipate (for example http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/27/us-usa-fed-idUSBREA3Q08920140427) that this program will be terminated by the end of this year. Again the December timeframe. Though the US dollar is the main international currency, it is impossible to print it infinitely. By different estimates, America almost completely exhausted "the dollar's durability" which enabled it to manipulate the world financial system. Moreover, this caused nearly zero interest rates on the American bonds which, helps Washington to pay less on it's debt at the expense ofl American pension funds and insurance companies,which are constructed on the expectation of 8% returns on their portfolios of bonds.

Roughly speaking, by the end of the year the USA will have to choose between blowing up it's social system by printing further, and strongly reducing fund flows into money center banks, if it is to have any chance of stabilization at home. Judging by the decrease in quantity of dollars thrown at the banks, Washington decided that explosion prevention of itself - is more important than foreign policy ambitions.
Perhaps there were no willing suppliers for the ammo and machine guns ordered by the USDA???

Now, the forecast:
- America will try to aggravate in every way crisis in Ukraine to weaken the Russian Federation and to put under itself all European market before it is necessary to switch off the press.

- The Kremlin will try to transfer crisis in Ukraine from a sharp phase to the chronic - civil war plus slow negotiations against economic collapse of Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin will use time to create the most comfortable conditions for transition to a phase of sharp opposition with the USA - untying from dollar, work with China, Iran, Qatar, EurAsEC creation etc.

- The full end of crisis by December 2014, is possible, earlier if the USA stops aggravation attempts.

- And if doesn't stop?

- Then... war... big resource war since shale "boom" was ordinary ponzi scheme.

On this subject in detail see William Engdal's article "The Washington shale boom – bankrupt".
To close, the original of Washington's Shale Boom Going Bust was in: http://journal-neo.org/2014/05/12/washington-s-shale-boom-going-bust/ ." The Shale Oil Production in the USA is expected to peak in 2016, possibly next year, depending upon the amount of wells drilled between now and then.For more on Shale Oil Dynamics, look up "Drill Baby Drill" by Nick Turse and download it.

arpakola wrote:
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42 wounded Ukrainian servicemen while 2 dead. That's according to Ukrainian side

flamming_python wrote:
Time for operation Ukrainian Freedom

flamming_python wrote:Ukraine has started a huge offensive on all fronts.

Krasny Liman, Kramatorsk have fallen, Slavyansk under attack, multiple firefights in Lugansk.

NATO defense ministers have unanimously supported the Ukrainian operation. A plan for assistance to the Ukrainian army is being drafted.

This goes beyond all bounds IMO, this cannot be accepted.

East Ukrainians are already shouting that Putin, Russia betrayed them.
Time for operation Ukrainian Freedom

OK, I'll bite.

1. Given Russia's recent aggression in the Crimea, and pro-Russian/anti-Kiev proxies using sophisticated weaponry in an extended standoff with government forces, the United States should treat state-sponsored military forces as potentially high-end threats.
2. Building upon that and the Israeli lessons in Lebanon, proxy forces should be treated as if they are state-sponsored. Overall operational and strategic direction must prioritize defeating indigenous paramilitaries in the field while establishing legitimacy should take second priority. In other words, the United States cannot establish a legitimate government until it has consolidated its position in the field.
3. Russia and China must be stood up to. Sovereignty over their respective soil and waters will be respected; however, incursions by state-sponsored military or non-state actors into American waters, airspace, or soil will be met with lethal force. If Russia or China does not respect our borders, they will not respect our nation.
4. Terrorist organizations shall be treated as if they were independent nations. Any action against a terror organization will be a rapid, punitive expedition to showcase American superiority. Terrorist organizations specialize in crippling militaries by dragging out wars; punitive, targeted military operations will avoid this pitfall.
5. NATO must be abandoned as an effective military-political organization, or must be radically streamlined so that nations will be able to contribute in a meaningful way to collective defense. If a nation does not commit at least a certain percentage of its GDP to military spending, it waives its right to collective defense under Article IV of the North Atlantic Treaty.
6. Units will be reorganized according to their combat potential. The amount of staff officers will be set at a fixed ratio to the number of servicemen and women.

That's all I got so far.