The Situation in the Ukraine. #21

Khepesh wrote:On the Purgin affair. He has late last night made an interview to "Fotanka". That he is not going to contest his arrest and "resignation" shows that he has been told not to. However, he does say that he was essentially neutralised because he was capable of thinking for himself and of wanting to work in the interests of DNR. He also comments that it is odd that Zakharchenko is silent, and who controls the MGB. I'm going to leave this subject about Purgin, which I do not doubt will please some, unless a major problem occurs. I said yesterday that a rally is called for outside the State Administration building at midday this Saturday. I suspect this will not happen, or be very poorly attended. IMO, a good understanding of "Animal Farm" is required to understand some of what has and is happening in all of Ukraine, and the reasons for the murder of Mozgovoi should become clearer to any who had doubts.
http://www.fontanka.ru/2015/09/09/130/?feed

Animal Farm was an allusion to what came of the Bolshevik revolutionaries who took power after overthrowing the previous dictatorship.

Khepesh, what I really don't get is - what is it with you and others talking of this whole uprising in the Donbass as a 'revolution'?

That's straight up Maidan talk - and Maidan is what we want to avoid in every single respect.

It would be more accurate to call it a counter-revolution, which is not the same as a revolution - it's a counter and reaction rather than something that brings new ideas.

But even then that wouldn't be quite correct, as Maidan was not a revolution either; that was just the PR and propaganda - in actual fact it brought no 'new' ideology of way of doing things (other than perhaps some Nazi henchmen); it was just a oligarch-led coup by the elite against the reigning elite, sponsored by the US & EU, and will geopolitical ramificaitons.

So what the Donbass really was, was just the rejection of the new coup-led government. Which quickly turned into a demand for autonomy and wholesale rejection of nationalistic-populist policies reigning in Kiev, and which then turned into a separatist conflict, whereby the up-risers insisted on independence and their own laws/language/traditions/defence/etc...

If revolution and a 'new way of doing things' is your priority, then would I suggest that your priorities are in the wrong order.
Number one should be getting rid of Kiev and the illegitimate claims of its illegal government over rule of the region.
Everything else is secondary to that.
Even reverting to the status-quo under Yanukovich, with all the corruption, oligarchial rule, etc... that that would entail would still be much preferable than being conquered by Kiev. Similarly, even a seperatist government subject to infighting and authoritarianism would still be much preferable to being ruled by the Kiev government - which I can pretty safely state is about x10 worse.
What then are you fighting for you may ask? To survive, that's what, and to have your own country. This is more important than building some ideal state.

For sure no-one likes the old ways and no-one wants to emulate Kiev if they can help it, but to build up some 'disillusionment' about that - is to grossly miss the point, the fact that a war of survival is being waged, not one against the 'old order'. I don't recall the Red Army turning on Stalin for his totalitarianism while the Germans were killing their women and children.

Khepesh wrote:

gregoire wrote:

Doubts about what? I don't understand what's happening at all. In my opinion LPR and DPR can stay in Ukraine After they have wiped out the nazis. Maybe this is what it's all about. I don't know and have no clue why Mozgovoi was murdered but I'm certain it was an inside job. But if you ask me for motives, I really don't know why he was killed.

This is my personal opinion and is "streamlined" for clarity, so may, and probably is, not 100% in all aspects.
A majority in Donbass do not want to be part of Ukraine at all. Of that majority some want an independant Novorossiya, either just DNR and LNR, or a "Greater Novorossiya" from Kharkov to Odessa. Others, pehaps a majority I think, want to be part of Russia. A minority want to remain part of Ukraine, but a "Novoukraina" purged of fascists and an ally of Russia. This last option, expressed in different ways, is what it seems a majority who express an opinion outside of Donbass want. This, esssentially, is what Kremlin wants, it is also want Mozgovoi wanted, but also purged of oligarchs and corrupt politicians as well as fascists. Mozgovoi was killed because he stepped on toes of oligarchs and corrupt politicians, and he had a brigade of troops and popular support behind him. If he was simply just an individual, a blogger for instance, expressing the views he did, he would be ignored, but he had military force behind him and that was seen as a threat to vested interests, commercial and political. Purgin has been "purged" because, like Mozgovoi, he is a free thinker, but mostly becuase he strongly wants Donbass to be part of Russia as an autonymous people's republic. This is anathema to the interests of oligarchs who do not need any form of state border seperating their various business interests. While various crimminals can make money from smuggling, in the long term the interests of the oligarchs is damaged by what will be to them, unnecessary borders. Purgin, also steps on political toes as it is clear from Moscow and Kiev that an independant Donbass/Novorossiya or a Donbass that is part of Russia is not needed, no matter the wishes of the population, and here we have the causes for discontent, purges and murder.

AFAIK Mozgovoi wanted the Donbass to become part of Russia.

He was anti-oligarch and all that, but all for Slavic unity at the end of the day.

It's neither a revolution nor a counter-revolution. It's a war of independence.

It looks like ordinary proxy war to me.

flamming_python wrote:
Animal Farm was an allusion to what came of the Bolshevik revolutionaries who took power after overthrowing the previous dictatorship.

Khepesh, what I really don't get is - what is it with you and others talking of this whole uprising in the Donbass as a 'revolution'?

That's straight up Maidan talk - and Maidan is what we want to avoid in every single respect.

It would be more accurate to call it a counter-revolution, which is not the same as a revolution - it's a counter and reaction rather than something that brings new ideas.

But even then that wouldn't be quite correct, as Maidan was not a revolution either; that was just the PR and propaganda - in actual fact it brought no 'new' ideology of way of doing things (other than perhaps some Nazi henchmen); it was just a oligarch-led coup by the elite against the reigning elite, sponsored by the US & EU, and will geopolitical ramificaitons.

So what the Donbass really was, was just the rejection of the new coup-led government. Which quickly turned into a demand for autonomy and wholesale rejection of nationalistic-populist policies reigning in Kiev, and which then turned into a separatist conflict, whereby the up-risers insisted on independence and their own laws/language/traditions/defence/etc...

If revolution and a 'new way of doing things' is your priority, then would I suggest that your priorities are in the wrong order.
Number one should be getting rid of Kiev and the illegitimate claims of its illegal government over rule of the region.
Everything else is secondary to that.
Even reverting to the status-quo under Yanukovich, with all the corruption, oligarchial rule, etc... that that would entail would still be much preferable than being conquered by Kiev. Similarly, even a seperatist government subject to infighting and authoritarianism would still be much preferable to being ruled by the Kiev government - which I can pretty safely state is about x10 worse.
What then are you fighting for you may ask? To survive, that's what, and to have your own country. This is more important than building some ideal state.

For sure no-one likes the old ways and no-one wants to emulate Kiev if they can help it, but to build up some 'disillusionment' about that - is to grossly miss the point, the fact that a war of survival is being waged, not one against the 'old order'. I don't recall the Red Army turning on Stalin for his totalitarianism while the Germans were killing their women and children.

"Animal Farm" as "1984" is perfectly applicable to modern situations, and will always do so.

Where have I ever used the term "revolution" to describe what happens in Donbass? And where have I ever mentioned any "new way of doing things"? The rest of your post is a mix of truths mixed with distortions and black propaganda, for example the suggestion that anybody not toeing the "party line" and saying bad things about the partners, and in particular the oligarchs, is a some "Donbass maidanist", ridiculous. Such tricks do not pass by me and you or anybody wastes their time engaging me at that level.

Purgin and others had been agitating since the "Orange revolution" to remove Donbass from Ukraine, not as a reaction to the coup in Kiev last year. It was not a revolution or even counter revolution as no action was taken against Kiev, it was a rebellion to gain freedom from Kiev, not change Kiev, and is certainly not "just the rejection of the new coup-led government" as you suggest. This all, as I am sure you are aware, dates back to 1918, not 2014.

flamming_python wrote:
AFAIK Mozgovoi wanted the Donbass to become part of Russia.

He was anti-oligarch and all that, but all for Slavic unity at the end of the day.

He wanted all of Ukraine, not just Donbass, that is why he dared to speak to ukrops commanders to try and convince them they were fighting for the wrong side. He viewed himself as "Ukranian", but not in the nationalist Galician sense, simply as a type of Russian.

flamming_python wrote:

Animal Farm was an allusion to what came of the Bolshevik revolutionaries who took power after overthrowing the previous dictatorship.

Khepesh, what I really don't get is - what is it with you and others talking of this whole uprising in the Donbass as a 'revolution'?

That's straight up Maidan talk - and Maidan is what we want to avoid in every single respect.

It would be more accurate to call it a counter-revolution, which is not the same as a revolution - it's a counter and reaction rather than something that brings new ideas.

I agree, the way I followed it was the people in DNR/LPR wanted to maintain life as usual but without the interference from Kiev, which had been building up even before Maidan. That of course became completely impossible when the Right Sector et al. were sent in to kill unarmed citizens manning check points, then the UAF were sent in to up the ante an we know the rest.

Independence for DPR/LPR with strong ties to Russia would be the best solution atm. second best is Minsk II.

Erk wrote:
I agree, the way I followed it was the people in DNR/LPR wanted to maintain life as usual but without the interference from Kiev, which had been building up even before Maidan. That of course became completely impossible when the Right Sector et al. were sent in to kill unarmed citizens manning check points, then the UAF were sent in to up the ante an we know the rest.

Independence for DPR/LPR with strong ties to Russia would be the best solution atm. second best is Minsk II.

Yet on the referendum held on 11 May 2014, in Donetsk 89,07% voted for seperation and in Lugansk 96,2% voted for seperation.

Khepesh wrote:

Erk wrote:
I agree, the way I followed it was the people in DNR/LPR wanted to maintain life as usual but without the interference from Kiev, which had been building up even before Maidan. That of course became completely impossible when the Right Sector et al. were sent in to kill unarmed citizens manning check points, then the UAF were sent in to up the ante an we know the rest.

Independence for DPR/LPR with strong ties to Russia would be the best solution atm. second best is Minsk II.

Yet on the referendum held on 11 May 2014, in Donetsk 89,07% voted for seperation and in Lugansk 96,2% voted for seperation.

They voted for sovereignty; which can be interpreted as self-rule from the government, or any number of things - the word independence wasn't mentioned there.
And this was after the coup in Kiev, so the implication was they wanted sovereignty from them.

I'm sure if a vote on independence was held the results wouldn't have been too much lower, but it wasn't so we'd never know.

Khepesh wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
Animal Farm was an allusion to what came of the Bolshevik revolutionaries who took power after overthrowing the previous dictatorship.

Khepesh, what I really don't get is - what is it with you and others talking of this whole uprising in the Donbass as a 'revolution'?

That's straight up Maidan talk - and Maidan is what we want to avoid in every single respect.

It would be more accurate to call it a counter-revolution, which is not the same as a revolution - it's a counter and reaction rather than something that brings new ideas.

But even then that wouldn't be quite correct, as Maidan was not a revolution either; that was just the PR and propaganda - in actual fact it brought no 'new' ideology of way of doing things (other than perhaps some Nazi henchmen); it was just a oligarch-led coup by the elite against the reigning elite, sponsored by the US & EU, and will geopolitical ramificaitons.

So what the Donbass really was, was just the rejection of the new coup-led government. Which quickly turned into a demand for autonomy and wholesale rejection of nationalistic-populist policies reigning in Kiev, and which then turned into a separatist conflict, whereby the up-risers insisted on independence and their own laws/language/traditions/defence/etc...

If revolution and a 'new way of doing things' is your priority, then would I suggest that your priorities are in the wrong order.
Number one should be getting rid of Kiev and the illegitimate claims of its illegal government over rule of the region.
Everything else is secondary to that.
Even reverting to the status-quo under Yanukovich, with all the corruption, oligarchial rule, etc... that that would entail would still be much preferable than being conquered by Kiev. Similarly, even a seperatist government subject to infighting and authoritarianism would still be much preferable to being ruled by the Kiev government - which I can pretty safely state is about x10 worse.
What then are you fighting for you may ask? To survive, that's what, and to have your own country. This is more important than building some ideal state.

For sure no-one likes the old ways and no-one wants to emulate Kiev if they can help it, but to build up some 'disillusionment' about that - is to grossly miss the point, the fact that a war of survival is being waged, not one against the 'old order'. I don't recall the Red Army turning on Stalin for his totalitarianism while the Germans were killing their women and children.

"Animal Farm" as "1984" is perfectly applicable to modern situations, and will always do so.

Where have I ever used the term "revolution" to describe what happens in Donbass? And where have I ever mentioned any "new way of doing things"? The rest of your post is a mix of truths mixed with distortions and black propaganda, for example the suggestion that anybody not toeing the "party line" and saying bad things about the partners, and in particular the oligarchs, is a some "Donbass maidanist", ridiculous. Such tricks do not pass by me and you or anybody wastes their time engaging me at that level.

Purgin and others had been agitating since the "Orange revolution" to remove Donbass from Ukraine, not as a reaction to the coup in Kiev last year. It was not a revolution or even counter revolution as no action was taken against Kiev, it was a rebellion to gain freedom from Kiev, not change Kiev, and is certainly not "just the rejection of the new coup-led government" as you suggest. This all, as I am sure you are aware, dates back to 1918, not 2014.

You didn't use the term revolution, but I was under the impression that's what you were getting at - since you linked to blog posts where the rebellion was talked about like some sort of sunny beginning to a global Russian revolution of self-determination, or something; and then you mentioned Animal Farm - which is literature associated with commentary on the Russian Revolution. I thought you were off your pot.

Very well, if I assumed too much than I apologize.
I myself, am also not who you assume me to be - I made no suggestion that those not toeing the party line and saying bad things about the Donbass government are some sort of 'Maidanists'; I'm not from that faction that attempts to justify everything the DNR/LNR does (yet more behaviour that has that Maidanist stench to it).
I meant only that there are more important matters at stake right now (and everyone knows what) and that we should attempt to distance ourselves from the sort of faux idealism or revolutionary sentiment that fooled so many in Ukraine proper and brought everything to ruin.
Those who talk too much about revolution I do happen to take a dim view on. First let's beat back Kiev, then all the other stuff can come later.

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:...
............................. Purgin, also steps on political toes as it is clear from Moscow and Kiev that an independant Donbass/Novorossiya or a Donbass that is part of Russia is not needed, no matter the wishes of the population, and here we have the causes for discontent, purges and murder.

Khepesh, I have already mentioned several times that tolerating rogue elements in armed forces is recipe for disaster (eg. Batman) and have seen the results of it myself during Balkan wars.

But more importantly you need to realize that Purgin has not been silenced or purged. More accurate term would be "benched".
His approach is not needed now but that does not mean that it will remain so in the future.

And this conflict will be a long one.
 

That Purgin was in the basement for four days, and this was lied about, sends a message telling people what to think, and to shut up. People, many, just want this over and to be part of Russia or of a Ukraine purged of all hostile elements. Many do not see that happening so want to be part of Russia now, not in an unknown number of years in the future. They are really not interested in being pawns in any global struggle, they never wanted that. More are getting angry that they, Russian by all indicators except passport, are being told essentially that they are "Ukranians" and should accept that they live in Ukraine. At the start of this crisis a huge amount of effort had to be used to convince people who knew nothing about the region that "Ukraine" is an illusion and that everybody, except in Galicia and Transcarpathia, are Russians and that Ukranian is a dialect of Russian influenced by various western Slavonic languages, not a "base" language. A little more than a year later and it seems that this is all to be forgotten and they are in fact "Ukranian" after all and should stop complaining about it. I prefer some consistancy about this and am not content with what I now see. IMO, this situation should be dealt with sooner rather than later.

I just want to make this general comment. It is said that nothing of what now constitutes Ukraine should be taken into Russia as it will be a financial burden, let alone the political implications. Sure this is so, but if we wait for Ukraine to collapse, then what? simply leave it alone, and then who takes over? Russia cannot have an unfriendly and chaotic Ukraine so must eventually act. If it is said that Russia does not need 40 million extra people to support, then how much worse will the burden be when Ukraine has totally collapsed and nothing works and people starve, than now when tho the situation deteriorates, it is not yet chaotic. To me it is better to go in now as I suspect that any consequences of action now will not be worse than the action that will have to be taken eventually anyway. I see no indications of a "Russia friendly" coup taking place in Ukraine, in fact I see only the opposite and that if Poroshenko is forced out, then the replacement will be worse for Russia. This is what I base the "do not wait" element of some of my posts on, a calculation of what is worse, now or later, not some gung ho waving the sabre and shouting "на киев!"

flamming_python wrote: First let's beat back Kiev, then all the other stuff can come later.

I agree. Let me point out that while I am anti-oligarch, I am not some revolutionary, as the type of oligarch that emerged after 1991 was not a "normal" businessman, but a totally immoral robber baron of a type generally not seen in the west for a hundred years. You know this of course. Berezovsvky and the many like him were never normal people and the sooner all of them are in hell the better. Besides, I cannot be a revolutionary as I hold shares in ventures in Siberia and need commerce to suceed.

Khepesh wrote:That Purgin was in the basement for four days, and this was lied about, sends a message telling people what to think, and to shut up. People, many, just want this over and to be part of Russia or of a Ukraine purged of all hostile elements. Many do not see that happening so want to be part of Russia now, not in an unknown number of years in the future. They are really not interested in being pawns in any global struggle, they never wanted that. More are getting angry that they, Russian by all indicators except passport, are being told essentially that they are "Ukranians" and should accept that they live in Ukraine.

These people should move to Russia and do not expect that Russia moves to them.
Let the Kremlin try to maintain influence in Ukraine without local people and deal with dissatisfied former Ukrainians in Russia until the Kremlin elite changes course and stops expecting Minsk II to work.
Vote with your feet if your voices are ignored.

JohninMK wrote:This could become very interesting diplomatically, next stop The Hague (but I don't think so as that is only for the 'West' cases).

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Russia has launched criminal charges against a number of highly-ranked Ukrainian military officials, including the country’s defense minister and the head of the General Staff, as well as Radical Party Leader Oleh Lyashko, Russian Investigative Committee spokesman Vladimir Markin said Thursday.

“A criminal case has been launched against Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak, Ukrainian Defense Ministry General Staff head Viktor Muzhenko, Ukrainian Grounds Troops Armed Forces Commander Anatoliy Pushnyakov, Ukrainian National Guard Commander Mykola Balan, and other individuals from Ukraine’s Armed Forces and National Guard,” Markin said. Markin said the highly-ranked military officials have been charged with using prohibited means and methods of conducting war and genocide.

Markin also noted that Ukrainian Radical Party leader Oleh Lyashko and individuals from the Azov battalion have also been charged with abducting individuals, torture, and using prohibited means and methods of conducting war and genocide.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150910/1026815498.html#ixzz3lKHHGJvv

As you say, The Hague, ICC et al are political tools. They are tools that prosecute those that don't toe the line created by the EU and the US.
There hasn't been a single case brought against certain politicians who have launched invasions that have led to hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of civilian deaths.

Speaking of people that should be hauled in front of a court, I see in news a couple of months ago that Tony Bliar resigned as the "Peace" Envoy to the Middle East. You couldn't make that shit up.
And people wonder why the Middle East is in flames.
I wonder what gig he'll get next?

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

Khepesh wrote:That Purgin was in the basement for four days, and this was lied about, sends a message telling people what to think, and to shut up. People, many, just want this over and to be part of Russia or of a Ukraine purged of all hostile elements. Many do not see that happening so want to be part of Russia now, not in an unknown number of years in the future. They are really not interested in being pawns in any global struggle, they never wanted that. More are getting angry that they, Russian by all indicators except passport, are being told essentially that they are "Ukranians" and should accept that they live in Ukraine.

These people should move to Russia and do not expect that Russia moves to them.
Let the Kremlin try to maintain influence in Ukraine without local people and deal with dissatisfied former Ukrainians in Russia until the Kremlin elite changes course and stops expecting Minsk II to work.
Vote with your feet if your voices are ignored.

They do not need to move to Russia as they are already living on Russian land. Your proposal legitimises the essentially anti Russian acts of Lenin, Krushchev and Yeltsin.

Khepesh wrote:They do not need to move to Russia as they are already living on Russian land.

You mean Novorussian land.

Khepesh wrote:Your proposal legitimises the essentially anti Russian acts of Lenin, Krushchev and Yeltsin.

I am more focused on the future rather than on a past that can't be changed.
Novorussia needs more support from the Kremlin or greater independency from it.
If neither can be achieved, abandoning it should be seriously considered.

listen what about. novorussia is in a such situation that is not easy for them. thus russia maibe think at posibility of failure. so for russia is only one problem. if they really want novorussia join them if not novorussia just tink is better in the other way after all russia cannot let all things on the weak novorussia

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

Khepesh wrote:They do not need to move to Russia as they are already living on Russian land.

You mean Novorussian land.

Khepesh wrote:Your proposal legitimises the essentially anti Russian acts of Lenin, Krushchev and Yeltsin.

I am more focused on the future rather than on a past that can't be changed.
Novorussia needs more support from the Kremlin or greater independency from it.
If neither can be achieved, abandoning it should be seriously considered.

Just as there was never a country called "Ukraine", neither was a there a country called "Novorossiya", simply the name given to a geographic area of Russia. Don't forget that Crimea was supossed to be "Ukranian" forever as a result of the infamous "Belovezhskie accords", so seems the past is reversible. Abandoning Donbass will be abandoning any hope of having Ukraine as a stable friendly country and will be inviting NATO tank divisions within, at least theoretically, a few hours drive from Belgorod. I am convinced this will happen if the situation is not resolved entirely in Russia's favor.

This article makes the point that five countries lay claim, or can lay claim, to parts of Ukraine. Russia, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland. If the situation in Ukraine gets a lot worse, and this is more likely than less likely, and Ukraine begins to fall, then it is possible that large areas could dissapear. If Ukraine is to survive, and let's remember that Putin says that a unified friendly Ukraine is required, then the only country that can guarantee the survival of all Ukraine is Russia. If Ukraine continues on the path it is on now, then it will be destroyed from within and from along it's western borders. The path for Kiev is clear, but they cannot, will not, see it. http://snr24.com/obschie-novosti/11680-v-kieve-priznalis-chto-buduschie-partnery-po-es-imeyut-k-ney-territorialnye-pretenzii.html

point is that ucraine may be near russia but to be as you know them otherwise they could be near west as well

JohninMK wrote:
Whatever happens in Kiev, what did they expect? NATO has de-facto moved its operations closer to Russia. Russia has lost a 'buffer' zone. Of course Russia is going to 'harden' up its facilities facing the West.

Russia gave away it's buffer zone in 1991. Yeah yeah, too late to regret it now.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

JohninMK wrote:
Whatever happens in Kiev, what did they expect? NATO has de-facto moved its operations closer to Russia. Russia has lost a 'buffer' zone. Of course Russia is going to 'harden' up its facilities facing the West.

Russia gave away it's buffer zone in 1991. Yeah yeah, too late to regret it now.

Buffer zones are WWII era dinosaur defense concepts. We now live in the missile era and securing land to delay invading
armies just does not have the value it had in the past. Now any army NATO wants to send at Russia can be carpet bombed/rocketed
with tactical nukes. This will create very nice buffer zones devoid of obstacles and life.