PLA Navy and Naval Air Force

Vladimir79 wrote:Any one of their fleets could be wiped out by one or two SSNs.  

A single SSN cannot wipe anything near that. Their ASW is decent enough, combining French, Russian and Israeli tech that they imported and reverse-engineered in the 90s and 00s.

Only Type 56A corvette, sports bow, towed array and variable depth sonars; and they're building them at crazy rates.

Tsavo Lion wrote:
No, those r demobilized or soldiers "on leave" from the PLA:

You can post all the Chinese news you want, it doesn't change the fact that the PLA and all of its branches have not been in combat in nearly 40 years.  On a side note I highly doubt the CCP is actively trying to instigate something with the good friends in Myanmar, that would be a serious political blunder on their part.

KiloGolf wrote:

A single SSN cannot wipe anything near that. Their ASW is decent enough, combining French, Russian and Israeli tech that they imported and reverse-engineered in the 90s and 00s.

Only Type 56A corvette, sports bow, towed array and variable depth sonars; and they're building them at crazy rates.

The weapon the US Navy fears most are Russian attack submarines and for good reason. Western SSNs going after China is a cake walk. Western SSNs are stealthy even against the latest Thales CAPTAS towed arrays, China doesn't have anything in that league.

Vladimir79 wrote:The weapon the US Navy fears most are Russian attack submarines and for good reason.  Western SSNs going after China is a cake walk.  Western SSNs are stealthy even against the latest Thales CAPTAS towed arrays, China doesn't have anything in that league.  

They fear them cause

a. it makes funding flow to their budget
b. they can't be seen in the media as loosing even a single destroyer, even though they operate over 60 of them - flawed logic imo.

In reality the Russian SSN fleet is small, partially obsolete and thus weak. I mean in the Pacific there's only 4 of them, meaning only one can be actively patrolling, most of the time.

Vladimir79 wrote:Western SSNs are stealthy even against the latest Thales CAPTAS towed arrays, China doesn't have anything in that league.  

Western SSNs cruising around the South China Sea or Yellow Sea are not stealthy, they will be detected eventually, same for Soviet era Akula I.

KiloGolf wrote:They fear them cause

a. it makes funding flow to their budget
b. they can't be seen in the media as loosing even a single destroyer, even though they operate over 60 of them - flawed logic imo.

In reality the Russian SSN fleet is small, partially obsolete and thus weak. I mean in the Pacific there's only 4 of them, meaning only one can be actively patrolling, most of the time.

Western SSNs cruising around the South China Sea or Yellow Sea are not stealthy, they will be detected eventually, same for Soviet era Akula I.

The Oscars and Akulas in the Pacific Fleet would decimate the PLAN. They can't stop it due to their weak ASW capabilities. Even the US Report to Congress on China lists that as one of their greatest weaknesses.

Vladimir79 wrote:

Tsavo Lion wrote:
No, those r demobilized or soldiers "on leave" from the PLA:

You can post all the Chinese news you want, it doesn't change the fact that the PLA and all of its branches have not been in combat in nearly 40 years.

Those soldiers will return from Myanmar & train the others. The same with sailors that been on overseas cruises. They have the #s, & even with high losses in a new conflict, replacements can take their place.
Back in the 1970s, China could mobilize 65M people into the armed forces. A real tiger can intimidate any1 by its size, looks, roar & mere presence w/o doing anything else. A country with its #2 economy in the world doesn't have to be aggressive to get most of what it wants from others. Look at recent developments in both Koreas & Philippines in their relations with China. It's not over yet- the others like Taiwan, Vietnam, & Indonesia will also fall in line.
Once they build a few nuclear icebreakers, the NSR & Panama/Suez canals can be bypassed between the PRC & Europe. With their new OBOR network they won't even need very big navy to protect SLOCs.
Also, big Chinese diaspora all over the world can be an asset the others don't have. Let me ask: was the USSR a paper tiger while bleeding in Afghanistan? Is the USA a paper tiger while bleeding & not winning in Canada (war of 1812), Korea, Vietnam, Iraq & Afghanistan? In the last 2 World Wars in Europe, the USA joined at the last possible moment, preserving itself, and economically dominating the world as a result. Now China, by the same token, not having been fighting in the last 40 years, is slowly but surely is taking its place, especially in the Asia-Pacific.

Vladimir79 wrote:The Oscars and Akulas in the Pacific Fleet would decimate the PLAN.  They can't stop it due to their weak ASW capabilities.  Even the US Report to Congress on China lists that as one of their greatest weaknesses.  

Based on their number there can never more than 4 (or 5 at the very best) of PF SSNs and SSGNs at sea at any given time. So no, they can't do any of that to the PLAN e.g. in East China sea. They can sink some ships if they're lucky, but ultimately, with increasing numbers of Y-8Q flying around, as the PLAN corvette/frigate/destroyer force is huge and with a good dozen of Kilos patrolling, RuN subs will be decimated.

Tsavo Lion wrote:
Those soldiers will return from Myanmar & train the others. The same with sailors that been on overseas cruises. They have the #s, & even with high losses in a new conflict, replacements can take their place.
Back in the 1970s, China could mobilize 65M people into the armed forces. A real tiger can intimidate any1 by its size, looks, roar & mere presence w/o doing anything else. A country with its #2 economy in the world doesn't have to be aggressive to get most of what it wants from others. Look at recent developments in both Koreas & Philippines in their relations with China. It's not over yet- the others like Taiwan, Vietnam, & Indonesia will also fall in line.
Once they build a few nuclear icebreakers, the NSR & Panama/Suez canals can be bypassed between the PRC & Europe. With their new OBOR network they won't even need very big navy to protect SLOCs.
Also, big Chinese diaspora all over the world can be an asset the others don't have. Let me ask: was the USSR a paper tiger while bleeding in Afghanistan? Is the USA a paper tiger while bleeding & not winning in Canada (war of 1812), Korea, Vietnam, Iraq & Afghanistan? In the last 2 World Wars in Europe, the USA joined at the last possible moment, preserving itself, and economically dominating the world as a result. Now China, by the same token, not having been fighting in the last 40 years, is slowly but surely is taking its place, especially in the Asia-Pacific.
 

Good for those soldiers. Fighting with a rebel army on their own time doesn't give them combat experience. It gives them terrorism experience and getting caught is a political nightmare for the CCP. OBOR isn't doing well these days with the debt problems, Malaysia is already cutting it, Myanmar is considering reductions and Pakistan is under so much debt now they can't afford to continue. The Chinese economy is in troubled waters right now and that spigot of cash is drying up. Chinese diaspora is only an asset if they field loyalty to the homeland, many do not. China not fighting for 40 years is its biggest weakness.

KiloGolf wrote:

Based on their number there can never more than 4 (or 5 at best) of PF SSNs and SSGNs at sea at any given time. So no, they can't do any of that to the PLAN e.g. in East China sea. They can sink some ships if they're lucky, but ultimately, with increasing numbers of Y-8Q flying around, as the PLAN corvette/frigate/destroyer force is huge and with a good dozen of Kilos patrolling, RuN subs will be decimated.

4-5 Oscars and Akulas is all that is needed to bloody the PLAN, they would not think twice about entering Russian waters, not to mention the nukes that would be coming their way. What China has is not enough to detect even late Soviet era acoustic signatures.

Vladimir79 wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:

Based on their number there can never more than 4 (or 5 at best) of PF SSNs and SSGNs at sea at any given time. So no, they can't do any of that to the PLAN e.g. in East China sea. They can sink some ships if they're lucky, but ultimately, with increasing numbers of Y-8Q flying around, as the PLAN corvette/frigate/destroyer force is huge and with a good dozen of Kilos patrolling, RuN subs will be decimated.

4-5 Oscars and Akulas is all that is needed to bloody the PLAN, they would not think twice about entering Russian waters, not to mention the nukes that would be coming their way.  What China has is not enough to detect even late Soviet era acoustic signatures.  

On Russian waters/EEZ in the Pacific (sea of Okhotsk and most of sea of Japan), you are right.
Nobody can play games there, they will get wrecked.

They r placing SOSUS-like detection devices on the sea bottom. http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/10906/south-china-sea-underwater-environmental-sensor-net-could-track-u-s-subs

http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2016/06/chinas-seaweb-undersea-surveillance.html

Their ASW is not standing still: https://www.popsci.com/y-8q-chinas-submarine-hunting-plane-has-giant-stinger#page-6

To be safe, the Russian subs better stay outside the 1st Island Chain in any conflict with China. Also, their base in Vladivostok can be hit by long range MRLSs & in Kamchatka by SLCMs.
http://www.military-today.com/artillery/a300.htm

http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2018-04/28/content_8019233.htm

http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/china-military-news/2015-09/07/content_6669734.htm


Many "overseas Chinese' still have ancestors graves, relatives & friends in China, they r loyal to them & the government can exploit it. The thousands of Chinese students, tourists & businessmen r all potential sources of intelligence.

Tsavo Lion wrote:They r placing SOSUS-like detection devices on the sea bottom. http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/10906/south-china-sea-underwater-environmental-sensor-net-could-track-u-s-subs

http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2016/06/chinas-seaweb-undersea-surveillance.html

Their ASW is not standing still: https://www.popsci.com/y-8q-chinas-submarine-hunting-plane-has-giant-stinger#page-6

To be safe, the Russian subs better stay outside the 1st Island Chain in any conflict with China. Their base in Vladivostok can be hit by long range MRLSs & in Kamchatka by SLCMs.
Many "overseas Chinese' still have ancestors graves, relatives & friends in China, they r loyal to them & the government can exploit it. The Chinese students, tourists & businessmen r sources of intelligence.

Connected by optical cables.... yeah that wouldn't last long. Snip here, snip there... its over.

Don't worry, they'll be protected by UUVs &/ dolphins. Before thy r cut, the subs will be detected. https://regnum.ru/news/it/2452653.html
But all that is hypothetical. China absorbed all her invaders & only the coastal areas could be partially colonized- no1 could have controlled such vast area & huge diverse population. The Mongols did for a while, but were thrown out. The Manchus got Cinisized. The Japanese got bogged down there. Now, Lioning, Inner Mongolia, Tibet & Sinkiang r guarding against invasions from the North, SW & West. Pakistan is a close ally. The current naval buildup will secure the coastline.
A tiger that didn't fight other tigers in a long time is still fully capable of defending itself. Russia needs peaceful China more than China needs Russia. Any war between them will only benefit USA, Japan, India & the UK.

Vladimir79 wrote:

walle83 wrote:22+ destroyers,
25+ frigates,
~40 corvettes,
4 SSBN,
4-6 SSN,
10-15 SSK,
5 large LPD ships
and 2 large aircraft carriers

launched or deployed in the last 8-10 years even you must agree that the PLA is doing quite good.

Looking at the results of their massive build up they are left with two carriers without planes, submarines that are so loud the Japanese are forcing them to surface in total embarrassment, destroyers that are breaking down and being towed back from the Indian Ocean, LPDs with an LCAC that can only carry a fraction of traditional ones and a bunch of missile boats that are little more than target practice for any modern navy.  The Chinese greatest weakness on the water is not the lack of carrier aviation but lack of quality ASW.  They are relying on antiquated French helicopter ASW from the late 80s which are practically useless against modern SSNs and SSKs which would wreak havoc on Chinese shipping lanes.  Any one of their fleets could be wiped out by one or two SSNs.  

U really see the glas half emty dont u

Tsavo Lion wrote:Don't worry, they'll be protected by UUVs &/ dolphins. Before thy r cut, the subs will be detected. https://regnum.ru/news/it/2452653.html
But all that is hypothetical. China absorbed all her invaders & only the coastal areas could be partially colonized- no1 could have controlled such vast area & huge diverse population. The Mongols did for a while, but were thrown out. The Manchus got Cinisized. The Japanese got bogged down there. Now, Lioning, Inner Mongolia, Tibet & Sinkiang r guarding against invasions from the North, SW & West. Pakistan is a close ally. The current naval buildup will secure the coastline.
A tiger that didn't fight other tigers in a long time is still fully capable of defending itself. Russia needs peaceful China more than China needs Russia. Any war between them will only benefit USA, Japan, India & the UK.

Sure they will, a fishing trawler could sneak in with a package to cut it and they wouldn't know until it is too late. The French went over there and conquered them, destroyed the Summer Palace and took Indochine humiliating the Chinese without breaking a sweat. If the French could defeat them they don't have much hope of counting on any legacy of greatness to win modern wars they are not prepared to fight.

Hey Vladimir, name 3 positive things with the PLA navy build Up.
Now this Will be a challenge for u

Vladimir79 wrote:
Sure they will, a fishing trawler could sneak in with a package to cut it and they wouldn't know until it is too late. The French went over there and conquered them, destroyed the Summer Palace and took Indochine humiliating the Chinese without breaking a sweat.  If the French could defeat them they don't have much hope of counting on any legacy of greatness to win modern wars they are not prepared to fight. 

They now have large CG backed by people's militia & the Navy & will stop any fishing trawler not fully manned by Chinese nationals.
Don't compare the Ching Dynasty China to today's PRC. The French weren't fighting any Chinese armies in Indochina. The Vietnamese were supported by China & USSR, & the French & later the Americans lost, as they did in Korea in 1953. U r grasping for straws.

Tsavo Lion wrote:
They now have large CG backed by people's militia & the Navy & will stop any fishing trawler not fully manned by Chinese nationals.
Don't compare the Ching Dynasty China to today's PRC. The French weren't fighting any Chinese armies in Indochina. The Vietnamese were supported by China & USSR, & the French & later the Americans lost, as they did in Korea in 1953. U r grasping for straws.

Those Vietnamese and Filipino trawlers cross that line everyday and that SOSUS net is far too wide to monitor every inch of it. There really is nothing they can do to stop them. The French fought Chinese armies in China, they sank the only modern fleet they had built without a single loss. China had the entire might of the PLA on the border of Vietnam and couldn't even hold it. the French occupied the entire country from the time China lost it to the time they handed it over to the Americans.

Vladimir79 wrote:China had the entire might of the PLA on the border of Vietnam and couldn't even hold it

What?
PLA used a limited contingent against Vietnam (no massive mobilization or allocation of forces) and set very limited goals, which they met and then f'ed off.

Fishing boats can't cut everywhere either, the SOSUS will have redundancy with multiple sensors, cables, etc. The PLA & CCP didn't want to pick up a new fight after the long civil war ended on the mainland with Taiwan & S. Korea being supported by the USA.
The French were together with UK, Germans, Americans & Russians during the Boxer Rebellion; they can now only intervene with success in Libya, their former African colonies & keep French Guiana, New Caledonia & Tahiti from going independent. In 2008, after losing 10 soldiers, they left Afghanistan: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/aug/20/afghanistan.france
The British Empire lost an army there in 1842:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Anglo-Afghan_War

It lost again in 1919: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Anglo-Afghan_War

Russia infamously lost to Japan in 1905: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War

Together with the USA, both later defeated Germany & Japan in 1945. But, if not for the heroic Chinese resistance against the Japanese in China, Russia could have been invaded in E.Siberia & the Red Army would have been unable to send fresh divisions West to fight the Germans. Just because China lost some wars in the past, it doesn't automatically mean it will loose future wars.
Don't underestimate them.

Just because China lost some wars in the past, it doesn't automatically mean it will loose future wars.

Of course it does not, but you can obviously argue that tactics are vastly more important than numbers... otherwise there is no way Japan or Germany could have occupied most of asia and europe respectively during WWII.

If Russia had a fleet 100 times larger than it has now then that would not make it more effective or more powerful... what it would do is make it bankrupt to build and operate such a bloated force.

Production numbers for China are not the only factor to consider.

A conflict between Russia and China is almost impossible... they are far more sensible than that and neither views military force as a first or second option to solve their international problems.

America on the other hand thinks regime change is a legitimate and legal option but only for them.

A growing Chinese navy will enable them to spread their influence and support their efforts around the world.

The west has been exploiting africa and central and south america for a couple of centuries now, but have done little to improve infrastructure and development.

China has been investing and actually helping african countries to develop. Trade where both partners profit and develop. A better developed africa and central and south america is a good thing for the world, but the west does not like that idea. They love their first, second and third world model and want that to remain... so eventually they are going to have to challenge China... China will need a decent navy when that happens... and I think their best chance of having a decent navy is cooperation with Russia... they already deploy a lot of Russian designed technology anyway, and Russian navy tactics and systems are designed to face NATO type threats.

I have said before if pure numbers are what it is all about the Russians could easily pump out hundreds of 1980s technology ships, but what would be the point?
They already have such vessels in reserve... a quick overhaul and they could be operating, but they want better than that.

China is just producing what it can and there is nothing wrong with that, but one on one you can't really compare them.