Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #8

And not a single (intelligent) person was surprised.

Syria conflict: Russia 'to continue air strikes' after withdrawal

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35812371

PapaDragon wrote:
And not a single (intelligent) person was surprised.  

Syria conflict: Russia 'to continue air strikes' after withdrawal

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35812371

Hind helicopters only in the Palmyra front, based at Shayrat.

AFP news agency Verified account ‏@AFP

#BREAKING Russian air strikes near Palmyra as Syrian troops push advance: monitor


https://twitter.com/AFP/status/709752948956504064

PapaDragon wrote:
AFP news agency Verified account ‏@AFP

#BREAKING Russian air strikes near Palmyra as Syrian troops push advance: monitor


https://twitter.com/AFP/status/709752948956504064

Hind helicopters based at Shayrat. No more Russian planes left in Syria.

Putin says the decision to stop operations in Syria was not to please someone.

https://twitter.com/dimsmirnov175/status/709762166459600896

Even though some of us are disappointed over the Russian withdraw, we all knew Russia is a backstabber. Russia backstabbed its pal Milosevic. Russia backstabbed its pal Saddam. Russia backstabbed its pal Gaddafi. Russia backstabbed its pal Iran. Russia backstabbed its pal Cuba. Russia backstabbed its pal North Korea. Russia backstabbed its pal Yanukovych. Russia backstabbed its pal Assad. Basically Russia is politically isolated and surrounded by enemies.

So basically, the deal is Russia gets to keep its 2 bases in Alawite part of Syria, and Syria gets partitioned into small chunks. Putin agrees because there's no way SAA can take back all of Syria where Sunnis are the majority. This is win win for Russia and the US. Russia is left with a tiny Alawite ally and the US gained a huge Sunni proxy army Nusra and IS and a whole bunch of Sunni rebel groups which make up the majority of the former Syrian Arab Republic.

While the deal sounds good for Russia, jihadists will use Syria as a base and through Turkey and Georgia and Ukraine launch attacks on Russia's mainland. So all in all Russia lost big time by withdrawing from Syria and let Syria become a jihadist haven, just like what happened with Afghanistan.

For those of you without ignore list

OminousSpudd wrote:Looks like MoD is confident that the elite ground troops have done their job, and that Hezzies/Iran/SAA can take the rest of the groundwork from here. I've got to say, I love just how unpredictable Russia is, hell, it's got boys from this forum spinning cartwheels, just imagine what the Pentagon is doing right now. I can guarantee the Pentagon (or the Wheretheygon) is absolutely buzzing with confusion. Glorious, glorious confusion.

I have it from a reliable source that confusion does indeed reign in Washington. But, Putin and MOD are only doing exactly what they said they would when this whole thing started. I really seems that the existence of a world power that is true to its word, and for whom lying isn't simply routine, simply does not compute. Glorious confusion indeed.

Macgregor's opinion should carry weight, so this is interesting:

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — 07:55 15.03.2016

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to withdraw Russian air combat units from Syria was a brilliant move taken at exactly the correct time, retired US Colonel and military historian Doug Macgregor told Sputnik.

On Monday, Putin said that Russia’s armed forces had fulfilled their mission in Syria, and their withdrawal would start the following day.
"Putin just announced the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria. His point was that Russian forces had accomplished their objectives [and] he is correct," Macgregor, who holds a doctoral degree in international relations from the US Military Academy at West Point, said on Monday.
Macgregor argued that Putin accurately assessed the achievements of his air combat forces, which have acted in support of the regular Syrian army over the past seven months.
"In one stroke, he's stopped the Sunni Islamists from overthrowing [Syrian President Bashar] Assad and simultaneously defused the tensions with the Turks that threaten to spin out of control. [It is] a brilliant move."
The Russian decision to pull out had also clearly been calculated to force Assad to agree to a negotiated compromise peace, and to warn Iran that there were limits to how much they could expect Russia to do on behalf of their ally Syria, Macgregor explained.
"No doubt Putin has signaled Assad that if Assad cannot now sustain himself in power more Russian military assistance won't help. He's also telling his Iranian ally that there are limits to Russian military support."
Macgregor added that Putin’s example of setting clear, focused strategic goals and knowing when to withdraw his military forces set a positive example for US political leaders to emulate.
"If only we had similarly intelligent national leadership. We should have done the same in Iraq during the fall of 2003. We should have left Afghanistan in 2002. Instead we exacerbated regional tensions and handed Iran control of Iraq. Afghanistan is now far more divided, corrupt and potentially troublesome than it was in 2001."
Doug Macgregor is a leading US military tactician and commander whose squadron destroyed an entire Iraqi Armored Brigade in 23 minutes, while suffering only one casualty, at the Battle of 73 Easting, a decisive tank fight during the 1991 Gulf War.

http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20160315/1036289643/putin-syria-pullout-strategy.html#ixzz42zSUNg1A

Aren't people being overly optimistic here?

1.) SAA hasn't captured Palmyra, and or Raqqa, you'll still have parts of the northern border under lawlessness, not controlled by SAA nor YPG. You have a large eastern border leading to Iraq that's under chaos, and large oil fields financing ISIS/JAN operations.

2.) I'm not completely opposed to the withdraw of most of the VKS detachment in Lattakia, but it would make a lot more sense for those aircraft to be transferred to a forward operating VKS base in Western Iran to continue the air campaign in Iraq instead of going back to Russia. It's clear to everyone that the NATO mission against ISIS in Iraq's real goal was to de facto protect ISIS/JAN and prevent the free movement of 10's if not 100's of thousands of Shia irregular forces. By bringing Russia in you could kill multiple birds with one stone. The VKS detachment in Iraq could strike in western Iraq/eastern Syria and usher in the collapsing of ISIS/JAN fronts located there, and being the harbinger of a massive cauldron the size of Syria/Iraq. It will put pressure on NATO detachment to actually fight ISIS and stop de facto protecting them, or end up leaving the theater of operations embarrassed, with their tails between their legs. It'll drive Turkey back out of Northern Iraq, help seal the northern border (which will prevent the movement of arms from western Iraq to eastern Syria), it'll put immense pressure on the corrupt scoundrel Barzarni, to stop being a Turkish/NATO puppet, and the harbinger of Balkanization of Iraq.

3.) FFS the same people were defecating their undergarments and where claiming 2 weeks ago that the SAA were incompetent imbeciles for not being able to capture a highway on their first try (it wasn't just Monarchist/Ultron saying this) but now they're saying that they can handle most of the rest on their own. Talk about split personality disorder.

Expect car bombs to explode in Moscow as jihadists from Syria go through Turkey, Georgia, Ukraine. Jihadists are assets of America. Putin never should have signed ceasefire with jihadists when he was winning.

Russia killed thousands of jihadists in Syria through bombing. These jihadists and their families are bent on revenge. Once Russia leaves Syria, it's impossible to come back because Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the US arm jihadists with sophisticated weaponry and US troops set up base in Syria when Trump is in office.

Either Russia stays out of Syria, or Russia finish the job and help SAA take back Syria from jihadists. Quitting when jihadists are alive and well was a mistake of Russia.

magnumcromagnon wrote:Aren't people being overly optimistic here?

1.) SAA hasn't captured Palmyra, and or Raqqa, you'll still have parts of the northern border under lawlessness, not controlled by SAA nor YPG. You have a large eastern border leading to Iraq that's under chaos, and large oil fields financing ISIS/JAN operations.

2.) I'm not completely opposed to the withdraw of most of the VKS detachment in Lattakia, but it would make a lot more sense for those aircraft to be transferred to a forward operating VKS base in Western Iran to continue the air campaign in Iraq instead of going back to Russia. It's clear to everyone that the NATO mission against ISIS in Iraq's real goal was to de facto protect ISIS/JAN and prevent the free movement of 10's if not 100's of thousands of Shia irregular forces. By bringing Russia in you could kill multiple birds with one stone. The VKS detachment in Iraq could strike in western Iraq/eastern Syria and usher in the collapsing of ISIS/JAN fronts located there, and being the harbinger of a massive cauldron the size of Syria/Iraq. It will put pressure on NATO detachment to actually fight ISIS and stop de facto protecting them, or end up leaving the theater of operations embarrassed, with their tails between their legs. It'll drive Turkey back out of Northern Iraq, help seal the northern border (which will prevent the movement of arms from western Iraq to eastern Syria), it'll put immense pressure on the corrupt scoundrel Barzarni, to stop being a Turkish/NATO puppet, and the harbinger of Balkanization of Iraq.

3.) FFS the same people were defecating their undergarments and where claiming 2 weeks ago that the SAA were incompetent imbeciles for not being able to capture a highway on their first try (it wasn't just Monarchist/Ultron saying this) but now they're saying that they can handle most of the rest on their own. Talk about split personality disorder.

No one said they can or can't handle. We said and we'll keep saying the SAA needs a deep reform. It's not going to win anything as of now. Everyone knows it. Neither are Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda Light. It's a stale mate, and it's not going to be easy to win anything in Syria as long as the war keeps being fought from the current POV's. Peace is needed to kill most of the filth while they can't actually fight back in the same way. Look at Chechnya.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:Aren't people being overly optimistic here?

1.) SAA hasn't captured Palmyra, and or Raqqa, you'll still have parts of the northern border under lawlessness, not controlled by SAA nor YPG. You have a large eastern border leading to Iraq that's under chaos, and large oil fields financing ISIS/JAN operations.

2.) I'm not completely opposed to the withdraw of most of the VKS detachment in Lattakia, but it would make a lot more sense for those aircraft to be transferred to a forward operating VKS base in Western Iran to continue the air campaign in Iraq instead of going back to Russia. It's clear to everyone that the NATO mission against ISIS in Iraq's real goal was to de facto protect ISIS/JAN and prevent the free movement of 10's if not 100's of thousands of Shia irregular forces. By bringing Russia in you could kill multiple birds with one stone. The VKS detachment in Iraq could strike in western Iraq/eastern Syria and usher in the collapsing of ISIS/JAN fronts located there, and being the harbinger of a massive cauldron the size of Syria/Iraq. It will put pressure on NATO detachment to actually fight ISIS and stop de facto protecting them, or end up leaving the theater of operations embarrassed, with their tails between their legs. It'll drive Turkey back out of Northern Iraq, help seal the northern border (which will prevent the movement of arms from western Iraq to eastern Syria), it'll put immense pressure on the corrupt scoundrel Barzarni, to stop being a Turkish/NATO puppet, and the harbinger of Balkanization of Iraq.

3.) FFS the same people were defecating their undergarments and where claiming 2 weeks ago that the SAA were incompetent imbeciles for not being able to capture a highway on their first try (it wasn't just Monarchist/Ultron saying this) but now they're saying that they can handle most of the rest on their own. Talk about split personality disorder.

No one said they can or can't handle. We said and we'll keep saying the SAA needs a deep reform. It's not going to win anything as of now. Everyone knows it. Neither are Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda Light. It's a stale mate, and it's not going to be easy to win anything in Syria as long as the war keeps being fought from the current POV's. Peace is needed to kill most of the filth while they can't actually fight back in the same way. Look at Chechnya.

It is possible that this draw-down will prove to be the wrong strategy. But all strategies have their drawbacks and risks. If Russia just keeps doing much of the heavy lifting from the air, some of the risks are a peace that can't last long term, and a Syrian armed forces that doesn't properly mature and reform because it doesn't have to.

Right now, in the area of foreign policy, the Russian government and armed forces seem to entering an era of peak effectiveness. The military, intelligence and diplomatic components really appear to be working in an effective tandem, as they ideally should. So, for now, I am choosing cautious optimism here.

ultron wrote:Putin is no Stalin. Stalin never negotiates. Stalin crushes. Hitler died because Stalin refused ceasefire.

I though Hitler committed suicide, its new to me that it was Stalin's refusal for a ceasefire which caused his death.


Btw, some of your posts in the thread are word for word the exact stuff that Al Jihadi diplomatic editor James Bays have been uttering.

Putin has knowingly put Russians in great danger. He poked the Hornets nest. Jihadists in Syria were neutral to Russia before the intervention. Now they hate Russia to the bone and traveling through Ukraine and Turkey and Georgia they will do car bombs in Russia.

Its a good resting and testing period to check who all are to be pulverized in the next wave.  

Murad Gazdiev ‏@MuradoRT  17 hours ago
Gonna be tough on Nusra&JihadiFriends now; knowing that if they try to retake what they've lost - the Russians will just come back again

Beautiful birds, Su-34 with Tu-154 on their way back home....

All the planes are withdrawn. Only a few Hinds left at Shayrat.

SAA soldiers other than the Alawite ones do not want to fight. Nusra warriors are not afraid of death. Looks like Hama city is about to fall. Jihadists breed tens of thousands of warriors per year. Russia killed thousands of jihadists, but they were very quickly replaced by new ones.

Some things never change...

Do you remember ?
1991 - it was USSR, and then Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia etc....
90s - it was Jugoslavia, and then Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro etc...
2000's - it was Lybia....
2015 - it was Syria, and then Kurdistan, Alewistan etc...

At the end will be something like this :
202x - it was Russia, and then Siberia, Kievan Rus, Moscow Rus etc...

Sad, but true

Russia and her friends are doomed. Why ?
It's not about bad luck or stronger adversaries...

It's mostly about bad management and short-sighted government. Nothing more or less.
Firstly, it was Gorbachev and next Yeltsin.
Now it's Putin.

Yes, i know, Putin receives a bad heritage from both previous, but this is not an excuse.
I simply cannot rank Putin high enough, he doesn't deserve it.

15 years of leadership and ...nothing!
Nothing more than Gorbachev and Yeltsin.
Putin was always only on defensive.
15 years of defence - looking back we can see how long were these years.
No change, no alternation of the course.
Always following the world's affairs and development, trying to react and adjust towards them.
There was a time, when USSR did the world's agenda...

Russia doesn't need such a leaders. Russia needs a man, who can change the current trend.
Trend, which is unfavourable for the country and if it goes in the same manner, the end will be disastrous.

In 1991 USSR had 1/6 of the earth area, almost 300 mln. citizens, developed industry and economics, oil, natural gas...and Gorbachev
In 1945 USSR had almost nothing after bloody WW 2, but Stalin...

I cannot concede , that USSR '91 has been in weaker stance than USSR '45.

It never rains, but it pours...

Well now, no doubt it is a troll. I was resilient to believe it, but that is just to obvious now.

Werewolf wrote:Well now, no doubt it is a troll. I was resilient to believe it, but that is just to obvious now.

+1

Solncepek wrote:Some things never change...

Do you remember ?
1991 - it was USSR, and then Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia etc....
90s -  it was Jugoslavia, and then Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro etc...
2000's - it was Lybia....
2015 - it was Syria, and then Kurdistan, Alewistan etc...

At the end will be something like this :
202x - it was Russia, and then Siberia, Kievan Rus, Moscow Rus etc...

Sad, but true

Russia and her friends are doomed. Why ?
It's not about bad luck or stronger adversaries...

It's mostly about bad management and short-sighted government. Nothing more or less.
Firstly, it was Gorbachev and next Yeltsin.
Now it's Putin.

Yes, i know, Putin receives a bad heritage from both previous, but this is not an excuse.
I simply cannot rank Putin high enough, he doesn't deserve it.

15 years of leadership and ...nothing!
Nothing more than Gorbachev and Yeltsin.
Putin was always only on defensive.
15 years of defence - looking back we can see how long were these years.
No change, no alternation of the course.
Always following the world's affairs and development, trying to react and adjust towards them.
There was a time, when USSR did the world's agenda...

Russia doesn't need such a leaders. Russia needs a man, who can change the current trend.
Trend, which is unfavourable for the country and if it goes in the same manner, the end will be disastrous.

In 1991 USSR had 1/6 of the earth area, almost 300 mln. citizens, developed industry and economics, oil, natural gas...and Gorbachev
In 1945 USSR had almost nothing after bloody WW 2, but Stalin...

I cannot concede , that USSR '91 has been in weaker stance than USSR '45.

It never rains, but it pours...

Russia is not a western society. Russia is an eastern society. In Russia the president is president for life and has absolute authority. This is in direct contrast with America which limits the president's duration and power. Eastern society is always weaker than western society.

In America people can criticize the president without fear of retaliation. Even on this forum people are not allowed to criticize Putin or they get banned.

America has freedom of speech. Russia does not have freedom of speech.

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

par far wrote:Pulling out of Syria is a big mistake, by pulling out, Russia sends out a bad message to its allies, that Russia will not stand with its allies.

I really hope Russians in this forum(and in general all Russians) don't bitch and whine, if Iran makes a deal with the west, that goes agianst Russians interests.

par far,

Don't get me wrong. If you had ever read this forum, you would know that the reality is very different from what someone who lives in a "Matrix" believes, but my argument below is intended to argue things from your perspective, not mine.

Didn't it occur to you that, maybe at this stage in the current world war, the message Russia is sending and has recently been sending to his allies is for them to stop punching below their weights for a change, or at least for his allies not to engage in "questionable" activities?

I assume you are an Iranian; correct me if I am wrong. Now, can you tell the forum members what the Iranian foreign minister is doing here in the "US" vassal state of Australia?

Now let's move away from your "realities" a bit:

Yesterday, it was "reported" that the "Turkish" "forces" were moving towards the Iranian border. Maybe "they" are thinking that Iran, as a Russian ally, is going to take some proactive measures. Now, if you are an Iranian, have you volunteered?

Morpheus Eberhardt, I am going t respond to your questions, with the best I can, Syria always punched above thier weight, the Zionsts wanted to destroy Syria and Syria was able to keep the Jews at bay for 4 years and Syria never engaged in any "questionable" activites, it was a given that the Jews were going t send in thier lap dog NATO into Syria and this was when Russia decided that if they did not go in, that Syria would meet, the same fate as Libya, Russian intervention was the best thing to happen because it sent a message that Russia is strong to stop NATO but with this withdrawal, the message is Russia does cannot complete the task(Russia should stayed for a 3-4 more weeks to give, the SAA, a strong foothold on Al-Raqqa and a strong foot hold in other places), pulling out now, is just a bad decision.

The Iranian foreign minister to do the same thing as Russian ministers do in US vassal states of the EU, business, can you tell me why Russia is selling gas and oil to the EU? EU countries are vassals of the US.

I am going to assume you are Russian, every day in the news, it is reported that the fascists in Ukraine are moving close to the Russian border, have you volunteered yet? Ukraine probably thinks you are an ally of Iran and you will take action and Ukraine is very close to Turkey.

Dima wrote:

Werewolf wrote:Well now, no doubt it is a troll. I was resilient to believe it, but that is just to obvious now.

+1

I didn't pay too much attention before...just skipped over the posts. But the insistent and persistent screeching has got louder and louder.
It is bizarre the mods are basically letting him spam away, the same message over and over again in multiple threads, like a 9 year old with a mental defect.