eehnie wrote:Data by weight class, updated at the begin of 2018 from Russianplanes.net and other complementary sources:
1st Size Cathegory: -
2nd Size Cathegory: Active 011 Reserve 015 Production 1984-Today An-124
3rd Size Cathegory: Active 003 Reserve 002 Production 1979-Today Il-86/80/96
Active 004 Reserve 005 Production 1966-1975 An-22
4th Size Cathegory: Active 152 Reserve 065 Production 1973-Today Il-76/78/A-50
Active 006 Reserve 003 Production 1966-Today Il-62
5th Size Cathegory: Active 006 Reserve 000 Production 1990-Today Tu-204/214
Active 018 Reserve 003 Production 1969-Today Tu-154
6th Size Cathegory: Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 2010-Today Su-Superjet100
Active 035 Reserve 052 Production 1980-Today Mi-26/27
Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 1976-2003 Yak-42/142: http://russianplanes.net/planelist/Yakovlev/Yak-42
Active 065 Reserve 098 Production 1964-1989 Tu-134
Active 044 Reserve 009 Production 1959-1985 Il-18/20/22/24
Active 064 Reserve 048 Production 1957-1972 An-10/12
7th Size Cathegory: Active 028 Reserve 019 Production 1985-Today An-72/71/74
Active 000 Reserve 010 Production 1960-1980 Mi-6/10/22
8th Size Cathegory: Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 2018-Today Mi-38 (would need to reach around 16500 Kg of Maximum Take-Off Weight)
Active 161 Reserve 260 Production 1962-Today An-24/26/30/32
9th Size Cathegory: Active 099 Reserve 000 Production 2009-Today Yak-130
Active 138 Reserve 068 Production 1979-Today Ka-27/28/29/31/32
10th Size Cathegory: Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 1993-Today Che-22: http://www.airwar.ru/enc/sea/che22.html
11th Size Cathegory: Active 036 Reserve 000 Production 2013-Today Mi-Ansat
Active 028 Reserve 029 Production 1966-1993 Mi-2
Active 036 Reserve 038 Production 1950-1991 An-2
12th Size Cathegory: Active 041 Reserve 000 Production 2004-Today Ka-226
13th Size Cathegory: Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 2018-Today Yak-152
Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 1996-2008 Il-103: https://russianplanes.net/planelist/Ilushin/Il-103
Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 1989-Today MAI-890: http://www.airwar.ru/enc/la/mai890.html
Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 1985-Today Yak-55/54/56: https://www.aviaport.ru/directory/aviation/jak54/
Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 1984-Today Su-26/29/31: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-29
Active 099 Reserve 240 Production 1977-1998 Yak-52
Including all the most modern Russian and Sovietic successful aircrafts and helicopters with production over 50 units, plus the Mi-38 and the Yak-152, which mass production begins now, are expected to be a success, and have been ordered by the Russian Armed Forces. Included not foreign aircrafts that are likely to disappear soon from the Russian Armed forces (by sale, transfer to other governmental ministries or other way):
Active 012 Reserve 000 Production 2009-Today An-148/158/178 in the weignt clas of the An-72/74Active 009 Reserve 000 Production 1997-Today An-140 in the weight class of the An-24/26/30/32Active 029 Reserve 070 Production 1970-2015 L-410 in the weight class of the Che-22Active 200 Reserve 000 Production 1977-1998 L-39 in the weight class of the An-2Green means production available for Russia. Blue means unlikely to reach the Russian Armed Forces. Purple is related with foreign and local aircrafts likely to disappear soon.
Between the 6 biggest cathegories aircrafts are dominant. Between the following 6 cathegories the helicopters would be dominant despite to be not present in all the cathegories, taking into account the success of the Mi-26/27 and the Mi-6/10 (bigger than the success of the An-72/71/74, with higher number of units produced). And in the smallest cathegory trainer aircrafts would be dominant. In the future I would expect:
- Transport aircrafts to be successful in the 2nd to 6th cathegories (since 20 tons payload).
- Airliner aircrafts to be successful in the 3rd to 6th cathegories (since 95-100 passengers + mid range >5000Km).
- Helicopters to be successful in the 6th to 12th cathegories (until 20 tons payload).
- Trainer aircrafts to be successful in the 9th and 13th cathegories.
The success is uncertain, even unlikely, for the rest of the options. As overall rule, I would avoid to invest on them.
More explanation about, in the following link:
https://www.russiadefence.net/t4312p75-russian-transport-aircraft-fleet-vta#189143According to it, this would be the
order of priority for auxiliary aircrafts and helicopters:0.- Su-SJ100 (I expect some order from the Russian Armed Forces in the short term).
1.- Ka-60/62 (in the Che-22 10th size class with around 2.5 tons payload)
2.- Tu-330 (in the Tu-204/214 5th size class with around 40 tons payload).
3.- Mi-46/AHL (in the An-72/71/74 7th size class with around 15 tons payload).
4.- Il-106/PTS Ermak 80 (in the An-22 3rd size class with around 80 tons payload).
5.- Il-276 (in the An-10/12 6th size class with around 20 tons payload).
6.- PTS Ermak 160 (in the An-124 2nd size class with around 160 tons payload).
7.- Tu-304/Frigate Freejet (in the Il-62 4th size class for double configuration: 1 mid passenger capacity + long range, 2 high passenger capacity + mid range).
8.- New Aircraft (in the Il-76/78 Be-A50 4th size class with around 60 tons payload).
9.- CRAIC CR929 (in the Il-86/80/96 3rd size class for high passenger capacity + long range).
10.- Ka-40 Minoga (in the Ka/27/28/29/31/32/35 9th size class with around 5 tons payload).
11.- New Helicopter (in the Mi-26/27 6th size class with around 20 tons payload.
12.- MS-21/Yak-242 (in the Tu-204/214 5th size class for mid passenger capacity + mid range).
Note that the PTS Ermak 240 would come as consecuence of the three sizes philosophy of the PAK-VTA project, but would not be prioritary in my view. The Il-PAK-TA is not in the list because would be for air transport in contested areas.
The Mi-6/10/22 seems exhausted, pending total decommission.
I would expect the An-22 to be used until to be totally exhausted in the short-term.
The An-2 need also a plan for total exhaustion.