I don't think there's much chance of Turkish dive-bombers wiping out most of the Russian air force in the first couple of weeks of a surprise invasion, so whatever ends up happening it can't ultimately be too negative for Russia. Most importantly it'll be good for the lulz.
Sort of how the US let Saddam Hussein invade Kuwait. In fact even laid the incentive for him doing so with some pipeline shenanigance.
Except in this case Russia doesn't need to take action, but simply lay back and chill.