European gas imports

Europe is going green at last!

Russian gas breaks the European Union, by Gevorg Mirzayan for VZGLYAD. 01.05.2022.

Europe is ready to apply sanctions not only against Russia, but also against itself. The European Commission is discussing the possibility of punishing those EU countries that have agreed to pay for Russian gas in Russian currency. What will these sanctions look like and what sad consequences will they bring to Europe?

Beat your own so that strangers are afraid - especially if your own turned out to be not quite your own. The European Commission promises to use this principle in relation to those countries that violate bloc discipline. In particular, they circumvent the sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia (according to the European Commission itself, of course).

There is no unity

“The legal framework is such that if an EU country fails to fulfill its obligation to apply sanctions, the European Commission can launch a legal procedure against such a state. Of course, I did not say that we are already at this stage. Not at all. If a European enterprise acts according to the rules stipulated by the Russian decree, in the end, it will pay in a currency that will be converted by the Russian authorities at an uncontrolled rate and terms in a ruble account. And this, of course, violates the sanctions regime,” said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.

This question is extremely subtle. The fact is that the unity of the European Union is one of the creeds of the organization (which positions itself as one big family of European peoples), as well as its legal pillars. A significant part of decisions in the EU must be made by consensus. And if national governments always put their own selfish interests above the pan-European ones (in the Brussels sense of the word, of course), then the European Union will be simply paralyzed.

And now this creed is under threat due to the mistakes of the European Union itself and the use of these mistakes by Russia. Brussels' theft of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves and its willingness to steal the money Europe would pay for Russian gas prompted Moscow to issue an ultimatum to Europe: Either it pays in rubles through a euro transfer to a Russian bank (where the money will be safe) or Gazprom turns the valve on.

“The European Union is existentially dependent on Russian gas. Whatever the European Commission may say now, the EU countries cannot afford to refuse Russian gas. And one of the most important results of the demand that Russia announced to pay for gas in rubles was the split of the EU on the gas issue, termination of the subjectivity of the European Commission and Brussels in the field of regulation of gas relations. Some countries and companies have already come out in favor of adopting the new rules, while others are against it, and are deprived of Russian gas imports. There was a bilateralization of gas relations between Russia and the EU countries, as well as the destruction of the unity of the European Union, ”Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, explains to the VZGLYAD newspaper.

That is, to put it simply, the European Union did not dare to ban the member countries from using the Russian scheme (since there would be no gas then, and the scheme is quite legal), but did not approve it either (since this would be perceived as a weakness of Brussels), offering the member countries decide for yourself.

There is no wisdom

Apparently, in Europe, from the very beginning, this approach was considered a kind of “lesser evil” – a necessary payment, a concession for maintaining unity. “Solidarity is faltering, but in general, it is still preserved. The main difference is in the readiness to arm Ukraine and refuse to buy Russian energy resources. Otherwise, solidarity is quite in place, ”explains Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State Humanitarian University, to the VZGLYAD newspaper.

However, firstly, a number of member countries that advocate a tougher sanctions approach to the Russian Federation did not like this weakness. The Polish authorities have already proposed to “punish” those states that have expressed their readiness to buy Russian gas in rubles. “From a political point of view, it is necessary for every country to know that Russia's help to circumvent sanctions can lead to the imposition of such sanctions against it,” said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis.

Secondly, Moscow has already made it clear that the transfer of unfriendly countries to ruble payments for gas is only the first sign. It is possible that in the near future other goods, such as wheat, will be transferred to the same scheme.

Of course, there may not be a transfer, but for this it is necessary that Europe stop the sanctions rage. But this will not happen, because the United States and a number of Eastern European countries insist on the speedy adoption of the next package of sanctions against Russia. Which in itself will also become a problem.

“The content of the new package of sanctions is still unknown, but we can definitely say that they will hit European countries at least no less than Russia. All options that are relatively safe for European economies have already been tested, ”Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, explains to the VZGLYAD newspaper. This means that member countries will either rebel or be forced to look for ways to circumvent sanctions. “The stronger the economic problems of the EU, the less this solidarity will be. Shared values ​​are good when the rest of the basic needs are satisfied, but trouble is with them, ”Ivan Lizan, head of the analytical bureau of the SONAR-2050 project, explains to the VZGLYAD newspaper.

The European Union has two ways out of this difficult situation. The correct one is to accept a demo package, emasculated from some serious steps.

“European solidarity is strong enough, the EU will avoid decisions that will lead to the violation of the sanctions regime by the member states. If, for example, an oil embargo is imposed on countries, and they evade it, then this is not in the interests of the EU, ”Ivan Timofeev, RIAC Program Director, explains to the VZGLYAD newspaper. Wrong, but in line with the views of European bureaucrats, is to follow the tastes of Estonia, Poland, Latvia, introduce tough measures and threaten with punishments for non-fulfilment. And, judging by the words of Eric Mamer, Brussels went the wrong way.

No power

The first candidate for flogging is Hungary. On April 27, the European Commissioner for Budget and Administration, Johannes Hahn, sent a letter to the Hungarian government notifying that a mechanism was activated in relation to Budapest, reducing payments from the European budget to the Hungarian one. Formally, so far - for violating the principles of European law (Hungary refuses to comply with EU LGBT standards), but the irony is that Budapest is doing this together with Warsaw, which Brussels is not going to punish yet. Probably for her correct position on the Russian question.

The Hungarian authorities are already protesting. According to Andor Dely, an MP from the Fidesz party, Hungary is ready for negotiations with the EU, ready to take into account European concerns, but will not compromise on two key issues. “We will not get involved in a war and we will protect our children,” the deputy said.

Translated from intra-Hungarian to understandable, this means that the country will not supply weapons to Ukraine, suffer for Ukraine and provide its territory for the supply of weapons to Ukraine, and will not allow LGBT propaganda into the education and television system. It is unlikely that such an approach will satisfy the European Commission - after all, flogging should be indicative.

However, the question is, how serious will it be? The fact is that the European Union does not have effective tools for punishing member countries, and everything that exists must be adopted by consensus (with the exception of the voice of the guilty).

“The favorite pastime of the European bureaucracy, apart from decarbonization and the imposition of the ESG agenda, is to threaten the national governments of the EU member states with death penalties. It is not the first year that they have been threatening to punish the rebels, regardless of Russia. Yes, now there is a solid reason - Russia is forcibly recapturing their colony represented by Ukraine from the EU. But I doubt that the frondier countries themselves will agree to throw a stranglehold on themselves, giving the European bureaucracy the opportunity to punish,” explains Ivan Lizan.

The fact is that not only Hungarians, but also many other countries (both on issues of Russia and on issues of values) are potential violators of European sanctions and norms. And none of them - not even the Poles with all their calls - are unlikely to agree to create a precedent for the European Commission, giving it a serious whip in its hands. So “Hungary can be separated from the money received from European funds. They can also temporarily deprive them of the right to vote in the European Council and the EU Council of Ministers,” says Vadim Trukhachev. “The maximum is a daily cumulative fine, as in the case of Poland, a reduction in funding from European programs, and, perhaps, everything,” adds Ivan Lizan.

Such is it, European solidarity.

https://vz.ru/world/2022/5/1/1156531.html

Friendly fire is on.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europe-Looks-To-Azerbaijan-To-Help-Ease-Energy-Reliance-On-Russia.html

Europe Looks To Azerbaijan To Help Ease Energy Reliance On Russia

The European Union is hailing a new energy agreement with Azerbaijan that could see the gas-rich Caspian nation double the flow of gas to Europe in five years, part of Brussels’ effort to reduce reliance on Russia.

After the July 18 signing ceremony in Baku, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen both stressed their commitment to strengthening and broadening collaboration in energy and other areas.

“Cooperation in the field of energy has always been at the top of our agenda," said Aliyev. “We are interested in expanding cooperation in education, transportation and all other areas."

For her part, von der Leyen said that with the new memorandum of understanding, the EU is "opening a new chapter in our energy cooperation with Azerbaijan, a key partner in our efforts to move away from Russian fossil fuels."

EU Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson confirmed that under the memorandum Azerbaijan is "expected" to deliver an extra 4 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to the EU this year (bringing the total to 12 bcm) and to increase transfers to "at least" 20 bcm by 2027.

Despite the upbeat comments, the six sections of the five-page MoU are little more than a wish list of what both sides would like to see happen, given the right circumstances.

Short on details, the bulk of the document restates the EU's commitments and hopes regarding climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It includes broad suggestions of cooperation with Baku in renewable energy, energy efficiency and production, and the transit of "green hydrogen."

The only significant concrete proposal was the suggestion that Azerbaijan could double its gas exports to the EU by 2027.

That though is presented in the MoU as far short of a commitment. Both sides, it says, "aspire to support bilateral trade of natural gas, including through exports to the European Union, via the Southern Gas Corridor, of at least 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually by 2027, in accordance with commercial viability and market demand."

The statement is further tempered in the final article, which says that nothing in the MoU "… should create any binding legal or financial obligations" and that the MoU "does not constitute an obligation to allocate funds."

Such a frank "get out clause" is hardly unusual.

Azerbaijan's gas fields and the chain of pipelines that carry the gas through Georgia and Turkey to Greece – where some goes to Bulgaria and the bulk to Albania and across the Adriatic to Italy – are controlled by multi-party international consortia.

It is the companies comprising these consortia that will decide whether to invest the billions of dollars necessary to increase gas production and expand pipeline capacity.

Talks between the various partners on realizing that investment are believed to be underway.

With Europe eager to wean itself off Russian gas, and no end in sight to Moscow’s war on Ukraine, there seems little doubt that the consortia can sell all the gas they can transit.

But energy analysts are asking a more fundamental question: Can Azerbaijan provide? The country has limited scope for increased production and has its own growing demand to meet.

Late last year, to prevent domestic shortages, Baku reached a swap agreement to import gas from Iran, which in return receives the same volume from Turkmenistan.

BP, operator of Azerbaijan's biggest gas field, Shah Deniz, has warned that the field cannot supply all the gas needed to double exports to Europe, while other smaller fields under development are not expected to produce sufficient quantities.

For many years officials have discussed Azerbaijan transiting gas from its Caspian neighbor Turkmenistan, which holds the world's fourth-largest reserves.

Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay announced on June 2 that Ankara is looking at three ways of bringing gas from Turkmenistan to Turkey via Azerbaijan. One would expand the existing Turkmenistan-Iran-Azerbaijan swap, another would see a new pipeline cross part of the Caspian.

Turkey's intentions, though, are still unclear. Oktay confirmed only plans to bring the gas to Turkey via the Southern Gas Corridor; he made no mention whether it will then be transited to Europe and if so on what terms.

Baku too has remained quiet on the Turkish proposals. Aliyev's statement following the MoU signing suggested Baku is more interested in securing EU help to boost its renewables program to free up more of its own gas for export.

One thing, however, is abundantly clear: With Europe fearing that Moscow could stop its 150 bcm of gas deliveries as soon as this winter, an extra 10 bcm from the Caspian in five years will make little difference.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Turbine-Trouble-Could-Cause-Further-Gas-Supply-Shortages-In-Europe.html

This is going to be a long winter.

JohninMK wrote:Spriteer
@spriteer_774400
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24m
The German government said they do not know where the Siemens turbine is located, which is necessary for the resumption of the work of the Nord Stream.

It is much more than it seems.
German govt is pushing hard for this turbines to be back on line. Without them, and without gas, German economy is toasted.
If they don't know where those are, that would mean paralyzing the EU economy by US vassal Canada.
Again and again, this war is much more than Russia vs. US and client. This is a war targeting EU economy, and pushing Europe into an arms race that will benefit the US based MIC in the first place.

The problem is, that it is less and less what the US wants.
At the moment, the will of the US is relevant only to some specified bunch of vassal states, while the rest of the world is shaking off the dependency. Faster and faster.
And even those vassal states are struggling to make some space.
The latest visit to Saudi Arabia ... was a disaster.
If we stick to the Al Jazzerra coverage, the crown prince throws the Sleepy Joe out of the country. Commenting that "he will not allow the foot of this piece of garbage to be put on Saudi soil ever again" is something that gets out of a box of world politics.
Nobody dared to talk like that to the US president, ever.