Russian special military operation in Ukraine #3

Cheetah wrote:This entire operation seems very odd to me. In the way it's being carried out, that is. The main thing is the absence of the airforce. Are the Russians worried that Ukraine has some air defence packed away, guerilla style?

I understand, and even appreciate, that the Russians are clearing most of the towns with light armour, with an emphasis on minimising civilian casualties, but that approach isn't in any way mutually exclusive with bombing targets from 5000 metres.

Everything that needed to be destroyed has been

The focus is Izium in eastern sector right now 

Kiev and Kherson are sideshows , izium and mariupol is the focal point of this war at the moment 

Savage fighting right now there

Tabloid account, make of it what you will:

"The fighter jets that the European Union will supply to Ukraine will be Russian-made ones, from Bulgaria, Slovakia and Poland according to EU sources.

Looks like Ukraine will receive a lot of new MiG-29s."

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498070916768673800

"russian soldiers trying to match on tinder with women from the country they’re invading and then getting catfished for intel is such a weird “we live in the future” moment"

Okay...

Videos from Wargonzo:

Bugas is liberated by DNR troops


Standing on Mariopol- Volnovakha road, Simyon Pegon (Wargonzo) confirms that Mariopol in surrounded


5 Ukranian border guards move to Russian side

Orlan wrote:"russian soldiers trying to match on tinder with women from the country they’re invading and then getting catfished for intel is such a weird “we live in the future” moment"

Okay...

Ukro-propaganda is fooling many...

I want azov to be tried and executed, now that Russia is out of council of Europe, death penalty is back

Mariupol and Kiev , is where the main cleanup will happen, all those bandits must be captured, tried and executed

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/launchpad-russias-assault-ukraine-belarus-holds-referendum-renounce-non-nuclear-2022-02-27/

Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status - agencies

Belarus is nuclear state, nuclear iskanders and bombs will go there, b61 is target

zorobabel wrote:On EU jets to Ukraine: "Flying in #Ukraine skies within the hour." https://twitter.com/AlexandreKrausz/status/1498034918785531919

I am surprised Russia has not been able to establish total air superiority over much of the country.

Same reason why most of its forces are still outside the Ukraine

It's waiting for something

Maybe the plan is not to take all of Ukraine. Just flush out Kiev and take the east side of the country. That’s why the whole military is not involved yet.

It's confirmed that 29s are coming from Poland. At the same time there are reports of RUAF taking off from Belarus towards Ukraine.

JohninMK wrote:
You do realise how big Ukraine is and how low and from what crapping landing grounds a Il-76 can fly?

Almost impossible to stop.

Big plane, visible on sat, humint, plus many reports of it flying to Poland. It's not a fly.

This column is giving me huge incompetence vibe. In serbian army we are taught to keep about 50 m distance between vehicles, and 10 between men in column.

Regular wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

Lurk83 wrote:

Orlan wrote:Alexandre Krauss on twitter said that MiG-29s will be in Ukraine in just a few hours. Seems the Il-76 that flew from Ukraine to Poland yesterday took Ukrainian Mig pilots to pick aircraft and fly them back.

That a Ukrainian IL76 can fly freely in and out of the airspace is a massive indictment of this entire op

You do realise how big Ukraine is and how low and from what crapping landing grounds a Il-76 can fly?

Almost impossible to stop.

Big plane, visible on sat, humint, plus many reports of it flying to Poland. It's not a fly.

Not to mention Russian OTH radar and AWACS. Why aren't they doing their job?

If there were military reforms in the Russian army since 2008 you would not know it by watching this performance. Pretty embarrassing honestly. The old Soviet man in charge need to be jailed.

Orlan wrote:

This column is giving me huge incompetence vibe. In serbian army we are taught to keep about 50 m distance between vehicles, and 10 between men in column.

Yes, same here, we also were told to stagger columns what we did with our M113 during the moves, almost like infantry formation.

Russian forces should be aware that all US/NATO satellites and recon are on them and they are in the range of Ukrainian artillery.

Yeah Russia has zero chance against nato in conventional warfare. F35s would have decimated that convoy and so would just about any NATO air power.

Sign. Russians being Russians again. What a shame

Regular wrote:

Yes, same here, we also were told to stagger columns what we did with our M113 during the moves, almost like infantry formation.

Russian forces should be aware that all US/NATO satellites and recon are on them and they are in the range of Ukrainian artillery.

I remember Militarov or Militarista, not sure, posting about such things on this forum few years ago, from Serbian army. If he is watching this conflict I bet he is very angry at air defence performance, he served on Kub-s here. I came to this forum to find him or contact but with no luck.

ucmvulcan wrote:

bitcointrader70 wrote:If there were military reforms in the Russian army since 2008 you would not know it by watching this performance. Pretty embarrassing honestly. The old Soviet man in charge need to be jailed.

They are only what, 4 days into this thing now? Keep in mind Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe.  Keep in mind it took the US Army and the COW 20+ days to take a country which is only half the size of Ukraine and whose forces had been attritted and degraded by 13 years of embargo, bombardment, and having to keep the Shia and Kurds from uprising.  Ukraine? They've spent the past 8 years getting western Equipment, drilling, and training.  In four days, Russia has driven on and at least partially cut off Kiev, seized a huge bridgehead from Crimea, and the DNR and LNR have secured most of their territory.  Its going to take time.  Best case scenario, Russia is able to secure Ukraine at least east of the Dniepr in less than a week because other wise Ukraine gets a lot of mercenaries and arms shipments because NATO does not really care about Ukrainian sovereignty as they do bleeding the Russian army white.  The sooner this thing ends, the better.  The paradox here is that a quick war is going to probably cause a lot of civilian dead.  

What I’m basing my claims in is the actions of the Russian military itself. Hence above the tight convoy. Not using UAVs. Very little air support. Not using their attack drones which are perfect for situations like these. They should have CAS and air power/drones scouting ahead for ambushes and looking Ukrop artillery. If you take away the ballistic missiles and cruise missile this looks like a war from the 1960s not a modern military quite frankly.

It seems that the same problem from 2008 still exists where the Air Force is not coordinating with the ground army as was in Georgia.

From Michael Kofman on Twitter. Don't always agree with him but he is an insightful analyst. Certainly some food for thought from his points.


- Russian units are not fighting as BTGs. They’re not doing combined arms warfare. They’re driving down roads in small detachments, pushing recon and VDV units forward. Tanks without infantry. It’s not going well for them because this isn’t how they organize and fight (more later).
- Folks are taking the right lessons about Ukraine’s military from this, but a number of the wrong ones about the Russian military. This operation looks terrible, and it should, because it’s assumptions were nuts, but this isn’t the Russian mil fighting as it would against NATO.
- It’s taken me a while to figure out what they’re trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent. Ukraine’s military has done great. The Russian op is a bizarre scheme, based on terrible political assumptions, with poor relationship to their training & capabilities.
- A fight with NATO would obviously be much worse for Russia given the match up, but it wouldn’t look like this mess (probably a different kind of mess).
- Outside of the fighting NW of Kyiv we have a lot of smaller detachments, tanks, IFVs, often recon or VDV units pressing down roads & into cities. Often small formations outrunning logistics, without support, or letting support getting ambushed - its a mess.
- I know a bunch of people are going to read this and say ‘what?’ I will elaborate in a proper thread later.

Orlan wrote:

I remember Militarov or Militarista, not sure, posting about such things on this forum few years ago, from Serbian army. If he is watching this conflict I bet he is very angry at air defence performance, he served on Kub-s here. I came to this forum to find him or contact but with no luck.

Remember him, he is not a member here anymore. Well, these guys won't end up on the list here

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Seems heavy fighting is happening atm in Kharkov.

В Харьков приехал долгожданный конвой с противотанковыми NLAW, SMAW-D, Javelin, ПЗРК Stinger и другим оружием, сообщил волонтёр Роман Доник

Харьков.Главное.Политика

They claim convoy with NLAWs, SMAWs, Javelins and Stingers arrived today.

Orlan wrote:Seems heavy fighting is happening atm in Kharkov.

В Харьков приехал долгожданный конвой с противотанковыми NLAW, SMAW-D, Javelin, ПЗРК Stinger и другим оружием, сообщил волонтёр Роман Доник

Харьков.Главное.Политика

They claim convoy with NLAWs, SMAWs, Javelins and Stingers arrived today.

Not sure about the convoy, but plenty of pictures of Ukrainians running with NLAW launchers.

This happened yesterday:
Ukrainians threw a molotov cocktail on their own Tochka and burned it.
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/1736?single