Russian special military operation in Ukraine #6

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:The large Artem missile and artillery munitions factory in Kiev has reportedly been cruise missiled.

Confirmed now:

https://twitter.com/SergUA63/status/1503654678118244353?s=20&t=02sojPYUOL4o74vsLhoIkw

The American demands of China, and narratives of Russia seeking Chinese cooperation in arms etc... these are a well orchestrated, gratuitous and effective "stirring of the pot" strategy of the U.S.

The fact that people engage this from a defensive posture, both from the Russian side, and the Chinese side, as well as the sheeple that support each tells you all you need to know. The fact that you engage the narratives at all tells you the gratuitous effectiveness of just "putting it out there" as the U.S has done.

It's not dumb, it's not stupid .....far from it. It's cunning, dirty and "playing to win", against both.

Here is what the U.S gains:

Guilt by association propaganda boom.
Threat of economic pain to stress test the China-Russia relationship.
Pretexts for new sanctions regimes and provocations against China.
Test the waters to see the response of both the Chinese side and Russian side with regards to diplomatic coordination. Make note of the boundaries and discrepancies - exploit what presents itself.
Further embarrass Russia as dependent on the Chinese.
Further embarrass Russia as if the U.S is the sheriff that dictates the rules in the school yard (more so targeted at its complaint client regime allies than Russia itself, and to American allied elites in client regimes elsewhere). It's a "leadership" moment.

Potential gratuitous gains:

Any potential sowing of discord within the Chinese elites (everyone has an opinion). All the U.S needs to do is make the topic of conversation relevant for opinions to surface within the Chinese elite, even if most of the important exchange of ideas will happen behind closed doors. A lot of the elites in China are ill informed of geopolitics to a detailed extent, specially economic elites who respond to different incentives than security/political elites. It's nothing but a positive to stir the pot.

Any potential measure of restraint by the Chinese elites in their willingness to provide cover bypassing the American/EU sanctions regime on Russia.

Overall Grand Goal: Divide and conquer.

If the Chinese fall for the simple trap, it will hurt the Russia-China axis, and Russian elites will make notes of the boundaries to which cooperation, in a time of crisis, was given by the Chinese side. In other words, when the Taiwan issue explodes, Russians will simply reciprocate to the same level. The more restraint by the Chinese side now, the more Russian restraint when Taiwan explodes. The Chinese are simply being tested, and it's a big, massive test.

Any restraint by the Chinese side to aid Russia will make the "attack on China operation" more favorable for the empire and its lackies . The Tawain issue will explode, the U.S along with some lackies will recognize Taiwan independence when they deem the time is right and the stars are aligned as best as possible to push. The QUAD, the whole Europian Union, and protectorates and allied elites elsewhere will be on board, whether officially recognizing Taiwan's independence as a sovereign or waiting for China to invade to drop the pretenses to use it as an excuse while supporting the U.S behind the scenes. China will be forced to intervene militarily to take control of the territory or simply take it in the face.

The U.S will be seeking to completely isolate China from the world, disrupt (and potentially/effectively blockade) its energy imports and manufacturing exports along the first island chain, and those traveling from the M.E and elsewhere through the "Indian Ocean". The U.S will try to achieve this through a combination of both military brinksmanship, and sanctions blockable of which some Arab regimes will have to, begrudgingly get on board behind the scenes. Japan will support this, the QUAD will support this, as will the EU. This will leave China with hard choices and a disrupted and not very dependable energy supply as well as export markets. That's why they have diversified and placed many eggs in many different baskets.
But in such a scenario, which is entirely possible, which country (or bloc) can truly be dependable on both the energy front and trade....just by geography alone? Russia and Asian land routes for trade. Energy wise, mostly just Russia, and the Russian controlled Eurasian Economic Union bloc. Draw the map in your brain.

Thus, you see, just as China is Russia's strategic depth, it's even more so important for the Chinese. There is a reason why the Chinese have been bulking up their Navy at such an accelerated pace, why they're upping their defense budgets, and why they're eating all this BS that the Chinese elites would have balked on with the Soviet Union.

Supporting Russia today is part of the long game that goes into the American calculus on how strong the Chinese will be to absorb a potential attack through the Taiwan issue. If the Chinese are as good as they're made to be playing the long game  - I'm more of the opinion they're good opportunists, just like the U.S after WW2 - then they should do what's clearly expedient. You're not that good at the long game with a "century of humiliation" very fresh in your history. That doesn't mean there aren't revival periods as all great nations go through - China being an exemplary case. Russia currently being on the retreat and reorganization phase from previous highs.

Thus Misconception#1: It's a desperation move by the U.S.
(laughably wrong).

Misconception #2: "China will look to extract concessions from both the U.S and Russia".

Absolutely false. To the contrary, the U.S makes up an accusation, elevates their unilateral sanction regime to give it the aura of extra-territorial effect and threatens China to obey or else.

The Chinese stand to gain nothing that isn't lost in a bigger magnitude with the Russian side. It will simply hurt their Russia-China trade ties, as well as hurt their most important geopolitical relationship on this planet. The U.S knows what they're after, a self-defeating bullet.

With this in mind, the Sullivan meeting with the Chinese in Rome should be seen as a continuation of this strategy by the U.S. The Chinese side, exerting competence, obviously agree to get an assessment of American intentions, not just through active intelligence gathering in the U.S through their assets but also directly through the diplomatic contact means. It only helps China gauge the seriousness of the threats, the angles from which they come from etc...to better prepare responses and posture.

As to the report of Russia seeking military assistance from China being true or false.

This can be either of 3 things:

1. Totally made up fairy tale.

For the obvious reason that Russia doesn't need Chinese military assistance to crush Ukraine. Obvious restraint is being exercised, for well known and stated objectives.

2. A half truth.

Talk of deepening military coordination and of sourcing of materials from China for the Russian mic behind the scenes being presented as a crude request for military aid.

3. Total truth.

In which case, this is not a measure of Russia's need for military aid, but it should be interpreted as a Russian test of Chinese willingness to aid, and again, once more, a stress test of the relationship to see the boundaries which will be acted upon when it's Russia's turn to aid the Chinese (and that day is coming). Although I don't think it's necessary for that test to exist now as there will be several in the coming years which the Chinese will have to pass (mostly economic in nature - more important).

Officially, both Russia and China have denied the story as currently presented. Move on.

GarryB wrote:
Gonna have a prune and shift around... might take a bit, but a lot of posts might just disappear... not worth saving/moving.

Thanks Garry, things got a bit out of kilter last night.

Pleased I went to bed so missed most of it in real time, bad enough just wizzing through catching up.

I suppose it is an indication of how emotions get elevated and opinions maximised when there is something going on that really matters for all our futures. But it is no reason to crush or eliminate alternative views, let alone attack some who have been here a very long time so probably understand the ethos of the forum better than those who arrived more recently when things started heating up last year.

We need to remember that this is not a one thread/topic site.

It is, by its nature being part West and part Russian, a special space.

On the background of the formation of Ukrainian Nazism

, From an interview with historian, President of the Historical Perspective Foundation, member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation Natalia Narochnitskaya

to the newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda "Ukrainism" as a synonym for" anti-Moscow " originates in the Brest Ecclesiastical Union of 1596, when it was uniatism that began to grow an anti-Russian interpretation of Ukrainian history. Uniates are both non – Catholics and non-Orthodox, this is a Catholic dogma and submission to the Pope while preserving the Orthodox rite. In this process, Poland played a major role, claiming all of Little Russia, Kiev-the mother of Russian cities. For Poland, the Galician-Volhynian Principality captured in the XIV century by Casimir III the Great became a springboard for aspirations to the East. But these lands are the original Kievan Rus. Since then, Galicia has not shared its fate with the rest of Orthodox Little Russia. It was under Poland, then under Austria-Hungary. Between the two World Wars, Galicia was again under Poland. And not only did anti-Russian sentiments mature there , but a militant hateful attitude towards Muscovites and contempt for the mass of Orthodox Little Russians who exceeded them many times was purposefully brought up there.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was the Uniates who proclaimed themselves the only crusading church that would go on a new crusade against the Russian barbarians and the damned Katsaps – all Ukrainians loyal to the Russian Orthodox Church. Bandera members profess so-called integral nationalism, the goal of which is to create a mono – ethnic and mono-confessional nation, for which any means are suitable, and we should not stop, even if we have to kill half of those who disagree.

And what the Bandera members did is well known. For example, in Volhynia, they quartered five-year-olds. They hung them in bouquets on trees, called wreaths. Or they cut out a fetus from living pregnant women and put a live rabbit or rat in it. They hung guts on the trees. Today, the heirs of these animals are supported by the West.

The political nomenclature in Kiev immediately intercepted the Galician slogans. These things inevitably began to penetrate into the worldview, historiography. The rewriting of history has begun. First carefully, and then completely carelessly. And now it is already open, and it comes to nonsense and absurdity. Ukry, according to some historians, is the oldest nation in Europe, which founded Troy and the Cretan-Mycenaean culture ...

️ The basis of their doctrine is that we-the damned Muscovites-are a cross between Ugro-Finns and Tatars, and they are Aryans. We, in order to embellish our history, in their opinion, stole from them the chronicle of Kievan Rus, Prince Vladimir, Vladimir Monomakh. And the Byzantine heritage is not ours at all, but belongs to them. It gets to the point of absurdity. They recognize that Vladimir Monomakh is a great Ukrainian prince, and his son, Yuri Dolgoruky, is a cursed Muscovite, katsap.

The final fall of Ukraine into this abyss and the loss of control by the authorities over the Bandera members who seized the political situation occurred when a real coup d'etat was carried out after the Maidan in 2014. In Ukraine, torchlight processions with swastikas and Nazi salutes have already begun to take place annually in many cities and in Kiev, exactly repeating the processions of Fascist thugs in the early 1930s. Leaders with an active nationalist worldview, primarily anti-Russian, were sent to all Russian and Russian-speaking cities and regions. Moderates were forced out of all levels of the administration.

Russian people, especially in those parts of Ukraine where they live compactly, are depressed, intimidated, discouraged, deprived of social energy, fragmented. And the Ukrainian national feeling, which could have been the basis of prosperity, degenerated into hatred for the other, somehow got a strong trauma.

The task of our special military operation – eliminate the Bandera nest through denazification. It is necessary to save the population of Donetsk and Luhansk regions from death, which is about 4 million people.

RussianDefense Ministry briefing (15.03.2022)

️ The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have taken full control of the entire territory of the Kherson region.

The group of troops of the Donetsk People's Republic, continuing offensive operations, broke through the defense of the Ukrainian nationalists, took control of the village of Panteleimonovka and reached the VERKHNETORETSKOYE-NOVOSELOVKA-2 border.

In total, over the past day, aviation and air defense equipment of the Russian Aerospace Forces 16 air targets were shot down: one Su-24 and Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, one Mi-8 helicopter and thirteen Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, including six Bayraktar TB-2s.

Operational-tactical, army and unmanned aircraft hit 136 military facilities in Ukraine including: seven command and communication centers, four anti-aircraft missile systems, three multiple launch rocket launchers, four radar stations for reconnaissance, target illumination and targeting of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, one electronic warfare station, four ammunition depots and 72 places of accumulation of military equipment.

At a military airfield near Kramatorsk, three hangars containing four Ukrainian Su-25 attack aircraft, one Mi-24 helicopter and five Mi-8 helicopters were destroyed.

A total of 156 unmanned aerial vehicles have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation., 1,306 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 127 multiple launch rocket systems, 471 field artillery pieces and mortars, as well as 1,054 units of special military vehicles.

In the evening of March 14, near the settlement of GUTA-Mezhyhirskaya, Russian airborne troops captured a stronghold of nationalists and foreign mercenaries.

Russian paratroopers seized 10 American-made Javelin anti-tank missile systems and a number of other weapons supplied by Western countries to Ukraine.

All captured files Javelin anti-tank systems and other foreign weapons are being transferred to the People's militia units Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.

Lurk83 wrote:Someone above asked about a ground launched kalibr … it may come now the INF has been axed but it doesn’t exist yet. Closest analogue I think is iskander k /R-500 cruise missile which I believe had a range of 490km to keep it under precious INF range limits.

yep, but the fcking Murkans still lied about its range and used it as a transparent excuse to abrogate the INF treaty. Even more outrageous was that the Euro-faggot Collective echoed the murkan propaganda, even though the loss of the INF treaty seriously undermined their own security...

The more I think about it, the behaviour of the Euro-peons over the Ukraine fiasco from 2004 till the present is hardly surprising given their past ample evidence of steroid-enhanced submissive cuckoldery...

For the evacuation of civlians from Mariupol

Supposedly a decoy of an Iskander missile

Large convoy moving along a highway in western Belarus

Airbornewolf wrote:

Perhaps its real, i just have reservations how some things appear to look in the vid.
they look wrong to me. But ill let it go after this post. i promise .

I also tried to look up the gunner view of the BTR 4 and an manual if they can indeed over-ride certain settings in the fire control station.

In 2 Demos online the BTR-4 shows an clear ammo counter and the sliders during testing in indonesia and Ukraine.
cant find the manual, so i can not be sure what the gauges exactly mean.
the text on the right side is the munition counter and selection anyway.

In the Ukraine footage they are all empty.

I absolutely understand your reservation towards what we see or get delivered.
There indeed some details like the ammunition counter and the shadows from the poles and power lines. To me they look a bit pixelated, but I have not watched the video in the desktop version, so there is that.

The ammunition counter might be showing zero because this Video was recorded and later watched on either different vehicle or same vehicle and the ammunition counter or the entire "HUD" is off the current setup after it was brought back from the front lines.

The image of the power lines and the poles that are casting shadow looks weird, but IR images are always subject to image processing and it is often achieved in different ways. But overall I would say that shit is real and I do not see obvious details that would be a hint to be fake.

To compare this with the downed Mi-24 with a weird camo, weird flight pattern of MANPAD and the "blobby" textures of the surroundings compared to the absolute highly detailed smoke and fire is a little hint. CGI or rendered Videos try to avoid to much processing/rendering time by keeping a high detailed focus on only important objects/scenes. You also don't see much movement of trees, but I would have to rewatch the video again to make more claims.

Random pics

More trophies

John Mersheimer gets it...  Its too bad that more US/EU "elites" don't have even a fraction of this mans deep understanding of big power politics. If they did, this shit would not be happening.

Arkanghelsk wrote:https://t.me/istorijaoruzija/44029

These su25s are flying low over Donetsk

Breakthroughs are made across the lines

This is going to be the biggest clash so far, for sure. Those lines are no joke.

Apart from Su-25s, lots of Mi-28s are engaged and I wouldn't be surprised if large scale high altitude bombing occurs, eg by Tu-22Ms.

Since the LDNR guys are running the ground ops, there will be more material to analyze as well.

Russian MOD published a video showing people evacuating Mariupol. The situation is dire for civilians.

You can turn on autotranslation as there are no subtitles.

Azi wrote:US and western deep states are utilizing western media to spread panic among russians. Fake news isn't just for Western audiences it's also for 5. column in Russia...the brain washed  idiots consuming western media shit and lies.

As I wrote ... the whole conflict is not about Ukraine, but about Russia! Regime change in Moscow is the ultimate goal of the United States.

Russia recentely passed a law that up to 15 years of prison for fabricating fake news and result was that Dozhd' the western bitch MSM openly announced that they can not work further under this law and would have to report on dogs the weather and stuff. They can not work because all the shit they make is 180° what reality is. If you want to come close to truth then you just need to assume exact opposite of western MSM and you will be on the correct path already. From there you can make valid researches for yourself to find out the closest information to truth.

ALAMO wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
No-one is going to drag NATO into a war with Russia.

You are most probably right, still, that is not an obstacle for trying, right ?
The comedy show played by Ukros is rising new levels each day.
Pitty that the comic hetman stopped calling US/NATO covards&impotents, that was both funny and worked the opposite I guess

As zelensky gets more desperate and Ukraine loses more troops and land the provocations will get more intense and wild. They won't stop. However NATO will never get involved. Only more weapons, money and aid will be sent along with further condemnation. That's all.

Updates

1) Lukashenka says Tochka ballistic missile was launched towards Belarus from Ukraine, but it was intercepted

2) 2 Russian missiles targeted airport in Dnipro city, terminal is damaged, runway destroyed

3) President Zelensky signed a law on criminal responsibility of cooperation with Russia

4) Foreign Minister Wang Yi warns China does not want to be impacted by economic sanctions on Russia, state media says, as pressure grows on Beijing to withdraw support from Moscow. "China is not a party to the crisis, still less wants to be affected by the sanctions"

5) Russian ministry of Defense in morning briefing claims control over Panteliymonivka in Donetsk region, and reaching Verkhnotoretske and Novoselivka Druha

6) An AusAirforce C-17A Globemaster III aircraft has delivered another load of defensive military assistance supplies to a European airport for forward movement to the Ukrainian Government

7) Operational information from the General Staff:In the South Bug direction, Russian army is trying to gain a foothold in the areas of Tomina Balka, Nadezhdivka, Kiselivka, Pervomaisk, Mykhailo-Larine, Ulyanivka, Pisky, Dobre, Snihurivka, Arkhangelske, Zagradivka, Osokorovka, Berislav, Kakhovka

8 ) Operational information from the General Staff: In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, Russian army fighting with certain forces in the areas of the settlements of Borova, Ternove, Novokrasnyanka, Luhanske, Horlivka, Panteleimonivka, Mykilske, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Kamyanske

9) Operational information from the General Staff: In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian army does not stop trying to surround Sumy and conducts hostilities in the areas of Svatove, Izyum, Hrushevakha, Petrovske, Husarivka, Balakliya, Liman, Malinovka, Kochetok, Bezruky, Oleksandrivka, Velyka Pisarivka, Tarashivka, Nesarivka, Oleshnya. Talalaivka

10) Operational information from the General Staff: In the northern direction, Russian army is fighting in the areas of the settlements of Lyubech, Slavutych, Kovryta, Zolotynka, Mena, Branytsia, Kalita, Bogdanovka, Lukash, Romny, Nedrigailiv.

11) Operational information from the General Staff: In the Polissya direction, the Russian army forces are fighting in the areas of the settlements of Poliske, Kropyvnya, Zakharivka, Oliva, Sloboda, Kukharska, Zhovtneve, Ozershchyna, Lypivka, Kopyliv, Motyzhyn, Buzova, Horenychi, Bucha, Demydiv