Russian special military operation in Ukraine #24

par far wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:If shit hits the fan in Azerbaijan i hope that first order of business for Russia is to erase BTE. Always kill two flies with one shot.

What is BTE?

sepheronx wrote:

crod wrote:

billybatts91 wrote:

I'm pro-Russian but come on....we need to face reality here. You're talking about 30 countries + Ukraine vs. Two (Russia and Belarus). They have a lot of money, a lot of people and a lot of sophisticated weaponry. No single country could go up against something like that, I'm just being realistic, that assessment has nothing to do with what has happened in Kharkov recently. Without nukes, Russia would be screwed.

it's not as simple as that:
1. The Ukraine is not a member of NATO, therefore under the charter they cannot just jump in all guns blazing. It is one of the reasons why Russia attacked because membership was becoming a thing, post membership, Russia would be screwed because they couldn't attack a NATO member. The clock was ticking;
2. It's the last thing on the mind of any country for the simple reason it would very likely bring us closer to WW3 and the destruction of the planet;
3. They don't need to get full on involved (which they cannot), they 're causing headaches as it is from afar with political, $$$ and military support.

When the conflict began Putin on television made remarks about red lines this and red lines that. He honored none of them. The West saw this rightly as weakness and this has confounded some of the problems we are seeing today particularly is some of the systems now being delivered to the Ukraine.

Again for whatever reason unknown to any of us here, they have supported that region with very little, it was to the detriment of allied forces in the region. Had they supported it with the likes of what they have in Kherson the outcome would have been different; but they didn't, so postcards to the Kremlin for a please explain as you, me and the world are now scratching their heads asking plainly, WTF?

Or it is and I'm not discrediting FP's thoughts on all this are and that it is part of the plan...I hope he is right but the optics look poor right now and took the shine of the Uki losses down south imo.

I'll give you a theory that has floated around among various groups I have read and something I was thinking too.

So Ukraine threw a large force, we are talking about roughly +30K worth of troops and a lot of them were more of Ukraine's best and lots of mercenaries.  So the idea is that since Kharkov is right near Belgorod, its much easier to spearhead a larger force to strike at it as seen previously.  So for awhile, Ukraine kept talking up this massive attack on Kherson to take it back and while they claimed 1M men which never came to be, they still accumulated a rather large and strong force.  The idea may be that if the full 30K of better trained units in Ukraine decided to attack Kherson, it would be a major problem for Russia since trying to flood units into Kherson may be harder for Russia than it would be to Kharkov from Belgorod.  So Ukraine decided to take the bait that FP is saying by letting their units split in half and try for the quick victory as Kharkov only had Rosgvardi protecting it.  Kherson was a bloodbath for Ukraine and thus was a pathetic show for Ukraine.  But Kharkov was Ukraines victory for now.  Kherson as Alamo pointed out, is far more important for Russia than Kharkov is right now.  Things will change.

Try not to fall into the trap of what the other idiots here are screeching.  Arkanghelsk is a terrible person and horrible poster as many have pointed out.  I am certain he is actually a she.  Sounds like a particular telegram channel head who banned me for pointing out the hysterics.  None of these fools have info whats going on.  They claim they do but they do not.

caveat emptor wrote:

flamming_python wrote:In Kharkov Russia decided to withdraw instead, why - we'll find out soon enough. But that doesn't abrogate what happened north of Kherson.

When do you reckon we'll know, oracle?

billybatts91 wrote:You're that dumb to believe what you just wrote lol. Nice fantasy, holy cow.

caveat emptor wrote:Destroy BTE and push Europe to worse situation, plus leave  Aliyev without money to wage war.
Also Turkey gets fucked in the process.

flamming_python wrote:
My thinking is more that it's to lull the Ukrainians into a false sense of security and embolden them
1st offensive in Kherson they were pulverized
2nd offensive they were allowed to occupy that territory, although still taking large losses
And now the Ukrs, buoyed on by triumphalism in their own and Western media, are going to follow that up with more offensives and all sorts of innovations. And get pulverized again.
Encouraging them into these attacks shortens the war for Russia and decimates their manpower

ALAMO wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
My thinking is more that it's to lull the Ukrainians into a false sense of security and embolden them
1st offensive in Kherson they were pulverized
2nd offensive they were allowed to occupy that territory, although still taking large losses
And now the Ukrs, buoyed on by triumphalism in their own and Western media, are going to follow that up with more offensives and all sorts of innovations. And get pulverized again.
Encouraging them into these attacks shortens the war for Russia and decimates their manpower

There are reports incoming, that there were no Russian forces in the Charkov direction for a while now. Only blocking forces.
The main strengths were withdrawn a while ago.
Again : where to?

caveat emptor wrote:

ALAMO wrote:
But he has a good point, c_e.
If one follows the propaganda narrative, it is getting stronger and stronger.
And this is what some of you are doing, pretending to be worried so much
No, Ukrs didn't "won the Kievan battle". There was no such a battle.
No, Ukrs didn't "won the Irpen/Bucha/Hostomel" battles. There were no such battles other than Russkie beating their arses hard back in Feb/March.
There was a Mariopol siege, where 1:2 outnumbered Russkie shredded them to pieces.
There was a "Cherson offensive" where again they get their arses torn apart by the Russkies.
There was a big "Zaporozhe operation", where they had their arses fucke@d hard by the Russkies.
There is an operation in Donbas, where they are losing the strongpoints one after another, with the national guard already sneaking into Artemovsk suburbs yesterday.
And last but not least there was no "battle for charkovschina", as the Russkie withdraw from that direction wit no casualties, leading the civilian evacuation.
And I have an interesting observation.
Have you watched the material and how they are bringing the supplies and reinforcement with all they have, including Mi-26s?
Well, this material looked so staged and fake, that roars out off the screen. It was my very first impression - there is nothing that matches together there, just a show.
They didn't bring any serious reinforcements into the theatre.
Still , the VO group is obviously going somewhere.
Those echelons full of brand new 80BVMs and 90Ms are going somewhere.
Those columns of artillery, whole trains loaded with Uragans are going somewhere.
Where is "somewhere"?

We will see. I don't have any problems with what you said. Still, i will not go with the story of " infinite wisdom " of Russian planning, same as i didn't go with the story of great Ukrainian victories. My thinking from the beginning was that someone fucked up. With the information i have ( which is not much) i go with most obvious choice. As for the war itself, in my opinion, biggest obstacle is  Russian army deficiencies in planning or waging war or resistance of Ukrainian army, but politicians and what i call institutional rot. That's all. 
Let's not our waiting for counteroffensive turn into Poroshenko's "два тижня". And when and if something happens we proclaim victory. That's why i asked when. If you come with such theory, ballpark timeline should be  given.

caveat emptor wrote:
We will see. I don't have any problems with what you said. Still, i will not go with the story of " infinite wisdom " of Russian planning, same as i didn't go with the story of great Ukrainian victories. My thinking from the beginning was that someone fucked up. With the information i have ( which is not much) i go with most obvious choice. As for the war itself, in my opinion, biggest obstacle is  Russian army deficiencies in planning or waging war or resistance of Ukrainian army, but politicians and what i call institutional rot. That's all. 
Let's not our waiting for counteroffensive turn into Poroshenko's "два тижня". And when and if something happens we proclaim victory. That's why i asked when. If you come with such theory, ballpark timeline should be  given.

caveat emptor wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
Azerbaijan is a sideshow

Erdogan simply draws attention to himself at each critical juncture between Russia and the West in an attempt to wrest out concessions here and there for his own little sphere of influence

Iran can handle things there but certainly the CSTO should be called to show the Azeris that they're pressing their luck.

There's no sideshows. This is a total war, so you act accordingly. It is also a good opportunity to give a lesson to Erdogan, as he again is starting to raise his head a little too much and his dog Aliyev. 
If Russia puts this thing on the backburner, main  initiative will be on Lukashenko who is a fox and that pos Tokayev, i wouldn't bet my house on CSTO.

thegopnik wrote:keep in mind media is spreading BS about gas prices going lower while their media censors these protests. https://mobile.twitter.com/SNMilitary/status/1569112804321562624