Russian special military operation in Ukraine #27

sundoesntrise wrote:Is there trouble brewing between Wagner Group and the Russian MoD?

CONFIRMED. Long history of authority undermining, harsh posts on the Wagner moderated TG groups. Also confirmed, Prigozhin's open criticism of the Russia MoD after the fall of Krasiy Liman. Also confirmed, Prigozhin's left hand Slobodenyuk arrested by the FSB. Allegedly for critizing Russian Military leadership. Video can be found online.

One of the Wagner groups' and senior confidant of Prigozhin, Aleksey Slobodenyuk was arrested by the FSB earlier in Moscow under the war time legislation for critcising the armed forces.

Reading between the line, it is speculated he was orchestrating the online criticism of senior members of the Russian military/siloviki via a network of Wagner linked telegram groups.

The fact the FSB filmed and released as well to demonstrate the arrest is something to ponder as well

And then we have this. UNCONFIRMED. A video from allegedly recently drafted Russian soldiers complaining about lack of everything, and how the Russian leadership is letting them rot...

https://mobile.twitter.com/markito0171/status/1577724987934666752

However, as someone in the comments section points out, some of them are wearing Wagner patches. Does this mean Prigozhin is running some sort of disinformation campaign against the Russian MoD?



Does Prigozhin have political ambitions?

Genuine question, so only genuine answers.

Gib sources, pls. Last two weeks have been a flood of "Russia infighting, losing ground, putin in trouble" videos and posts. Now with all good propaganda there are I assume some serious kernels of truth. The issue is I dont believe anything out of the western media, because even the kernels of truth have serious missing context. The best propaganda is like this. Worse, you are providing twitter tweets as sources.

So please, give me your sources. Remember that infighting and ultimate regime change is the only way the west wins. You are very critical of Russian sources but show an incredible lack of critique of any kind of western propaganda.

Backman wrote:Something encouraging

By @стршеэдды:

"Russia is going to war. I would like to note that the preparation of Mob is in full swing. Maybe not everywhere, but in those places where I visit, the exercises are held as close as possible to the combat ones and the instructors are people who came directly from the front line. The men are in a great mood."

unfortunately, one such message accounts for several cases of blatant disorganization. At the moment, it is obvious that the country has not been able to effectively mobilize only 300,000 people for the war.

Russia is either waiting for very strong changes and reforms - or a military defeat in the war with the West. I hope for the former.

The obvious reason why ka-52 is preffered in a manpad saturated environment is because it has ejection seats and therefor best crew survivability. Also why send a chopper when cheap mortars can do the job. I see a bunch of Ukrainian vehicles on fire and somebody complains about mi-28 not destroying them. Makes 0 Sense to me.

ALAMO wrote:
What percentage of the mobilization is the one that faces fuckups?

I can't say the exact percentage, since this is the topic of a whole study. However, from the information I'm facing now:
1. Mass brawl with servicemen in Alabino.
2. The death of several mobilized in training centers.
3. Several cases of conflict with officers: in one of them there was a mass appeal to the prosecutor's office after the colonel told the mobilized "We will not train you, we are recruiting meat."
4. Video from the train with the mobilized, who were given weapons, and then abandoned - no money, no food, no uniforms, the train has been standing for two weeks. We have several hundred hungry, angry people who have military weapons in their hands and who were simply thrown into the field.
5. I was not personally a witness, but I received information from friends that at least one case when a conscript and a deceased at the front were returned three weeks after the draft, of which TWO were not taken up by the delivery of the body to relatives.
6. Also, according to information from friends from the LPR /DPR, I have information that the real losses of the allies are from 20,000 to 30,000 KIA at the moment. I cannot assess their reliability, I transmit only the data that I have been informed.
7. I also know an example when a soldier who has been fighting at the front for 7 months, who was wounded, and is currently undergoing treatment, received the following news: a) as soon as he is cured, he will be sent to the front line again, b) about a third of the monetary payments of one and a half million rubles have mysteriously disappeared somewhere, that is, about half a million of this amount will not be paid to him.
8. One of the mobilized, to whom I, as part of the community, am now helping with money to collect equipment, confirms that: a) almost all equipment has to be purchased independently; b) prices for necessary goods in stores have soared several times (growth coefficients range from x2-x3 to x7-x8 depending on the category of goods).
9. In fact, from the environment I know, only 2-3 people are sent to the front. Everyone else is fleeing abroad, hiding or otherwise looking for a way to avoid mobilization. All this distrust of the current government, its management methods and military leadership is argued. Simply put, people for the most part are sure of only two things: a) the authorities will betray at the first opportunity, b) Mobilization is designed to fill up the corpses with obvious gross mistakes of the command, that is, the mobilized are potential corpses. What follows is a simple chain of logical reasoning: "I don't want to die for the interests of a bunch of rich bastards who negotiate with the Nazis, throw ordinary people to death and generally demonstrate in every possible way that they pursue their own interests (mainly economic)".

I am now talking only about what I observe around me, using only facts and examples that are known to me.

P.S. Also I have to add my observations:
1. Society turned out to be very disorganized and divided.
2. Nevertheless, the main assistance to the front throughout its entire course comes from spontaneous public volunteer movements that help soldiers on the front line as much as they can. Assistance with money, equipment, moral support is all the result, first of all, of the self-organization of Russian society, and not the activities of officials.
3. The people who refuse to defend the country and run away are mostly those who in this very country had far from an average standard of living, but much higher. Those who received hundreds of thousands and millions of rubles a month mostly shy away from mobilization, preferring that simpler guys die for their comfortable life. This is a VERY bad indicator, which can lead to a civil war. The Russian people may soon raise the question of the relevance of capitalism again - after all, socialism, with all its distortions demonstrated earlier, was a MUCH more just society.

There might be another set of reasons. Like I said, it is a marathon and not a sprint and globally a lot is going on right now. It's all connected but a very big complex puzzle. I doubt the back-channel threats on nuclear deterrence have much to do with it.

- The US financial system has always been strongly dependent on their position of maintaining dominance and influence.
- That being said, they just breached the 31 trillion debt ceiling; the trend is actually spiraling.
- You can only sustain this - even as there are limits - if you have a competitive industry and this is tough with green energy policies, rising energy costs.
- Various large international banks are not doing great; Credit Suisse is about to collapse and so does Deutsche Bank; fully relying on derivates that have lost much if not most of their value in a low performing economy.
- The Chinese economy is not doing well either; people not able to access their funds anymore and various construction projects / funds and investments writing extremely red numbers.
- We all know how fucked the EU is right now, with 50% of nuclear energy in maintenance mode, dependency on Russian gas to deliver competitive pricing with industry and politically too embedded with US/Nato policies in order to bounce back.
- The OPEC decision to cut oil production just pushed everyone a bit further towards the cliff.

I think we are getting closer to a massive collapse of the financial system in result impacting the global population; countries defaulting, uprisings, and so forth. So is it really important, at this stage, to go all in for a few territories while you also have to manage your existing Russian territory. I don't know if that would be a smart move right now.

On the Chinese relationship:
The Chinese have always been culturally very opportunistic and calculated people. They are not there to make friends but to make money and understand the game of bigger fish eating the smaller fish. Any deal they make is from the standpoint of advancing themselves, not to advance, support or help others. It's culturally embedded and the moment they see a better opportunity they'll go for it.

ALAMO wrote:Part of these points are irrelevant and is happening daily basis.
Yes, people do die on maneuvers. Unbelievable! Shock&panic!
You have no idea what a commanding officer can say to the contract soldiers yet the conscripts
All "I haven't seen this but..." is nothing more than spreading bullshit.
When I was saying what are the results of calling mobilization, you were among those who could not get that it means the mass flow of a work force.
Thousands of people will flee to avoid mobilization, and that is perfectly fine.
Till now, millions left Ukraine.
Now we have thousands running from Russia.
Nothing unexpected here if one has at least two brain cells.
Out of your points, the only one really disturbing is a train left in field, but what you are saying already does not matches the real picture.
I watched it.
Unfortunately
They are all equipped and with uniforms, to begin with.
Even if they have arms, in most cases they are out of ammo, as that is an usual practice in any army. Ammunition is being given to the soldiers only in separate cases, to avoid incidents.

Again.
Russkie are doubling the land forces in a matter of month, with the first waves of recruits already reaching the frontline back in the republics for advance training in 2 weeks.
The mobilization is mass, and goes reasonably smooth considering there is not a state of war announced, nor martial law.
Recruits are being equipped, there are some incidents where the warehouses are out of uniforms they should have, so the prosecution has already started.
They are being armed, with a brand new weapon - lots of materials where they have AK12 in hands as individual weapon.
We can spread a shit like "they were left for starving", but that does not adds with the fact that all of them parade with individual MRE packages in hands, full of those.
And we have tons of footage how they are being welcomed and fed by the local population on the run.
It is just a matter of organization, and I am quite surprised how well it goes.
But that is only because I am not devoted for searching every single guy who will upload a TikTok with his tears how there is nobody to whipe his nose and he needs to sleep on the floor. He will miss the floor quite soon, in the tranches.

such an approach has already led to retreats and abandonment of territories. You suggest continuing to close your eyes with your palms. As for the rest, I'm talking about cases that have signs of authenticity, and not about some random rumors. I get all this information from people who are not noticed in spreading false data. As for the case with the train, in which you expressed doubt, a confirmation and a message appeared in many telegrams of the channels that the military prosecutor's office was involved in the investigation of the situation.

https://t.me/sskarnaukhov/29710

https://t.me/ztv_247/969


One of the State Duma committees became interested in the problems of mobilization:
https://t.me/mig41/21128

CCP understands just like they always have that killing and winning are the only currencies and that should Russia at any point start doing anything other than winning they will drop them cold just like they did during Cold War

USA was killing and winning, USSR was pussyfooting and losing so Chinese chose wisely and logically

This struggle is strictly Russian, if they really think that they are not completely alone in this then they haven't thought this through

I disagree... China understands perfectly there are two options... Russia and the US... Russia represents a future where China can have any political system they want and have a foreign policy they want and keep their own culture, as long as they follow international rules... the US represents a future where Chinese will eventually be melted down to Chinese American, where they will become a "democracy" and anything of value will be put up for sale to the highest bidder because such a circumstance always benefits the country that mass prints its own money in enormous volumes.

India is realising how controlling the US is too with CATSA and plenty of other BS as well...

Most of the rest of the world is just watching but interestingly not supporting the west unless directly bullied over it.

If true then Russians are just being pussies again like Soviets before them and they will end up just like Soviets

Last time I checked Russia also has nukes hence they don't need to give a shit about any nuke threats and should always be ready to use them liberally and generously same as USA has been since 1945

Their job is to enforce Russian national interests not to waste time worrying about world peace and other hippie bullshit

The problem for Russia is they are rational and not currently very desperate... Putin knows the use of nuclear weapons means we all lose... the US is over 31 trillion in debt and taking no steps to fix that... sounds like they have given up and are hoping for a different type of solution.

The US is irrational and getting more and more desperate all the time... suicide might be an option for them... mostly those who think they can win a nuke war or keep it located in Europe.

The US and the west might rather be dead than poor, so Putin is being careful... which is not the same as being weak or stupid...

unfortunately, one such message accounts for several cases of blatant disorganization. At the moment, it is obvious that the country has not been able to effectively mobilize only 300,000 people for the war.

Even during the cold war there were three echelons of mobilisations... the first echelon were ready to go in service people, but the second echelon would take a month to get ready for the fight and the third echelon would probably take 6 months after that because everything was in storage.

Expecting near instant mobilisations is ridiculous... this current Orc surge is 7 months in to the war... if mobilisations could be fast don't you think they would have done this in the first two months?

The obvious reason why ka-52 is preffered in a manpad saturated environment is because it has ejection seats and therefor best crew survivability.

The Ka-52 has ball turrets under the body of the aircraft near the main undercarriage when that is deployed designed to defeat IR guided MANPADS and its seems to be effective...

On the Chinese relationship:
The Chinese have always been culturally very opportunistic and calculated people. They are not there to make friends but to make money and understand the game of bigger fish eating the smaller fish. Any deal they make is from the standpoint of advancing themselves, not to advance, support or help others. It's culturally embedded and the moment they see a better opportunity they'll go for it.

They are not idiots though... they buy a lot of energy from Russia so screwing Russia would be incredibly damaging to their future growth... as it is about to be for Europe...

When I mention to people Europe and the US are bastards they always say, yeah they have done bad things but you can't trust Russia or China... but when I ask why they never back it up with anything.

The other difference is that the US and west are trying to rule the world, while Russia and China are not.

Out of your points, the only one really disturbing is a train left in field, but what you are saying already does not matches the real picture.
I watched it.

It is funny because things repeat... in the west it is said that Russian conscripts got locked up in cattle wagons going to the front and the story goes that a couple were left at sidings and were forgotten about and when they were finally discovered and opened they were all dead... and there were fingernail scratch marks on the inside of the locked doors and there was evidence of cannibalism.... blah blah blah.

Enemy at the Gate... that western movie about Stalingrad showed that old chestnut where one guy gets a rifle and one guy gets a 5 round clip... that never happened.

Stalingrad was a trap... Soviet forces were deliberately trickle fed from one side of the river into the city so the Germans gradually progressed capturing the city... when soldiers got to the other side of the river there were stacks of weapons because every new soldier brought a new gun but after they died they didn't need it any more. The buildings they were defending they would prepare a dozen shooting positions each and leave guns and ammo at each position so they could move from position to position without having to drag weapons and grenades around with them... the only times there were supply problems was that brief period when ice started flowing down the river so boats couldn't cross and trucks couldn't cross either... a couple of times some units were sent over rapidly but even in those cases it was described as one in ten soldiers didn't have a rifle... there would be stacks of weapons when they got to the other side.

A lot of the other things like running out of cruise missiles and artillery shells... a long war being a problem... these are issues HATO has with its wars... they couldn't fight like this because their countries would get bored...

ALAMO wrote:Maybe they did, but that does not change the fact that you are saying things that are not true.
They all were wearing uniforms, to begin with.
What is the purpose of that, other than spreading panic&bullshit?
Watching the same story on 10 TG channels won't make it tenfold. It is just the same single incident.

handing out weapons to a drunk, apparently, is also untrue, isn't it?
https://t.me/natalia_maximus_ZOV/4051

By the way, why did you cling to the fact that there are people in uniform in the video? Firstly, they are in DIFFERENT uniforms. Secondly, they have already been mobilized and received weapons - if one of them was not provided with a uniform, they were forced to buy it with their own money. The fact of violations has already been officially confirmed, and it is officially stated that the military prosecutor's office is engaged in this.

One more unfounded accusation of lying in my direction - and you will be the first participant whom I will block on this forum. Even Vann7 has not achieved this until now.

The Cossacks of the 208th regiment launched a hard counterattack on the enemy. From Kremennaya, they advanced 6 kilometers towards Krasny Liman, knocking out Ukrainian troops from Dibrov. The reliability of the information is confirmed by the headquarters of the Cossacks.
https://t.me/intelslava/38433

Russian planes are "shit" as some already write, just as the Russians are "paper tigers". Why is there no Russian counterattack, why are the Russians fighting like "pussies", why is China turning its back on Russia...In short, Russia is losing both Putin and the Russian MOD do not know what they are doing.....
I admit that now the SMO seems painful to watch, but I don't think we have come anywhere near the end of the SMO and that the Russians are losing the war.
If the above were to happen, which I strongly doubt, I would publicly apologize on the forum to all the panickers.
The West will only succeed in one thing, that is, it will lead Russia into an even bloodier war, and I have no doubt that many Russians will still suffer, but not nearly as much as Ukroshitstan fighters.
Before the SMO began, Russia was under sanctions for 8 years, those sanctions that the West always introduced before a conflict against a country (Russia) began.
Unfortunately, I fear that all that is happening now will only get worse. The West has no brakes, so it seems to me that Russia will loosen its brakes over time.
The sick ideas and plans of the West to remove Putin from power (their number one priority), as they did with Saddam, Gaddafi and our Milošević, are trying to be implemented in the case of Russia.
The Western idea to judge Russia like Serbia, that is Milosevic, and to accuse Russia of being a genocidal nation defies logic.
In that case, the West would demand that Russia lose its right to VETO in the UN General Assembly, as well as that Russia, as a "genocidal" state, remain without nuclear weapons. Russia and the Russian people would be condemned worse than any people throughout history.
All this would inevitably lead to the collapse of Russia and the complete victory of the West, as well as the fact that the whole world would lose - not only Russia.

Do you really believe in all that I wrote above ?

I do not believe in this development of events, so it seems to me that we are entering an even worse period. There will be blood, a lot of your blood - fighters of Ukroshitstan.
Z !

How is mobilization progressing?

kvs wrote:Mercouris is trying to figure out why Russia is letting the Kiev regime forces gain ground without any push-back.   He notes that it is
strange that Russia has not been in a rush to deploy its reserves.

Maybe it has something to do with all the nuclear weapons threats from NATzO through the back channels and including the brainwashing
of NATzO residents with propaganda about Russian nuclear threats.   I think NATzO is desperate and ignorant enough to try to use nukes against
Russian forces in Ukraine.   This may sound wildly detached from reality, but not all that we see and think we understand is all of what
is going on.  

What happened is the plan changed. As plans normaly do in wartime. There was a plan to lure the UkroNazis out of the cities, trade territory for a lot of kills. Then at some point make a relatively small counter-offensive to crush the remaining forces and move towards Kharkov and Nikolaev.

But the mood in the public changed, it became clear to even the last Russian that this is an existencial war with brain-dead morons in Washington and Brussels. So the decision was made in the Kremlin to incorporate the 4 regions, following the law strictly, and mobilize for a big offensive. This takes some time, the MoD has to change a lot of orders and bring every piece of the puzzle into place.

https://sonar21.com/more-military-and-economic-considerations-in-ukraine/

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/10/double-whammy-from-larry.html

Gennady Zyuganov:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:How is mobilization progressing?

Currently, 200,000 people are reported to be mobilized, so the first wave of mobilization may be over by mid-October. By December, the troops in the combat zone will receive replenishment, thus.
However, it is most likely that the mobilization will not end there, and there will be further waves, since about 500,000 people are needed to achieve parity, and about a million for a successful offensive.

Russia's fight against the NATO pact seems to be the development of events in this video.
In the video, the NATO vulture (USA) appears first, followed by all the other NATO vultures - the bear is patiently waiting for them.
So cross the line, fags..!!!

ALAMO wrote:

And again, this is something clearly&openly stated from the official Russian sources just from the beginning.
But the crying pussies don't hear what the people in charge had to say, are saying, and will say.
Because the point is not to have any answers, but to spread panic and own delusions.
Some random guy on TG/Twitter/whatever is making his own points, framing the Russian policy into that frames, and trying to recon up from his own delusions
If the actions do not match - then the whole yapping and crying starts about zhrada and Putin chuino.
From the very beginning, the stance of official Russian policy was clear: the longer the conflict will last, the bigger will be pain&sorrow for the Ukros.
What started as a political struggle to implement a Minsk agreements, and retaining the statehood and territorial integrity of the Ukro state, turned into war operation to recapture the republics and destroy the military potential of the Ukropistan.
As the Ukros were retaliating, and the NATO involvement became open&clear, operation was scaled up, and nobody mentions the territorial integrity of the Ukro state anymore.
What's more, signals from Moscow are clear - the longer it will take, the more serious weapon will be provided to the Ukrs - the bigger buffer zone will be established.
Situation is evolving, and we know now that there will be no territorial integrity of the Ukro state as stand firm back in let's say January.
Now we are only talking about the end of the Russian thirst.

It was because of people like you that all the failures at the front occurred: because of those who tried to keep silent about errors, because of those who provided incorrect data, because of those who did not want to change anything in their cozy little world full of corruption.

And now, when the real problems of mobilization have surfaced, when the state's UNPREPAREDNESS for the current situation has been revealed, you continue to shout that everything is fine. In fact, ignoring the current reality now means letting the Ukrainians and their Washington masters kill as many Russians as possible. Are you fighting on the side of Ukraine?

The current mobilization is not only being carried out badly, but also
1. It is being carried out with a great delay.
2. Conducted on an insufficient scale. I have already written above that in order to defeat the Ukrainian army in the current conditions, about a million active personnel trained in combat operations are needed. And I CAN'T understand why not now mobilize, for example, 600-800 thousand, of which 300 thousand will be sent to the combat zone, and the rest will be sent to military courses lasting 4-6 months. So the state will have a strategic reserve of 300-500 thousand COMBAT-ready troops, which is NOT available now.
Moreover, these measures should have been taken even BEFORE the start of the special operation, but this was not done. And this is an indicator of the level of incompetence of the military leadership responsible for the strategic plans of the special operation.