Russia and economic war by the west #3

All rankings of countries by oil reserves are mostly BS.

Saudi Arabia's reserves have shown a phony constant value for decades with some token jumps.  Their main resource, by far, is Ghawar which
is nearing end of life.  It is not going to be going strong for another century.  

Russia's oil ranking is based on BS low-ball numbers from Russia itself.   Ask this simple question:  how can Russia have the same oil reserves
as Kuwait?   That's right, it has vastly more.

I would say that production rates are a good indicator of actual reserves.   Russia has been able to maintain 10 million barrels per day for years,
which is very close to Saudi Arabia.   The US has been surging to 13 million barrels per day on non-conventional plays.  Russia has not even
engaged its non-conventional plays.

China and Russia are not going to attack the Falklands Islands to steal the oil from the British... the only reason they (the British) are interested in the islands to begin with is its strategic location and potential for mineral resources and fishing resources...

The Russians and Chinese are interested because of their strategic location and mineral resources not to mention fishing resources, but want Argentina to benefit rather than the British... who have made Russia and China their sworn enemies... by choice.

Having said that when Argentina wake up and join BRICS then Russia and China could help them recover their lost territory... right now it is British territory because might is right... well helping Argentina bring up its economy and boost its military without damaging its economy would allow it to contest ownership of the islands again I suspect... the money and time it would take for the UK to tap into those resources and generate enough money to recover their own economy and build up defences gives Argentina quite a window of opportunity...

In a western dominated rules based world you have to look carefully at economic ratings and reserve estimates because most of them are bullshit... and AAA rated America will tell you otherwise... but don't believe them.

 Russia has not even engaged its non-conventional plays.

Before that there is a lot of oil located in the seas surrounding Russia.
They only started the developing of those oil and gas deposits.

https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-02-26/the-kremlin-has-a-plan-confiscate-and-conquer.html

The Central Bank of Russia introduced the so-called Type C accounts at the beginning of the war “to prevent the withdrawal of funds and assets from Russia by residents of hostile countries.” Transactions between residents and non-residents were transferred to these accounts in order to keep that money in Russia until further notice. Among other restrictions, a ban was placed on the withdrawal of funds obtained from the sale of a company without the express authorization of the Ministry of Finance.

State news agency Ria Novosti estimated recently that Western assets in Russian accounts are valued at about $288 billion. However, they are numbers that must be read with caution: of the $223 billion attributed to European countries, $98.3 billion come from Cyprus, a favorite tax haven for super wealthy Russians. The oligarchs are currently using the island to evade some of the West’s sanctions on them. Conversely, Germany — Russia’s major trading partner until Putin invaded Ukraine — only has about $17.3 billion of trapped assets.

On April 25, 2023, one year and two months after launching his offensive on Ukraine, Putin signed a decree authorizing his government to “temporarily” take the helm of foreign companies’ assets in Russia. Also on that day, the federal agency for the management of state property, Rosimushchestvo, replaced the directors of two energy companies — the subsidiaries of the German company Uniper and the Finnish company Fortum, which account for a dozen thermal plants and the largest gas power plant in the country.

——-

It will be funny watching Durov come crawling to Moscow to sell Telegram at a discounted price like Vkontakte


It’s very simple , just cutoff telegram from Russian users and Durovs market collapses

Good luck competing with WhatsApp and Signal in western countries

Russias landmass is so huge it highly likely there is far more oil fields that Russia doesn't even know about and also fields that they know about but haven't publicly announced.

d_taddei2 wrote:Russias landmass is so huge it highly likely there is far more oil fields that Russia doesn't even know about and also fields that they know about but haven't publicly announced.

This reasoning is sound because the variety of geological formations there is in Russia is sufficient. Russia is not just an igneous rock outcropping. The
vast salt deposits in the Urals region shows that huge tracts were seabed in the past. Russia has vast coal reserves for the same reason. As Hole
noted, the northern sea shelf is a vast zone that has been barely tapped. Even the USGS recognizes the potential of this region.

It is a bit like gun running... you wont last long in the business if you don't get accepted by certain major powers and often that is just a case of being blind about some things they are doing or want to do... I would suspect it would be the same in technology where you play ball and they will ignore you... but of course when you get big they will advise you to have backdoors in your system so they can access it when they need otherwise you are a threat.

They claimed Huawei might have backdoors for the Chinese military and government which is why they got banned in many western countries, but of course the truth is that they likely refused to put such backdoors in so the US could spy on traffic on their devices and systems and the US wants to spy on everyone so of course they could not accept their allies using equipment they can't hack so they told them about fake threats of spying despite evidence of US spying on allies is well documented and proven. It is part of how the west is subservient to the US because the US knows all their secrets... and they know because of spying.

They are so ignorant in regards to Russia and China because they have been focussing on spying on allies these last 35 years.

https://www.rt.com/russia/598115-russia-putin-us-property-confiscation/

Putin lays groundwork for confiscation of US assets
A roadmap has been prepared in anticipation of possible misappropriation of Russian state funds by Washington

Moscow could move to seize property owned by US-linked entities and citizens in Russia, should Washington attempt to confiscate Russian assets being held abroad, according to a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin on Thursday.

The US and its allies are presently devising ways to use funds generated by some $300 billion in Russian sovereign assets frozen in the West to help Ukraine’s war effort against Moscow.

The document released by the Kremlin outlines a future mechanism that would allow any damages caused by the US to be offset by property owned by the US itself or associated entities. The Russian government and central bank would be empowered to seek redress for such losses through a Russian court.

Those who could face potential action against their assets include US citizens or those who reside in the country, or those do most of their business or generate most of their profits in Russia. The property of people “under the control” of such individuals will also be liable, regardless of their nationality and residency.

The court will be able to grant compensation in the form of property physically present in Russia, shares in Russia-registered businesses and property rights. A governmental commission will be responsible for compiling the list of those who could be targeted for compensation.

Putin’s decree gives the government four months to prepare the legal framework for the mechanism and submit the relevant proposals to parliament for consideration.

Seizure of Russian assets in NATzO is a retarded move by NATzO. NATzO loses way more than it gains. Russian investments are not
that large. This includes the "300" billion CBR reserves which are less than 100 billion. I have seen some estimates of the interest
on this "300" that NATzO is planning to seize without supposedly seizing the principal. It is less than 5 billion. With current interest
rates this is consistent with 100 billion and under.

Well you have to ask yourself how much power and influence would Russia wield in the west with these 300 billion dollars locked up in western banks?

Now compare that with 300 billion dollars worth of major Russian companies and infrastructure that is currently owned by western customers to leech money out of the Russian economy and to allow them to steal from Russians. I read of one case regarding western companies that bought up electricity generation plants in Russia and have been increasing electricity prices all this time to generate revenue, while the Russian consumers suffered. I seem to remember the companies were Finnish, but I am not 100% sure.

There are lots of cases where foreign owned companies have been ordered to reduce production or stop work all together to damage the Russian economy and fortunately the Russians have already stepped in and put these companies under temporary Russian management and got them working at full capacity again.

But these asset seizures are good for Russia... the more the Russian economy is separated from greedy westerners the better for Russia and by doing this the west is allowing them to reciprocate and complete the job of cutting the west out of their country... very much like dealing with cancer.

Putin and Russia are so lucky the west are so stupid...

kvs wrote:Seizure of Russian assets in NATzO is a retarded move by NATzO.   NATzO loses way more than it gains.   Russian investments are not
that large.   This includes the "300" billion CBR reserves which are less than 100 billion.    I have seen some estimates of the interest
on this "300" that NATzO is planning to seize without supposedly seizing the principal.   It is less than 5 billion.  With current interest
rates this is consistent with 100 billion and under.  

This is patently false. Most of the Russian reserves, at the time of their freezing were deposited (about 270 bn)  in Euroclear facility in Belgium. At the time, ECB banking rate was still at 0%. At this moment ECB rate sits at 4,5%, but ECB deposit facility is at 4%.  Depending on the structure of investmenst and maturities of assets that were frozen, resulting rate will be below 4%, but it is not clear how much without full breakdown.
US FED interest rate currently sits at 5.5%, and one can get close to that rate in US money markets. As we know, Russia has divested from US banking products while ago and there was not much money that was frozen there in the first place. 
Complete respective  bond yield curves in both EU and US currently sit below headline interest rates ( for example, Bunds are substantially below ECB rate and inverted with 2 year bund bringing highest return of around 3%). 
Coping statements  that try to portray like only 100 billion was frozen, while repeatedly Russian government officials (among them Putin, as well) said on record that  around 300 billion of assets being sanctioned, are laughable.

I personally think it is in Russias interests to over estimate the value of money seized, because their response is likely to be balanced so say 400 billion is seized or frozen then that entitles Russia to seize and equivalent amount... but did you pay attention... the draft law regarding the response is not limited to western government assets... it allows the seizure of company and private assets too owned by westerners... that means when Russia occupies Ukraine they can take assets owned by Bidens and Blackwaters and other evil entities all perfectly legally...

The amount of farmland the west has bought over the last few years is enormous and would be a good way to reward people who have lost from this conflict... on both sides...

(Honest people...not nazis.)

GarryB wrote:I personally think it is in Russias interests to over estimate the value of money seized, because their response is likely to be balanced so say 400 billion is seized or frozen then that entitles Russia to seize and equivalent amount... but did you pay attention... the draft law regarding the response is not limited to western government assets... it allows the seizure of company and private assets too owned by westerners... that means when Russia occupies Ukraine they can take assets owned by Bidens and Blackwaters and other evil entities all perfectly legally..

Sounds nice, with one tiny exception that it is based on false presumptions. False Is that Western governments owned any sizeable assets in Russia. Sure, they own some  buildings used  for embassies and consulates and some bank accounts needed for their function, but no one will take that. Even if they do, it is chump change. 
Western governments never invested in Russian gov paper or held reserves in Russian banks,like RCB did. 
Only quasi government institution that owned anything in Russia was EBRD, but they stopped investing since Crimea sanctions and were in the process of divesting since. 
Western companies own substantial assets and some Western banks bought gov bonds and that's about it. 
Try to be more factual next time. Wishful thinking, I know. Back to the Mig-35 section for you Garry.

Sounds nice, with one tiny exception that it is based on false presumptions. False Is that Western governments owned any sizeable assets in Russia.

You are not paying attention are you... the draft law Putin is putting through does not specifically state government owned assets... it can be privately owned or western company assets that can be seized in compensation...

Look at post 385 above by higurashihougi...


"Moscow could move to seize property owned by US-linked entities and citizens in Russia, should Washington attempt to confiscate Russian assets being held abroad, according to a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin on Thursday."

And there are still thousands of western companies that didn't leave Russia because their businesses are more profitable than their businesses in the west... now when it comes to seizing assets and property don't you think it makes sense to seize assets making a good profit?

Try to be more factual next time. Wishful thinking, I know. Back to the Mig-35 section for you Garry.

Makes these comments rather amusing doesn't it... and of course Russia will waste the billions spent developing light cheap fighters by cancelling the MiG-35 and the Su-75 and all those other light fighter programmes because Su-35s and Su-57s can do everything... for four times the price... and there is one thing we know for certain is that if any country has corruption and waste in military spending it is Russia... wasting trillions every year... enormous debt... oops, no... that is the US.

But even the US whose solution is borrow and print more money wants a cheap light fighter... and they spent 1.5 trillion on the F-35 to get it... hahaha.

The point is that the west needs a cheap light fighter more than Russia does, but it is Russia that is going to get it... they have a current design they can put into production now and potential designs being prepared for the near future to go 5th gen at a time when the west pretends it has 5th gen fighters in service... but what they have is money draining junk.

GarryB wrote:
You are not paying attention  are you... the draft law Putin is putting through does not specifically state government owned assets... it can be privately owned or western company assets that can be seized in compensation...

Look at post 385 above by higurashihougi...


"Moscow could move to seize property owned by US-linked entities and citizens in Russia, should Washington attempt to confiscate Russian assets being held abroad, according to a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin on Thursday."

And there are still thousands of western companies that didn't leave Russia because their businesses are more profitable than their businesses in the west... now when it comes to seizing assets and property don't you think it makes sense to seize assets making a good profit?

I've never said otherwise.
I was just pointing to many false claims that you and other members here go to paint the picture so it suits your narratives.
 As for amounts of frozen Western assets by Russian government in the country it comes to roughly same amount ( actually somewhat higher than amount of Russian liquid government reserves that are frozen in the West). 
I never saw a ballpark estimate of frozen assets owned by Russian government owned companies and private subjects abroad. 
As one of the other members, Vympel, I think, already pointed it is laughable how people go to great lengths to try and obfuscate every piece of news that is negative for Russia, be it a military loss, bad political decision or economical miscalculation.

Western firms ‘backtracking’ on Russia exit plans – FT, 05.28.2024.

Russia’s strong economic performance is making the country more appealing for multinationals, the outlet reports.

More than half of the foreign businesses that announced plans to leave Russia after the start of the Ukraine conflict have remained in the country, the Financial Times reported on Monday. A rebound in consumer activity and “bureaucratic obstacles” are making the companies stay, the outlet suggested.

British businesses such as cosmetics brand Avon and consumer goods company Reckitt, as well as French industrial gas producer Air Liquide, are among 2,173 overseas firms that continue to operate in Russia as of May 5, according to data compiled by the Kiev School of Economics. Around 1,600 firms either exited or curtailed their operations in the country, it added.

Scores of Western companies pledged to leave the Russian market shortly after Moscow launched its military operation against Ukraine in February 2022. Carmakers Volkswagen and Renault, oil and gas multinationals Shell and British Petroleum, fast-food chain McDonald’s, and Swedish furniture giant IKEA are among those that completed their exits.

Firms that left in the first weeks of the conflict saw “a moral imperative” to do so, an executive working with Western companies in Russia told FT. However, there has since been “a noticeable change in sentiment,” he added.

“The current wave is more about, ‘Do you really have to leave? Do you want to leave?’ Some of these companies have built four, five factories over 30 years. They’re not going to sell that for a 90% discount,” the outlet quoted the executive as saying.

The sale of assets to Russian buyers by Western companies requires approval by a government commission headed by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. The Finance Ministry imposed a mandatory 50% discount on the sale of assets belonging to firms from “unfriendly” countries, and a minimum 15% “exit tax,” Russian media previously reported.

Russia’s strong economic performance is reportedly also a factor in the decision by foreign firms to remain, with the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growing by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, according to preliminary data released by the national statistics service, Rosstat. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it expected the Russian economy to grow faster than all advanced economies this year. GDP is forecast to expand by 3.2%, exceeding the expected growth rates for the US (2.7%), the UK (0.5%), Germany (0.2%), and France (0.7%).

Real wages in Russia also grew by nearly 8% last year – the biggest jump in five years, according to Rosstat.

Mondelez, Unilever, and Nestle are also among those that opted to stay. The chief executive of confectionery giant Mondelez recently told the FT that the firm’s shareholders did not “morally care” whether the group exited the country.

Russian President Vladimir Putin set a goal earlier this month for the country to have the fourth-highest GDP – measured by purchasing power parity – in the world, by 2030. The government has announced a raft of measures aimed at transforming the country’s economy and promoting consumer spending. They include labor reforms, entrepreneurial incentives, and increased efficiency and productivity.

https://www.rt.com/business/598332-western-firms-backtrack-russia-exit/

I've never said otherwise.
I was just pointing to many false claims that you and other members here go to paint the picture so it suits your narratives.
As for amounts of frozen Western assets by Russian government in the country it comes to roughly same amount ( actually somewhat higher than amount of Russian liquid government reserves that are frozen in the West).

Except Russia has already imposed serious limits on western owned businesses in Russia with restrictions on their sales and limitations on who they can sell to and for how much.

There are also enormous taxes put on these sales so Russia is earning a huge chunk of money with every sale... yet even with all the restrictions some companies are not bothering to leave.

The company that owns Cadburys Montelez or some such thing have said they are making good money in Russia and their share holders and owners don't care that they are operating in Russia so they are not going to leave...

Such a company would be ideal to seize... they probably fill out their recipes with sawdust or something to make it cheaper to produce... evil company.

I never saw a ballpark estimate of frozen assets owned by Russian government owned companies and private subjects abroad.

Really? They often list it... 260 odd billion in that Euroclear place, and about 10-15 billion in the US and the rest amongst other G7 countries and ratbags of the west who do as they are told... including Australia and Canada. Works out to roughly 300 billion give or take 10 billion or so.

It is not just about the money though... the very idea that these western countries that go on and on about international law would break international law and steal money and assets from a country blows all confidence in them as a place to keep money and assets... that Euroclear company might go tits up if it is forced to do this... because who can trust them after this?

Once they do this to Russia they will do it to everyone they don't like... and the list is long and gets additions every year.

As one of the other members, Vympel, I think, already pointed it is laughable how people go to great lengths to try and obfuscate every piece of news that is negative for Russia, be it a military loss, bad political decision or economical miscalculation.

Mostly because that news generally comes from the west with spin on it to make it appear rather more negative than it actually is.

They would like for us to think Russia does not know what it is doing... it makes them look rather less incompetent...

https://www.rt.com/business/598332-western-firms-backtrack-russia-exit/

Western firms ‘backtracking’ on Russia exit plans – FT

Russia’s strong economic performance is making the country more appealing for multinationals, the outlet reports

More than half of the foreign businesses that announced plans to leave Russia after the start of the Ukraine conflict have remained in the country, the Financial Times reported on Monday. A rebound in consumer activity and “bureaucratic obstacles” are making the companies stay, the outlet suggested.

British businesses such as cosmetics brand Avon and consumer goods company Reckitt, as well as French industrial gas producer Air Liquide, are among 2,173 overseas firms that continue to operate in Russia as of May 5, according to data compiled by the Kiev School of Economics. Around 1,600 firms either exited or curtailed their operations in the country, it added.

Scores of Western companies pledged to leave the Russian market shortly after Moscow launched its military operation against Ukraine in February 2022. Carmakers Volkswagen and Renault, oil and gas multinationals Shell and British Petroleum, fast-food chain McDonald’s, and Swedish furniture giant IKEA are among those that completed their exits.

Firms that left in the first weeks of the conflict saw “a moral imperative” to do so, an executive working with Western companies in Russia told FT. However, there has since been “a noticeable change in sentiment,” he added.

“The current wave is more about, ‘Do you really have to leave? Do you want to leave?’ Some of these companies have built four, five factories over 30 years. They’re not going to sell that for a 90% discount,” the outlet quoted the executive as saying.

Mondelez, Unilever, and Nestle are also among those that opted to stay. The chief executive of confectionery giant Mondelez recently told the FT that the firm’s shareholders did not “morally care” whether the group exited the country.

GarryB wrote:
Really? They often list it... 260 odd billion in that Euroclear place, and about 10-15 billion in the US and the rest amongst other G7 countries and ratbags of the west who do as they are told...  including Australia and Canada. Works out to roughly 300 billion give or take 10 billion or so.

It is not just about the money though... the very idea that these western countries that go on and on about international law would break international law and steal money and assets from a country blows all confidence in them as a place to keep money and assets... that Euroclear company might go tits up if it is forced to do this... because who can trust them after this?

Money frozen in Euroclear and deposit accounts and reserves is mostly Russian government reserves, some government owned companies and RCB. This is not what i was talking about.
For example, Rosneft has over 5 billion euros worth of  assets in Germany alone (majority stake in one of the biggest German refineries among others) that is now put under receivership, Germany nationalized Gazprom Germany, Poland nationalized half of the stake in Yamal pipeline, etc. Those assets are also worth tens of  billions. Also, Russian private companies. Lukoil's both refineries are in danger (in Burgas and Ploiesti) are in danger and other stuff.

GarryB wrote:
Mostly because that news generally comes from the west with spin on it to make it appear rather more negative than it actually is.

They would like for us to think Russia does not know what it is doing... it makes them look rather less incompetent...

Plenty of those from Russian sources, that later turned out to be true. I would say those were in majority. Of course, when same sources post something positive, no one complains.
But, i'm sure that you knew that already. In any case, it is a waste of time to even get into these kind of conversations with most people here.

Money frozen in Euroclear and deposit accounts and reserves is mostly Russian government reserves, some government owned companies and RCB. This is not what i was talking about.
For example, Rosneft has over 5 billion euros worth of assets in Germany alone (majority stake in one of the biggest German refineries among others) that is now put under receivership, Germany nationalized Gazprom Germany, Poland nationalized half of the stake in Yamal pipeline, etc. Those assets are also worth tens of billions. Also, Russian private companies. Lukoil's both refineries are in danger (in Burgas and Ploiesti) are in danger and other stuff.

And European companies have all sorts of similar infrastructure and assets on Russian territory including ports and power stations and power delivery lines etc etc...

The real difference is that the European stuff in Russia is probably making good money while the Russian stuff has generally been seized already...

Plenty of those from Russian sources, that later turned out to be true. I would say those were in majority. Of course, when same sources post something positive, no one complains.
But, i'm sure that you knew that already. In any case, it is a waste of time to even get into these kind of conversations with most people here.

Western propaganda has a long history with Russia and the Soviet Union, and most of the time the news was bad... and even the positive news was spun to appear to be a byproduct or unintended consequence.

I will start listening to western sources when they start caring more about the truth than about what they are told they have to say and do.

That might be never.

That is fine too.

caveat emptor wrote:

Sounds nice, with one tiny exception that it is based on false presumptions. False Is that Western governments owned any sizeable assets in Russia. Sure, they own some  buildings used  for embassies and consulates and some bank accounts needed for their function, but no one will take that. Even if they do, it is chump change. 
Western governments never invested in Russian gov paper or held reserves in Russian banks,like RCB did. 
Only quasi government institution that owned anything in Russia was EBRD, but they stopped investing since Crimea sanctions and were in the process of divesting since. 
Western companies own substantial assets and some Western banks bought gov bonds and that's about it. 
Try to be more factual next time. Wishful thinking, I know. Back to the Mig-35 section for you Garry.

lol this is Mega cope

McDonald’s, Nissan, Danone, Uniper, Fortum represent tens of billions worth of losses and those are just physical asset seizures

We don’t even talk yet about Type C accounts that have 288 billion dollars worth of investments frozen through accounts in Cyprus and in Russia

Whose money do you think that is?

As someone that claims he works for accounting firm you should know that type C accounts are uniquely Russian and created by RCB.
Claiming existence of type C accounts in Cyprus, jurisdiction where RCB doesn't have any power, is not even laughable. It shows that either you're lying that you have any connections to anything in finance, you're completely incompetent or extremely stupid, have mental issues or you're just a troll and a dumb one.
RCB can't freeze or repossess shit in Cyprus. I think that even people without any knowledge about finance understand that.
As for reserves, it is very simple math question. Can they make out whole from this situation? Most likely government liquid reserves can, and assets owned by Russian government or private companies not so much.
Of course, another question of responsibility comes to mind, but that will have to be left for after the war. Or, very likely, it will be forgotten and pushed under the carpet.

Russian billionaires who thought they could make good money building factories in western countries and sending cheap Russian raw materials to these factories for processing and sales on foreign markets have been burned by the current situation...

Russian companies that thought a good business model would be to use Russian resources and Russian money to invest in the west to sell in western markets have ended up taking huge losses...