Russian special military operation in Ukraine #51

The only reason why at the end of the road Russkie will be forced to partial 404 and suck its parts into federation is the principal inability of Ukrainian ruling caste to make any agreements.

Totally agree. If putin was a butcher and a murderer why is he sparing the Ukrainian people who obviously hate Russia more than some westerners do... if this was a land grab then seizing the entire territory and subduing the population and getting rid of the unwanted factions would have been the order of the day.

Lets be honest... this war is all about corruption... that is why the west is so desperate to send billions of dollars at a time when they have no ammo or weapons to send and know all the available sources around the world that could provide weapons and ammo are exhausted so ask yourself what good is money to the average person on the street in Ukraine. Well before you even ask yourself that you know it doesn't matter because the guy or girl on the street is never going to see any of that money.

This war of corruption is a two sided war... Kiev loves it because they pocket billions of western dollars... it is easy and is happening at every level... they hire western experts like Pompeo and Hunter Biden... not experts in gas... experts in US corruption... but the real question is why is the west throwing all this money at what they admit is a losing war.

They are counting on it.

Most of the cash they are sending to the Ukraine is being used to buy up US debt... the rest is disappearing into various different pockets on both sides of course to grease the wheels.

What happens when Kiev is defeated... they cease to be an entity.... but what happens to the US debt they bought with US and western money thrown at them?

I am guessing they will write it off because the debt holder no longer exists.... it would be a bit like Yugoslavia getting 1.5 trillion dollars in aide... of which they spend 1 trillion in US debt and 500 billion on arms and ammo and equipment.... when they collapse they owned 1 trillion in US debt that the US no longer has to pay any more... but it was US money in the first place that bought it, but also EU money too... that is why they want anyone and everyone to pay in to the ponsie scheme before it collapses and all the money disappears like smoke and mirrors.

Of course the last decade has been essentially the same for Ukraine that the 1990s were for Russia and lots of very big very rich western companies own a lot of stuff in the Ukraine including all those black fertile fields and mines and other resources so they were fighting for that too... but if the elite in the west and Kiev didn't make lots of money on this deal it never would have happened.

Yes but at the end of the road Russia will have to deal with at max 20million people in former 404. I suppose that Poland will have also to deal with many "refugees" (and by many I mean several millions).

Kiev managed to subdue those in the East and the South with a bit of violence and threats... I am pretty sure if they promised peace and a chance to vote for someone who is not a puppet for the west who openly lies about what they are doing and actually start working in the interests of Ukraine instead of big business in the US.

I would doubt if they will be able to feed themselves at that point, because any agrarian land that they will be left with will be owned by western agro industry. That will give a shit about what they will eat.

And they don't do charity... if the Ukrainans can't afford it it will be exported to people who can afford it.

Russians numbers aren't right. It could be bullshit to play some propaganda game or just the official number of what they have as intel, they certainly don't have intel on all the casualties. By intel I mean graveyard counters, report from drone operators, radio interception...

Russian numbers are likely to be confirmed kills only, which means if they don't find the body then it doesn't get counted, plus in many operations they had fighting retreats killing enemy forces as they withdrew, and then shelled the positions they left and then moved moved forward and took back the places they just left... I doubt counting enemy bodies and injured was their top priority at any stage.

Can anyone think of a better strategy of showing Europe that Russia is not interested in moving further west after the SMO is over than this?

It would be territory that Russia would otherwise have to foot the bill to restore.

Which makes the current tactics rather sensible because those European countries wouldn't want those territories if the Russians went in and leveled the places in a bid to cut off supplies from the west. Currently... apart from a few Barraks and a few Warehouses... most of these places are fully intact.

They don’t tell so many things that it angers me as I am interested and smell bullshit they peddle

Lets face it.... if they gave the full truth on everything then Kiev would have good information to revise their tactics and reduce their losses if that was important to them... which of course it isn't.

Question is why should Russia reward NATO states, two of the three were at the forefront in supporting the Ukros.

Not sure West Germans think getting East Germany back was a blessing or a gift, and I suspect most East Germans don't think so either...

Getting those territories back gets rid of some rubbish that will never add value to a Russian Federation and will always be a drag on its income.

This is not a gift, it is simply a correction of past errors.

Even people like myself, whose ancestors were coming from Kresy, and my grandmother was born in Lvov.
We used to have some strong representation of "Kresowianie", people who rooted from Kresy, but those people died already. Ancestors - like me - give a round shit about the city itself, and keep remembering that it was ukranized for the last 80+ years. There are no more Poles there, only hard core bandera lovers.
We already consumed the beneficiary of cohabiting with Ukrainians, and wanting them as a part of our country or a nation would mean that someone has no brain.
This is what makes the difference.

You understand that, but does your government?

Poland likes to cry victim like when Russia recovered territory in 1939 that was taken a few decades earlier after WWI had weakened the Russians, and of course Poland also took parts of other countries that Germany didn't want as it expanded in the late 1930s too... do you think they are going to refuse to help their Ukrainian brothers this time around too?

It will most likely be written into some sort of deal where Russia will supply cheap gas and oil just to Poland and the other states that sign up, and perhaps get cheap electricity when Russia changes the nuclear power plant situation in the region... I doubt any nuclear power plants outside their control will be left intact.

They might go for agreements with individual European countries actually on their border to ensure their security in lieu of wasting time talking to France or UK or Germany or the US which have proven they can't be trusted anyway.

Where are some world's largest deposits of lithium?
In Doneck Basin.

Except now that they have actually started looking seriously they are finding it all over the place too...

How can they mobilise such numbers? What money? What weapons, uniforms, officers? All be riding bicycles to war, as their motorised pool is not doing great now. Anyway, statements like these probably were enough to get young men, patriotic or not, looking at moving away. What a self dunk.

Or a cunning plan to make all their draftable age women suddenly decide to start on that family they always wanted... good way to boost the fertility numbers, but so many single mothers for the future that could be an albatross in the making.

In the meantime Putin is saying there won't be any more Russian mobilization. At least not in the next year. I guess this war will go on in fairly high intensity for a decade.

The money is ending and the people getting called up now will be horribly unsuited to combat... if just numbers of people meant anything in war then China would never have been occupied by little tiny Japan during and before WWII.

How do we really know how hard it would be for Russia to manage Ukraine ? Ppl would get on with their lives. As they did in Chechnya once the foreign funding and meddling was cut off.

I would say... from the other side of the Planet with no stake in the game... what do these people bring to the table for Russia... why should Russia free these mental inmate patients and save them from a horrible future?

Don't let the Eu get away with what they did so easy... paying 5 times more for energy and losing trade ties and assets worth billions in Russia is not enough... they have been saying to these people they have their backs for as long as it takes so they should be happy to fund these people... it is not like Russia has leveled the place and it will cost trillions to rebuild... most of it is largely untouched by this conflict except the broken people.

It will, you just need to keep roasting that meat and lay off the pussyfooting

It is a question of time and reality.

When Putin went to the EU and the US with ideas on how to make everyone feel secure both dismissed his ideas as ridiculous because their idea of his position was ridiculous... they thought he was a mafia boss who was in charge because he eliminated any serious competition and people voted for him because Russia was living off all the billions that Europe and the west paid them for their gas and oil and metals etc etc and that if they cut Russia off from not just that money but also made international trade with them difficult by kicking them out of SWIFT that the whole pile of cards would collapse... putin would get the blame and whomever they voted in to replace Putin would come crawling to the west for any deal which they would be so generous to give them for even cheaper oil and gas and also ownership of a few oil fields and gas fields and mines of course.

Right now they have a better understanding of reality and would probably be interested in looking at those deals again... especially if they included the original Minsk agreements of Kiev managing the Donbass and Lugansk Regions with them being autonomous regions within the Ukrainian state... but as Putin has said... that ship has sailed and those deals are no longer on the table and the longer it takes to get an agreement the deal for Kiev and the west is just going to get worse and worse.

It is almost like they hear Putin through a filter and just think he is joking around and that if they wait long enough he will get desperate, but the fact of the matter is that it is Zelensky that is going to run out of time well before Putin is... and more importantly so is Biden and he is the driving force behind this conflict... this would not have happened if he wasn't president.... this shit has been in planning for decades. Clintons and Bidens wanted this to happen to finally get rid of Putin and it has only made him look good.

I don't generally post memes but this I couldn't resist, its bang on the money

Would be better with images of the dead they abandoned when they were no longer useful, like the Afghans and Iraqis and Libyans and Venezuelans and Cubans and Koreans and Japanese and soon Taiwanese all the other groups they got to help them on the ground anywhere they were and just left behind to their fate when they left.

If these annexation bleaters were consistent they would be calling this a Polish annexation of German lands.

Like femenists who don't want equal rights, they cherry pick the good stuff and leave the stuff they don't like like they are at a buffet dinner... yes we want equal pay (which they actually have BTW... most stats that say otherwise are manipulated...), but we don't want equal jail times or to be put on the draft...

That means all 2024, Russia will maintain the intensity and its only goals will be to liberate the donbass

Even if Kiev stops the frontal attacks and goes into a defensive mode I think the Russian Army is getting to a point where they can use drones and air power to hunt down enemy support and forces behind the front lines and that as such Kievs forces will continue to bleed... not to mention the supply trucks are probably not even going to be full, so manpower and ammo and weapons shortages are going to cause problems too.

Russia can spend the next year testing robot drones in the air and on the ground for dealing with defensive lines... it should be rather useful and also minimise casualties too... I honestly don't think Kievs forces are going to last another year.

If the west accepts a peace deal in 2024/2025 however, this will be unnecessary and Russia can just negotiate a deal and maintain this force as a sword over their heads anyway

That is a good point... further mobilisation has costs to the Russian economy, so it should not just be done for fun... later on to add pressure to get a deal signed off by the west (not that they could be trusted), or as a response to HATO officially sending troops into Ukraine to help Kiev (like they haven't already done that... hahahaha).

No, Stalin did not withdraw Soviet troops from Austria.

Are they still there?

There can be no "good faith gestures" to GAYTO.
THAT was what caused the problem in the first place.

Putin and Lavrov have both said that this is a creation of the west and Russia is done with the west... if the west wants to fix things then they have to make the first moves and reconciliation and they have to make concessions... so I agree there.

But I don't think Putin considers the parts of western Ukraine as really being Soviet to begin with... just like I doubt he wants Finland back either.

@ thegopnik

Well first of all I would believe nothing the WP has to say on anything at all. But secondly I would say talking to Biden would be like talking to Zelensky.... Biden is coming in to an election cycle and desperately needs a win... any win to have any hope at all of reelection... of course at his age even if there was an end to this conflict on Zelenskys terms he would not get reelected.

Equally the Russians understand the situation full well and will want a range of things... probably including WADA and the Olympic committee losing its CIA members and being reattached to SWIFT and all sanctions against Russia and Belarus dropped... hell... Iran and China too.

This will be the first of many talks and don't expect results any time soon... unless Biden is in panic mode... but then any promises he makes can be reneged upon by Congress or the Senate anyway.