Russian special military operation in Ukraine #57

I think we are seeing a transition. The latest round of recruits is barely trained and they are short of experienced commanders to lead them.
The timing of the Russian expansion of the frontal pressure is optimal. Losses of 2000 per day are not sustainable.

Probably the reason France is sending "instructors" to assist...

China clearly demonstrating that she will directly support Russia materially and via boots on the ground would alter NATO calculations immediately.

It would, but why would China commit to sending troops to a conflict they don't care much about... plus HATO are and might think the solution to China sending troops to fight in Europe is to start a war in Asia, either between India and China or between China and Taiwan to distract them.

Russia wont ask China or North Korea or Iran for soldiers, though each of those countries might be interested in sending observers to see how the Russians do it... but they can learn most of the lessons in friendly bilateral exercises with Russia...

Putin' primary limitation is domestic politics which limits Russia's use of manpower.

The level of public support suggests trust too... I would say if Putin thought going into war mode and putting off the production of replacement material and equipment to fill the gap created by the withdrawal of western aircraft and technology and systems and equipment from Russia was necessary then he would have done it already...

He is not an irrational thinker and no doubt is rather more upset with every loss than the chicken littles on this forum pretend to be.

But people in power know their is no perfect answer that solves all your problems at no cost... so you have to look at the options that offer results worth chasing at costs that can be justified.

Not losing any men sounds like the best choice, but that could only come with not attack, and the conflict would have happened anyway which means you will lose men no matter which choice you took.

Pre-emptive self defence was their best option and claiming they should have done it this way or that... well you are basing that on what we know now and not what was known at the time so that advice is useless.

If Putin knew in 2014 that Merkel was a lying bitch (she has destroyed her image and record as a statesperson) and Holland was a lying , then I don't think he would have invaded but I am sure he would have done rather more to support the opposition inside the Ukraine and helped them to sort out their civil war... which likely would still be going and be rather more brutal and bloody than what we have seen in terms of civilian and military casualties.

NATO clearly intends to expand strikes into all areas of Russia including production facilities for weapons.

They do, but their capacity to launch strikes in big enough numbers to overwhelm defences... remember a deep strike has to be routed past several probably very heavily defended targets... the defences of which could shoot down a range of threats on their way to their target... or at least detect the threat so the target can be fully alert when the threats arrive.

The location in Ukraine that launched the strike can be hammered with weapons that seem to reliably hit the target and destroy it.

ATACMS is one thing but you need HIMARS launchers to launch it...

China has greater production capabilities than any country on earth and directly attacking China is not on the NATO agenda.

I would say Russia is being attacked because it is an economic and political and military threat... and China will be next on that list for all the very same reasons.

The advantage you mention of China sending troops is that even the hardest core fuckwits in the west wont want to fight them both at the same time... but they are idiots so never say never.

The one essential fact to keep in mind is Western military power is a mile wide and an inch deep - there is zero tolerance in America or Western Europe for tens of thousands of KIA.

And their air defence is pathetic and aircraft based, so their attack and defence relies on their airpower so with every attack and every attack they defend against where they lose aircraft their attack strength and their defensive capacity will be weakened each time... and there are already threats they have no defence at all against...

The Chinese leadership may not realize it, but this is their historic moment - step to the plate and the leadership of the world changes overnight, prevaricate and the current Chinese government seals their own long-term fate.

But that is the point... their long term future is at stake.... and the longer this takes the more the west bleeds and weakens and the smaller the Ukraine gets and the less chance of future problems from them for Russia. (They are zero threat to China).

China isn't going to step up and pick sides in this conflict apart from pointing out the obvious... like a peace and love festival to find a peaceful solution that does not include both parties of the conflict is a propaganda festival used to demonise and isolate the party that isn't there.

Russia does not benefit from a quick solution either... the longer this takes the more they will continue to consume the Ukrainian armed forces and kill off potential oppositiion.

Look at PD... if you listen to him he hates Russia and Russian politicians more than he hates Americans and American politicians that bombed and split up his country.

Relate that to the Ukraine and it is potentially a case that if Russia restores peace and rebuilds general stuff and then leaves it to local politicians to sort things out in the neutral zones and rebuilds the regions in the Russian Federation then public opinion is going to shift from "everything is Russias fault" to "Russia fixes things and builds things and made peace, while the west just ran away and demands payment for all the loans they gave us"...

Yes, kill them all

And that’s all

They have the choice... surrender or die... Russia should oblige them either way.

Most "Russian" tanks in the Iraqi Army were made in Yugoslavia or China.
Most had western (American or French) fire control systems added.
That´s why they performed so badly.

Well also because they tended to be a generation behind what the west was using and of course when they faced western armour the western armour had air and artillery support and they generally didn't.... and up until they faced the western armour they were facing western air power attacks too.

Most likely the western forces had good communications while Iraqi comms were likely jammed or interfered with.

But Fritz assured me that the numbers will go down

The new Ukrainian military guy said they would fight more defensively and reduce their losses and bleed the Russian army attackers...

They are desperate, they know they messed up. And desperate people can do dangerous things.

They certainly can but a smart cool headed leader can take advantage of the enemies stupidity and hot headedness and take steps that benefit Russia... I am sure Russia will want a humiliated west to start signing binding international agreements that shifts western policy in the military sphere towards something closer to what the BRICS group wants than the west would like.

The core problem is.... are there sensible people in the wings in the west that can step up and say no when idiots like Hillary Clinton say... lets have a no fly zone in Syria or Ukraine or whereever...

but he is cognizant that NATO is giving Ukraine older weapons systems because they want to keep the war going for two reasons.

Agree with your post, but I would add if you look at threads on Russian artillery the last few years there have been people popping up complaining that the M777 is some super weapon with super range and super light weight and why doesn't Russia have such weapons and Russia is going to get creamed in WWIII be because M777 and Excalibr will take out all of Russias positions and HQs and everything and the HATO forces will walk through Russian positions.

Most western politicians thought the same about the Leopard II and then Challenger II and then Abrams tanks... they just need to send a couple of dozen and they will roll through Russian defences and get to the Crimea and lead the recapture of that place just in time for cream cakes and tea on the Black Sea.

The reality is that tanks have the same problems and issues... the front 60 degree angle has the heaviest armour and you want that to stop enemy main tank gun rounds and ATGMs from 1-3km or so, while the sides need to stop light auto cannon fire and the rear HMG fire. With such a formula even the T-14 can be penetrated from behind and the rear mounted engine wont stop a penetrator reaching the turret bustle and setting off the ammo... so why send a T-14 when an uparmoured T-72 can have improved optics and comms and armour add on and cages and ERA and eventually APS and be almost as good from the front and good enough everywhere else.

Obviously the T-14 is better but not war winning or war losing better... the T-14 will be at its most effective when the rest of the Army catches up electronically and data communication with artillery and air power and each vehicle gets to video game levels showing enemy positions and targets etc etc.

Until then the T-72 is a good base tank and with upgrades is good enough and at a fraction of the price and can be deployed quickly and easily with parts and equipment widely available.

It will also be lighter and more mobile than the western tanks it might come up against...

So really we are seeing a war of draining the tank parks and bone yards.

Plus a realisation of the value of storage for old vehicles and weapons and ammo in times of serious conflict, so they will likely continue production of new stuff to fill up stores after the conflict ends.

The US had air dominance in Iraq and could engage in turkey shoots in the open terrain. Even if they had the bestest tanks, they would still have lost.

And give credit where it is due, the biggest American ground victory was the massacre of Iraqi armour and ground forces retreating from Kuwait by American air power...

The stories by the NY Times about Budanov's glorious covert operations inside Russia are laden with BS.

After WWII most of what the west understood about what happened on the Eastern Front was from the West German Nazis they added to their ranks. This led to all sorts of idiotic ideas forming in the west... human wave attacks... one rifle for one man and one clip of five rounds for the next guy... all sorts of hogwash... it made it much easier to believe the war was won by lend lease and D Day and that the west rescued the Soviets from a German slaughterhouse.

BTW I did see an article that the ammo being supplied to the Ukraine of Soviet calibre ammo is turning out to be of dubious value as the African and Asian sourced ammo is a big unreliable and horribly inaccurate... and they likely sold it for top dollar too.... hahaha.

I don't understand why this line of thinking and whole discussion didn't happen when American Stykers were rolling into Belgrod , spans of the Crimean bridge were taken out and when the actual Kremlin spires were being hit by drones.

Because those attacks were totally meaningless in terms of the direction this war was taking. Those idiots in Belgorod were cleaned up very quickly and taking down a section of a bridge that is 19km long that was not relevant to the supply of Russian forces in the conflict is just terrorism and in context is not going to work.

Obviously the total 100% non reaction to those events leads to a nuclear deterrence radar being hit.

And the ignorance there is palpable... the two successful attacks on the Crimean bridge led to serious attacks in response that took out much of their electricity grid and caused them lots of problems not only for the civilian population but also in moving military forces and support and supplies around their country. The land based attack into Russian territory was stopped and pushed back easily enough with enough of those participating getting killed to be a message in itself...

These were likely highly trained by HATO forces for this very purpose and local defences stopped them and pushed them back without needing reinforcements... it was pathetic if that is the standard of HATO special forces for WWIII.

So here we are again and Putin will probably do nothing.

Several Russian officials have pointed out that escalations can lead to dire consequences... how about instead of condemning Putin for what fucked up idiots in the west THINK he might do, lets wait and see if the west has the balls or if they are just testing the water like the faggots they are.

It is funny that in addition to being weak and dying and interfering in every western election that does not go the right way, he also is guilty of being weak because he does not react to the west crossing his red lines before they cross them. Then they cross them and there is a delay where he is weak and people complain he is weak... and then the Ukrainian electricity grid is demolished and airfields they were going to deploy aircraft to are hit heavily, and their pilot training centre is hit killing lots of their new pilots... but he is weak and never does anything... all part of the western propaganda that supporters of Russia routinely fall for...

This reminds me. It's time to go check Paul Craig Roberts blog. He has been sounding the Salem about this since 2021

Who cares what he says. A pro American patriot who is a little more realistic than most of establishment...

Just fight the war basically as it is being fought EXCEPT, when an attack like the Crimean bridge or Belgorod or the recent attack happens, retaliate with high level attacks right away. Completely level a Ukraine govt building every time an attack like this happens. Level every building around the US embassy. Don't hit the embassy. Just everything around it.

Now that Zelensky is no longer the leader of Ukraine that might be an option, and now that Israel destroyed an Iranian embassy in Syria and killed several Iranian officials I am sure the options have changed for Russia too... no point leveling the buildings around the US embassy... just use old maps and level it.

Or, as the US said after they destroyed the Chinese embassy in Serbia that intel detected communications traffic in and out of the embassy that was not in line with their official duties and incriminated them as being part of the conflict and therefore a legitimate target.

I almost forgot about Nord stream 2. What was the reaction to that ? Nothing.

The pipes are owned by western companies who are now demanding compensation from their insurance companies. Not Russias problem that their capacity to supply gas energy cheaply to Germany has been destroyed by a third party.

So ALL this help NATO sending the Orcs , is it making Russia weaker or stronger ?

What they are sending does not equal what they are using because a lot is destroyed in transit, or as it is being used for an attack.

It is making the west weaker and Russia stronger, as Ukraine suffocates...

You don't get more establishment insider than the "papers of record". The NYT doesn't hide it - their byline is all the news that is fit to print. (In other words, they decide what is and isn't news).

Like any western paper it is infiltrated by the CIA who has veto on what is or is not published... it is an indication to their thinking but don't think for a second it is truthful or has any value. I suspect the articles about Putin wanting a ceasefire might have been more about testing the waters to see what everyone in the west thought about a ceasefire because one side would desperately love a ceasefire right about now and it isn't Russia.

Surprised anyone reads that crap except to see what western governments are now allowed to think.

Well for the Russians most are experienced soldiers which could continue a career if they wanted to.... there is now demand for experienced soldiers and a huge market in Africa and the Middle East for men who know what they are doing...

That will be the West‘ concern.

Ironically the west shows off the fact that they studied the problem and realised that only about 2% of the population were natural killers and they pride themselves on their training that taught their soldiers to all be killers... but the sophistication only goes that far... suicide and violent crime records for ex western service personal shows they wanted their soldiers to kill to make them more effective in combat, but afterwards they didn't give a shit about bringing them down and bringing them back into society and a peaceful life afterwards... they just left them damaged and broken.

The Russians seem to be looking after their veterans and giving them a future including those with missing limbs or other less visible problems.

Pincer on Chasov-Yar underway.

DD Geopolitics
@DD_Geopolitics
Confirmed: Russian forces have crossed the Seversky-Donetsk-Donbass canal again, this time in the North, establishing a second successful bridgehead West of the canal.

Russian forces advanced an incredible 2,000 meters North of Chasov-Yar (Bakhmut direction), capturing 90% of Kalinovka.

This comes immediately after Russia successfully crossed the canal in the South, yesterday.

Tom Bike
@tom_bike
Russia is improving its Kerch Bridge anti sea drone defense game, shows TODAY´s satellite image.

First layer are several lined red barges. Poss. with hanging anchored barrier nets. Second, booms, black lines between bridge and barges.

Quite a lot of ammo converted into heat and light!

JohninMK wrote:Quite a lot of ammo converted into heat and light!

Nothing to watch there, it is the almighty ukro AD intercepting 120% missiles, with use of hydro power plant. State of the art tactics it is indeed!

According to a BBC statement citing an anonymous military aviation officer, France gave Ukraine permission to use Storm Shadows/Scalps cruise missiles to attack airfields in the Kursk and Belgorod regions.

Stealthflanker wrote:

Arrow wrote:According to a BBC statement citing an anonymous military aviation officer, France gave Ukraine permission to use Storm Shadows/Scalps cruise missiles to attack airfields in the Kursk and Belgorod regions.

Yeah then what ?  VKS been facing same threat in Crimea.  Question being of course whether they will be more aggressive.  More CAP sorties, mobilization of A-50's, creation of special corridor where NO aircraft shall enter or be blasted by SAM's.  things like that.

What VKS should do is very clear, hunt down the archer before it shoots.

I'd suggest that the Global Hawk frequenting the Black Sea is probably on borrowed time. Not a lot of down side hitting one or more of those, as the Iranians found. Sends an unmistakable message straight to the heart of US/NATO.

... old woman who lack jars with pickles.

Photo claimed to be from UA drone

Zlatti71
@Zlatti_71
The first photo of the Russian wheeled 152-mm self-propelled gun 2S43 “Malva” of the North group of troops has appeared at a firing position in the Kharkov region. - ISZ reports

A standard re-equipment train? I don't think so. Look what's on it at about 4 seconds in, a tunneling machine