Russian special military operation in Ukraine #57

lyle6 wrote:

mnztr wrote:

They really need to arm the Houthis to sink a carrier. That'll learn em.

They already do. Russia provides the ISR for the Iranians and Houthis.

Russia would have been wise to have been doing that since the Houthis started targetting vessels

And most of the rest of these measures are things that Russia should have been doing since the start of the SMO, in response to NATO arming the Ukraine to the teeth, sharing with it all the data it has, sending NATO advisers to operate weapon systems against Russian forces, attempting to enact a blockade on Russia, supporting seperatism in Russia, sponsoring an attack by alleged Islamists in Moscow, and so on.

NATO has already done so much more.

And now they've coming to doing the only thing they have left to do which is attack Russia directly.

Arrow wrote:


FP , Putin will not answer with anything other than what he said, i.e. handing over some weapons systems to the rebels, etc. Currently, they will not even destroy US drones over the Black Sea

As others have pointed out, Putin would be a fool to tell them what he's planning to do

But everything I see so far suggests that it will be a weak move in response that will only allow the hawks in Washington more arguments over the dwindling opposition to them as to why they're safe in pushing the boundaries yet further

I hope Moscow knows what it's doing. They can see things better than us.

Medvedev:

Yesterday, for the first time, the Russian president allowed our weapons to be sent to regions that are at war with the states that supply weapons to ex-Ukraine (or, more precisely, use these weapons on our country). In other words, to those forces that are in conflict with America and NATO countries.
This is a very significant change in our foreign policy. After all, as the Yankees and their European salivating dogs reason: we have the right to transfer any weapons to ex- Ukraine (i.e. to the enemy of our country). Ukraine (i.e. our country's enemy), while all other countries cannot help Russia. In other words, we will destroy you in every possible way, but no one dares to supply the Russians with weapons/equipment/other assets to defend the country.
Let the US and its allies now feel the direct use of Russian weapons by third parties. These persons or regions are intentionally not named, but they can be anyone who considers U.S. and its comrades to be their enemies. Regardless of their political beliefs and international recognition.
Their enemy is the US, so they are our friends.
And let the use of Russian weapons by "regions" not yet named be as destructive as possible for their and our enemies. And let the "sensitive facilities of the states supplying weapons to Kiev" burn in the flames of hell. They will burn together with those who control them.
And we will rejoice at their successful strikes with our weapons against our common enemies!

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@Slavyangrad | Andrei

I am sure if they wanted to they could wreak havoc on the American and EU energy grids (its hot in America in the summer and an electrical shutdown would slow down the US economy and lower most people's support for this war).

I agree they certainly could if they wanted to, but there are two very obvious problems... hacking things and making normal peoples lives miserable is more America and the Wests speed and not really something Russia is probably interested in doing... of course the west loves to pretend Russia does all the bad stuff the west does and the west would never do it, or if they are caught doing it (like spying on their allies) will claim they only do it because Russia does it and they need to know what Russia or China knows or some such BS.

The second problem I see, and this is the most convincing, is that if Russia did that and got caught... (it will get blamed for it anyway to cover the lack of investment in infrastructure in the west... blame Putin when corruption and neglect is a much more obvious culprit) then would the people capitulate that easily or would they harden up and get tough and demand revenge or increase their support... or create support where there was indifference before?

If the US economy was pumping out weapons and ammo like WWII then it might be worth slowing it down, but really I don't think they would bother... except in response to the west trying to do it to them first.

IF Putin announces how he plans to react, safeguards can be put into play. By keeping his cards close to his chest he has an advantage of being able to hit in the fashion he sees most effective.

If any of those scenarios play out... US forces getting killed in Syria or US ships in the Red Sea or anywhere etc etc... the west is going to blame Putin anyway...

There's also no particular reason why Russia would have to stick with the An-12 as the platform for an operational gunship. Blackwater founder and notorious private military contractor Erik Prince had proposed converting smaller twin-engine An-26 turboprops into side-firing gunships

He is the guy that thought investing in farms in the Ukraine was a really good way to make money...

Russia probably would not benefit from converting a transport plane of any size into a gun ship... the role is a bit redundant, and too vulnerable in most situations...

The slower An-26 has smaller turn radius than the AC-130, An-12 & An-72, so it could deal with surface targets if simularly armed.

Compared with enormously expensive American guided missiles an AC-130 gunship might make some sense, but for Russia... glide bombs and cheap guided weapons... it is bit redundant really.

Newer versions can fire on the move. Very possible and easy to implement.

Correct, at a slight reduction in accuracy both the Pantsir and TOR AD systems can fire on the move, but that is only protection from weapons hitting coordinates. A weapon using laser targeting (SALH) or drone based attack system will hit moving targets as easily as it will hit stationary targets.

Currently, they will not even destroy US drones over the Black Sea

That is an excellent place to start... start dealing with their drones over the region...

Declare a no fly zone taking up most of the Black Sea and say it is a free fire zone so HATO platforms are not to enter at the risk of being mistaken for Ukrainian drones...

But everything I see so far suggests that it will be a weak move in response that will only allow the hawks in Washington more arguments over the dwindling opposition to them as to why they're safe in pushing the boundaries yet further

But you are ignoring that all this escalation by HATO has allowed Russia to also cut ties with the west and sever connections that were not healthy for Russia in the long term. Even just banning food from the EU could not have been done without EU sanctions on Russia as an escalation because as you will understand banning EU food imports violates the WTO agreement.

All the new super weapons that the west has introduced has allowed Russia to test itself against some of the best and most prized systems HATO owns... its vaunted armoured vehicles from transports and tanks through to towed and wheeled and self propelled artillery and its special super accurate super long range ammo... much of which has proven less than stellar.

Russia has adapted and neutralised the threat to the point where the next system was needed.

Before the conflict most western "experts" would say thousands of Stingers and Javelins and those drunk Russian conscripts wont be able to move... their aircraft destroyed and their armour burning in heaps... game over... meet you in Moscow to discuss terms for their surrender... hope the lights are still on and the Russian civilisation has not already collapsed...

Putin/Russia will do nothing. I'm amazed some people still believe in Kremlin.

Nothing will change your views because your views have nothing to do with reality .

You expect Putin to do nothing because you ignore all the things that have happened in the last few years and think Putin has forgotten too.

You are entitled to your opinion and look forward to seeing what happens.

Please remember what you have said though, because hearing you happy that you were so wrong will be amusing, but claiming you always believed Putin could turn around would be very annoying to say the least.

Let the US and its allies now feel the direct use of Russian weapons by third parties. These persons or regions are intentionally not named, but they can be anyone who considers U.S. and its comrades to be their enemies. Regardless of their political beliefs and international recognition.

Can someone tweet Medvedev and get him to come to this forum and check it out...

By that definition maybe I could get some things for my collection... nothing too serious... badges, uniforms, equipment... not interested in killing anyone from anywhere but I am happy to spray paint rude words around the place for some inert weapons and books and current information about Russian weapon programmes...  


Maybe a hunting rifle:



And a light recreational vehicle:

Arrow wrote:

https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1798607057966498053?t=bxTSzdqdpIpXm-2Cj9U31Q&s=19

WTF is Bruce Jenner doing at that meeting?
I thought he was locked up for... (surprise surprise...)being a nonce?

Mir wrote:

Isos wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
unlikely since they don't do it. Transitioning from road  deployment mode to march mode takes about 5 minutes to make the switch..

Newer versions can fire on the move. Very possible and easy to implement.

I believe the tracked version can fire on the move but I don't think it has entered service -  yet.

I haven't heard anything about a tracked version of the Pantsir, except for some exhibitions around eight years ago. The truck-based version has too high a center of gravity to shoot guns or missiles without hydraulic outrigger stabilizers.

flamming_python wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:No it's not
It's Ukraine hitting Russia, plain and simple
Orders could come from Ezekiel Abaddon for what it's worth, ot doesn't matter, it's still just Ukraine
Don't hate the player, just kill him

Who the fk is going to give the Ukraine ATACMS or even HIMARS, or put such systems under their command?

It's like giving a monkey a grenade. First of all they don't know how to use it. Secondly you can't trust them to use it responsibly. What if they try to use it to kill Putin next time he visits the Crimea?
It takes years to train specialists for such systems. Same reason the Patriots in the Ukraine are manned by NATO crews.

So no I'm afraid 'giving the Ukraine weapons' is just a cock & bull story.

Don't be angry at Americans for coming up with a good cover story

Logical thing now is to erase that cover story AKA keep killing Ukrainians until there aren't enough left to support the cover story

flamming_python wrote:

Who the fk is going to give the Ukraine ATACMS or even HIMARS, or put such systems under their command?

It's like giving a monkey a grenade. First of all they don't know how to use it. Secondly you can't trust them to use it responsibly. What if they try to use it to kill Putin next time he visits the Crimea?
It takes years to train specialists for such systems. Same reason the Patriots in the Ukraine are manned by NATO crews.

So no I'm afraid 'giving the Ukraine weapons' is just a cock & bull story.

You make it sound like Ukrainians are morons. If that was the case why war isn't over yet?

ATACMS and HIMARS are operated by many countries. There's nothing special about them. Same thing goes for Patriot. Ukraininan operated hundreds of S-300 systems before the war. I doubt that Patriot is much more complicated to operate.

NATO provides hardware and, most importantly, targeting info. Without it, all this hardware would be worthless.

Russia didn't show teeth when it was needed and "red lines" existed and still do, only in words. NATO constantly upped the ante during the war. Remember what Germans sent to Ukrainians at the beginning of the war (mostly helmets and body armor) and how it progressed to where we are now.

caveat emptor wrote:

You make it sound like Ukrainians are morons. If that was the case why war isn't over yet?

ATACMS and HIMARS are operated by many countries.  There's nothing special about them. Same thing goes for Patriot. Ukraininan operated hundreds of S-300 systems before the war. I doubt that Patriot is much more complicated to operate.

NATO provides hardware and, most importantly, targeting info. Without it, all this hardware would be worthless.

Russia didn't show teeth when it was needed and "red lines" existed and still do, only in words. NATO constantly upped the ante during the war. Remember what Germans sent to Ukrainians at the beginning of the war (mostly helmets and body armor) and how it progressed to where we are now.

I said this initially but Putin, Lavrov, Ryabkov sound pretty serious

People say they bluffed before Syria and Ukraine and look now

It is possible that Russia will hit NATO , without nuclear weapons OFC and through some plausibly deniable medium

But it is what it is - when the entire security council starts unanimously saying the same shit

Then you know they’re going to take action , same shit happened before 24/02/2022

PapaDragon wrote:Don't be angry at Americans for coming up with a good cover story

Logical thing now is to erase that cover story AKA keep killing Ukrainians until there aren't enough left to support the cover story

A 'good' cover story, it's not. Russia can spend 5 minutes and the same amount of effort, and then start hitting NATO territory in response.

Failure to do this in some manner or the other will lead to these attacks being steadily scaled up until Moscow and St. Petersburg and all sorts of Russian factories and air bases and whatever come under regular missile attack. Russian submarines in the Black Sea will be hunted by Ukrainian ASW vessels and torpedoes.. Ukrainians on oligarch yachts will blow up some more gas pipelines.. whatever.
By all means if you want to wait around and see my prophecy come to fruition then you have a front row seat and even more so, so do I. Like I said, doesn't look like Russia's going to do enough in response so we'll see what it all leads to shortly.

caveat emptor wrote:You make it sound like Ukrainians are morons. If that was the case why war isn't over yet?

ATACMS and HIMARS are operated by many countries.  There's nothing special about them. Same thing goes for Patriot. Ukraininan operated hundreds of S-300 systems before the war. I doubt that Patriot is much more complicated to operate.

NATO provides hardware and, most importantly, targeting info. Without it, all this hardware would be worthless.

First of all they are morons, else they would never have ended up in this situation in the first place, where they are sacrificing their entire population in a war they can't win and their allies can't win for them, and have burned all their bridges and cornered themselves with their own rhetoric to the point that even considering reopening negotiations is not an option

Secondly, these systems are complicated. The best air defense specialists are in their 40s.
The Ukraine certainly has air defence specialists, as well as Tochka operators and so on - but most of them are probably wiped out by now, and even so these are entirely different families of systems to NATO ones, running according to different standards and operating according to different doctrines.

Russia didn't show teeth when it was needed and "red lines" existed and still do, only in words. NATO constantly upped the ante during the war. Remember what Germans sent to Ukrainians at the beginning of the war (mostly helmets and body armor) and how it progressed to where we are now.

If Russia had never shown it's teeth then the SMO would have started only when the Ukrainians were already bombarding the Donbass and launching their own offensive. Or else US missiles would already have been there and Russia still wouldn't have started it. And then the Ukraine would have started the war for us, only armed even better and with US long-range missiles at their disposal and perhaps some other things.

In fact Russia tried everything to avoid escalation and war but it turned out to not be an option. The opponent didn't give Russia that option. And they're not leaving Russia with many options now either. It's either respond now, or do nothing and have to respond later to a greater provocation and a graver threat.

Karl Haushofer wrote:Putin/Russia will do nothing. I'm amazed some people still believe in Kremlin.

So far he's been winning the war while keeping Russia pretty safe. So by default I have some faith in him and his team.

But now the enemy wishes to upset that equation, and Russia will have to adapt accordingly.

Yeah Russia has to hit back, Ukraine usually builds up these PR attacks to a crescendo

The hit on the ferry was a practice run, so was S400 and Voronezh radar

They are programming a very complex attack which will bypass Russian air defense or saturate them and hit a sensitive object

They lately have been going after military infrastructure like radars and air defenses so it will be something protected and very sensitive

Maybe an NPP plant or something along those lines

Ofc this will provoke a response it just remains to be seen what the response will be

Perhaps a reminder of what a daytime salvo looks like. Or even a D-Day hit the Nazis celebration.



GEROMAN -- time will tell -@GeromanAT


Ukrainians report that the Black Sea Fleet launched three launch vehicles into the Black Sea. The total salvo was 24 Caliber.


Meanwhile

A new federal district, which will include four new regions and Crimea, will be created in the near future Said the head of the Zaporozhye region, Evgeniy Balitsky. The federal district may receive the name “Novorossiya”.

flamming_python wrote:
If Russia had never shown it's teeth then the SMO would have started only when the Ukrainians were already bombarding the Donbass and launching their own offensive. Or else US missiles would already have been there and Russia still wouldn't have started it. And then the Ukraine would have started the war for us, only armed even better and with US long-range missiles at their disposal and perhaps some other things.

Wake up call was Orange revolution in 2004. That didn't do much in a way of sobering up Russian political elites. Then 2013 came, without any activity on the Russian side before or during the event. Damage control could still be employed efficiently at the cost of several hundred lives, at most.
Misreading of the situation in Ukraine by the Russian political structures and security agencies is such blatant example of complacency. And all this after Orange revolution and Georgian war of 2008. They've hardly learnt their lesson by the start of Belarussian protests. It helped that Lukashenko was not Yanukovich and he held up mostly on his own.
After summing up results, of the "work" done in and around Ukraine, only person that was found guilty of anything was that idiot Surkov.
No wonder SMO had to happen. It has to be seen as a failure of Russian foreign policies in near abroad and not some sort of a success. By propelling and believing in  myths about one people-three countries and other nonsense, Russia was pushed with their backs against the wall and made to go for a hot war in 2022.
From a standpoint of NATO planners, it has been a resounding success. You have tens of thousands Russians killed so far, while expending some idiot Ukrainians (part of the tripartite all-Russians) in the role of cannon fodder. Why should they care if Ukrainians lose hundreds of thousands of people in the process?

Military Summary@MilitarySummary


#UkraineRussiaWar The open and aggressive position of the collective West began to irritate Putin. It is clear that he is angry. He is rarely angry, but when he is angry, very terrible things can happen.

flamming_python wrote:

A 'good' cover story, it's not. Russia can spend 5 minutes and the same amount of effort, and then start hitting NATO territory in response.

Failure to do this in some manner or the other will lead to these attacks being steadily scaled up until Moscow and St. Petersburg and all sorts of Russian factories and air bases and whatever come under regular missile attack. Russian submarines in the Black Sea will be hunted by Ukrainian ASW vessels and torpedoes.. Ukrainians on oligarch yachts will blow up some more gas pipelines.. whatever.
By all means if you want to wait around and see my prophecy come to fruition then you have a front row seat and even more so, so do I. Like I said, doesn't look like Russia's going to do enough in response so we'll see what it all leads to shortly.

About delivered weapons used on territories, "new" vs "old". Ukraine and Russia are in a state of war. Ukraine gets weapons from third countries. If you don't want Ukrainians to use western weapons on your territory, make sure those deliveries are destroyed before they are used. If you can't, shut up and take the hits.
I hope that i don't have to remind you that Soviet Union and China delivered a shit ton of weapon systems during Vietnam war.
One thing that showed that Ukrainians operate by certain rules is that they didn't even try to strike Belarussian territory during 2022 and they could according to international law, as Russian army used territory and military bases for invasion.

caveat emptor wrote:

About delivered weapons used on territories, "new" vs "old". Ukraine and Russia are in a state of war. Ukraine gets weapons from third countries. If you don't want Ukrainians to use western weapons on your territory, make sure those deliveries are destroyed before they are used. If you can't, shut up and take the hits.
I hope that i don't have to remind you that Soviet Union and China delivered a shit ton of weapon systems during Vietnam war.
One thing that showed that Ukrainians operate by certain rules is that they didn't even try to strike Belarussian territory during 2022 and they could according to international law, as Russian army used territory and military bases for invasion.

Vietnam was not US territory

Russia is being hit on its territory, this war would be over if not for US support

On top of that we’re not talking about just hitting Russian troops and bases if we are making comparisons to Vietnam

But sensitive radars, terrorism (crocus), and the Kremlin itself regardless of the fact it was a harmless drone

There is no equivalence with just “another proxy war”

Granted I agree the Russian leadership allowed this to happen with complacency

But they still need to respond, you don’t get to arm and give intel and shoot at Russian territory regardless of your proxy and their “right to defend themselves”

Russia has every right to defend itself too and if it doesn’t the escalations will only grow

Actually Israel is a good parallel for the situation with Hamas and Hezbollah

Israel will invade south Lebanon and clear out the area of short range rockets and missiles and drones that just destroyed iron dome

They’re in a bit of a same situation as Russia right now with them taking hits on bases and sensitive radars like green pine and the iron dome being destroyed yesterday

It’s literally the same exact chain of events, with Israel eventually going to invade to clear the area of Hezbollah drones and rockets that can hit Israel

And if Hezbollah escalates you can be sure that Israel will hit Iran directly

What’s good for the goose is good for the gander

Russia should destroy Ukraine, kill its leadership, and push them out of range

At the same time Russia should hit NATO in a series of conventional missiles exchanges just like Israel and Iran are doing now


If you think Israel will listen to Biden and not invade Lebanon and hit Iran - I got a bridge to sell you

You can’t just take hits on sensitive military equipment, military sites and allow a foreign enemy to arm proxies and claim they are not involved

Israel doesn’t do it, and neither can Russia

What did Israel do when Hezbollah first began its strikes?

It leveled an embassy in Syria with Iranian advisors

What happened after?

Iran hit Israel directly, and Israel responded

What happened after?

The president of Iran died

Do you understand how escalation works?

Now Iran will provoke a larger border war by giving Hezbollah increased capabilities to go after Israel directly

Do you think Israel will limit itself to weapons incursions and expanding demilitarized zone in Lebanon?

No it will continue to go after Iran directly

That’s exactly how Russia needs to treat NATO, kill their instructors, if they don’t listen then kill some generals like Aguto in Ukraine who has so far been untouched

Once NATO comes back and hits back, you hit NATO directly and you keep it going

The parallels are clear

Arkanghelsk wrote:

Vietnam was not US territory

Russia is being hit on its territory, this war would be over if not for US support

On top of that we’re not talking about just hitting Russian troops and bases if we are making comparisons to Vietnam

But sensitive radars, terrorism (crocus), and the Kremlin itself regardless of the fact it was a harmless drone

There is no equivalence with just “another proxy war”

Granted I agree the Russian leadership allowed this to happen with complacency

But they still need to respond, you don’t get to arm and give intel and shoot at Russian territory regardless of your proxy and their “right to defend themselves”

Russia has every right to defend itself too and if it doesn’t the escalations will only grow

I don't disagree with you, but there is always a plausible deniability in this case, as they can say that Ukrainians are doing the strikes, even if it doesn't make any sense militarily for them to do it (like in the case of Armavir radar). Only way to stop that is to cut Ukraine land and sea connection with the West.
As for eventual Russian reprisals, they have been only talking about it and for way too long. How do you expect from anyone to take you seriously when you don't act upon your words?

Just mobilize 500k more men and finish the war.

The current 500k Russian troops are not enough against 400k Ukrainians. 1m will be.

Well the US is saying Russia is sending ships and subs to Cuba and Venezuela for exercises

I wonder if Russia will bring nuclear weapons onboard to deliver to the Cubans and Venezuelans

Or maybe Russia can setup bases there and station their nukes there

I mean US gives nukes to many countries and so far Russia just has helped Belarus

Why not station some in La Orchilla and Havana to even it up?