Are we going to see a retaliation or counter-escalation or will it just be swept under the rug after a bunch of warnings and Telegram posts?
Russian special military operation in Ukraine #58
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Are we going to see a retaliation or counter-escalation or will it just be swept under the rug after a bunch of warnings and Telegram posts?
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flamming_python wrote:
Are we going to see a retaliation or counter-escalation or will it just be swept under the rug after a bunch of warnings and Telegram posts?
Is that a serious question?
Belousov just talked with Lloyd Austin, they already did sweep it under the rug with some pschizo posting and “possible escalation”
Not going to do anything, I’d mind my security if I was you as the government has only encouraged terrorism and attacks on civilians
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- Post n°603
USSR
zare wrote:USSR had Warsaw Pact and client nations throughout the world. USSR also had an absolutist system where standard of living was provided by the government in exchange for doing a job.
Russia has no such system, they don't have a strong tied military alliance with millions of personnel and equipment in foreign countries. Russia doesn't prop up client nations with money and guns as USSR did with communist states, Russia trades with foreign partners. Russia doesn't have to provide housing and commodities for everyone. Remember how Poland had shops with western-exclusive gadgets like walkmans they had to subsidize heavily to have prices even affordable for "comrades on high positions". USSR also did that with imports, if imports were in consumers chain their internal price would be adapted to what can be paid by the domestic consumer, the difference in cost would be covered by the state.
USSR did not blow up due to high-tech military spending. USSR was slowly crumbling due to its internal and external cost of political operations. The weight of new military spending such as subs, nuclear cruisers, 4th gen aircraft and stuff was just thrown atop so everything broke down fast.
Re. NATO it's all fine and dandy but where are they going to collect 100.000 regular soldiers to stop Russia once Russia depletes Ukraine of its manpower? NATO may be able to boost military spending and invest into production to somewhat come to level with Russian numbers, although that's debatable and IMO unrealistic, they may have 1000s of generals and instructors and experts and whatnot, but without soldiers it's all meaningless. Consider that Russia removed a few hundred thousand Ukr soldiers from the field, even if NATO could muster 100k people for fight, those soldiers would have to fight at least 5x as effectively. Consider that Ukrainian soldier's incentive for war might be patriotism or fright from fleeing due to motivational troops or both. NATO forces don't fight for their country and they don't have anti-flee measures. So all the techno-gizmos they can use because they have native training is like a 10x multiplier? Sure.
And hundred thousand people is a lot. A lot. If EU could motivate 100.000 people of younger age to start working in industrial sector Russia would be in bigger problem now and EU economy would be on the rise. Young people here do not want to work in 3 shifts, they do not want to work "old-school" non-creative quota based jobs. Good luck in trying to motivate them for war outside their own country.
Btw. they're measuring social perception about willingness to fight Russia in polls, basing their warmongering on that. Only a % of people claiming they would fight, would actually enlist. Only a % of those would pass basic physical checks. Only a % of those would actually pass the training. Only a % of those trained, would not have a mental breakdown once they reach the frontline.
The USSR collapsed due to ideological rot and corruption - not any inevitable economic burden. The USSR of 1980 was far wealthier and the standards of living far higher than in 1940 or 1950.
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calripson wrote:
The USSR of 1980 was far wealthier and the standards of living far higher than in 1940 or 1950.
Well quite obviously as much of the Soviet union was flattened during Great Patriotic War! The 50's was a rebuilding period for the Soviets, but the common people was still dirt poor and had to work their asses off to rebuild the country. It was only in the 60's that the Soviets managed to recover. The 60's was a bloom period for the Soviet people. Now they could live in an apartment provided by the state and not whole families cramped in just one room.
Actually in the 80's the situation was becoming worse once again. For example - too much resources was poured into the military to counter Reagan's space war hoax.
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Another important point to consider is that the US won't be able to point all their nuclear weapons towards Russia because they need it against countries like India.GarryB wrote:I would say only one of those is true... Russias nukes work and are more advanced than western nukes, and Russian air defence and ABM systems are likely going to be rather more successful than any system the west uses... not 100% of course but significant.
This was conformed by a Pentagon insider earlier this month - "If we're reduced to 30% of our capacity, we can't allow India to have a superior civilization in a post-nuclear conflict."
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Russia can't afford to be in a symmetric arms race again.
https://regnum.ru/news/3898206?utm_campaign=regnum&utm_term=top_material
https://youtu.be/9eUD5mSC1zU
https://www.ng.ru/world/2024-06-25/6_9035_india.html?print=Y
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@peacemaket71
Expulsion of the Ukrainian diplomat from the Czech Republic.....
Extraordinary statement by Foreign Minister Lipavský in connection with the revelation of the organization of the assassination of the elected Slovak president Petr Pelligrini.
In connection with the organization of the assassination of Slovak President Petr Pelligrini on the territory of the Czech Republic by the Ukrainian citizen Marunič V., Mr. Vitalij Usatyj Chargé d'affaires a.i. of Ukraine in the Czech Republic is declared persona non grata.
After an extraordinary meeting with President Petr Pavlo in connection with the revealed preparation of an assassination on the territory of our state against the President of the Slovak Republic Petr Pelligrini, a Ukrainian citizen and agent of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Marunič V., Ukraine's chargé d'affaires in the Czech Republic Mr. Vitalij Usatyj is declared for persona non grata. He is ordered to leave the Czech Republic within 48 hours of the publication of this public notice.
How will the objective and completely truthful mass media deal with it?) Silence on the footpath, how else....
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Pray to God it stays that way because the end of the war is going to unleash armies of men who are well-versed in assembling and operating FPV drones and its going to be open season on every commentator who has had dodgy opsec.PapaDragon wrote:
This forum is forgotten butthole of the old internet that nobody knows even exists anymore
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3 to 4.000 Banderites paid with their lifes in that time.Are we going to see a retaliation
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Hole wrote:3 to 4.000 Banderites paid with their lifes in that time.Are we going to see a retaliation
It's not about revenge, it's about results
Those 3 to 4.000 Ukrainian peasants don't mean shit to the Ukrainian higher ups and their NATO partners in crime who came up with these attacks.
What matters to them are their own lives.
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https://original.antiwar.com/Jeffrey_Sachs/2024/06/25/why-wont-the-us-help-negotiate-a-peaceful-end-to-the-war-in-ukraine/
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The size of the UK, French and German armies is a total joke. I hear some number of 300,000 NATzO EU forces ready to fight. BS. This must
include every possible human associated with these armies from the janitors to the catering staff. The total official armies of these three countries
sum up to less than 200,000. Mobilization from reserves? Maybe, but the inference being spread is that the 300,000 is a standing army.
Russia has added 700,000 net new soldiers to its army through mobilization of reserves and volunteers. One has to subtract attrition which comes
to around 200,000 in my estimation (assuming 3:1 WIA:KIA). That leaves 500,000 which is on top of the 1.2 million Russian army before the SMO.
NATzO will have to raise an army over 2 million strong to attack Russia. But of course they won't and their only move is nuclear war. This implies
their own deletion, and if there is any rational thinking in the NATzO decider clique, then there will be no war on Russia.
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flamming_python wrote:So 3 days since the attack on the beach in Crimea
Are we going to see a retaliation or counter-escalation or will it just be swept under the rug after a bunch of warnings and Telegram posts?
Swept under the rug it seems...Looks like Putin is biding his time to see if Trump wins so he can have talks in 2025 to end the war...Beijing will host these talks is my guess...
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KVS wrote:.....then there will be no war on Russia.
It bothers me ! All these super duper nuclear fallout shelters in the USA . If I remember right the wealthy elite are building underground cities in joint operations . Places complete with shopping malls ! The elite may be crazy enough , to think a nuclear war is survivable ! Does their insatiable greed for illicit pleasures that money can buy , blind them to the reality of their mortality ? They are so addicted to hedonistic lifestyle that they would rather die than risk loosing it ? Yes perhaps rationality should not be expected of them . And with their finger on the nuclear trigger .......live and let ( the world ) die ! Therefore not sure about " no war on Russia . "
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billybatts91 wrote:flamming_python wrote:So 3 days since the attack on the beach in Crimea
Are we going to see a retaliation or counter-escalation or will it just be swept under the rug after a bunch of warnings and Telegram posts?
Swept under the rug it seems...Looks like Putin is biding his time to see if Trump wins so he can have talks in 2025 to end the war...Beijing will host these talks is my guess...
If he is naive enough to think he can talk with NATO and its Ukrainian puppets, then he is indeed an idiot. My fear is you are right. My hope is that Putin retaliates in times and manners of his choosing.
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According to Douglas Bush, assistant head of the US Department of Defense, the administration intends to achieve monthly production of 100,000. Missiles by the end of 2025
https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/21213889
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Mir wrote:Did they say how many barrels they can produce?
They have not reached this, focusing on ammunition first
Soon they will realize that what they are left with is catapulting this brand shiny new ammo
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Arrow wrote:By the end of 2024, the United States will be able to produce 70,000. -80 thousand 155 mm artillery shells per month, which will allow Washington to support Ukraine more actively.
According to Douglas Bush, assistant head of the US Department of Defense, the administration intends to achieve monthly production of 100,000. Missiles by the end of 2025
https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/21213889
Those numbers are BS. So they will increment by 50,000 in 2024 but only 25,000 in 2025. It usually works the other way around.
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It needs years to restock at this - even most optimistic - peak.
Good luck replacing made in 70s war stock of ammo with shiny new ones, $8000 a piece
In the meantime, Russkie will steadily make 3+ mln a year for $300 a piece, restocking.
And using whole trains of Korean ammo they have in tens of mlns for disposal
When the stock of old stuff will dry out - they will supply fresh new at $100 a piece. Paid in food products, technology transfer or machinery that will require are parts and maintenance later. Bringing added value to the contract for Russkie.
And just wonder how is nitrocellulose production doing in the west?
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Incidentally, as the Russians do not react in the way the US/UK would expect they have gained effective escalation dominance, as the US/UK have no clue as to whether what they think as an escalation will actually be acted on such by the Russians. Until one day it is.
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
President Putin proved once again that he’s mature enough of a leader to make tough decisions that disregard public opinion following his government’s tepid response to Ukraine’s US-backed bombing of beachgoers in Sevastopol over the weekend. It was predicted that “Russia Probably Won’t Impose A No-Fly Zone Over The Black Sea After The Sevastopol Attack”, which explained why it was unlikely to capitulate to the public’s demand due to worries about accidentally sparking World War III.
Instead of shooting down or otherwise neutralizing American reconnaissance drones over international waters in the Black Sea, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reaffirmed that President Putin’s ceasefire proposal still stands. Shortly afterwards, Peskov also expressed Russia’s continued openness to talks with France after Emmanuel Macron publicly said that he’s interested in them the other day while also walking back his earlier rhetoric about wanting to conventionally intervene in Ukraine.
These two developments were then followed by new Defense Minister Andrey Belousov talking to his American counterpart in a call where “they exchanged views about the situation around Ukraine”. He also warned him about “the dangers of further escalation in terms of the continuing deliveries of American weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.” Taken together, it’s clearly the case that Russia’s response was once again conciliatory and not escalatory, exactly as the earlier cited analysis predicted.
Interestingly, these developments were interspersed with the viral fake news claim that Russia had already supposedly downed an American drone over the Black Sea in revenge, which was introduced into the information ecosystem here but was then quickly walked back by its originator here. Nevertheless, this claim wildly proliferated across social media because it conformed to many wishful thinking observers’ expectations, most of whom never came across the follow-up post walking it back.
The reason why it’s so important to clarify exactly what Russia’s response to last weekend’s provocation was, namely to continue its conciliatory approach for de-escalation purposes as opposed to risking World War III by miscalculation if it reacted as the public demanded, is to prevent false expectations. Those who get their hopes unrealistically high will inevitably experience deep disappointment, after which some might become susceptible to hostile narratives that Russia “sold out” or whatever.
Whether one agrees with the merits of its saintly restraint or not, the fact of the matter is that this is indeed the policy that President Putin has decided to promulgate for the reasons that were explained. While it’s possible that he might order a symbolic show of force by authorizing the shooting down or neutralization of an American drone in the coming future, his tepid response thus far suggests that he’s disinclined to do so, or that it would solely be a one-off in the unlikely event that it happens.
President Putin isn’t a “madman”, “monster”, or “mastermind” like many imagine that he is, but is a consummate pragmatist at least as how he sees himself and is therefore unlikely to ever do anything that could be spun as emotional or radical. He always takes a long time before making major decisions, with the proof being how long it took for him to commence Russia’s aerial intervention in Syria and the ongoing special operation, usually waiting till the last possible moment.
Likewise, if Russia does indeed decide to seriously escalate against the West, then the track record suggests that it would be a seemingly abrupt game-changer but preceded by clear statements of intent that could be seen in hindsight as “ultimatums” (despite being described differently by its diplomats). Some might interpret a few of its recent signals as hinting at that scenario, but the substance of its response thus far as was explained dispels that notion and suggests that the current policy will continue.
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Are we going to see a retaliation or counter-escalation or will it just be swept under the rug after a bunch of warnings and Telegram posts?
Half the fun is not indicating what is going to happen and let them stew and think the worst...
There is no deadline for the response...
For all we know the response might have been a shift in the border for Ukraine to the west.
The USSR collapsed due to ideological rot and corruption - not any inevitable economic burden. The USSR of 1980 was far wealthier and the standards of living far higher than in 1940 or 1950.
But that was the problem... the core imperial country was carrying all its colony states and boosting their standard of living at the expense of the mother country...
For example - too much resources was poured into the military to counter Reagan's space war hoax.
I don't rate Star Wars as a big drain on the budget... the cruise missiles and spending on the air defence is probably the biggest ticket item, and their performance in the current conflict suggests it was actually money well spent IMHO.
Another important point to consider is that the US won't be able to point all their nuclear weapons towards Russia because they need it against countries like India.
And China of course. Plus of course after all the fireworks go off I wonder if people from central and south America might keep moving north to see what is left and pick the ruins...
This was conformed by a Pentagon insider earlier this month - "If we're reduced to 30% of our capacity, we can't allow India to have a superior civilization in a post-nuclear conflict."
But see the undertone.... by the same measure they wouldn't be able to allow Russia or China or India... or dare I say it ...Europe survive and take over... they want to control the world and no one else is allowed to take their place... even when they are dead.
That is the leader of the western world everyone in the west supports... because Russia or China are evil.
Think about that.
Russia can't afford to be in a symmetric arms race again.
Of course it can, because this time around it is a part of BRICS but does not have to support BRICS on its own with its money and resources. It will share resources with BRICS countries and together they will develop and grow and work together... the market for goods and services is enormous and no one country is going to supply it all... everyone is going to supply to everyone and everyone is going to receive what it doesn't make for itself.
Pray to God it stays that way because the end of the war is going to unleash armies of men who are well-versed in assembling and operating FPV drones and its going to be open season on every commentator who has had dodgy opsec.
I have had a few people ask for their accounts to be deleted, and also a few have stopped posting. I hope they will resume when this conflict is over but I can't be sure.
Those 3 to 4.000 Ukrainian peasants don't mean shit to the Ukrainian higher ups and their NATO partners in crime who came up with these attacks.
What matters to them are their own lives.
Those 3-4K Orcs is the result that is going to end this conflict sooner rather than later... flashy show attacks that don't kill civilians (because the Russian military is not the war crime specialist the west and the Ukrainians are) takes time to organise and of course the western media and the Russian 5th column will ignore it and claim Putin did nothing and is weak... blah blah blah.
NATzO will have to raise an army over 2 million strong to attack Russia. But of course they won't and their only move is nuclear war. This implies
their own deletion, and if there is any rational thinking in the NATzO decider clique, then there will be no war on Russia.
But most importantly... the bigger the army the more targets for cluster munition armed Russian missiles that HATO defences don't seem capable of stopping... the death toll would be horrendous and the huge concentrations of HATO troops and their expert training wont protect them... their armour and soldiers would be horribly vulnerable unless they do what the Ukrainians did and hide amongst civilians...
Will they do that?
They will have to...
They are so addicted to hedonistic lifestyle that they would rather die than risk loosing it ? Yes perhaps rationality should not be expected of them . And with their finger on the nuclear trigger .......live and let ( the world ) die ! Therefore not sure about " no war on Russia . "
I am sure people will point out to them that WWIII is going to have a catastrophic effect on international trade and the US imports a lot of stuff so after WWIII has happened they are going to have to do without a lot of things... including electricity and sewerage and rubbish collection and lots of other important things that big cities can't operate without. Without fuel, which will be burned up rather quickly lots of other things are going to be a problem and without electricity a lot of freezers are going to shut down and let an enormous amount of food rot. A city with millions of people becomes a zoo very quickly... what cop is going to do his job when his family is at home and not safe. How do you feed a million people living so close together... cats and dogs and rats and birds are going to rapidly disappear. Cockroaches might become a staple of the American diet... of course because of the radiation they might be as big as horses.
I would say most people living in a 1 million plus city would probably have preferred to get hit by a nuke in comparison to the long slow death ahead of them.
Criminals will love it.
By the end of 2024, the United States will be able to produce 70,000. -80 thousand 155 mm artillery shells per month, which will allow Washington to support Ukraine more actively.
And who is going to fire them... and how many of these shells will reach the front line and be fired at the Russian forces?
Did they say how many barrels they can produce?
And what size crew is needed to operate the gun, let alone all the truck drivers that deliver these shells from HATO to the front line.
Of course.... that is their strategy.... advance backwards so the distance their support and supplies have to travel to reach the front line is much shorter...
They have spent a few mln pieces from own stocks, having those emptied.
It needs years to restock at this - even most optimistic - peak.
Good luck replacing made in 70s war stock of ammo with shiny new ones, $8000 a piece
Not to mention the modern long range high pressure ammo seems to wear out barrels rather faster than the older ammo, and of course the older guns still in use might not like the new higher pressure ammo... I hope they are checking that carefully because when they start getting that wrong...
And just wonder how is nitrocellulose production doing in the west?
Big orders for cotton to China I suspect... very important ingredient they don't have enough of it seems...
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An interesting explanation of why Putin and the Government are not reacting in the way that some here are desperate for them to.
For those hoping Putin will unleash a terrorist attack on the west don't understand Putin.
Nazis and Ukrainians might think that is acceptable behaviour, but Putin is not that person... and you can cry and whine and complain, but at the end of the day when the truth is made plain to the Ukraine (I doubt the west will ever hear the truth), it will be obvious who the good guys were and who the bad guys were.
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Being on the right side of history means squat when you are dead.
Committing terrorism as a response is the wrong thing to do indeed. But striking at Ukraines command and political forces should be done to show that their commands and actions have consequences.
As of right now, they act with impunity all while innocent Russian lives are lost and more become easy targets because their government is too afraid to act.
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