Russian special military operation in Ukraine #58

kvs wrote:

China clearly had ans still has a faction that is pro-west.   That is why the covid lab was operating with NIH money there.   It is also clear from behaviour of Chinese companies that
they are not part of a big anti-western band.   Russia has this sort of complexity as well.   Countries are not people and cannot be treated as such.

Same is true for the west. A lot of people hate western policies and side by Russian vision of not medelling in other countries politics.

What's Flying Over the Black Sea? How the Russian Army Will Fulfil the Order to Clear the Skies Over Crimea, by Dmitry Plotnikov for Military Pravda. 06.28.2024.

We won’t completely push NATO out of the Black Sea, but we will push it back.

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation instructed the General Staff of the Russian Army to make proposals for measures to promptly respond to provocations in the Black Sea.

The goal has been set

These provocations provide intelligence to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and greatly increase the likelihood of incidents with the Russian Aerospace Forces. Which in turn increases the risk of direct confrontation between NATO and us.

What will they do with them now? Shoot them down with weapons? Unlikely. Destroying an alliance UAV (no matter how much we would like it) is an act of aggression. Most likely, we are talking about unarmed influence here. For example, the recent "turbulence" or the same tried and tested method of "accidentally" dropping jet fuel along the drone's route.

We must take into account that we will not completely squeeze NATO out of the waters. They will fly in Bulgarian or Romanian airspace. However, this will greatly reduce the capabilities of the military bloc.

What flies over Crimea?

A considerable part of the satellites over the Black Sea and Crimea are commercial spacecraft, which can easily be used to collect information before carrying out combat missions (for example, missile strikes).

This information is collected by satellites from Planet Labs or Maxar. They are not directly related to the Pentagon, but don’t go to your grandmother, they collect important data on the military infrastructure on the Crimean peninsula and nearby. Undoubtedly, all this is transferred to the US Department of Defence, then to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

At the same time, there could be up to 40 foreign devices in that location: from communications satellites to NATO reconnaissance aircraft.

The most regulars there are:

American Lemur 2 Vu (aircraft and ship tracking).
German NetSat (communications).
South Korean KOMPSAT 3 (Earth remote sensing).
Japanese BIRD 2 (Earth Remote Sensing).
Australian RAAF MS-A (aircraft and ship tracking).
American Gunsmoke-J (Pentagon, reconnaissance satellite).
Japanese Shizuku (Earth remote sensing).
American EOS PM Aqua (Earth Remote Sensing).
American Capella 6 (Whitney 4) (Earth remote sensing).
American Hatchling v.0.2 (Earth remote sensing).

Yes, solving the problems with the RQ-4 drones off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula will complicate data collection and make it difficult to plan strikes. But after this threat is eliminated, the US still has a large satellite constellation, the potential of which may be somewhat limited in terms of intelligence collection, but is still quite high.

The question also remains of what to do with manned reconnaissance aircraft in the air.

Conclusion

Perhaps the best antidote here would be the closest possible support for the scouts, taking the aircraft "in a box", interfering with the work, maneuvering by draining kerosene and parallel flights.

Is it dangerous? Without a doubt, the danger of various incidents is quite high, which means that rescue ships should already be in the squares of operation of combat aviation pilots of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

After all, here you may have to save not only your heroes, but also all kinds of intelligence officers of the North Atlantic Alliance. And it will be very nice if our rescue teams save the NATO members...

https://military.pravda.ru/2051533-polnostju/

Yesterday Trump, in the beating he gave to the senile Biden, win the presidency of the United States and hinted that he will negotiate with Russia. Basically it is not going to give more money to the Ukrainians. "Ending" the conflict will present it as its first foreign policy victory.
It is important that Russia advances in these months because the pact with Trump will be to maintain the pro-Russian territories and the non-entry of the Ucros into NATO (Trump does not care about NATO or Europe)

Arrow wrote:

Trump won't change anything, even children know that. What he says in public now is nonsense.

You are a fool who doesn't understand politics. Of course things change.
If you're European, get your ass ready for Russia.

Mir wrote:You seem to be stuck in the early 80's. A lot has changed since then!

Your expectations are what exactly? A two digit IQ person from some third world failed state will be up to speed with what's happening in the developed world.

In posts above about Putin's lack of retaliation, the point is made that NATzO drones are operating in international air space. This is irrelevant. International
air space or ocean waters are not a shield for aggression. The US loves to claim that its navy has the "right" to sail 12 nautical miles from the coast. But
the "law" (really convention and precedent) applies to non-hostile shipping. The same applies to aircraft. Putin is not being a law-respecting goody in this
case. His inaction is about NATzO lunatics escalating to nuclear war.

NATzO drones are legitimate targets wherever they are, including in NATzO airspace. The only issue is how NATzO will react to any pushback. In addition to having
its propaganda orifices spew floods of propaganda excrement, it may decide to attack Russia and lead to a rapid escalation to nuclear war. The NATzO
chutzpah monkeys feel they are invincible. That this is mere brain rot does not make the situation better for Russia.

ArgentinaGuard wrote:Yesterday Trump, in the beating he gave to the senile Biden, win the presidency of the United States and hinted that he will negotiate with Russia. Basically it is not going to give more money to the Ukrainians. "Ending" the conflict will present it as its first foreign policy victory.
It is important that Russia advances in these months because the pact with Trump will be to maintain the pro-Russian territories and the non-entry of the Ucros into NATO (Trump does not care about NATO or Europe)

What guarantee can Trump give of anything?

Merkel and Macron signed a legally binding document which said Ukraine had to abide by the conditions of the Minsk Agreements

They later admitted it was to buy time to arm Ukraine

Any agreement signed by Trump is not binding at all, there is 0 reason to sign any deal

If anything purported negotiations should be used as theater to appease foreign observers who buy into the “unprovoked” bs

In reality , the most Russia can hope for is the removal of Zelensky as Putin and the SVR stated in Vietnam

And by then, Zaluzhny or some military authority probably withdraws to the Dnieper line

To continue the war but on some terms that are more favorable to NATO (like being closer to NATO bases and more advantageous use of air power, expose extended Russian logistics, etc)

In this case, by 2025 with Zelensky ousted and a military junta for real running Kiev, they can withdraw to Dnieper, and transition to guerilla/air pin pricks on Russian forces that pull up to Dnepropetrovsk , Zaporozhye, and Kiev

Obviously by then the original 4 regions would have already been liberated, and the Ukrainian defensive positions rendered untenable in the east

Naturally it’s the only way they can really avoid the attrition that’s destroying their economies and hurting them politically as we see in recent elections in Europe and US debates

It’s clear the winds of politics are changing, that in itself won’t change much in terms of the position of parties - but will change the configuration of leaders and renewed tactics of those new leaders

billybatts91 wrote:Swept under the rug it seems...Looks like Putin is biding his time to see if Trump wins so he can have talks in 2025 to end the war...Beijing will host these talks is my guess...

I don't think Putin has any big hopes pinned on Trump. The Russian leadership and media have been pretty skeptical about him over the past year and this is a good reflection of the actual thinking of Putin and the security council.

Rather what we're dealing with is indecision and denial on the part of the Russian higher-ups, in my view. Of course, we're not privy to their conversations, but the effectiveness of their strategy of deterrence has been 0 and they're not coming up with any new ideas.

JohninMK wrote:Incidentally, as the Russians do not react in the way the US/UK would expect they have gained effective escalation dominance, as the US/UK have no clue as to whether what they think as an escalation will actually be acted on such by the Russians. Until one day it is.

That's the problem. It will go from 0 to 100 real quick

They acted the same way in the Ukraine, put their head in the sand for 8 years effectively and in the end had to launch a major military operation which grew into the largest war since Korea.
Now you can argue certainly in that case that Russia was too weak back in 2015 to act, but that's not the case now.

Nip it in the bud, there's an expression the Russian leadership should take to heart

GarryB wrote:Half the fun is not indicating what is going to happen and let them stew and think the worst...

There is no deadline for the response...

For all we know the response might have been a shift in the border for Ukraine to the west.

Then what good is such a response which is delayed a year or two into the future? What does it achieve?

Does it stop the terrorist attacks against Russian civilians? No
Does it stop the steady escalation? No

Russia will decide the Ukraine's borders anyway by virtue of winning the war, or the West deciding to return to negotiations and secure their own withdrawal; in which case these provocations won't determine the borders that are decided upon either.
That's in the best case of course. The worst case is we end up in WW3 which the non-reactions to these events are helping along.

Those 3-4K Orcs is the result that is going to end this conflict sooner rather than later... flashy show attacks that don't kill civilians (because the Russian military is not the war crime specialist the west and the Ukrainians are) takes time to organise and of course the western media and the Russian 5th column will ignore it and claim Putin did nothing and is weak... blah blah blah.

The danger, and it's a very real one, is that the West will not let Russia win the war by attrition, it will keep provoking Russia until internal pressure or military losses force Russia to retaliate anyway. Your answer here is about pretending that nothing's happening. But that can't work for long.

I do generally agree with the logic of delaying any escalation for the purpose of destroying as much as possible of the Ukraine's army first. For that reason I was never gun-ho about striking towards Odessa or Kiev like many here were; better to fight the enemy closer to the home turf and minimize the chance of any rash moves by NATO.
But it's a different thing when they insist on coming your way anyway.

nomadski wrote:Thinking about Russia's report about intercepting missile over Beach in Crimea , and submunitions  then dispersing  . I think interception did happen , because the bomblets did not explode on landing . Well most of them !  I am thinking the normal procedure for release and arming of fuse ( electric fuse ) did not happen , therefore intercept took place . But it was when Rocket was in near terminal phase , the projectiles landing almost vertical !

They were targeting the military facility 600m from the beach.

But like I said, I don't really care. And Russians in general don't really care.
The fact that they are bold enough to make such an attack now, so close to civilians, involving NATO specialists and the command structure, where before they wouldn't have risked either against that target or using those means - requires a response in and of itself.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Any truth to the claim that DPRK is sending dngineering troops to Ukraine? Military Summary Channel claims so.

Don't expect any sort of official confirmation. The info has been floated through some source somewhere, that's all you're going to get. If North Korean troops are evidenced in the Donbass rebuilding bridges or whatever in several months time, so then there's your answer.

kvs wrote:In posts above about Putin's lack of retaliation, the point is made that NATzO drones are operating in international air space.   This is irrelevant.   International
air space or ocean waters are not a shield for aggression.   The US loves to claim that its navy has the "right" to sail 12 nautical miles from the coast.   But
the "law" (really convention and precedent) applies to non-hostile shipping.   The same applies to aircraft.   Putin is not being a law-respecting goody in this
case.   His inaction is about NATzO lunatics escalating to nuclear war.  

NATzO drones are legitimate targets wherever they are, including in NATzO airspace.  The only issue is how NATzO will react to any pushback.  In addition to having
its propaganda orifices spew floods of propaganda excrement, it may decide to attack Russia and lead to a rapid escalation to nuclear war.   The NATzO
chutzpah monkeys feel they are invincible.   That this is mere brain rot does not make the situation better for Russia.    

Those NATO drones flying above the Black Sea are providing targeting and reconnaissance data for NATO and Ukrainian missile systems against Russian targets. They are part of the kill chain leading up to the attack, therefore they are legitimate and hostile targets.

They should be immediately shot down. But this cannot be the only response either.

ArgentinaGuard wrote:Yesterday Trump, in the beating he gave to the senile Biden, win the presidency of the United States and hinted that he will negotiate with Russia. Basically it is not going to give more money to the Ukrainians. "Ending" the conflict will present it as its first foreign policy victory.
It is important that Russia advances in these months because the pact with Trump will be to maintain the pro-Russian territories and the non-entry of the Ucros into NATO (Trump does not care about NATO or Europe)

You're in denial about Trump due to your idealogical affinity with him

It's true he was for 'getting along' with Russia, but that was before the war and chiefly as a means of separating it from its growing alignment with China.

Otherwise he's as much for Western hegemony as any Tom, Dick or Harry on Capitol Hill. Maybe not in the same way as the globalists, he has no globalhomo ideology and mass migration to push or whatever, but definitely he will pursue the policy of America remaining the top dog and tackling any threats to that. Which was China for him in the first instance.
It's the same with Marine Le Pen in France, or Meloni in Italy. They are the same Eurocentrists who foresee only a world in which the West will remain on top, whatever the form of that West is. If they see a place for Russia in that, then only as part of their club, which unlike the globalists they may be prepared to invite Russia into.

But they are not for BRICS, multipolarity and all this stuff - and it is this which is the future, not them.

Now Trump, ideally, may want to propose Russia some sort of peace offer, and as a hardheaded pragmatist he will have no problem underwriting Russia's new territories either. But his price for that is going to be Russia's alliance with China. Which is a non-starter.

As stated before it doesn't really matter if donestk goes to Russia or Odessa or Kiev go to either Russia or Ukraine. Full demilitarization or no NATO ascension means in Russia's proposed peace treaty that no NATO or military supplies by foreign powers go into the country as in if the war is over they will make sure another gayops shit doesn't happen that would allow Ukraine to build up their forces again and attack Russia. I am assuming this will be the biggest necessity or requirement that Russia wants out of this war if Trump is to get a peace plan. Full disarmament of Ukraine with full control of what goes in and out of Ukraine's border is going to be the hardest negotiation the west will have with Russia because it would be as if the entire country is annexed to Russia just with the name Ukraine on it. Think of it like lets say the UK asks Ukraine they want to put a naval base in Odessa and than Russia butts in and tells the UK to **** off. It would also be extremely weird putting Ukraine into the EU without Russia using Ukraine as a subsidary to get into the EU market with whoever the elected Ukraine puppets will be by them.

I am assuming we will not be in WW3 from this date to November 5 but more than likely be in WW3 from November 6 to January 20. Biden I think is fucked anyways from last night debate and starting a WW3 in his term would make even California, New York and Illinois swing red while destorying the influence of the democratic party as well. Trump let out one red flag that Zelensky probably didnt like about all the money being spent on Ukraine so he seems that he wants to immediately end it. Technically speaking he can agree with the Ukraine no NATO ascension and demilitirzation plan with Russia and be like hey see look I stopped the war in Ukraine which to the public eye would look great and maybe overshadow the fact that Ukraine has been annexed with just the Ukraine nametag on it.

Zelensky made as much goofy faces 1st speaking with Trump before than Biden did with his last debate with him. Even though Zelensky was chill with Biden we do not know if he is chill with Trump. I think even Trump said in the debate that Ukraine is losing. Trump will probably ask him you will go from being our puppet to Russia's puppet if they allow it(probably no) or seek refuge to the U.S. and let Russia select a ukrainian puppet president to run Ukraine while still calling parts of it as Ukraine and everyone is a winner while not knowing the fact the country is annexed with just the name tag Ukraine on the map. Because of the betrayal on the Minsk agreements the no NATO ascension or full disarmement of Ukraine will be one of the key agreements Russia will not let go of which Trump is more than likely aware of he is to strike a deal with them.

ArgentinaGuard wrote:Yesterday Trump, in the beating he gave to the senile Biden, win the presidency of the United States and hinted that he will negotiate with Russia. Basically it is not going to give more money to the Ukrainians. "Ending" the conflict will present it as its first foreign policy victory.
It is important that Russia advances in these months because the pact with Trump will be to maintain the pro-Russian territories and the non-entry of the Ucros into NATO (Trump does not care about NATO or Europe)

It doesnt matter what territories they will grab or not it is rather if Trump and his administration will agree with Russia's full disarmament proposal for Ukraine that gives Russia control and oversight what goes in and out of Ukraine's borders to prevent another war in the future. If the agreement is a yes than it won't matter if Odessa or Kiev are in Ukraine or Russia's control because Russia government and military have controls of Ukraine's territory and not the Ukrainian government or military who are disarmed.

If Trump can't strike a deal with that necessity of a requirement that Russia is requesting to get anywhere with a peace plan. The best he can do is block congress trying to send billion dollar packages to Ukraine because he seemed openly upset about money wasted in the war on that debate.

Maybe Trump can't be trusted like Biden because Duda besides Orban already paid him a visit before like he is already going to win this election and Poland's current government has a Warhawk stance as much as the current Biden administration to prevent Russia from winning which wont happen so Duda for all we know might be trying to say you got my back if we ignore article 5 and go to Russia, right Trump? for all we know.

A lot is being said . Too many words . It gets confusing to think what exactly should be done . It can lead to indecision and inertia . I think you know what I mean . At these times a decision has to be made , but our minds don't stretch that far . Then we rely on our gut feelings or instincts . That is if we have healthy guts and are not emotionally ill . I have my suspicion that Russia leadership also is quite instinctive . They have to be in these difficult times . Operant conditioning works on an individual . But a country is composed of many individuals , and classes . Who should be thought a lesson ?

It now seems likely that Russia wants to put IRBM's back into production. That should seriously strengthen the anti-war sentiment in Europe.
It should be at the top of the priority list.

Trump said he will talk but he also said he wont accept territory handovers but he did say its really not up to him on what Ukraine agrees to, he might agree to a no NATO agreement for Ukraine however since you all know nothing how US works government wise.

Unless this is drafted into a law or standard congress must pass to vote to admen etc "does the majority agree to remove the NATO clause" The president who will replace trump if he gets into office again can merely sign a piece of paper and undo it.

I know for a fact congress would never vote to pass such a thing, so that a future president cannot undo it as thats the only way to stop them from doing it

All in all your clock is tick tocking

thegopnik wrote:

ArgentinaGuard wrote:Yesterday Trump, in the beating he gave to the senile Biden, win the presidency of the United States and hinted that he will negotiate with Russia. Basically it is not going to give more money to the Ukrainians. "Ending" the conflict will present it as its first foreign policy victory.
It is important that Russia advances in these months because the pact with Trump will be to maintain the pro-Russian territories and the non-entry of the Ucros into NATO (Trump does not care about NATO or Europe)

It doesnt matter what territories they will grab or not it is rather if Trump and his administration will agree with Russia's full disarmament proposal for Ukraine that gives Russia control and oversight what goes in and out of Ukraine's borders to prevent another war in the future. If the agreement is a yes than it won't matter if Odessa or Kiev are in Ukraine or Russia's control because Russia government and military have controls of Ukraine's territory and not the Ukrainian government or military who are disarmed.

If Trump can't strike a deal with that necessity of a requirement that Russia is requesting to get anywhere with a peace plan. The best he can do is block congress trying to send billion dollar packages to Ukraine because he seemed openly upset about money wasted in the war on that debate.

Maybe Trump can't be trusted like Biden because Duda besides Orban already paid him a visit before like he is already going to win this election and Poland's current government has a Warhawk stance as much as the current Biden administration to prevent Russia from winning which wont happen so Duda for all we know might be trying to say you got my back if we ignore article 5 and go to Russia, right Trump? for all we know.

watch the debate, Trump said if Russia doesn't come to the table and make a deal he will flood Ukraine with more weapons then ever before he did say IF Ukraine doesn't come to the table earnestly either he will cut them off.

For the most part he was saying "you two work out a deal you can live with or else I'll do this"

Comparing Ukr. so-called democracy & Syrian "dictatorship": https://youtu.be/o5oX-Bjeq1M

GarryB wrote:Putin has shifted and is not longer talking about partnership.

US and European strategic institutions are entwined. Their hegemony is symbiotic. British MI6, French DGSE & German BND have worked in total unison since the start of the Ukraine war.

European elites only pretend to be under the US’s thumb because it excuses their actions.

Some of those elites may lose power soon,as there many far right forces that r tired of being subservient to the EU/US rule, & its participation in the war in Ukraine, & that want better relations with the RF, Iran, & PRC which would lead to restoration of trade to enable them to go back to better economic times.