Russian special military operation in Ukraine #61

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
NATO could occupy russia, granted it would be costly, but we have the manpower and resources to do it. It would take a very very large army yes.

If you remove nukes from the equation, the Russians cannot defend their territory fully from just fucking ukraine, and you clowns think they can do that against NATO throwing the kitchen sink at em.

of course since they have all those Nukes, NATO will never occupy Russia and Russia will never occupy any NATO country.

You do realize genius one of the main reasons Russia went into Ukraine was to PREVENT it from joining NATO because it would then be to late and one of their demands has always been "Ukraine never joins NATO"

There is no world in which Russia is able to beat NATO in a conventional war and I am not insulting them for that, Replace the US with Rusia and would loose also because that's just waaaaay too much to fight against at once.

You have haitianiggers eating cats and dogs in your porches.

You don't even occupy your own country. Sit down.

Ugledar is ours!

Ukrops have fled

Troops are cleaning the city now - but positions surrounding are abandoned

Good job boys!

. Russian AD Will be hunted down and eliminated again, their AD cannot stop Ukraine fully, it stands no chance against NATO it would take a bit but would be done and these complex launchers are hard to replace not to mention the factories will be targeted right away. wrote:

Hunting Russian AD haha ​​you must have confused something with Iraq. And even there you didn't eliminate the AD system completely despite having information from the Germans about Iraqi AD. And now you think you'll be able to hunt several thousand SAM launchers in Russia, with the participation of a powerful ECM. With what Tomahawks? That's a joke, with airpower? At the time when the war with Russia starts from the Russian side, several thousand different types of missiles will fly at NATO targets in Europe, a large part of NATO airpower will be killed on the ground. NATO would not be able to gain air superiority over Russia. The airpower that remains would be decimated. In almost 3 years, with full NATO support, Ukraine managed to destroy maybe 20 SAM launchers, and even if 30, what percentage of Russian AD is that The only thing NATO could try to do is to saturate AD if it knew the positions well. BECAUSE in a war with NATO, optical reconnaissance and SAR satellites could fail quickly. ECM would be at full power. Russia has many more cruise missiles than the entire NATO. And now considering that NATO has very weak AD whose missiles will reach many more targets.

Belisarius wrote:Ugledar

Liberated? I am reading the main supply route has been physically cut...

Backman wrote:Has there been an official statement from the Russian govt on the Toropets strike yet ? I am skeptical of the official story. 

The damage looks on the small tactical nuke level. It completely vaporized a thick green forest. 

https://x.com/cirnosad/status/1838576347402428650?t=0XjSjbNgjSB0aiH0dsXcQA&s=19

My only issue with this is that a tactical nuke would be detected in Moscow and it would give Putin the go ahead to incinerate NATO.

And they were able to occupy only part of Russia. And where is the occupation of ALL of Russia? wrote:

And they were able to occupy only part of Russia. And where is the occupation of ALL of Russia? We must remember that today's Russia has incomparably greater capabilities for precise conventional strikes on NATO territory in Europe than the USSR. You don't even need tactical nuclear weapons to cause huge losses. Strikes on critical infrastructure, etc. and cause a huge blackout. In Ukraine, they could do the same, but they do it only partially over longer periods of time.

Something from Khairullin, to compensate for so many idiotic posts as of late:

MILITARY COMMANDER MARAT KHAIRULLIN
Marat Khairullin
Russia has done it all-on the ground and in the air
Part 1

Those who carefully read the recent analysis on our channel probably realized that dill has come to an end. And convulsions like the Kursk adventure will no longer help. The only thing that doesn't understand this is that Russian military bloggers have lost everything, as usual, but they don't count as flawed ones.
Talk that the Kursk adventure will provoke an outflow of Russian troops from the main front is outright profanity. Russia has accumulated such power that it is unlikely that with the existing resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the collective West, they will be able to organize an offensive that will force us to withdraw troops from the active front.
Mathematics is the queen of sciences, including military science, and you can't go against it. To understand this once again, let's take a different look at the Toretsk-Novgorod agglomeration.

Dill sat here so calmly because the front line was held on 10 settlements, maximally fortified, and seven large garbage cans, which were a serious problem.
(Let me remind you that Avdiivka actually fell after the capture of a single piece of trash).
Moreover, eight localities and 6 landfills are like the first, main line. The ninth (Toretsk itself) is like a near rear surrounded by waste land and these villages.
The Toretsk liberation operation began at the end of May, 4 months have passed since then, and what do we see? Eight villages and 6 waste areas were taken. The fighting is taking place in Toretsk itself. There was only one piece of trash left, though it was the largest, covering the southern flank.
At the same time, two Russian armies (the 54th Donetsk and the 3rd Luhansk) are advancing on the front line here with a maximum width of 9 kilometers at once - this is at least 10 full-fledged infantry assault divisions of high power, not counting art brigades and tanks. That is, about a division per kilometer of the front.

It is clear that I draw a simplified picture, in reality, such a density of troops means that we can conduct very high-intensity combat operations, constantly rotating personnel. Dill has no chance at all here.
Moreover, now the most fortified first line of defense of dill is taken, and our offensive is developing, for example, along the Novgorodskoe-Shcherbinovka line (this is an almost complete encirclement of Toretsk on the northern flank).
The Dill forces don't have any fortifications on this line at all - they didn't even think that we could break through to these lines. And we did not think about it because we never imagined, even in a terrible dream, that we could accumulate such a striking power at this particular turn.
They were so busy pouring their, excuse me, shitpropaganda all over the place that they believed in it themselves.

But the most interesting thing in this direction will happen when we finish Toretsk and approach two armies close to Konstantinovka on a front width of a maximum of 6 kilometers. This is important because it is a general trend.
After each of our advances, the overall front line is shrinking, and we are actually slowly squeezing the Ukrov from all sides.
Against the background of the constant increase in both the number of our troops and the overall firepower, this is the most important trend.
As for Konstantinovka, you will laugh again, but the Ukrovs also don't have any fortifications on this side, because they are...in a terrible dream... and so on. From the south-east, according to the great plan of the Ukrainian Fuhrers, Konstantinovka was reliably covered by Toretsk, and from the north-east by Chas-Yar.

This is what they call on earth. And I have repeatedly promised that I will analyze in more detail the situation in the air, that is, in our aviation. Just make a reservation, the topic is vast and also secret, so I operate only with open data, mainly Western. There can be no exact figures here, only approximate ones.
Nevertheless, the topic of aviation in assessing the effectiveness of the SVO is very important, since the state of affairs in the Air Force can be judged on the overall health of the army. Flyers are not just elite-they are a very complex type of human activity.

Part 2

For example, a priori it is considered that the most difficult type of business is air transportation: organization of flights, logistics chains, maintenance of vehicles, training of pilots and other personnel.
Not to mention, in principle, the organization of its own production of flight units.
For example, only two countries in the world are able to produce from scratch the entire range of flight units from screws to airframe and engine with a full range of weapons - this is the United States and Russia. China is still preparing to cross this border.
And the United States, apparently, is about to leave this elite club.

There is a suspicion that America has forgotten how to make engines for its main long-range bombers B-1B Lancer and B-52. And here we are for the entire range of our bombers , although with a creak in some cases, but we continue to produce.
Russia is still confidently holding on to the top, having managed not to miss a single critical competence in the 90s. This fact alone can be used to assess the viability of different countries.
The United States, despite its general well-being and the absence of internal shocks, is frankly losing one competence after another in absolutely hothouse conditions. Including in aviation. And our country, having survived the 90s, not only retained all the main groundwork, but also continues to master new technologies.
That is, the state of affairs in aviation is really an indicator of the country's combat readiness.

For example, it is estimated that the United States has about 2,200 combat aircraft. But, as they say, there are nuances. If we discard heavy bombers, transporters, and others, there are already about 1700 left. And we have 1350. It doesn't look so critical anymore.
But the situation becomes even more interesting if you dig deep.
For example, if you take such a category as" aircraft for gaining air superiority", the United States has only about 200 such aircraft. About 130 F-22s (no one knows what condition they are in) and about 80 F-15S (it is also not clear what condition they are in, because the age of the aircraft is 40+).
And Rossi, please note, has three hundred plus such planes. Moreover, evaluate the nomenclature: 130 relatively old Su-27s (age 25 +); 140 supernova Su-35s; 24 extremely new Su-57s.
220 upgraded Mig-31 high-altitude interceptors that have no analogues in the world, we will generously not mention here.

In the US army, there are about 400 F-35 supernovae with a tail. But, first of all, according to the original plan, they were supposed to enter the US Army every year 50 +. Then this indicator was lowered to 37. None has been accepted for the last two years, due to problems with the software for the latest version of the aircraft.
Planes are manufactured and they suck-they wait for IT people to finish their part.
As of 2024, Russia has put into service 24 Su-57s (a full aviation regiment consisting of two squadrons).
And in 2025, according to the plan, they should also put 24, that is, a shelf every year.
But the most important thing is not even that. Judging by the way the F-35 flies in Israel, this aircraft is able to take off only once every few days. And this is despite the fact that the Israeli air force is considered the most combat-ready in the Western bloc, and their F-35s are the most "finished" and "pumped up".

The main combat load in the US Army is carried by the F-16 aircraft (old man 40+). The hegemon has about 850 of them. It is officially known that only 40 percent of the F-16 fleet is fully operational. At the same time, the F-16 is an aircraft with a very limited range (half of our dryers), respectively, it cannot stay in the air for long.
At the same time, due to its age and technical complexity, the aircraft can make a maximum of one combat sortie per day. The norm is one flight every three days. This is roughly what we now see in Israel.

Part 3

Now compare it with our fleet. The Su-30 and Su-34 are direct analogs of the multifunctional F-16s. There are about 300 - 150 thirties and about 130 "ducklings".
Not only does the entire fleet, with the exception of those located directly at the repair plant, serve-that is, nominally 100 percent combat readiness (amers, ho-ho-ho for your 40 percent), but also for these aircraft it is considered normal for five combat sorties a day. On average, "ducklings" on the SVO show four combat sorties per day.
Let's calculate: to hell with it, let's have 200 "multi-functionals" working directly in our troops right now-multiply by five. A thousand sorties a day!

Now it is believed that our bombers on the SVO make an average of 200 sorties a day along the entire front. Rarely more than three hundred. In other words, it turns out that we are working within a quarter of our actual combat capabilities. But if you look at the dynamics, everything is going on increasing.
We should reach the peak in about six months. Just imagine-a thousand bomb sorties a day. And this is without taking into account all the other wings, and they can also contribute.
For example, the owners of Ukrainian slaves are in a panic about how our Su-57 works. This plane can stay in the air for a very long time, and due to the fact that it sees everything far away and is armed with very long-range weapons, it turns out that it is literally sitting in ambush. Not everyone knows that almost every moment of time one or two Su-57s are in the air. They guard primarily the Black Sea and, apparently, the most dangerous parts of the border and front.
Hence the unprecedented efficiency - almost any launch of Ukrop missiles from an airplane ends with the defeat of the carrier. The Amers don't have anything close to it. Compare the F-22, which needs to be prepared for departure for five days (at best, if there is an appropriate infrastructure at the base) and our supernova aircraft.
Now, following the results of the first year of full-fledged operation, it turns out that one Su-57 squadron is able to control the entire current theater of operations around the clock. And I do not remember, we already have a regiment of such miracle machines on our SVO. We'll talk about this in more detail in the following materials.

https://t.me/s/voenkorkhayrullin