The Situation in the Ukraine. #4

lol. 1200 killed is the an equivalent of the whole division wiped off the face of the earth. Methinks that the total number of killed government forces does not exceed 100. If we had large scale battles involving thousands of combatants on each side, then such a number would be possible - but there are no such fights in Ukraine, only some small scale skirmishes/ambushes + some shelling.

As Sa'iqa wrote:lol. 1200 killed is the an equivalent of the whole division wiped off the face of the earth. Methinks that the total number of killed government forces does not exceed 100. If we had large scale battles involving thousands of combatants on each side, then such a number would be possible - but there are no such fights in Ukraine, only some small scale skirmishes/ambushes + some shelling.  

More like reinforced regiment, I think.

When validating that 1200 number, I think we are overlooking one thing, quite unique to this insurgency :a pretty dense and proficient usage of artillery. That can actually do a lot of damage, even to qualitatively and quantitatively superior enemy.

Vann7 wrote:

Regular wrote:haha @ loses. It's lie. Even in Grozny assault there were fewer loses.
Check Anna news. Rebels are fighting eachother. They have their own junta, a group of them wearing white bands took over other rebel HQ.

What rebels you talk about?  Syrian war rebels fighting each other?  or you mean Donetsk Forces fighting each other?

Doneck. Not fighting, but just dealing with marauders.

I would crush their heads in with AK buttstock, bullets are too good for them. Leaving their friends to fight and die and stealing stuff. I hope they will be executed on camera.

Regular wrote:haha @ loses. It's lie. Even in Grozny assault there were fewer loses.
Check Anna news. Rebels are fighting eachother. They have their own junta, a group of them wearing white bands took over other rebel HQ.

I will not be surprised that western intelligence agencies are trying to divide the Donetsk forces ,one against the other.. or that those
stealing are pro EU undercover .ANyway the Donetsk Republic need to quickly give a formal uniform ,that nobody else have..and give it to
people they trust only and their personal information ,address ,family and phone numbers verified. Just look for example what happens in Abkhazia.. looks like another western attempt to repeatp another Ukraine.. with people taking control of buildings and demanding the president to Resign.

Photo should be from Lugansk. It seems Lugansk forces get Igla (SAM-18) MANPADs. I doubt Russian army will provide Igla-S from their stocks as they need them to replace older Strelas and Igla-1.

http://rian.com.ua/society/20140527/350864977.html

"Сегодня ночью, 27.05.2014 на нашу территорию прибыл добровольческий спецназ из дружественного государства! Количество спецназовцев огромное! Более того, на территорию "ДНР" из третьих стран прибыли переносные комплексы "Стингер", модернизированные для борьбы с самолетами, вертолетами! И теперь никакие тепловые ловушки не помогут укролетчикам!" - говорится в сообщении.

I think this must be journalist lapsus, as I doubt anyone will supply to Donetsk forces Stinger MANPADs. I wonder which could be this third country (not Russia), who send supplies to DNR and have Stingers?

As Sa'iqa wrote:lol. 1200 killed is the an equivalent of the whole division wiped off the face of the earth. Methinks that the total number of killed government forces does not exceed 100. If we had large scale battles involving thousands of combatants on each side, then such a number would be possible - but there are no such fights in Ukraine, only some small scale skirmishes/ambushes + some shelling.  

120. Is more likely . some one on the road added a zero

. The people’s mayor also noted that the self-defense forces of Slaviansk had lost about 200 people.

Unless big battle is going on and we are in the dark

medo wrote:

Photo should be from Lugansk. It seems Lugansk forces get Igla (SAM-18) MANPADs. I doubt Russian army will provide Igla-S from their stocks as they need them to replace older Strelas and Igla-1.

http://rian.com.ua/society/20140527/350864977.html

"Сегодня ночью, 27.05.2014 на нашу территорию прибыл добровольческий спецназ из дружественного государства! Количество спецназовцев огромное! Более того, на территорию "ДНР" из третьих стран прибыли переносные комплексы "Стингер", модернизированные для борьбы с самолетами, вертолетами! И теперь никакие тепловые ловушки не помогут укролетчикам!" - говорится в сообщении.

I think this must be journalist lapsus, as I doubt anyone will supply to Donetsk forces Stinger MANPADs. I wonder which could be this third country (not Russia), who send supplies to DNR and have Stingers?

haha.. Stingers missiles will be awesome.. way to in your Face to Obama and its cronies in the senate and congress that have been for 3 years supplying weapons to cannibals and terrorist in Syria to massacre thousands civilians women and children.  So hopefully some NATO members give Russia Stinger Missiles but also israeli Spike missiles.. and later pass them to the Donetsk forces..so any NATO mercenary Thug killing russians in Ukraine receive a taste of his own medicine ,when they were supplying Chechens or Afgans with their weapons against Russia .  Will be even better if the weapons comes from the ones NATO give to  Rebels in Syria as a payback.. but even more awesome if Russia start supplying americans with military grade  weapons to overthrow their government and have to deal with the same misery they provoke in the world in other nations.

on another note.. i know is wiki.. but under Igla (SA-18) they have Ukraine as operator.. so is possible Ukraine also have the missiles.. shouldn't be hard to find Ukraine Army staff , angry with their government selling weapons to the revolution in Donetsk.  Look at the picture.. Looks like children in Christmas eve.. opening their new Gifts .. LOLOLOL   

On other news.. the new president ,Poroshenko is saying that he will halt any Association with the EU (what caused the Unrest in Ukraine..  just like Yakunovych did and provoked the Unrest.   ) for fear will damage its business with russia.   

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/733971

Perhaps the EuroAsia free trade zone signed by belarus -Russia and Kazakistan have something to do..

I think everyone involved in the conflict will want to spin it their way.
What the exact figures are, we dont really know yet.
THe hohols will say that its all "easy"... or that masses of Russian troops are there.
Pro-intervention Russians will say one thing. And some Dombass will defend their side.
Then comments might be made sarcastically, converted to English and spread like wildfire amongst internet and other journalists.

Say we have seen 6 to 9 choppers shot down. Ok 1 was on the ground, others werent full. BUT that suggests *some* sophistication amongst Novorossiyans. I cant believe that all these choppers were struck but hardly any BTRs. Nor can I believe there havent been roadside bombs, ambushes etc. And operations of highly skilled ex special ops loyal to the Donbass cause. Then you may have had skirmishes between Ukrainians refusing sick orders and the Shite Sektor/Kolomoyskyi's scummy militia etc

Sadly, there will have been brave Donbass fighters who were killed in incidents we havent heard about.

So we're looking at quite considerable figures already. 1200 sounds too high, but hundreds? Not impossible if you imagine a lot of BTRs gone, relative to the chopper figure.

Chechnya was very hard for Russia to win. But losses on both sides were very very high. Fortunately Russia's military now massively better equiped. But it all illustrates how guerilla war is.

Compare this to Argentina vs Britain in the Falklands - 650 ish vs 250ish deaths. And this was involving numerous aircraft carriers and whole fleets.
THis could be a  bloody war without Russian intervention.

Igla (SAM-18) become operational in the middle of eighties in Soviet times, so there is no doubt Ukrainian army have them, although there is a question how many MANPADs remain in ukrainian arsenal after NATO Partnership for Peace program of destroying MANPADS, that they could not come to black market and into hands of terrorists. Situation is now even more absurd, as AQ terrorists now get MANPADs from NATO and Gulf monarchies in Syria.

Yes I noticed the Ukrainians have Igla too. Infact, they have pretty much everything from Russia. Perhaps a few Russian choppers should be painted in Ukrainian colours, send them over the border, attack a few Shite Sektor. And see a nice conflict between the National Guard and Shite Sektor develop.

There's lots of permutations and there's lots of things that are puzzling. I wonder how many Ukrainans have refused to fight. And I cant believe Russia has lost all influence over all key organs of power and security services.

I notice that today Donbass attacked junta fighters in Kharkov region. My view is that Right Sektor etc should be hit in Lvov etc. Lvov wont be so enthusiastic about it all, when theyre seeing their own people dying, near where they live.

ANNA news have a video coverage of the bombing in Slavianks city yesterday ..
It truly revealing ,how you can notice the people panic everyone in the city... literary Running..
to leave the city.



here is a video of apparently one of the helicopter shot down in Slavyanks..
apparently was done by a man pad.. and the impact was deadly..

https://youtu.be/OxfNqyA_YEo

here is the Ukraine army shelling the city

Vann7 wrote:OMG.. this can't be truth..    

About 1,200 Ukrainian army soldiers have been killed during a special operation in Slaviansk, and eight helicopters and 15 armored vehicles were destroyed, Slaviansk people's mayor Vyacheslav Ponomaryov said Thursday.

According to our information, the Ukrainian army has the following losses and damages: 1,200-1,300 people were killed, eight helicopters, 15 armored transport vehicles, and three [artillery] weapons destroyed. They are suffering huge losses. I’m speaking only about Slaviansk," Ponomaryov said in an interview with the Latvian radio station Baltkom.

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140529/190221116/1200-Ukrainian-Soldiers-Dead-in-Slaviansk-Special-Op--Peoples.html


How?  8 helicopters? 1200 ukrainian army soldiers? is he drunk? or thats just propaganda?
If anything of that is remotely truth , it could only be explained that they got new huge reinforcement with really good modern weapons..
and maybe perhaps they got help from Russia spetnaz forces very well armed..

If this is confirmed to be true.. it will be a major full scale war ,and hopefully all the people killed were right sector nazis.
Not even in Syria in 3 years have seen such kind of loses in just one city or its entire territory.

Oh oh here comes the Kavkaz Centre stuff

Seriously guys think for yourselves when judging reports, if it sounds bullshit and unverified - that's because it is.

New recruits arriving at Alexey Mozgovoy's camp/unit in the Lugansk region.
Apparently they were overflown by some Ukrainian air-power. They are risking a lot by staying IMO.



Some of you might recognize the guy from a video he appeared in during March, daring the authorities to come arrest him, that he is a separatist, etc...
It might also be interesting for Jippo and a few others, who were earlier asserting that the rebels came from nowhere and had to be Russian SF, etc...

The video has taken offline for 'copyright infringement' and was uploaded by another user a few weeks ago, so don't pay attention to the upload date, it is indeed from sometime in March, before the current uprising

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ABUhabiTME

I think it's possible to identify three distinct large rebel-resistance groups:

- Firstly the Slavyansk defenders, headed by Strelkov and including such celebrities as Babai the Cossack, with their political structure headed by Ponomarev. The Slavyansk defenders are actually composed of a number of different squads and detachments with various levels of experience, including a squad of local ex-Berkut members headed by an Afghan war veteran, a lesser organized/equipped group of rebels that were among the ones who initially turned up in the town, some volunteers from the Crimea and Russia, and recently some other people that have made their way into town, including new members of the South-East army/DPR self-defense forces that have signed up, with some old men and young kids armed and manning 2nd lines of defense, and some unarmed volunteers manning barricades too.
But essentially, they are more or less one big group as they have been surrounded and mostly cut-off by the Ukrainian military, the defenders of the city for the most part stay as such and there isn't much movement or exchange between them and rebels elsewhere due to their isolation. Earlier on, they were active in Kramatorsk and other nearby towns but it appears that action has shifted more to Slavyansk itself.

- Secoundly the Vostok battalion, a more cohesive unit with a tight command structure that mostly came into being roughly a month ago when volunteers broke through the Russian-Lugansk border, and it appears to have received some reinforcements since. The Vostok battallion appears to be made up of military or ex-military proffessionals and experienced fighters - ex-Ukrainian SBU and Berkut, Ossetian and Chechen volunteers, and Cossack fighters too.
The Vostok battallion is highly mobile and operates mostly in the Donetsk region, it's activities have encompassed the seizure and storming of a large amount of military bases of the Ukrainian interior ministry, NatsGuard units, military commissions offices, etc... as well as the attempted seizure of the Donetsk airport where they took heavy losses. None the less, most of their operations have concluded with hardly any casualties at all, usually ending via the surrender and disarmament of defending Ukrainian forces.

- Thirdly, Mozgovoy's group, as we've seen above - he certainly has no shortage of volunteers, and had a fair amount of people before the uprising too. How his camp is integrated with the rest of the South-East army, and his activities - I haven't heard much on - but we do know that they are based in the Lugansk region, and probably have tense ties to the rest of the rebels especially those based in Lugansk and following Bolotovs lead.

There are other groups too. Kharkov's Oplot fighters, were spotted taking over a building in Donetsk about a month ago, they have a mixed bag of armament ranging from people with shotguns to those armed with assault rifles and RPGs. But their numbers in Donetsk at least don't appear to be large.

There are other unnamed groups in the Lugansk and Donetsk regions too, some of them also made a few videos before the uprising started.
The Cossacks and ex Ukrainian security services guys who occupied the Donetsk and Lugansk regional administration buildings when the crisis started.
Other groups here and there, and the recruits for the south-east army in the Donetska and Lugansk regions, who may be sent to send to one of the existing groups/units, or formed into new ones

We also have the groups that are inactive for now. The Odessa Druzhina, and the Crimean self-defense forces come to mind.
If the conflict escelates, we will no doubt hear of them.

yeah spike missiles would be awesome assassination tool.
-covertly place ir beacon on targets vehicle with undercover agents .
-wait for signal to fire...
-???
-profit(roasted nazies)

A very good analysis by ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern on the current geo-strategic situation, the US's (and Russia's) pivot to the East, why the Ukraine mess was instigated by the US administration, and why Putin is not interfering in Ukraine at the moment.
Highly recommended.


Premature US Victory-Dancing on Ukraine
May 28, 2014

The post-coup election of a pro-Western politician as president of Ukraine
– and the escalating slaughter of lightly armed anti-coup rebels in the east –
have created a celebratory mood in Official Washington,
but the victory dance may be premature, says ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern.

CN wrote:Washington’s role in the coup d’etat in Kiev on Feb. 22 has brought the U.S. a Pyrrhic victory, with the West claiming control of Ukraine albeit with a shaky grip that still requires the crushing of anti-coup rebels in the east. But the high-fiving may be short-lived once the full consequences of the putsch become clear.

What has made the “victory” so hollow is that the U.S.-backed ouster of elected President Viktor Yanukovych presented Russia’s leaders with what they saw as a last-straw-type deceit by the U.S. and its craven satellites in the European Union. Moscow has responded by making a major pivot East to enhance its informal alliance with China and thus strengthen the economic and strategic positions of both countries as a counterweight to Washington and Brussels.

Whole article at link

As of 30/05/14, the Nazterrorists' aerial losses apparently include the following (not necessarily limited to these, of course).

1 X Mi-24P
1 X Mi-24V
1 X Mi-24, subtype unknown to me
1 X Mi-8MT
1 X Mi-8, subtype unknown to me
2 X helicopters of unknown type
1 X helicopters of unknown type on 29/05/14
1 X Mi-8MT on 29/05/14

VoR Breaking News:


Right Sector militants suspected of plotting terror acts detained in Crimea - Russia's FSB
Right Sector militants suspected of plotting terror acts detained in Crimea, according to the Russia's FSB.

Voice Of Russia

Flamming P thanks for update on structure of rebel forces.

Morpheus wrote:
the Nazterrorists' aerial losses apparently include the following (not necessarily limited to these, of course).

Thats significant helicopter losses. That guy informing about 1200 loses may not be wrong because skirmishes are happening
 everyday from past 2 months. It may be around 800 or so losses ..on the Ukr side.



Good pic of Lugansk given by Medo.. this

Medo wrote:

  At initial site although it is welcoming but..
   What I see here are just 1 IGLA (may be only one)..
  that is not enough ..
  I think Ukr forces only have IGLA old version not the igla-s versions..
  that I am sure off..
  DNR rebels need a supply of 100 igla-s to DNR forces..
   basically 50 manpads included  100 munitions(missile rounds)
  Then they can separate out like 20 launchers for donetsk  15.. for slavyansk..
  small numbers of upto 5 launchers each  also distributed equally.. in other remaining cities in kramator, andreyka..

   That would have an unprecented affect on Ukranian su25 or mi-24 gunships..
  ALthough the training required is very less but I think experience people can handle Igla in dense urban env.. and
   even with heavy surrounded gun fire..

  remembering.. evry shot from this weapon will bring a significant damage to RS and Ukranian.. air force.

   Once the airforce is grounded
   The casualties on Ukrainian side will rise significantly because of lack of air force..


      Then we are left with  predominantly 2 situations here .. with heavy artillery shelling ..
       Slavyansk ..

      Donetsk ..

But then metis-M1 will also come into picture because of this heavy artillery..
   But then Ukr forces will have no rationale to use heavy artillery.. once the air force is taken care off..  

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bo1PP_DCYAA7aHb.jpg:large

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:As of 30/05/14, the Nazterrorists' aerial losses apparently include the following (not necessarily limited to these, of course).

1 X Mi-24P
1 X Mi-24V
1 X Mi-24, subtype unknown to me
1 X Mi-8MT
1 X Mi-8, subtype unknown to me
2 X helicopters of unknown type
1 X helicopters of unknown type on 29/05/14
1 X Mi-8MT on 29/05/14

Could be easier to kick them out in their bases.
That means  that the war would be transfered back to their home.. with a lot of scicological effects .. not feeling secure at home either..
=====================================

arpakola wrote:

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:As of 30/05/14, the Nazterrorists' aerial losses apparently include the following (not necessarily limited to these, of course).

1 X Mi-24P
1 X Mi-24V
1 X Mi-24, subtype unknown to me
1 X Mi-8MT
1 X Mi-8, subtype unknown to me
2 X helicopters of unknown type
1 X helicopters of unknown type on 29/05/14
1 X Mi-8MT on 29/05/14

Could be easier to kick them out in their bases.
That means  that the war would be transfered back to their home.. with a lot of scicological effects .. not feeling secure at home either..

Depends which bases.. Because they could have mined many of their bases perimeter ,with bombs and nasty surprises and motion sensors.
Another ideal way will be to supply

1)every Donetsk force soldier on foot with an RPG-29 that is very simple to use.THose have near 800m range that is pretty decent.
2)And every small group of ~20 with a couple of Igla-manpads and a two kornet-D missile. Kornets have up to 10km range.But such weapons will make too obvious for the world that Russia is directly arming them and create problems with some of its own allies like Belarus that is against the Rebellion.

Still however they will have to deal with artillery which will over range them.. They are firing mortars from 20-30km distance, albeit is not precise ,still can cause a lot of panic in their cities and collapse all the business operations in Donetsk and paralize its economy.. that i think
is the real goal of the bombing campaign. To destroy Donetsk economy and break the civilians will and force them to leave .

"Little bit over 20" Ukrainian soldiers killed in southeast Ukraine operation - acting defense minister

Bloody liar .. 800 Ukrainian and Right sector thugs have been killed in precise operations of Donetsk militia..

Just look at the guts of this Defense ministers open lies.. lies and lies.. many huge number of western Ukrainian army
conscripts have died .. and he says only 20 killed..

Arpakola wrote:
Could be easier to kick them out in their bases.

From where are they coming is the question..

These bases having mi-24, mi-17 and su-25 are spread along the central region or near kiev..

These aircrafts(Mi-24, Mi-17 etc) are heavy duty machines and they can be flown from anywhere..
they have sufficient range to cover entire Ukraine..

These bases are difficult to locate and surround .. rebels dont have mobility.. they are not military group..

they can have mobility "within" the city itself but not outside.. thats why attacking the SU-25 , MI-24 bases is not possible..


These choppers come filled with dozen RS thugs and suddenly air drop them within minutes..
then those RS thugs cause mayhem.. around Donetsk.

Vann7 wrote:

Still however they will have to deal with artillery which will over range them.. They are firing mortars from 20-30km distance, albeit is not precise ,still can cause a lot of panic in their cities and collapse all the business operations in Donetsk and paralize its economy.. that i think
is the real goal of the bombing campaign.

This is the crux of the whole Ukranian matter ..

they have Nona -S, they are firing mortars that go totally haywire without any precision and civilians getting killed on daily basis non stop..
more economic, urban settlement destruction..

then they have towed old 152 mm guns whose precision is such that if fired for 20 kilometers it will land 3 kms away form target..
more economic, urban settlement destruction..


then they Uragan ancient missiles that also same ..  less said the better of this ..(this is real WMD) land 2-3 kms away and killing , destroying urban settlements.. indiscriminately..
The Ukr army must have some sane persons not to use these kind of weapons in Urban settlements..


The air force is the only choice of Ukr ..which has chance of hitting precisely the rebel targets.. but with great difficulty ..
because now rebels have realized this Air force factor and are takign steps.. to confront this..
and also Ukraine lost lot of air forces and hence they are hesitant in carrying large scale Donetsk Airport style attacks..
The air attack activity has decreased in last few days.. lets see.. what happens..

Thats why from last 3-4 days the artillery haywire attacks have increased a lot..  that is sad thing.

Bloody liar .. 800 Ukrainian and Right sector thugs have been killed in precise operations of Donetsk militia..

You are deluded, period Do you know what does 800 killed mean!? It is an equivalent of an entire division rendered combat ineffective. If the rebels inflicted such high losses, they would be marching on Kiev by now (considering the dismal state of the UKR army) Only an all-out battle of thousands of men can produce such a high casualty ratio. So far the separatists got a few rag-tag militias with a few thousand combat ready troops and there have not been any large scale battle, only some minor clashes with a few dead.

I would give the figure of 90-120 government killed and 100-150 rebel killed.

ukranian thugs terrorising people in East Ukraine

gaurav wrote:

"Little bit over 20" Ukrainian soldiers killed in southeast Ukraine operation - acting defense minister

Bloody liar .. 800 Ukrainian and Right sector thugs have been killed in precise operations of Donetsk militia..

Just look at the guts of this Defense ministers open lies.. lies and lies.. many huge number of western Ukrainian army
conscripts have died .. and he says only 20 killed..

Arpakola wrote:
Could be easier to kick them out in their bases.

From where are they coming is the question..

These bases having mi-24, mi-17 and su-25 are spread along the central region or near kiev..

These aircrafts(Mi-24, Mi-17 etc) are heavy duty machines and they can be flown from anywhere..
they have sufficient range to cover entire Ukraine..

These bases are difficult to locate and surround .. rebels dont have mobility.. they are not military group..

they can have mobility "within" the city itself but not outside.. thats why attacking the SU-25 , MI-24 bases is not possible..


Thats why from last 3-4 days the artillery haywire attacks have increased a lot..  that is sad thing.

teams of 3-4 people with light mortars can spread panic in air bases. And thats all is needed
The moral has to be targeted , even if the damaged HW  will not be enough to neutralise them
But they must feel unsafe back home.. day and night
=========================================
They also  have problems with troops rotation.
Well, just try to keep them sleepless and high alert for a couple of weeks, with random soft attacks during night also .. and the results will be easily seen..

lost... (guess who..)

jump mother f... jump..



=========================================

Poroshenko is thinking of demorilising the  East.. by attacking and hiting with mortars inside towns or cuting the water in Crimea

well, someone must explain to him how easy it is for Kiev to sink into darkness for a long time. U see they only worry for gaz. Have they thought their electricity grid?