The Situation in the Ukraine. #21

Khepesh wrote:Strelkov made comment on what Putin's speech at UN means for Donbass. It has been transcribed so anybody can use translator to read it. Also a photo of the original post so it can be seen it is a proper transcription. I'm not going to translate it all, only briefly say that Strelkov says that VSN is weakened and can only conduct defensive operations, and Basurin admitted this in an interview earlier, even going as far as saying that the occupied territory of DNR/LNR cannot be liberated. But Strelkov goes further and says that in event of major ukrops offensive, then VSN could only hold for a few days or maybe a week before collapsing. He is saying that Donbass has been sacrificed for Syria and that there will be Russian "boots on the ground". However, Strelkov does say that it is not to late to recover the situation in Donbass, but he is clearly very gloomy about this.
http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/905829.html

Khepesh wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

What? I thought they were saying how well armed the Novo forces were, and how they have around 30,000 men and another 30,000 reserve, and all these equipment and what not. So how would they be in worst condition than before, when they had time to dig in, build up any defenses and train the troops? Russia hasnt stopped the humantarian support and pretty sure novorussia has the money and facilities to make the ammunitions.  Add to that, Putin didnt say anything different than before other than respecting territory of Ukraine, and other countries should think about its meaning (he is regarding the color revolutions which he made quite clear).

What Strelkov and Basurin say does not necessarily indicate reality, but they have said what they have said so we listen and try to decipher the meaning. What the people of Donbass want to know is at what stage they become an independant state or a part of Russia. Minsk 2 and the words of any politician make no space for either of these two outcomes, which are the only outcomes acceptable to the people of Donbass. Minsk 2 is not independance, so everytime it is mentioned as being the only way forward, then hearts sink. If Minsk 2 means something that is not written and remains unsaid, but would be acceptable to the people of Donbass, then these semantics and diplomatic games should stop because it seems at face value that Donbass will only ever be a part of Ukraine and all the deaths in vain. There is an opinion that Putin should at least make some statement, even cryptic, that re-assures them they will never be part of Ukraine, but nothing, it simply has to be assumed that Donbass will not be merged, and belief in this assumption becomes increasingly difficult.

franco wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

What? I thought they were saying how well armed the Novo forces were, and how they have around 30,000 men and another 30,000 reserve, and all these equipment and what not. So how would they be in worst condition than before, when they had time to dig in, build up any defenses and train the troops? Russia hasnt stopped the humantarian support and pretty sure novorussia has the money and facilities to make the ammunitions.  Add to that, Putin didnt say anything different than before other than respecting territory of Ukraine, and other countries should think about its meaning (he is regarding the color revolutions which he made quite clear).

What Strelkov and Basurin say does not necessarily indicate reality, but they have said what they have said so we listen and try to decipher the meaning. What the people of Donbass want to know is at what stage they become an independant state or a part of Russia. Minsk 2 and the words of any politician make no space for either of these two outcomes, which are the only outcomes acceptable to the people of Donbass. Minsk 2 is not independance, so everytime it is mentioned as being the only way forward, then hearts sink. If Minsk 2 means something that is not written and remains unsaid, but would be acceptable to the people of Donbass, then these semantics and diplomatic games should stop because it seems at face value that Donbass will only ever be a part of Ukraine and all the deaths in vain. There is an opinion that Putin should at least make some statement, even cryptic, that re-assures them they will never be part of Ukraine, but nothing, it simply has to be assumed that Donbass will not be merged, and belief in this assumption becomes increasingly difficult.

IMO Putin supports the integrity of the Ukrainian state knowing full well that Kiev cannot not make the necessary compromises to maintain it. A win-win with Russian pushing for Ukrainian state integrity while Kiev destroys it. Western people aren't stupid and changes will come, it is already obvious even to foreign Maiden supporters and backers that there was minimum change and it is even sliding into a worse situation. Not what the people of Donbas want to hear but time will make a difference. Meanwhile their forces are strong enough to prevent a defeat but not strong enough to attack.    

mack8 wrote:Not claiming to know better than others here, but how credible is the source relaying whst apparently Strelkov said, is there a video of Strelkov saying those things?

As for VVP, have listened to his speech earlier today. From memory (not his exact words of course, but imo that seems the gist of it) he said two things regarding Uraine, first that basically the current government is the result of a foreign backed coup (read, US & cronies), secondly that the wishes and choices of the Donbass peoples must be respected. He also said that Russia will never aim to overthrow a legitimate govrenment. But, is Ukraine's government legitimate?   Everything was a diplomatic dialect of course, but all that can be interpreted in many ways, which probably is the whole point.

Still though, i do clearly remember when he said last year i think that Russia has no further territorial interests in Ukraine. What does that really means, i don't know. Maybe this mean Donbass can't be a part of Russia, but that doesn't mean there aren't other ways to secure it's autonomy, de facto or not from the rest of Ukraine. Other pointed out that perhaps one possible goal (if achievable) is to have an autonomous Donbass, but still nominally part of Ukraine, to be able to control it's "direction" so to speak, the back-up plan being Donbass independence if the rest of the Orcland cannot be stopped to become a NATO base.

Erk wrote:Yats calls on UN to cancel Russia's veto power.

franco wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

What? I thought they were saying how well armed the Novo forces were, and how they have around 30,000 men and another 30,000 reserve, and all these equipment and what not. So how would they be in worst condition than before, when they had time to dig in, build up any defenses and train the troops? Russia hasnt stopped the humantarian support and pretty sure novorussia has the money and facilities to make the ammunitions.  Add to that, Putin didnt say anything different than before other than respecting territory of Ukraine, and other countries should think about its meaning (he is regarding the color revolutions which he made quite clear).

What Strelkov and Basurin say does not necessarily indicate reality, but they have said what they have said so we listen and try to decipher the meaning. What the people of Donbass want to know is at what stage they become an independant state or a part of Russia. Minsk 2 and the words of any politician make no space for either of these two outcomes, which are the only outcomes acceptable to the people of Donbass. Minsk 2 is not independance, so everytime it is mentioned as being the only way forward, then hearts sink. If Minsk 2 means something that is not written and remains unsaid, but would be acceptable to the people of Donbass, then these semantics and diplomatic games should stop because it seems at face value that Donbass will only ever be a part of Ukraine and all the deaths in vain. There is an opinion that Putin should at least make some statement, even cryptic, that re-assures them they will never be part of Ukraine, but nothing, it simply has to be assumed that Donbass will not be merged, and belief in this assumption becomes increasingly difficult.

IMO Putin supports the integrity of the Ukrainian state knowing full well that Kiev cannot not make the necessary compromises to maintain it. A win-win with Russian pushing for Ukrainian state integrity while Kiev destroys it. Western people aren't stupid and changes will come, it is already obvious even to foreign Maiden supporters and backers that there was minimum change and it is even sliding into a worse situation. Not what the people of Donbas want to hear but time will make a difference. Meanwhile their forces are strong enough to prevent a defeat but not strong enough to attack.