PLA Navy and Naval Air Force

R u saying that conventional warheads won't fit on IC/SLBMs, besides SLCMs? China may announce their planned use just like NK did with regard to Guam. Forget about N. Caledonia, just hitting Tahiti will be enough to do unacceptable damage.

Tsavo Lion wrote:R u saying that conventional warheads won't fit on IC/SLBMs, besides SLCMs? China may announce their planned use just like NK did with regard to Guam. Forget about N. Caledonia, just hitting Tahiti will be enough to do unacceptable damage.

New Caledonia is 8000km from Mainland China, they won't be putting conventional warheads on their big ICBMs. They cost over $100 million each. China's cruise missile capability is based on their license to produce early generation Microturbo TRI 60. China has been unable to develop their turbofan technology to come up with a minaturised version for cruise missiles. The range of it is not far so the launching ships would be easily spotted.

How do u know that they won't put conventional warheads on those BMs? They don't need to be high explosives: it's enough to hit fuel/weapons storage areas, air/naval bases, barracks, & power plants with them. It's a terror weapon that can paralyse life on those islands. From the mainland PRC, the French Polynesia is closer than the USA; they can use older ICBMs &/ SLBMs fired from the SC Sea.

DF-31 (CSS-09) is China's newest road-mobile, solid-fuel ICBM developed by the 4th Aerospace Academy (now ARMT). The DF-31 has range of 8,000+ km, and can carry a single 1,000 kt warhead, or up to three 20-150 kt MIRV warheads. An improved version, the DF-31A, has range of 11,000+ km. The DF-31 was developed to replace many of China's older ballistic missiles, and served as basis to the new JL-2 (CSS-NX-4/CSS-NX-5) SLBM. In 2009, approx. 30 DF-31/DF-31A are estimated to be in service; it is possible this number may have increased since then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dongfeng_(missile)#Dongfeng_31_(CSS-09)

JL-2 Operational range 7400-8000 km (estimated)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JL-2

CJ-10 Operational range >1,500 km (930 mi; 810 nmi)
Launch platform Type 093G submarine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CJ-10_(missile)

In WWII, Japanese & German subs operated in the Indian & S. Pacific Ocean- the Chinese could also use their quiet SSKs there, together with better armed SSNs.

Tsavo Lion wrote:How do u know that they won't put conventional warheads on those BMs? They don't need to be high explosives: it's enough to hit fuel/weapons storage areas, air/naval bases, barracks, & power plants with them. It's a terror weapon that can paralyse life on those islands. From the mainland PRC, the French Polynesia is closer than the USA; they can use older ICBMs &/ SLBMs fired from the SC Sea.

If China starts launching ballistic missiles in the direction of Australia the US will assume they are nuclear and will launch a real nuclear strike on China. The Chinese are not so foolish to try that much less waste missiles meant for their nuclear deterrent. The Chinese already have Vanuatu in a debt trap so it looks like their future base will be there.

That's why they won't target New Caledonia, only Tahiti that is farther away to the East. The US NORAD EW satellites will detect BM launches & calculate impact zones in minutes. China may notify the US & Russia of impending strikes. They don't need to use many BMs to make France's life miserable there. That threat alone may dissuade the FN from getting to deeply involved in the SC Sea.


1-2 Shang SSNs may be used to strike more targets or if BMs miss/fail to destroy theirs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shang-class_submarine#Variants

Their 12 Kilos may also carry Kalibr / Club land-attack cruise missiles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilo-class_submarine

No need for surface ships to expose themselves there.

Tsavo Lion wrote:That's why they won't target New Caledonia, only Tahiti that is farther away to the East. The US NORAD EW satellites will detect BM launches & calculate impact zones in minutes. China may notify the US & Russia of impending strikes. They don't need to use many BMs to make France's life miserable there. That threat alone may dissuade the FN from getting to deeply involved in the SC Sea.


1-2 Shang SSNs may be used to strike more targets or if BMs miss/fail to destroy theirs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shang-class_submarine#Variants

Their 12 Kilos may also carry Kalibr / Club land-attack cruise missiles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilo-class_submarine

No need for surface ships to expose themselves there.

Tahiti could be a stopover point for French forces into the region but it would be New Caledonia as their primary base of operations. That wouldn't be a strategic enough target to use ICBMs capped with conventional warheads. The US might initially think they were launching at Pearl Harbour until they got into the atmosphere to analyse an accurate trajectory. All of that is too risky for China to have a misunderstanding with the US nuclear arsenal pointed at it. The French have access to the same information with their own nuclear arsenal, China wouldn't go the ballistic missile route except for Taiwan, there is no misunderstanding there.

There is not much the PLAN's Kilos can do as they have not been overhauled since their induction. The government stripped several of them down for reverse engineering purposes and didn't install the adequate training of crews to maintain them. At a certain point they have to come back to Russia which that date has long passed. China also never bought the missile package which would be on option as part of their overhaul. They only used them to copy the technology and put it into their own submarines which have suffered serious setbacks.

To copy Kilos, u don't need to buy 12 of them; they may have modified some to carry SLCMs.
In any case, their Shang SSNs can attack New Caledonia if indeed it's so important to the French. The US knows that the PRC isn't crazy to nuke them over the SC Sea issue & risk their retaliation in kind.
The PLAN may also send a few warships or even a CBG to the S. Pacific to try to draw the FN away from the SC Sea. The Pakistanis may also show the flag near some French islands in the Indian Ocean.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_French_islands_in_the_Indian_and_Pacific_oceans#Indian_Ocean

The RF may share intel. on the FN movements with China. The PLA would love to target the French CSG with its BMs & show the USN that it can be done. Welcome to the small world!

Tsavo Lion wrote:To copy Kilos, u don't need to buy 12 of them; they may have modified some to carry SLCMs.
In any case, their Shang SSNs can attack New Caledonia if indeed it's so important to the French. The US knows that the PRC isn't crazy to nuke them over the SC Sea issue & risk a retaliation.
The PLAN may also send a few warships or a CBG to the S. Pacific to try to draw the FN away from the SC Sea. The Pakistanis may also be asked to show the flag near some French islands in the Indian Ocean.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_French_islands_in_the_Indian_and_Pacific_oceans#Indian_Ocean

The RF may share intel. on the FN movements with the PRC.
The PLA would love to use a French CSG as a target for their BMs & show the USN that it can be done. Welcome to the small world!

After they cancelled the contract for Sukhoi we became well aware of their plans to copy our equipment so we initiated the policy that they must buy a minimum order worth their IP infringement and that they cannot sell anything based on our technology abroad. To do so would put access to our products at risk.

The Shang class are easily detected like all of their nuclear boats but if the French aren't running search patterns they could sneak in there to launch some missiles. The only video I have seen of the CJ-10 is mixed with footage of the Tomahawk and Scalp missile test footage so I doubt it is much tested from naval platforms. If so the range will be much reduced based on their lack of progress in miniaturised turbofans. It would be powered by something of the TRI 60 early generation. I think the range of Babur is close to what you can expect out of the range of Chinese cruise missiles.

Yes, PLAN sending an SAG to the island is a very real threat and if France is not prepared with its aviation assets it could have their bases destroyed before they are ready. They do have A400M that can transport some of the equipment in short time and it would take a couple weeks for the Chinese to get down there.

I am still waiting to see the test footage of their ICBM that can hit a carrier. It sounds like part of that paper tiger thing we were discussing before.

Russia may also warn against the FN engaging the PRC in the SC Sea by announcing that her subs & ships will patrol there &/ near the French islands in Indo-Pacific & threaten the use of Poseidon: http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/206308/?utm_source=24smi&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=1302&utm_content=1762891&utm_campaign=573

Would the FN take their chances against still untested BMs? They don't have to be accurate- an EMP burst high above it is all that's needed to disable its CSG electronics & mission kill it. Asymmetric response!

Tsavo Lion wrote:Russia may also warn against the FN engaging the PRC in the SC Sea by announcing that her subs & ships will patrol there &/ near the French islands in Indo-Pacific & threaten the use of Poseidon: http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/206308/?utm_source=24smi&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=1302&utm_content=1762891&utm_campaign=573

Would the FN take their chances against still untested BMs? They don't have to be accurate- an EMP burst high above it is all that's needed to disable its CSG electronics & mission kill it. Asymmetric response!

Would we aid China in an expansionist policy? I highly doubt that, if they are expanding that way it might give them ideas to go in other directions.

The Marine Nationale already took its chances by sailing their Joan of Ark training mission with a Mistral and escort frigate recently. The Chinese didn't do anything as expected. I don't think anyone but US scaremongers take that carrier killing ICBM as an operational threat. There is no evidence it has been tested on a vessel of any kind where something like that would take dozens of live tests to gain IOC.

China is securing her SLOCs & the coast to ensure her economy doesn't suffer from Western interference. The SC Sea is the shortest way between Black Sea, Med. Sea, Indian Ocean & Vladivostok. If there's an ongoing conflict, the Malacca Strait may be is blocked, & the SLOCs there will become severed & unsafe. Neutral countries naval traffic will have to avoid them also. China's domination in the SC Sea is in RF interests as they r de-facto allies against NATO & Japan.
China will do everything to avoid antagonizing Russia as it's in the US & Japan interests to split them apart. W/o Russian neutrality or support, China won't be able to effectively face the US. A similar thing happened during the Cold War: China & USA improved their relations & together put more pressure on the USSR.

The Marine Nationale already took its chances by sailing their Joan of Ark training mission with a Mistral and escort frigate recently. The Chinese didn't do anything as expected.

In a real hot crisis, I doubt that China will sit with folded arms; the French & perhaps some others will get a bloody nose!

Tsavo Lion wrote:China is securing her SLOCs & the coast to ensure her economy doesn't suffer from Western interference. The SC Sea is the shortest way between Black Sea, Med. Sea, Indian Ocean & Vladivostok. If there's an ongoing conflict, the Malacca Strait may be is blocked, & the SLOCs there will become severed & unsafe. Neutral countries naval traffic will have to avoid them also. China's domination in the SC Sea is in RF interests as they r de-facto allies against NATO & Japan.
China will do everything to avoid antagonizing Russia as it's in the US & Japan interests to split them apart. W/o Russian neutrality or support, China won't be able to effectively face the US. A similar thing happened during the Cold War: China & USA improved their relations & together put more pressure on the USSR.

In a real hot crisis, I doubt that China will sit with folded arms; the French & perhaps some others will get a bloody nose!

Or you could just cut through Jakarta and go around the Philippines, it isn't that much further to avoid the South China Sea.  The entire region is surrounded by potential enemies that there is no way China could secure it.  

In a real hot crisis I doubt France would get so close to Mainland China without taking those atoll island bases out first.  Since their carrier has catapults and buddy refueling they could do it out of the reach of most Chinese aviation, not to mention 1000km range cruise missiles.

The area can be avoided with only 3% increase in shipping costs but the US, UK, & France want it to be open & free to their naval navigation, which China, having been attacked & invaded by sea, objects to.
I doubt France &/ UK will try to take any islands there w/o a green light from the US, which needs PRC's & RF help with NK. If they do it over the US objections, China & Russia will assume that they had a green light anyway. As the conflict escalates, the US & Japan will have to get involved. If it was that simple, the US would have tried it by now.
I never heard of any problems/test failures with Chinese LACMs:
https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/china/lacm.htm

https://plarealtalk.com/chinese-navy-vls-75c0de25545d

China also needs to outflank Taiwan & prevent the SC Sea being used to help it in any conflict. There r also sizable resources: fish, natural gas, & oil.

Chinese military planners view LACMs as particularly effective against targets requiring precision accuracy (for example, airfield hangars and command and control facilities). They also view large-salvo attacks by LACMs and ballistic missiles as the best means to overwhelm enemy missile defenses.
Chinese planners emphasize the shock and paralytic effects of combined ballistic and LACM attacks against enemy airbases, which could greatly increase the effectiveness of follow-on aircraft strikes. These effects depend significantly on the number of launchers available to deliver missiles. China currently has between 255 and 305 ballistic missile and LACM launchers within range of Taiwan, which are capable of delivering sustained pulses of firepower against a number of critical airfields, missile defense sites, early warning radars, command and control facilities, logistical storage sites, and critical civilian infrastructure such as electrical distribution. http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/Article/577568/a-potent-vector-assessing-chinese-cruise-missile-developments/

The same principle would apply to attacking the French islands.

I don't think anyone but US scaremongers take that carrier killing ICBM as an operational threat. There is no evidence it has been tested on a vessel of any kind where something like that would take dozens of live tests to gain IOC.

For targeting CVNs, shorter range IRBMs r needed, not ICBMs with their huge range. They did test hitting simulated CVN flight deck on land. The main thing is their detection & terminal guidance; even at 45kts, it won't get too far by the time a BM arrives in 20 min. max.
China & RF now have OHRs that can detect CSGs &/ their aircraft.
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chinas-anti-carrier-ballistic-missile-now-opposite-taiwan-bloomberg.247229/

Tsavo Lion wrote:The area can be avoided with only 3% increase in shipping costs but the US, UK, & France want it to be open & free to their naval navigation, which China, having been attacked & invaded by sea, objects to.
I doubt France &/ UK will try to take any islands there w/o a green light from the US, which needs PRC's & RF help with NK. If they do it over the US objections, China & Russia will assume that they had a green light anyway. As the conflict escalates, the US & Japan will have to get involved. If it was that simple, the US would have tried it by now.
I never heard of any problems/test failures with Chinese LACMs:

I don't see any reason why France would need to take any of the islands, they can easily destroy them with cruise missiles or air strikes.

I never heard of a successful cruise missile strike by China that didn't have a radar reflector on it. I have heard of dozens of French cruise missile strikes launched from both sea and air used in live combat.

The same principle would apply to attacking the French islands.

French possessions are well out of range so it only applies to Taiwan.

For targeting CVNs, shorter range IRBMs r needed, not ICBMs with their huge range. They did test hitting simulated CVN flight deck on land. The main thing is their detection & terminal guidance; even at 45kts, it won't get too far by the time a BM arrives in 20 min. max.

Don't link to other forums. Hitting a stationary target in an uncluttered environment is far different than hitting a moving target in a dense electronic environment. The thing about a ballistic missile is the trajectory is fixed. If it isn't in the expected kill zone then too bad. Another question would be guidance, if it is radar guided it would be easy to jam. It couldn't be electro-optically guided as the warhead would suffer carbon scarring coming through the atmosphere leaving it blind. If they haven't tested it on the water it isn't operational, that much is certain.

I don't see any reason why France would need to take any of the islands, they can easily destroy them with cruise missiles or air strikes.

Not if Chinese SSN/Ks/H-6Ks get close enough to their CSG. 1 torpedo explosion under a CVN will detonate all the bombs & missiles stored below its decks; AShMs hitting radars, the island & the flight deck will shot down all fighter flight ops.

French possessions are well out of range so it only applies to Taiwan.

For those targets, ICBMs & SLCMs could be used, as I wrote before.

I think the shackles holding New Caledonia back are its dependence on French transfers to the island amounting to 14% of GDP.

Transfers going to the white french portion of the population no doubt... nickle is a valuable commodity... countries and companies will be lining up if the French get the boot... it all comes down to who is in power... if it is greedy french people then the situation probably wont change much except they might open up to local trading to reduce the cost of living and more of the people there will be able to live a better life.

Of course if it is greedy natives that take power they might be worse than the french... but there is also a possibility of leadership that actually cares for the people that ensure a much better future for the people... but lets not go all disney about this...

If the French pull out the schools and public services lose their funding.

They could nationalise the nickle mines and they could use that to pay for everything... Plus they could offer tourism to more than just French people...

I come from a country that was colonised and I have heard it all... without us they would not even speak english... we fund this and we fund that... we also screwed the locals big time because the things they valued was not what everyone else on the planet values and we know it and they didn't when all the deals were signed.

African miners in Chinese controlled mines only make a couple dollars an hour.

In dutch or belgian mine they would be getting a couple of dollars a day... and more of them would be dying a day too.

R u saying that conventional warheads won't fit on IC/SLBMs, besides SLCMs? China may announce their planned use just like NK did with regard to Guam. Forget about N. Caledonia, just hitting Tahiti will be enough to do unacceptable damage.

They would have the accuracy of a Scud... CEP of several thousands of metres... not accurate enough to target anything in particular...

It would be more cost effective to send them 100 million dollars and ask them to blow something up themselves...

GarryB wrote:Transfers going to the white french portion of the population no doubt... nickle is a valuable commodity... countries and companies will be lining up if the French get the boot... it all comes down to who is in power... if it is greedy french people then the situation probably wont change much except they might open up to local trading to reduce the cost of living and more of the people there will be able to live a better life.

Of course if it is greedy natives that take power they might be worse than the french... but there is also a possibility of leadership that actually cares for the people that ensure a much better future for the people... but lets not go all disney about this...

The transfers are for the education and public service funding.   In theory it should benefit all of the people... in theory.

If one looks across to the nearest island chain with a similar population with native rule one need look no farther than Vanautu.  With a per capita income of what someone on minimum wage makes in a month on New Caledonia they are not anything to be envied.  

They could nationalise the nickle mines and they could use that to pay for everything... Plus they could offer tourism to more than just French people...

I come from a country that was colonised and I have heard it all... without us they would not even speak english... we fund this and we fund that... we also screwed the locals big time because the things they valued was not what everyone else on the planet values and we know it and they didn't when all the deals were signed.

The price of nickle has crashed from $37k to $13k over the last decade with a low of $10k.  It averages about 6-7% of GDP which is half of what France pays.  The Kanak people own a 51% stake in the biggest mine at Koniambo and smaller stakes in the smaller mines so it isn't like the natives don't have any ownership.  If the Chinese come in there I doubt they will let them own anything.  If they let the Kanak take full ownership they won't have the resources to mine it themselves.  The deposits are getting very deep and less dense meaning more advanced mining methods required to extract it.  They don't have that expertise so they would have to sell stakes to get an arrangement like they already have.      

African miners in Chinese controlled mines only make a couple dollars an hour.

[In dutch or belgian mine they would be getting a couple of dollars a day... and more of them would be dying a day too.

Conditions appear to be much better than that in NC mines.  A new miner at Koniambo makes $150 a day, people are flooding from all over the region to work them.

They would have the accuracy of a Scud... CEP of several thousands of metres... not accurate enough to target anything in particular...

Even if true, they'll still deny them peace. Ask Israelis about their life during the the Desert Storm.

While lacking the range of the DF-21D 'carrier killer,' a satellite guided ballistic missile which revolutionised Chinese A2AD capabilities in the South China Sea, the YJ-12 is set to seriously complicate Western military operations in the region.
More recently, the YJ-12 has been developed into a land based variant, the YJ-12A, which is equipped with an additional rocket booster for initial acceleration. This is necessary as it lacks to kinetic energy imparted to it by aircraft and the initial altitude that air launched variants have. A second land based variant, the YJ-12B, has also been developed, and both these missile platforms are ideal for a coastal defence role. Reports that the YJ-12 has recently been deployed to Chinese military outposts in the South China Sea, alongside advanced HQ-9B surface to air missile platforms which serve a complementary role by denying access to the airspace 300 km around PLA facilities, is set to prove a major asset to enhance China’s maritime security. The deployment of advanced J-11B heavy fighters, which alongside an air superiority role to complement the HQ-9 can also potentially carry out a ship hunting role when equipped with air launched variants of the YJ-12, is set to further strengthen the PLA’s ability to defend its interests in the South China Sea. With China's outposts growing, and having been compared by a number of analysts to immobile defensive aircraft carriers, they remain a cost effective way of denying the forces of the Western bloc access to waters which China claims as its own. http://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/70575

Operational range 250–400 km (160–250 mi; 130–220 nmi)  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YJ-12

More on USA-PRC-Russia triangle: https://ria.ru/analytics/20180730/1525561054.html?recommend=b

Tsavo Lion wrote:Not if Chinese SSN/Ks/H-6Ks get close enough to their CSG. 1 torpedo explosion under a CVN will detonate all the bombs & missiles stored below its decks; AShMs hitting radars, the island & the flight deck will shot down all fighter flight ops.

For those targets, ICBMs & SLCMs could be used, as I wrote before.

The French CSG will have Advanced Hawkeye flying over the fleet so there is little chance aviation assets will be able to get in range before they are engaged. The French ASW is strong, FREMM has the CAPTAS 4 which is considered the best towed sonar in the world. Even the US, UK, Australia and Italy along with a dozen other countries has selected it for their upcoming ships. They have NH-90 with the best dipping sonar, they would have a couple SSNs roving around the fleet for protection. The ATL2s could also get involved if they are within range. Japan has proven time and time again Chinese submarines are noisy, they honestly wouldn't stand a chance against the French level of ASW. China has some of our old super sonic ASMs they were trying to copy but I never saw anything come out of that. The stocks they had were never replenished and long past their useful life.

The best asset China has to engage a French CSG is the Su-30MKK. It has recently been stocked with 200 Kh-59MK with a range of 285km. The downside is they never replenished their stocks of R-77E and rely on the SD-10 as their primary BVRAAM. This has the same seeker as the R-77 but uses an inferior motor with reduced range and speed. Launching salvos of Kh-59MK is really their only chance to get off air launched ordinance before a Meteor comes slamming into their aircraft. This is what will put the Aster PAAMs defences to the test.

ICBMs will not be used for the reasons I and Garry have said before. SLCMs will not be used because their submarines are too noisy to go anywhere without being tracked. The Kilos they have are in complete disrepair as well as the aged weapon stocks they bought for it 15 years ago and never replenished.

The French CSG will have Advanced Hawkeye flying over the fleet so there is little chance aviation assets will be able to get in range before they are engaged.
SLCMs will not be used because their submarines are too noisy to go anywhere without being tracked.

The J-20 &/ S-400/500 SAMs r going to take them out.
SSBNs don't need to leave the vicinity of their base on Hainan to strike the French islands, JL-2 range is sufficient (see the links I posted).
The Chinese r good at hiding their deficiencies & capabilities. But just not knowing what they really have for sure doesn't mean that what we know they do have is all they really have.
In their martial arts, a fighter would always have a hidden secret weapon &/ skill/strategy/technique to be used at the right moment should all the other means used up to that point fail. The same thing is with their military. It's in line with the Sun Tzu's The Art of War.
The French r so smart, but they lost at Tiem Ban Phu after the Vietnamese unexpectedly put their cannons on mountaintops.

Tsavo Lion wrote:
The J-20 &/ S-400/500 SAMs r going to take them out.
SSBNs don't need to leave the vicinity of their base on Hainan to strike the French islands, JL-2 range is sufficient (see the links I posted).
The Chinese r good at hiding their deficiencies & capabilities. But just not knowing what they really have for sure doesn't mean that what we know they do have is all they really have.
In their martial arts, a fighter would always have a hidden secret weapon &/ skill/strategy/technique to be used at the right moment should all the other means used up to that point fail. The same thing is with their military. It's in line with the Sun Tzu's The Art of War.
The French r so smart, but they lost at Tiem Ban Phu after the Vietnamese unexpectedly put their cannons on mountaintops.

The J-20 is nothing as of now and according to Russian analysis will be nothing in the future. The French have shown the ability to avoid detection by S-400 during the raid in Syria. If China launches a JL-2 at a French possession France will nuke China back to the stone age if the US doesn't do it first.

It actually doesn't benefit you to hide your capabilities when you are trying to project an appearance of power to get what you want by intimidation. It does benefit you to be a paper tiger.

The CCP did away with Sun Tzu and Confucius teachings long ago. They burned those books as well as the rest of their cultural history.

I think France lost 20,000 nationals during the Indochine war over the course of a decade, China lost more than that in a few months. Just remember to compare the same thing.

If China launches a JL-2 at a French possession France will nuke China back to the stone age if the US doesn't do it first.

They have a special BM against carriers. Launching many of them should allow at least one hit against any carrier. At least one will do a mission kill. It's not because chinese technology is inferior than western that it is useless.

Using a nuclear missile against an island you want to take is just stupid and puting a conventional warehead is useless as garry said the precision is very bad.

Many analysts compare chinese nuclear arsenal to france UK and israel. I would compare it to US and Russia. They have invested a lot of money in many design and they also successfully tested hypersonic missiles.

The thousands of factories producing basically everything for all the world in China could build million of missiles per month if they convert them.

US would never do a nuclear war with china for a french carrier or island full of poor people. The scenario here is the french carrier attacking chinese for some islands. I would add the exemple of soviets asking them to nuk china after the border clashes but it seems to be US stupid propaganda.

Isos wrote:

They have a special BM against carriers. Launching many of them should allow at least one hit against any carrier. At least one will do a mission kill. It's not because chinese technology is inferior than western that it is useless.

As we discussed before, there has been no testing of it on a static target on water much less a moving a target on water much less a moving target in a cluttered environment on water.  Such things must be tested befor a weapon achieves operational capability.  Hitting a parking lot in a desert doesn't qualify.

Using a nuclear missile against an island you want to take is just stupid and puting a conventional warehead is useless as garry said the precision is very bad.

On this we agree.

Many analysts compare chinese nuclear arsenal to france UK and israel. I would compare it to US and Russia. They have invested a lot of money in many design and they also successfully tested hypersonic missiles.

China has invested heavily in SRBM and MRBMs but not much into the ICBM category. Of course no one wants to risk them using it but the US could easily wipe out China with only a few cities destroyed in the process.  It is not like going to war with us where the entire world is destroyed 10X over again.

The thousands of factories producing basically everything for all the world in China could build million of missiles per month if they convert them.

There are many things China could spend its resources on but doesn't, the economy is more important to the social order than missiles.  

US would never do a nuclear war with china for a french carrier or island full of poor people. The scenario here is the french carrier attacking chinese for some islands. I would add the exemple of soviets asking them to nuk china after the border clashes but it seems to be US stupid propaganda.

The US might not start a nuclear war over a French carrier but the French certainly would.  With enough nukes to depopulate the coastal zones of China they might think twice about tossing ICBMs at them.  De Gaulle demanded France maintain an independent nuclear deterrent so they could never be pushed around again.

If China launches a JL-2 at a French possession France will nuke China back to the stone age if the US doesn't do it first.
It actually doesn't benefit you to hide your capabilities when you are trying to project an appearance of power to get what you want by intimidation. It does benefit you to be a paper tiger.
The CCP did away with Sun Tzu and Confucius teachings long ago. They burned those books as well as the rest of their cultural history.

Using non-nuclear BMs in S. Pacific is not the same as striking France in Europe. I don't think Paris & Lyon r worth all those islands; for if France &/ US nuke China, the PLA will have the means to retaliate in kind.  
China likes to use "soft power"; brandishing weapons & needlessly provoking others isn't in their Confucian influenced culture:

“When one by force subdues men, they do not submit to him in heart” said Mencius, one of the great Confucian thinkers. “When one subdues men by virtue, in their hearts’ core they are pleased, and sincerely submit."
China had the military and economic power to force its neighbors to kowtow, of course. But for the most part, the emperors showed restraint. From the founding of the Ming Dynasty in 1368 to the first Opium War of the 1840s, China invaded an East Asian state only once (an ultimately disastrous 15th-century push into Vietnam), notes David Kang, author of “East Asia Before the West.” In response, the other East Asian countries generally accepted Chinese hegemony; Japan’s ill-fated invasion of Korea in the 1590s was the only overt attempt to challenge Chinese supremacy in that entire period. ..Emperors often bestowed gifts on foreign embassies worth more to their vassals than the tributes they received. Occasionally, they made concessions when they didn’t have to. In 1725, when Vietnam moved part of its border about 40 miles north into Chinese territory to claim copper mines, the Qing emperor decided to compromise, leaving a majority of the land in Vietnamese hands.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-21/xi-needs-a-confucian-foreign-policy

China's Revival of Confucianism
https://china.usc.edu/chinas-revival-confucianism

China's new-found love for Confucius
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/03/china-love-confucius-170328144603740.html

Confucianism in China Today
https://www2.kenyon.edu/Depts/Religion/Fac/Adler/Writings/Confucianism%20Today.pdf

Xi Jinping endorses the promotion of Confucius
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1603487/xi-jinping-endorses-promotion-confucius

For the government, the promotion of Confucian values has several advantages. Domestically, the affirmation of harmony is meant to reflect the ruling party's concern for all classes. Threatened by rural discontent - according to official figures, there were 87,000 illegal disturbances last year - the government realizes that it needs to do more for those bearing the brunt of China's development. Internationally, the call for peace and harmony is meant to disarm fears about China's rapid rise. ..Confucians favor rule by moral example and oppose the use of force to promote morality. Hence, Confucian intellectuals were severely critical of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. But here, too, interpretations of Confucianism may diverge from official ones. The idea that Taiwan should be reintegrated into the mainland by being threatened with invasion and bloodshed is far removed from Confucian ideals. https://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/14/opinion/14iht-edbell.2807200.html

Even though Mao's Cultural Revolution changed them, the Dao is still followed- otherwise they wouldn't have been replacing the top leaders every 10 years since Deng.

The government of President Xi Jinping has been promoting traditional Chinese culture and religions. And you see that he has officially, sort of, endorsed Confucianism and has said nice things about Buddhism, and Daoism also as a traditional Chinese religion is more favored. More money is flowing to temples. It’s easier to get permits to build. It’s really on the upswing in China. ..
A lot of people, especially after 35 years of growing prosperity, are interested in wellness and taking care of their health and their body. And these practices, which in Chinese are called yang-sheng, these are primarily Daoist. So, Daoist temples are offering courses in wellness, health, nutrition, meditation, tai chi, and things like that. So, I really think Daoism is slowly finding a foothold in modern China. https://www.pri.org/stories/2015-01-30/daoism-gains-foothold-again-china

I visited the PRC back in 2002 & can assure u that it's true.

Tsavo Lion wrote:

Using non-nuclear BMs in S. Pacific is not the same as striking France in Europe. I don't think Paris & Lyon r worth all those islands; for if France &/ US nuke China, the PLA will have the means to retaliate in kind.  

China likes to use "soft power"; brandishing weapons & needlessly provoking others isn't in their Confucian influenced culture:


Even though Mao's Cultural Revolution changed them, the Dao is still followed- otherwise they wouldn't have been replacing the top leaders every 10 years since Deng.

I visited the PRC back in 2002 & can assure u that it's true.

The French won't know that the ICBMs being launched are not nuclear and they won't wait for them to hit to launch a counter attack.  All of China's Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities will be engulfed in fireballs within 30 minutes.  If anyone is going to mess with France they won't be using anything that could even appear like a nuclear attack.  

Considering China hasn't used hard power since 1979, I agree with that but it isn't based on Confucious, it is based on Deng Xiaoping's Gaige Kaifang.

If you watch little kids getting run over in the street and no one helps you see how much the Dao is still followed.  The Chinese have lost their souls.  

I have been to the PRC a dozen times, I would walk by a guy laying dead on the sidewalk and people are just stepping over him like he isn't even there.  These people are morally absent and only driven by greed.  It is no society anyone should emulate.